Posts by Michael Davis9

We live in a world teeming with a thousand different competing interests—you’ve got private commercial ventures and the free market clashing with local community needs, national interests, and various layers of voters from the municipal level all the way up to federal. It's a landscape where the government might hand out the permits for massive infrastructure projects, but they don't actually pull the strings themselves. Honestly, for a lot of people, this level of complexity is just too much to wrap their heads around.

That's why there's always such an appeal to having a direct pact between two major leaders—say, Merkel/Putin—where everything stays crystal clear. If any ambiguities pop up, you just let someone like George Soros, a hiking club like Grönningen, or a recycling group like CFR handle the messy details. In fact, that's basically how RT operates, and it works incredibly well. You really only need to skim through a few pages of this discussion to see what I mean...

dustytiger8 said:Nice try... 🙂

I'll tell you this much: the party in Germany was called the NSDAP—the "National Socialist German Workers' Party." So, Nazism is just shorthand for National Socialism. The only real difference between them and Russia (the USSR) was the focus on the national versus the international. You can see that clearly in the Hitler-Stalin pact signed right before the second war.
In both cases, the result was millions of dead people.

It’s good to remember that occasionally...

If I'm following your logic, then the leaders in North Korea come to power through democratic elections held by the people.

At this rate, you'll probably start telling me that sharks bark, too.

In school terms, I'd say: see me after class.

Sandra Harris2 said:Italian sources are reporting that Lavrov spoke with the US Secretary of State today, suggesting there might be some movement toward resuming negotiations.
Peskov stated that a diplomatic solution remains on the table for the Russian Federation, noting they are open to the March 29th framework—which involves Ukrainian neutrality, third-party guarantees, and settling the status of Crimea and Donbas.

It bugs me that the Russians are negotiating through intermediaries like this. It’s just blatant disrespect. I mean, we already know they treat Ukraine like a Schrödinger's state—existing and not existing at the same time—but this is just low.

Anyway, let them show some actual good faith with a peace offering. ☕🕺

It is Moguce that any kind of unilateral Russian ceasefire regarding Ukraine could actually end up being more detrimental to Russia than to anyone else.

boldbison40 said:because everyone knows Russians live on thin air and gas exports represent only a minor slice of their budget. 😬

Russia trades with the European Union. .

While the European Union buys energy, here is what Russia actually buys from them:

The European Union’s exports in 2021 totaled $110 billion. The heavy hitters were machinery and equipment ($21 billion, 19.7%), motor vehicles ($9.7 billion, 9%), pharmaceuticals ($8.8 billion, 8.1%), electrical equipment and machinery ($8.2 billion, 7.6%), and plastics ($4.7 billion, 4.3%).

However, if Russia can't actually convert those Euros into usable goods—and looking at the massive drop in Russian imports, it really seems like they can't—then you have to wonder how much sense it makes to keep piling up all that cash in Euros.

Personally, I think Putin might have miscalculated here. Those Euros aren't going to build him a tank (or "motor vehicles," to stick to the terminology used in the source above), nor can they buy the electronic components needed for a Boeing jet, or even a high-end industrial valve required for a factory or a power plant.

Even if they decide to turn off the gas taps tomorrow, most European Union nations have had about six months to get their houses in order—which includes importing enough gas to fill up their storage facilities—so the impact won't be quite as catastrophic as it would have been back in month two.

gentlestag15 said:I’ve mentioned this here before, but you have to look back at the Arab oil embargo in 1973. Things literally ground to a halt in Europe and the US for six months because there was zero fuel available.
The oil price spiked several times, jumping from $3 to $12. Instead of the US and Europe collapsing, we actually saw massive economic growth in the years that followed.
The share of Arab oil imports into Europe dropped from 80% down to 20%.
And that hasn't gone back up since; the US mostly just imports it to resell it, not because they actually need it.

