Posts by Hannah Williams8

From what I can tell, there aren't any maps out there clearly showing where those regions' borders actually sit—you know, the ones annexed by the Russian Federation.

Arthur Watson4 said:At those prices, who am I even supposed to sell this to?

I haven't a clue, but it looks like oil and gas are still flowing into the European Union just like before. China is buying up plenty too.
The war has to be settled militarily—surely you realize that? It has to end with the aggressor losing.

Carl Lee27 said:What we're looking at here is a drop in production. That's not the same thing as a drop in exports, which is probably even steeper. A dip in production is a massive tell—it means they've filled up their storage tanks and are now starting to slowly shut down the wells. And they filled those tanks because they can't sell the oil even with a discount; at this point, a price hike doesn't mean a damn thing to them.

But look, the economy plays a massive role in wartime scenarios. This isn't just some brief skirmish in Ukraine; this is a much deeper clash between Russia and the West that's going to drag on for years, likely until the current top brass in Russia falls. Ukraine might just end up being one of many proxy wars, and honestly, this whole thing could easily stretch on for years. Just like how the USSR wasn't defeated purely on a battlefield, but was instead brought down by its own economic collapse, that's exactly how today's Russia is going to go down.
But fine, since you guys are all so annoyed by the economic analysts... does anyone actually have a suggestion for how to "militarily crush" a nuclear superpower while simultaneously making sure there's still a planet left to live on? Or do you seriously believe that losing an offensive in Donbas is going to flip the mindset of the Russian public, cause Putin to commit suicide, lead to the withdrawal of recognition for those republics, or see Crimea returned, and so on?

It’s tough to analyze or predict what's happening when we're looking at it from our Western perspective. We're dealing with a Russian people who have never actually known true freedom, transparency, or an independent press. So, how can we honestly expect them to just rise up and topple their government?
Are we really trying to project Western values onto a population that has only ever known autocratic rule? Isn't that a bit optimistic?

Is anyone else heading to the Met this weekend? It should be a blast! Hannah Williams8 says:
Without any way to export or maintain current wells, oil production in Russia is headed for an irreversible decline.
I can't believe how much things have shifted. Is anyone else feeling this? It’s wild to watch everything change right before our eyes.

So we get 10% less product, but prices jump by 15%? Makes sense, right?
Honestly, the economic analysts are what get under my skin most during this war—and I’ve been saying this since day five. First, it was all about how Russia couldn't fund the conflict for more than ten days, then they were supposedly broke, and it just keeps going like that. These people just tear everything apart without actually understanding the reality on the ground. It never ends. At the end of the day, military force drives these events, while the economy plays such a minor role. Don't you think?

I really hope those invaders finally back off 👍

Arthur Watson4 said:Did the Pentagon announce that Ukraine received more aircraft?

Edit: ah, I see "aircraft," my auto-translate tripped up.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-apr...-have-received

Or in plain English: the Secretary of Defense just stated that Ukraine recently "received additional aircraft and aircraft parts to help them get more planes in the air."

brightheron64 said:That’s the exact same kind of nonsense as Russia's supposed "self-sufficiency" or those Gulf "economies."

Everything looks fine as long as the money keeps flowing and the meters are still spinning...

Until one day... 😲

It sounds so tragic that it might actually be true...

All that's left is to wait and see if this is reality or just wishful thinking : US...

US, European Union announce joint task force to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas
https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-europe...on-russian-gas

P.S.
How is the American shipbuilding industry faring when it comes to LNG/LPG tankers? Is that window of opportunity closed, or is there a new opening ahead? 🤔

👍
Spot on observation. There are going to be plenty of business opportunities ahead, don't you think?

Mark Carter14 said:I can’t believe I’m seeing this in my morning 🤣

It’s like these warnings haven't been able to break through to the mainstream media until now... as if some new winds have started blowing lately.

One fact people seem to forget: you can't really isolate Russia when you have two massive nations with 2.8 billion people standing right there.

...Regardless, with China and India involved, Western sanctions against Russia are unlikely to be airtight. It also raises the question of whether China, India, and Russia might eventually use this situation to fundamentally reshape the global economic and financial system.

Take Russia, for example. Over the last decade, they've amassed massive gold reserves, most of which they've kept strictly within their own borders. Right now, they control about 2,300 tons of gold, worth roughly $140 billion. But despite how much its value has skyrocketed since the invasion began, they can't really use that gold to maintain the country's external liquidity—partly because of the sanctions, and partly because the West is avoiding any business with Russia altogether. For instance, the London gold market has suspended imports from Russia. Meanwhile, back in Russia, public panic has sent demand for gold through the roof. Elvira Nabiullina, who is incredibly experienced and professional at running the Russian central bank, actually decided to step back from the market just to avoid competing with regular citizens during this gold rush. So, while Americans might buy gold to hedge against inflation, Russians are buying it to protect themselves from a potential crash in the ruble, all while the central bank holds off on buying gold from commercial banks.

