Posts by wiredseal7

analogbear5 said:The poor cartel is being manipulated by the market. Poor little guys.

Just pointing out that Americans love to play hypocrite—accusing OPEC+ of exactly what they've been doing themselves for the last six months—while calling it something completely different.

George Robinson43 said:Given the record-breaking profits Aramac has seen, I suspect they'll hold off on any significant production cuts until oil hits a truly ridiculous price level.

Just wait until we see what happens to those Saudi profits once the mid-terms roll around and the US finishes dumping its strategic reserves—pure market manipulation, really.

Ever since they started that mess in Yemen back in 2015, nobody's even blinked—meanwhile, Mohammed bin Salman and his billionaire buddies over in the West are basically getting rolled out the red carpet.

analogbear5 said:Exactly.

The reason you haven't seen it mentioned is because this sub-forum is specifically for the Ukraine war.

Yeah, I click through every other day, but I just don't catch the name.

The point stands—this thread is about sanctions on Russia. Threatening sanctions against the Saudi crew and the rest of the oil cartel falls under the umbrella of Russian-related sanctions here—since they weren't meddling so openly in OPEC decisions before—so we aren't even off-topic.

Just a reminder that Trump dodged implementing an arms embargo after the Kashoggi incident; those oil money interests were breathing down his neck, so he just waited for the heat to die down.
I wouldn't expect anything different now, because let's be real—nobody is immune to that kind of cash.

And while America does its usual thing with threats, Russian firms kicked out of the West by sanctions are just pivoting to markets like Saudi Arabia and tightening their grip:
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2175786/business-economy

Christian Torres3 said:Exactly how it should be.

Look, Essam, it's not even about oil production—everyone’s got the right to manage their own supply how they see fit.

It’d also be nice if we finally stopped those massive arms deals to that rogue nation—hasn't anyone mentioned that yet?
They earned that status a long time ago because of the war in Yemen, but the US administration just loves them too much for their own good.

And one more thing,
RIP NATO 🤣

Anthony Moore15 said:And why on earth would Americans just leave a single pipeline sitting there...

And why wouldn't Russia just leave two or three pipes running? Or at least keep Nord Stream 1 active so the gas could flow without all the red tape?

Would Russia really blow up a certified line like Nord Stream 1 for a tiny chance at reclaiming half that capacity—or maybe just 25% through Nord Stream 2—just to score a symbolic (and totally hollow) victory by forcing Germany's hand? Hint: the U.S. is going to make sure the Germans don't touch Nord Stream 2 anytime soon.

Why wouldn't they just drain those expensive 300 million cubic meters of gas from the Nord Stream 2 section before pulling a diversion?

Why not just drop a few bombs into the Baltic Sea while they're at it?

And, btw, do we actually know for sure there wasn't an attack on the fourth pipe? It’s built to handle 105 bars of pressure—that thing could have easily stayed intact.

Anthony Hill5 said:Are you honestly going to continue trying to convince us that the Russians aren't pulling the strings behind this sabotage? 🤣

The odds just went up—maybe to about 1%.

At least until someone can explain how one single pipeline—where ExxonMobil could only ship half capacity under those regulations—is somehow better than having two running at full tilt.

You think there's any chance it was actually the Americans who blew them up?

Russia says one line of Nord Stream 2 actually held up—meaning they could start pumping gas whenever the politicians decide to stop playing games:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/glo...n-single-line/

Bummer ☕

Jamie Watson4 said:If the USA truly intended to shut down Russian gas exports, they would have gone after the pipelines actually in use—or at least the main ones—rather than sabotaging the ones that aren't even being utilized... ☕

Then Ukrainians wouldn't be staying warm through the winter.
The short-term play is probably just hoping Russia doesn't bomb the Ukrainian lines and instead pumps more through NS1—letting them rake in the cash while Americans freeze.

It's funny how the Turk Stream hasn't met the same fate yet. Probably because the Turks would push back harder against those condescending Swabians—which is likely why everyone stays quiet about expanding NATO.

Interestingly, the Netherlands is trying some legal gymnastics by pulling a company's license for managing TS, but the gas is going to flow regardless:
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-09-3...zYA/index.html

Melissa Rivera5 said:Sorry, but what do you mean "swallowing crap" regarding NS1/2? The West probably detonated it themselves, honestly. It feels like a move to send a message to Russia that they're dead serious about ending all future trade. It's a clean break from Russia, not some half-hearted attempt. Plus, it serves as a perfect excuse to ramp up security for similar infrastructure. 🙂

If the West actually pulled the trigger, the culprits have to be either the reckless ones—Poland or Ukraine—or the USA and UK.