Every crisis presents an opportunity, and if this doesn't push European Union countries toward greater energy independence, then there's really no point in it happening.
That said, we shouldn't paint everyone with the same brush. The Finns know exactly who they are dealing with, so they've proactively limited their own gas imports. Sure, they could have gone for cheaper energy over the last few decades, but relying on Russia was just too big a risk for them.

rowdyraven112 As I was saying:
Well, I'm sorry to hear that things didn't pan out for you!

peak ForumHR Quote

I still have access to certain media outlets where you can actually hold a direct conversation with Russians, which means I’m getting information straight from the source. Right at the beginning, they mentioned there had been some hiccups with supply chains for local retailers, but they assured me things were stabilizing pretty quickly. They obviously won't touch politics—and honestly, I don't blame them—but when it comes to the economy, they are more than willing to share just about any data they have on hand. ☕

I don't think this contradicts a single thing I’ve said. Honestly, you just have to be able to tell the difference between a shoe display in a storefront and an actual industrial plant.

urbanotter said:Russia is going to shift its trade focus toward the East and toward the BRIC nations, which they are looking to expand by adding more members.
They’ll try to source the goods they traditionally imported from Europe from other parts of the world instead. Right now, Russia is seeing an unprecedented trade surplus, and when you have that kind of capital, you can always find someone to sell you a car or even basic groceries, while they also begin manufacturing a larger portion of what they used to import themselves.

Chinese cars aren't bad at all, and Brazil produces quite a lot of them too.

However, Europe seems destined to deal with more expensive gas, because the cost of LNG will never be able to compete with the price of gas delivered directly via pipelines.
It’s a simple matter of logistics: the process of liquefying the gas, transporting it on LNG tankers, and then regasifying it is expensive, no matter where in the world Europe sources it from.

Since heating accounts for roughly 30% of imported gas usage, the industrial sector will feel the biggest hit, and with those higher input costs, entering a recession seems almost inevitable.

Sanctions can be a double-edged sword; you can easily end up falling into the very hole you were digging for someone else.

Russia will eventually find its footing and adapt to these new conditions, though it’s inevitable that certain sectors of their industry simply won't be able to pivot—and those parts are going to face total collapse.

Europe is essentially stuck with a sentence of importing much more expensive gas, because there’s just no way the cost of LNG can ever truly compete with the pricing of gas delivered through traditional pipelines.
It’s pretty straightforward when you break it down—between the actual transport via LNG tankers, the unloading process, and all that expensive regasification work, the costs just add up. Honestly, you have to wonder where else in Europe they could have possibly sourced it from to make those numbers work.

If we’re looking at how we power our homes, we're pulling in about 30% of our natural gas from imports just to keep the heating running. That is a massive vulnerability for our economy. When you factor in those skyrocketing input costs, sliding into a recession feels almost like an inevitability rather than just a possibility.

Europe is going to have to find its footing in this new reality, and honestly, it’s just the way things work—those sectors of industry that can't pivot or adapt to these shifting conditions are simply going to face obsolescence. It's a tough pill to swallow, but evolution is inevitable.

Sanctions are such a double-edged sword, aren't they? You think you're digging a hole for someone else, but before you know it, you've gone and fallen right into it yourself. It's a dangerous game.

I honestly feel like you might be missing the forest for the trees when it comes to what sanctions are actually intended to achieve.

swiftjackal11 said:It’s pretty simple, really. As long as they're selling gas, the cash keeps flowing. Once they turn the valve off, the money dries up completely.☕

At its core, money is really nothing more than a tool—it’s just a practical way for us to make exchanging goods and services a whole lot easier.

Historically speaking, the Russian Federation has always relied on the European Union to supply those high-end, high-value goods—we're talking heavy machinery, specialized chemical products, intricate industrial components, and all sorts of sophisticated equipment used for everything from energy extraction to large-scale manufacturing.

When you look at the reality of these sanctions, it’s becoming pretty clear that Russia is hitting a massive wall. They're finding it increasingly difficult to actually buy and import most of what they need, which is why they're facing such an enormous deficit right now. I’ve been looking closely at the recent numbers, and honestly, seeing such a significant drop in imports really caught my eye. It’s one of those shifts that feels like more than just a minor fluctuation; it's a signal that deserves some real thought. When you see import volumes sliding like this, it usually points toward a deeper change in consumer demand or perhaps some tightening in the broader economic landscape here in the States. I can't help but wonder how much of this is a reaction to shifting domestic spending habits versus larger supply chain adjustments. It’s definitely a trend worth watching as we navigate the current economic climate. .