This whole setup led Zoltan Pozsar, a highly respected expert from Credit Suisse, to suggest that Russia could potentially leverage its gold stockpiles to bring monetary policy back toward a gold standard. In that scenario, the gold would serve as an anchor for the ruble. Now, that isn't realistic right this second, but just imagine if three powers—Russia, China, and India—decided to pivot back to gold standard principles, while the dollar and the euro remain currencies primarily dependent on the policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank—essentially currencies without a "gold backing."

This is a very real possibility.

That's just plain nonsense 😁
. You seem to be missing the actual economic fundamentals here.

Dana Robinson4 said:They claim to be incredibly self-sufficient, yet isn't it true that this entire gas supply is actually drawn from Russian and Saudi Arabian oil?

Do you really know the difference between LPG and LNG?

slyfox43 said:Every once in a while, we find ourselves circling back to those days of starvation reminiscent of Stalin's era, waiting to receive humanitarian aid from a West we've grown to resent.

I honestly think we have plenty of basic food supplies, and if they actually manage to conquer Ukraine, we'll probably have even more.
This war didn't just pop up overnight; it’s been in the works for years.
I've been saying it from the start: this is really a war against Western civilization.

Sanctions don't really hurt if you've already decided to walk away from Western civilization altogether, right?
I mean, I can always just go work in a coal mine, flip on some state-run news channels to catch Vladimir Putin's latest speeches, hang out at local community clubs, and collect vintage political pins. That’s plenty of life for me.

silentsurfer3 said:Andrij Melnyk, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany, is basically saying he’s completely floored by how US officials have been brushing him off when he asks for military support.

Apparently—and this is the wild part—he’s been chatting with ministers who basically tell him, “Look, you guys only have a few hours left anyway, so what’s the point in us stepping in now?”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...28484868071424

That's just awful.

If Russia manages to grab the southern border of Ukraine—meaning if they take Mariupol—and links up with Transnistria, then Moldova is absolutely screwed.
Wouldn't it be smart for them to ask for some EU troops on the ground before it's too late?

Jack Kelly5 said:Exactly this. I feel like I've said it a few times now, but this whole mess is mostly just going to end up hurting Russia and Russians in the long run. People who think Putin actually has some kind of loyal best friend in China are seriously misreading the situation, I guess. The Chinese are playing their own game, looking out for their own interests... they're just waiting around and counting their money while everything plays out.

I posted a link last night, but did anyone actually read it?
Since yesterday, the Chinese have stopped signing energy deals with the Russians in dollars and switched to yuan instead.😁
Isn't that a much bigger blow than shooting down 100 Sukhois or burning 900 tanks?

Sam Wright21 said:Perhaps. But when you're living under a tyranny, you can't exactly speak your mind. Yet, you see plenty of people admiring him; here in the States, we have the freedom to discuss it openly, which leads some to openly express support for Putin.🤦

A putin bullet might be the only cure. It makes me wonder again—where exactly will this Hitler figure stop in Europe? America created chaos on a global scale, and now NATO seems to serve little purpose.

They are cut from the same cloth. Honestly, Marshall was a genius for coming up with the Non-Aligned Movement.

Why not just admit you're against free speech?

Tyler Jones6 said:It’s a bit of an oversimplification to claim that only Russia is attacking Ukraine—this is essentially an assault by the Russian Federation and Belarus

True. Except Belarus isn't even independent, so nobody really counts them.
Belarus is just Outina's version of what he said about Ukraine.

Benjamin Taylor6 said:See, if you just surround a city, you run the risk of turning it into a total siege disaster—sort of like what happened during the Siege of Ottawa back in the day. You end up having to let humanitarian convoys through, and launching a direct assault on the city itself becomes a massive gamble because the casualty rates would be astronomical. Plus, the Russians would face a PR nightmare on the global stage. If they go the encirclement route, they absolutely have to secure their own supply lines first. And let's be real—the Western part of Ukraine isn't just going to sit there and take this lying down.
Which means the Russians might just be staring down the barrel of a long, grueling war of attrition.

Up until now, the Russians have been relying on armor—tanks and APCs—but looking at these clips on X, it looks like they’re bringing in heavy artillery. Since there aren't any established front lines yet, those howitzers are likely aimed right at the cities. Are we looking at a new Memphis or Boston?

velvetcyclist95 said:No matter how this plays out, NATO needs to be actively working to undermine the Russian Federation and get Putin's regime replaced.

If the EU weren't such a mess, we could actually make that happen.
The whole issue boils down to Germany's reliance on foreign energy and their crazy decision to shut down their nuclear plants.
Are we really supposed to believe every single car will be electric in five years?
They're chasing a fantasy.
Germany has allowed itself the embarrassment of having a former chancellor acting almost like an advisor to Putin.

casualhound42 said:The Russians couldn't care less about how long this war drags on—it's not like they're punching a clock. They’re fully aware the West isn't going to step in.

If that were true, they'd still be stuck in Afghanistan.

Is China shifting how they fund trade with Russia?
JPMorgan Chase offshore branches have stopped issuing US dollar letters of credit for buying physical Russian goods ready for export. Some clients can still access yuan-denominated credits, though those require high-level management approval, according to sources who asked to remain anonymous while discussing private business matters.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...an-commodities