Poland is basically the only one there acting independently within the EU, though they’re pretty "rogue" compared to the rest, especially when it comes to Russia. As for the EU itself, they were kept totally in the dark, and they're likely feeling the sting now that infrastructure is being wiped out without warning—even if it was aimed at Russia. Now they just have to suck it up, because heaven forbid anyone criticizes the big boss.

The whole sabotage saga surrounding the pipelines just keeps dragging on.
That Polish MEP—quite the "gentleman"—actually deleted his tweet where he was thanking the USA.
He clearly overplayed his hand a bit 🤣

While everyone defaults to blaming Russia for every single poisoning incident—with or without actual proof—European officials and the media won't even dare *speculate* that a Western nation might be behind this. There isn't a single word about that possibility. They just timidly offer up Russia as the culprit—which nobody actually believes, but it gives them a convenient scapegoat to point at.

Norway has moved troops in around their gas installations, which makes it pretty obvious who they’re actually afraid of—certainly not the ones who blew up the Russian pipeline, since they're clearly thrilled with the outcome.
And since the Norwegians provide a massive 25% of Europe's gas:
https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/sta...hj8VCh8FO8lLSQ

The EU is also staying quiet on what kind of sanctions might happen if the culprit is actually found. I mean, why bother looking for evidence that points back to the USA?
It probably was them, but the EU (and Germany too) will likely just swallow any amount of crap to keep things quiet. They're basically stuck dealing with the fallout of a 'freedom fart' ☕anyway

northernsailor8 said:Russia definitely won't reach for nuclear weapons, for several reasons.

1. Tactical nukes aren't particularly effective against a highly mobile enemy on the 932 miles front. I guess they don't offer much more direct military impact than the conventional gear Russia already has, like FOAB or hypersonic missiles. Plus, hitting populated cities would be a massive war crime—one you can't really hide or spin as propaganda, even back home.

2. Any detection of elevated radiation levels near the NATO border would likely trigger Article 5 automatically.

3. They run the risk that NATO isn't bluffing and actually follows through with a military response.

4. The economic fallout would be devastating. If Russia faces total isolation at every level—which could include a complete naval blockade of key transit corridors like the GIUK, Dover, Denmark Strait, Bosphorus, or the Japanese archipelago—their access to warm waters and oceans would vanish. In retaliation, Ukrainians would probably just blow up any remaining pipelines. That would strip Russia of its energy profits from Europe, which accounts for about 25% of their GDP and 33% of the state budget. It would effectively kill all maritime trade right when their economy is already stumbling.

5. China and India would likely distance themselves from Russia to protect their own image, especially if the West imposes draconian conditions. Maybe even Iran would pull away, given they have plenty of their own internal issues to deal with instead of sharing Russia's fate.

6. Using nuclear weapons without an immediate response would probably lead to a double-digit increase in the number of nuclear-armed nations in the world. Ukraine might still possess the technical expertise and hardware for some kind of nuclear or radiological device. But honestly, I suspect Russia would worry more about Germany or Poland potentially doing the same.

7. Deciding to use nuclear weapons isn't just up to Putin. According to doctrine, there are three layers: the President, the joint chiefs, and the commander of the silo, airbase, or submarine. It wouldn't be the first time a Russian officer refused a launch order. Disobeying such a command would likely signal the imminent collapse of an already shaky military chain of command.

Conclusion: ignore the Russian intimidation tactics. Russia isn't going to touch nuclear weapons in this conflict.

The FOAB is basically 44 tons of TNT. A tactical nuke is several orders of magnitude larger than that.
And while you can deliver a nuke via missile, you have to fly a bomber to drop a FOAB—which is pretty much a suicide mission given the current air defenses.

2. Any detection of dangerous radiation levels near the NATO border would trigger Article 5 automatically.

A nuclear blast somewhere in Donbas isn't likely to push radiation levels high enough to hit NATO borders.

4. The economic fallout would be catastrophic. If Russia faces total isolation—potentially including a full maritime blockade of vital transit corridors like the >, or the waters around the Japanese archipelago—to cut them off from warm-water ports and oceans... well, the Ukrainians would likely retaliate by blowing up any remaining pipelines. That would wipe out every cent of Russia's energy profits from Europe—about 25% of their GDP and 33% of the state budget—and kill all maritime trade right when their economy is already teetering on the edge of collapse.

Sure, the West has enough naval power to pull it off, but a blockade would be a direct violation of UNCLOS. If things turn violent, we’re looking at an actual war between them, and in those situations, things move fast—nobody cares about how many tankers were sold once the shooting starts.

5. China and India would distance themselves from Russia to protect their image, especially if the West imposes draconian conditions. Even Iran might stay away, considering they have plenty of their own problems to deal with instead of sharing Russia's fate.