So, it looks like they’ve got plenty of cash on hand, but when it comes to actual assets, there’s nothing to show for it.

If Germany can't get their gas situation sorted out, they’re headed straight into a recession, and honestly, that’s going to drag a massive chunk of the entire European Union right down with them.

Just imagine if the gas supply had been cut off six months ago—we wouldn't have had nearly enough time to get those storage facilities filled up to the brim like we have now.

Bryan Booth82 said:I’m sitting here watching Germany ZDF, listening to the experts debate how much they should actually be sweating about gas shortages IF Nord Stream 1 isn't running...

Back in March, reserves were sitting at 24%, but by July, they climbed up to 65%.🤔
Last year, half of Germany's gas supply was coming straight from Russia, but they've managed to slash that down to 29% this year. The goal—driven by sheer political willpower—is to bring that Russian dependency down to absolute zero.
The experts are saying we could see this fully realized in somewhere between 1.5 to 2 years, worst-case scenario.

And honestly? Even without any sanctions (since there aren't any on gas), the Russians have already lost—and continue to lose—a massive, high-value customer.
France is already signaling they'll cut ties even faster, Poland has already walked away, and plenty of other European Union nations are lining up to do the same.

Just think about it: how massive of a hit is this for Russia?🤔

When you factor in the announced halt on oil imports... we could be looking at a loss totaling hundreds of billions of dollars.🤔

At this point, you don't even need sanctions to make it hurt.
Best,

The only reason those numbers look so good is because Putin didn't just shut off the tap immediately. It’s going to be really interesting to dive into why he made that specific mistake—in my personal opinion, it just comes down to a fundamental misunderstanding of economic leverage.

Anyone trying to justify launching an invasion against a democratic nation and seizing its territory is either completely delusional or just a total Putin sycophant. There really isn't any third option here.

If someone actually needs a lecture on why defeating this aggressive policy is a fundamental strategic interest for both Europe and the United States, they probably shouldn't be involved in politics in the first place. It’s clearly not a field for everyone...

The Euro, the eurozone, and the Federal Reserve—they really speak for themselves. Since its inception, there have been top-tier economists constantly forecasting the inevitable collapse of the Euro; back in 2009, those warnings were hitting the headlines hard.
Russia, Ukraine, and the US don't have anything to do with this.

Honestly, though, the Russophiles out there generally just spout nonsense, and frankly, I don't even see the point in engaging in a debate with them (it would take far too much time just to educate people and correct all the ridiculous things they've written).

Nancy Gomez26 said:He let those past victories go to his head. A man needs to recognize his own limits. It seems Putin just found out exactly where his lie ends.

That’s beautifully put, and I couldn't agree more.

boldotter2 said:Actually, if you look at history, autocratic states were actually the ones dealing with the most trouble regarding migrants, minorities, and refugees. That's why they persecuted them—usually unsuccessfully—only to eventually collapse under all that pressure.

Europe and the whole West wouldn't be what they are today if Rome and Byzantium hadn't known how to handle newcomers at their borders. I guess we’re all literally descendants of refugees.
Democracy, industrialization, Western-style socialism, and capitalism have, for the first time in history, created a functional social model where you can actually turn a profit from minority groups.
The USA was built first on the British misunderstanding of "human rights," and then by directly profiting from migrants.

3) Trump was also sucking up to him, which I bet American intelligence circles used to egg Putin on about being invincible, walking him right onto thin ice.
4) The Chinese person also patted him on the back under the guise of "eternal friendship" while he was stepping out onto that thin ice. It was basically, "Go ahead, we've got your back... well, not really."

Putin is just incredibly stupid.

I have to disagree there, though I won't dive too deep into it since it feels a bit off-topic. Migrants, minorities, and refugees are actually distinct concepts and represent very different social phenomena.

We are all, quite literally, the descendants of refugees.

I don't quite see it that way, though I would certainly agree that we are all descendants of migrants—that part is absolutely true.

Democracy, industrialization, Western-style socialism, and capitalism have, for the first time in history, achieved a functional social model where minority groups can be directly leveraged for profit.

Minorities and migrants aren't the same thing; they are separate terms entirely.
Within a certain society, a member of a minority group might indeed be a descendant of migrants, but that isn't always the case (take the Basques in Spain, for example).

