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Posts by Anthony Hill5

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Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Carl Lee27 said:Well, you really can't make this stuff up—here’s the absolute best and latest from Russia in action. This supposedly "sanction-proof" and totally self-sufficient new Ford wouldn't even turn over. It happened right during the official unveiling, standing there in front of a massive swarm of reporters at that famous economic forum ☕
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/st...95937781538818

Is this not the ultimate proof that sanctions only serve to strengthen Russia?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
wearytrucker22 said:Natural gas prices have dropped to $25 per megawatt hour
At $270 per thousand cubic meters? Please. Some uneducated, five-dimensional chess-playing Russian redneck thinks he can actually outmaneuver the rest of Europe.

Europe is the biggest importer of crude oil and gas on the planet, which means they dictate the global flow. When the EU says "jump," everyone else is either jumping or dying trying. It’s always been this way, and honestly, it isn't changing for at least the next hundred years.

It changes nothing. We were doomed the very moment we decided to rely on the spot market instead of sticking with those long-term Russian contracts where we would have been paying a mere $200 per unit.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
analogbear5 said:Bad translation from Russian to English. Borrell never actually said that.

Are we honestly expected to believe that Assad and Putin's little sprinter troll is lying and making things up? Absolutely not.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Larry Wilson25 said:
Natural gas prices could actually dip below zero in parts of Europe

Europa Tsvetan Paraskov - May 28, 2023, 6:00 PM CDT

Since sluggish demand for gas in power generation and industrial sectors has caused European natural gas prices to go into a freefall over the last few weeks, traders and industry officials aren't ruling out the possibility that Europe could see brief periods of negative day-ahead prices in certain markets this summer.

The perfect storm—massive stockpiles left over from a mild winter, steady LNG imports, and just plain weak demand—has led to eight straight weeks of losses for European benchmark gas prices. That’s the longest losing streak we've seen in over six years... honestly, it's wild.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...Of-Europe.html

The EU somehow managed to survive the fever dreams of every Russophile, neighbor, and all those other trolls who claim to hate the West while they're busy lining their pockets with Western cash. I guess they just don't have much love for the Rupee either. 😬

Something about this reeks. Our resident forum experts on the gas business spent months, if not years, warning us that following the exact market strategy advocated by the European Union would lead us straight into ruin, and that only long-term gas contracts with ExxonMobil could actually guarantee low prices.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Lisa Jackson7 said:You should have tried surviving in the Third Reich back in 1942...☕

It’s easy to play professor when you’re safely out of reach of the FBI—

Maybe a single phone call from the right people to Yeltsin 25 years ago would've been enough to kick that narcissistic punk out of the White House.

Precisely! They ought to have simply called Yeltsin and demanded he remove Putin and throw him in prison for the sheer volume of crimes and embezzlement committed during his tenure. It seems we were missing just that one solitary phone call.
Turkey - TR in World ·
steelfox98 said:Except the Americans tried to take him out seven years ago. Back when Biden was Vice President.
Maybe some naive souls actually believe Washington just gave up on toppling disobedient leaders—as if they don't just bomb countries whenever they dislike the guy in charge.
Erdogan isn't a saint, but it's up to the Turkish people to decide what serves their interests, not the interests of the USA.

What an incredible evolution we are witnessing, moving from "Erdogan is a criminal and a financier of ISIS" to "Erdogan isn't exactly a saint." Is it really that simple? Does one merely need to purchase an S-400 system and start hurling accusations at the Americans regarding the orchestration of a coup?

Turkish minister says U.S. behind 2016 failed coup - Hurriyet

Russia says it has proof Turkey involved in Islamic State oil trade

Putin: Turkey shot down jet to protect ISIL oil supply

If it weren't for you people, I swear, someone ought to invent a way to make you disappear.🙏
Turkey - TR in World ·
Sam Alvarez4 said:Why on earth would anyone think the Turkish elections are "the most important elections in the world this year"? 🤔

They aren't even close to being the most significant elections in Europe, let alone globally...
Whatever the Turkish people decide, that's their business. It has very little, if any, impact on EU member states.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss these elections. If there is actually a change in leadership, it will fundamentally shift Turkey's foreign policy—which, under Erdogan, has been nothing short of confrontational toward the West.