That’s a real risk for Putin, but also a huge risk for the West, which could lose access to Chinese and Indian goods (especially since they're already feeling the squeeze from energy issues). Honestly, I don't think tactical nukes alone would be enough to trigger that level of total isolation.

Forget about Iran—you see how "happily" they supply drones? Even China wouldn't dare go that far.

7. Deciding to use nuclear weapons isn't just up to Putin; Russian doctrine requires three layers of approval—the President, the joint chiefs, and then the commander of the silo, airbase, or submarine. It wouldn't be the first time a Russian officer refused a launch order. And if that happened, it would be a clear sign that the already shaky Russian command structure had finally collapsed.

The lower-level tactical leads will probably check in with the rest of the military brass before making any moves.

stormybear25 said:A column of at least six Russian T-90M tanks spotted near the border in Belgorod Oblast, roughly 4.4 miles from the Ukrainian border. This photo was taken yesterday.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/...33904627736577
Check out those cope cages. 🤣 🤣 🤣

Whether they actually work against artillery or top-attack munitions is debatable—and pretty much impossible to verify right now.

But given the terrifying amount of footage showing drone mines dropping straight through tank hatches, this might actually solve that specific headache.

Christian Torres3 said:The US response would be conventional. There were probably two Arleigh Burke class destroyers near Alaska—maybe they're still there—with enough Tomahawks to level that Russian base. I doubt Putin would ever dare touch US soil.

Nah, if they struck at all, it would be strictly against Russian positions and units inside Ukraine (excluding Crimea)—since, technically, they don't view that as Russian territory.

My take? In any scenario involving an attack on Russian troops—even a conventional one—Putin would likely retaliate with a tactical nuke against some NATO military site. It's simple math for him; he knows he’d lose a conventional exchange, so he'd look for the shortcut.

From there, you're just guessing how it ends—but after a few tactical strikes, they'd probably decide it's better to just call the other side and negotiate a ceasefire everywhere, including Ukraine itself. The wildcard would be Zelenskyy—he might feel played and just refuse to play ball.

hollowdriver13 said:There is way too much weed in the air here... anyone else would say *he's* the one acting crazy...

The poor guy is so dependent on the scraps the EU throws him that now that she finally said "enough," he's throwing a tantrum and making empty threats. His "phenomenal" policies have pushed the budget to the brink of collapse, the social programs he uses to buy votes are becoming unsustainable, and his hero Putin is so deep in the gutter right now that he can't even help him out with a little cash. Now he's feeling the heat; maybe the Canadians don't love him as much when the taps run dry.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-...uide-1.1824150

The Forint keeps crashing, so they're hiking interest rates for the third time this year hoping to stop the bleeding—hitting 12.75%, which is basically the highest in Europe.

https://dailynewshungary.com/leaked-...h-authorities/

Then there's Frkic and the nasty IMF coming in to bail out the budget.

https://dailynewshungary.com/gloomy-...-20-inflation/

Lookin' good, 20% inflation in Canada, while the Eurozone is sitting at 9.1% ☕

Looks like you've finally hit the DTs too—total delirium.

Viktor Orbán is basically playing a high-stakes game of chicken with the EU—it’s like watching someone try to outmaneuver the entire Senate just to keep their own local agenda moving. He’s pushing back against the Brussels bureaucracy, and honestly, you have to wonder how much more friction this can take before the whole thing snaps.

The Forint keeps spiraling—now they're hiking interest rates for the third time this year just to chase their own tails. They’ve pushed them up to 12.75%, which is basically the highest rate in all of Europe right now. Just more desperate math to try and stop the bleeding.

The leaks are out, and honestly? It’s just more of the same—another mess involving the authorities that nobody really wants to deal with. Just typical bureaucratic chaos, really.

It’s just Frkic and that bitter IMF crowd trying to bail out the budget again—same old story.

Inflation hit 20%—it’s getting ridiculous. At this rate, even a trip to Target feels like a luxury purchase—just more proof that everything is spiraling.

Inflation's hitting 20% in Canada—meanwhile, the Eurozone is sitting at 9.1%. Crazy stuff. ☕

So there's a real crisis brewing—the European Union is basically trying to squeeze them out by cutting off $7.5 billion a year. Typical move.
It’s basically a textbook case of how to trigger a crisis in the European Union. Canada isn't just sitting there in isolation—this kind of thing spreads through these "unions" like a common cold. It's the law of contagion.