The USA was built first on a British misunderstanding of "human rights," and subsequently on direct profiteering from migrants.

Migration can be a boon for some societies under certain conditions, while for others, it can be a hindrance.
It is such a complex issue because it relies on an incredibly wide array of factors—affecting both the people arriving and the communities receiving them.

I'll concede that the USA has certainly profited from migration (partly because refugees there often have to work just to survive, unlike in much of the European Union where robust social safety nets exist).
However, even in the USA, there is a massive emphasis on strictly regulating and filtering that migration.

If the formula "more people equals a stronger, better, or healthier nation" were actually true, you'd see people from Switzerland or Finland fleeing to India, China, or Pakistan today. We obviously don't see that happening.

Anyway, we're drifting off-topic here, so I won't get sucked into a massive debate about migration; it's just too broad a subject.

Putin is as stupid as they come.

While the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was a colossal blunder, I wouldn't say Putin played his hand well right up until that invasion.
He managed to hook half of Europe on gas, he secured Crimea for nothing, and he even positioned his own players within the USA. You could say plenty of things about Putin, but calling him "stupid" isn't how I would characterize him.

Harold Doyle3 said:Look, I’m a political amateur here, so bear with me while I throw out a few questions...
From a purely strategic standpoint: shouldn't the Russians be playing nice with the West instead of picking a fight? If climate change keeps accelerating—which, let's face it, is becoming our reality—they're going to end up with hundreds of millions of Chinese, Indian, and Arab people pressing against their southern borders looking for living space. Obviously, you can't just sit there and watch people perish from the heat, but there needs to be some kind of management. You can't have a total stampede. Russia couldn't handle that alone... but with some Western cooperation, it might actually be organized. Nukes won't solve a migration crisis. The US has Alaska and Canada to retreat to, then there's Europe Scandinavia, Greenland... even Antarctica...

Secondly:

The Russian aggression in Ukraine is essentially creating an "Israel x 15"!
The Ukrainians have access to NATO weaponry and direct experience fighting the Russians. They are going to become the finest soldiers on the planet. Plus, they are brilliant engineers and technicians; they'll figure out how to merge the best tech from both sides to build world-class hardware...
In my opinion, Russia is making some massive strategic blunders...

The United States certainly doesn't have issues when it comes to managing borders and refugees.

The whole thing is really only a crisis for those nations that have essentially handcuffed themselves handcuffs with the concept of "human rights."

Secondly:

Russian aggression in Ukraine is effectively creating an "Israel x 15"!
With access to NATO weaponry and direct experience fighting the Russians, Ukrainians are going to end up being some of the most capable soldiers on the planet. They are brilliant engineers and technicians; they'll take the best tech from both sides and integrate it to build world-class hardware...
In my view, Russia is making some massive strategic blunders...

That’s spot on, especially since this militarization of Ukraine has been building steadily since 2014.
That’s exactly why so many people (myself included) were convinced that a full-scale invasion wouldn't actually happen.

Compared to what Putin has stumbled into now, Afghanistan—which was one of the catalysts for the fall of the USSR—looks like a walk in the park. And let's be real, Russia isn't the USSR; it doesn't possess that same level of capacity.

If you ask me, these are the reasons he dove into this "Ukraine 2022" adventure:
1) Things went so smoothly back in 2014 that he became totally convinced of his own genius.
2) The yes-men surrounding him kept feeding him this narrative that Ukraine was in the exact same position as it was in 2014—weak and fractured—and that the government and Zelensky would just flee the moment the invasion started, causing the whole country to collapse like a house of cards.

There’s a clear parallel here with Hitler; he also took over Austria and the Sudetenland so easily (and later Poland and France) that he became intoxicated by the success and felt he simply "had" to keep pushing, further and further.
To him, the USSR looked like a fragile house of cards that just needed one solid hit to fall apart.

gentlestag15 said:View on twitter
So, this Chechen commander is on Russian state TV basically bragging about how he’s going to march all the way to Warsaw and take over all of Europe. He’s out here claiming that the gays in Europe don't stand a chance against "real men" from Russia. Just typical stuff, really. 😁

Honestly, I think any nation that makes sure women, minorities, and LGBTQ+ individuals feel respected and included within their military actually ends up with much stronger combat potential and a better shot at winning—just look at how Israel operates.