Regarding those sanctions—it’s pretty obvious that lifting them might actually ease things up. If that was your point, you nailed it. 👍
Doduse, now that the NS1/NS2 situation is settled—well, decimated—it’s a different game. You can't stop the European economy from sliding toward the edge just by trying to hold onto old energy lifelines; the only way out of this pre-WWIII tension is through a fast political exit.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Nah, it's just been a rough day, so I was thinking back to how you used to try and convince us that the Chinese and Russians were actually richer than Germans, Swedes, or Norwegians in terms of purchasing power—basically calling the others paupers. I just need something to laugh about, because this whole "Putin is innocent" thing is getting pretty old. I miss those Alan Ford style nonsense takes you'd give up just to get a free deli sandwich.

You got that mixed up somehow—hope you feel better soon.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Putin.

It’s Putin. Honestly, there's really no one else to blame.

So, hey, maybe you could talk a bit more about how Russia actually holds more leverage when it comes to buying power compared to the Germans or the Norwegians? I guess I'd love to hear your take on that.

They're basically at the bottom of the food chain—why didn't you suggest Ukraine instead?
Things have been nothing but sunshine and rainbows over there ever since those self-proclaimed "patriots" took charge.
That crew has really done wonders for them. ☕

You can't just strip Canada of its veto power without their say-so—they’d just use that same veto to shut the whole thing down:

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-u...spite-chatter/
The irony here? Using a passerelle clause to ditch unanimous voting actually requires a unanimous vote itself. Basically, Canada holds the keys to preventing any such rule change.

And honestly, plenty of other nations have similar protections baked into the system.

George Robinson43 said:Meh. A bit underwhelming.
I honestly thought he was going to call for a HUNexit referendum, but instead, it's just about some sanctions.

Sure—it’d be a dream scenario for the EU if the Canadians start leaving, followed by the Italians, Greeks, and so on. It feels more like serving US interests than European ones.
And trying to kick them out? That’s a tall order—nothing moves without someone dropping a veto.

hollowdriver13 said:What's gotten into him?

Does he even have the authority to call for a referendum that affects the whole European Union?

Honestly, trying to swim against the current like this is a bold move, if not a pretty reckless one. He seems to kick into high gear every single time Russia takes another hit on the front lines.
They try to paint him as some kind of economic wizard saving the HU economy (even though, let's be real, they're in a way bigger mess than most of the rest of the EU thanks to him), so why should he care about a measly $7.5 billion when things are supposedly going so great? Or is he actually sweating the possibility of a total budget collapse, meaning he still needs that cash from the very EU he keeps trashing? ☕

Is he just playing tough with this referendum thing?
He wouldn't push a referendum for nothing if he couldn't actually pull it off.
You know perfectly well they have veto power over all sanctions, and the Canadians can just decide for themselves. Most—if not all—sanctions get extended every six months unanimously.
Maybe he'll eventually just cut a deal with Ursula to drop the threat of cutting EU funds so he can dodge the public vote entirely. It's a possibility.

Otherwise, swimming against the current is a brilliant move—let him keep at it, popping up every time Russia gets slapped with another slap on the wrist at the front lines.

Aha, right—because the Canadian's biggest concern is which province the front line in Ukraine is in, rather than how to survive the winter with enough energy (at decent prices) or keeping those EU funds flowing.
People childishly mistake neutrality for, "Aha, he didn't send half his military gear to Ukraine, so he must be rooting for Russia!"

Carl Lee27 said:Man, it’s not just Nord Stream 2 anymore—now it looks like Nord Stream 1 has two massive leaks too, and from what I'm seeing, they're sitting right in the territorial waters of Sweden and Denmark.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...61449628061696

This is a massive escalation—first actual combat activity outside of Ukraine, and targeting key European infrastructure that was paid for with European money. Not just NS2, which isn't even running, but NS1 too!

Someone is working really hard to ensure we don't reach a peaceful resolution in Ukraine. I wonder who that could be?

If the EU doesn't react to this and punish the obvious culprit—without the usual habit of pointing fingers at some convenient scapegoat—then the vassalage to the USA has reached its final stage: total delirium tremens.

Viktor Orbán is calling for a referendum on those EU sanctions against Russia:
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/statu...EdDlLFiWzl7f2g

Man, he’s giving Brussels a piece of his mind—especially since they’re threatening to pull his funding.
Expect a lot of noise and finger-pointing coming our way soon....

Meanwhile, Nord Stream 2 basically lost all its pressure overnight—dropping from 106 down to just 7 bars. Looks like it happened near Bornholm:
https://www.theguardian.com/business...usly-overnight

Not sure if it's one pipe or both yet. If it's both, we're looking at straight-up sabotage.

Anthony Hill5 said:Snowden has officially been granted Russian citizenship. He stands ready for mobilization and prepared to defend his homeland.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...droidApp_Other

So, I guess he's a traitor by your definition?