On the flip side, a country that tries to market its military solely as a club for "macho men" usually ends up with weaker capabilities and a much higher risk of defeat, which you can see when you look at the Israeli neighbors.

It’s probably for the best that the people running Russia don't quite grasp this concept.

northernbadger71 said:Man, I was just scrolling through some major US news outlets and saw this claim that Ukrainians actually agreed to all of Russia's demands back on March 29th, and that’s supposedly why the Russians pulled back from Kyiv

And then they go on to say that it was only after that agreement that the Russians actually started fighting in earnest...

Honestly, the sheer amount of stupidity floating around out there is just unbelievable...

Oh, please. It's more like the Ukrainians would have surrendered way back in February if it weren't for those mean old Americans and Brits constantly poking them to go after their Russian brothers.

It's pretty obvious this site is just spreading RT propaganda; I can only hope they at least got a decent paycheck for it.

Russia is going to pivot its oil and gas exports toward Asia. In the long run, that’s probably going to be way less profitable for them, but let’s face it—it’s not like the entire world is just going to slap sanctions on all Russian energy overnight.

Looking at the big picture, Western sanctions will eventually drag down Russian productivity because, over time, they're going to run out of the high-tech goods needed for efficient mining, manufacturing, and stuff like that, but...

The thing is, Russia is massive, and their capacity to pull off an autarkic economic policy is huge. It’s honestly unrealistic to expect Americans to think that Russians will be starving or running out of basic raw materials after just a month or two. They've been insulating themselves since 2014 and don't rely on the outside world nearly as much as someone like China does.

Even Putin seems to have his head on straight in one specific way—he isn't micromanaging the economy too much. He lets the technocrats do their jobs without forcing them to resign, so instead of making wild, erratic moves, they’re mostly just managing the economic decline.

And when you consider the massive stockpiles of weaponry left over from the USSR, combined with some of their own domestic production, expecting them to just run out of ammo is also pretty unrealistic. The only things that will be hard to replace are helicopters and specialized tech, but they have plenty of those lying around.

Sanctions are good, and we should definitely support them, but keep in mind that the USSR was essentially under some form of sanctions for seventy years.
Russia is smaller than the old union, sure, but they don't have a planned economy anymore or a bunch of idiots running every single aspect of the economy.
It’ll get harder for them to pick up quality car tires or a decent laptop, but they aren't going to run out of food or basic, low-tech weaponry anytime soon.

At the end of the day, the only way for Ukraine to win is militarily; sanctions can only do so much to help that effort.

Hannah Williams8 said:

Is anyone else heading to the Met this weekend? It should be a blast! Hannah Williams8 says:
Without any way to export or maintain current wells, oil production in Russia is headed for an irreversible decline.
I can't believe how much things have shifted. Is anyone else feeling this? It’s wild to watch everything change right before our eyes.

So we get 10% less product, but prices jump by 15%? Makes sense, right?
Honestly, the economic analysts are what get under my skin most during this war—and I’ve been saying this since day five. First, it was all about how Russia couldn't fund the conflict for more than ten days, then they were supposedly broke, and it just keeps going like that. These people just tear everything apart without actually understanding the reality on the ground. It never ends. At the end of the day, military force drives these events, while the economy plays such a minor role. Don't you think?

It’s honestly pretty sad how little people actually understand the world they live in.

Gary Johnson6 said:Since we’re talking oil and gas, why don't the Americans just convince Ukraine to blow up those pipelines? While Europe wastes time debating, time is slipping away... Maybe the US could just compensate Ukraine for the lost revenue from those transit fees.

Why on earth would Ukraine want to blow anything up when they can simply shut off the valve?

It’s pretty obvious that it’s in Ukraine's best interest for that gas to keep flowing; if it wasn't, they would have turned off the tap a long time ago.

Kate Lewis3 said:The EU isn't burning through its reserves just to keep its head above water.

That’s definitely true, but they—just like the United States—are printing money like there's no tomorrow. And man, you can see that inflation just keeps climbing and climbing...

driftingtinker said:That "lax moderation" approach also applies to current political discussions, specifically regarding where exactly the line in the sand has been drawn.

It seems like Vase’s version of "relaxed moderation" basically means "you can talk about Topic A or Topic B," but if anyone dares to call Topic B an "FBI shill," they get slapped with a three-day ban.
Personally, I think everything is fine; I’m just glad to see you guys standing publicly behind your own decisions.

This whole "taking things out of context" thing is something you've been doing for days across various other threads, so this ban on VPiT is really just the inevitable result of your entire approach.

I was banned because of a quote that the moderators stripped right out of its original context.
If I write A, B, and C, and you decide to quote only B as the reason for my ban, then YOU are the ones pulling my words out of context.

So, what is this supposed "out-of-context" behavior that I have supposedly been practicing for days?

Look, I'm flattered that you find my posts worth tracking, truly, but if I actually break a rule, I believe it's only fair to handle it right then and there instead of waiting to hand out group punishments after the fact.

Why don't you try testing those examples once your cooling-off period ends, and then let us know if that biased moderator is still coming after you.
That’s where I draw the line.

I have absolutely no intention of "testing" anything, especially since I have zero interest in spreading FBI shill rhetoric. Honestly, I have no idea where you're getting this "persecution" idea from—I never once suggested anything of the sort...

You have been banned for the following reason:
"I'm just fed up with fighting FBI mouthpieces on this forum" on VPiT

Because of that specific sentence—which, mind you, was taken completely out of context from a moment where I was actually praising a fellow member for providing such well-reasoned arguments—I ended up getting slapped with a multi-day ban. I wasn't attacking anyone personally or being insulting toward any individual.

If you look at most of the threads regarding Ukraine, you can clearly see the fingerprints of FBI propaganda everywhere, which typically works by:
- Equating the aggressor with the victim
- Deflecting the conversation toward the US, Iraq, or even aliens

Here are a few examples from VPiT:

One user "conveniently forgets" about the daily struggles against the Russian aggressor in Donbas that have been dragging on for years:

#2548 The war exists only in the minds of American psychopaths... and the lackeys who follow them blindly..

This same user "forgets" the ongoing combat against the Russian aggressor in Donbas that has persisted for years:

The only invasion currently underway is the American invasion of Europe..

It is quite fascinating how this forum member "forgot" to mention the aggression in Crimea and Donbas:

#2577
While we wait for a crazed Putin to invade Ukraine, let's take a moment to remember the history of Russian aggression over the years:

@moonofa acidly observes that US intel agencies and stenographer US media have been reporting supposed buildup of Russian troops on Ukraine border AT regular intervals for nearly All of 8 years since US-backed regime Change coup in Feb 2014 jul 30
Jul 30, 2014: Russia Has 15,000 crack Troops on The Ukrainian Border - and Putin
- Foreign Policy mar 19
Mar 19, 2015: Russia Expands Military Exercises to 80,000 Troops - Defense News Sep 1
- Defense News
Sep 1, 2016: Russia is massing thousands of troops on Ukraine’s border. Here’s why we shouldn’t panic.
- Vox
Sep 13, 2017: What’s Putin up to? The Russian military buildup in Europe raises tension
- Military Times
Dec 15, 2018: Ukraine Asserts major Russian Military Buildup on Eastern Border
- New York Times
Jun 12, 2019: exclusive : US Intelligence Officials and Satellite Photos Detail Russian Military Buildup on Crimea - Defense One jul 17 , 2020 : Russia orders ' surprise ' military drill in Caspian
- Defense One
Jul 17, 2020: Russia orders ' surprise ' military drill in Caspian, Black seas
- UPI
Apr 2, 2021: Russian 'troop build-up' near Ukraine alarms NATO
- BBC
Jan 27, 2022: How Russia Has Increased Its Military Buildup Around Ukraine
- New York Times

What is truly surprising is that driftingtinker actually moderates this thread quite loosely;

Quote : #2559
This thread is intentionally moderated with a light touch; we encourage vigorous debate, but there should be no insults or targeting of users. And please, no doxxing or revealing identities, as that is one of the most serious offenses.

However, my comment was apparently far too much for VPiT, which is why I was hit with a 3-day ban.

If I were just trolling about an American invasion of Europe, I probably would have gotten away with it, but the second I point out when someone else is trolling, I get banned.