Furthermore, should the opposition emerge victorious, they have already signaled intentions to deport 3.5 million Syrian refugees; could this not trigger yet another massive wave of migration toward our borders, creating a massive headache for the European Union?
Turkey - TR in World ·
Carol Newman2 said:Erdogan: Biden gave the order to take me down

This is nothing more than the textbook rhetoric of a dictator attempting to manufacture an external threat and an imminent danger. If he fails at the polls, will he admit it was the people's decision, or will he simply claim it was Biden's interference?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Forget about Russia; look at our own local "economic wizards" and gas industry experts who spent the last two years preaching doom and gloom. They insisted we were practically committing suicide if the US didn't sign long-term gas contracts with Russia, claiming everyone in the European Union was incompetent and that the spot market was an absolute catastrophe for us...

US energy price trends sink to levels not seen since the energy crisis began

A drop to a 21-month low fuels optimism that inflationary pressures are finally receding

US energy prices have plummeted to their lowest point since the onset of the energy crisis, fueling expectations of a robust economic recovery as energy-driven costs begin to subside.

The Henry Hub benchmark bottomed out at $35.20 per megawatt hour on Friday, reaching a level not witnessed since July 2021, back when US energy security history was being rewritten as Russia began tightening the screws on energy supplies prior to its invasion of Ukraine. Prices saw a minor uptick to close the week at $35.95. To recall, the Henry Hub benchmark skyrocketed to over $340/mwh last summer after Russia slashed gas exports to the West, driving inflation through the roof and sending energy bills spiraling out of control.

https://www.ft.com/content/cf866df3-...9-dde39c0e4893

#ShockAndDisbelief
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Western sanctions simply aren't working.

US Dollar volatility

The US Dollar volatility intensified as the currency continued its slide against major Western benchmarks on April 7, hitting levels not seen since mid-April 2022. We are seeing a 5 percent drop against the dollar and a staggering 13 percent decline against the euro.

Bloomberg News also linked this downward trend to recent reports that ExxonMobil has officially pulled out of the massive ExxonMobil energy project.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-rubl.../32353653.html
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
George Robinson43 said:Why don't you tell us who actually footed the bill? The Chinese?

And I suppose he was paid in petro-yuan, was he?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Just as I predicted before the conflict even kicked off, once Russia finally collapses, those who were once obsessed with Moscow will suddenly pivot to becoming absolute sycophants for Beijing. Long live the petro-yuan! 🤣
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
wiredseal7 said:Here’s a perfect example of how sanctions can trigger some pretty "unintended" consequences—assuming they don't just kill the victim first. In this case, we're looking at the end of London's total grip on maritime insurance:

https://twitter.com/Kathleen_Tyson_/...167834626?s=20

That all sounds wonderful in theory, but it ignores the massive "if" hanging over this entire situation.

If that spreads to more countries and more types of goods , The monopoly of London will be goniti

Since the largest shipping conglomerates are Western-based, isn't this essentially making claims about the USA—an entity that is already teetering on the brink of collapse?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
George Lewis9 said:Honestly, the most effective way to take down an aggressive regime would be the exact opposite of what we’re doing—investing instead of sanctioning. Imagine pumping trillions of dollars into Russia just to let the population get a taste of a normal lifestyle, until they eventually start demanding democratic reforms themselves. It’s like that old saying—you have to give them something to lose. That’s what actually stings. When people have nothing, they don't care about sanctions or geopolitics; they just focus on survival.

Would you care to explain why a population, suddenly gifted trillions in investment and a comfortable lifestyle by an aggressive regime, would ever bother to revolt against it?

We saw a similar policy applied toward China, and look at the result: an increasingly aggressive regime where the Communist Party remains firmly in control.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
George Lewis9 As specified by George Lewis9:
You have strayed quite far from the mark; to even begin discussing the demand for high-end products like BMWs or Intel processors, one must first possess a stable, foundational population. To sustain such a population, you require a robust agricultural sector as your bedrock, and in this modern era, agriculture is simply impossible without advanced mechanization. Unlike North Korea, the Russian Federation possesses the capacity to manufacture its own machinery, leveraging its own vast natural resources, domestic expertise, and labor force. There is absolutely no need to rely on imports when it comes to that specific necessity.

I find myself unable to concur with the notion that Russia can maintain an independent agricultural sector, given that they remain fundamentally reliant on imports from NATO nations for the vast majority of their needs. How can one possibly claim self-sufficiency when the very foundation of their food supply depends so heavily on Western trade?

I have addressed this matter on numerous occasions within this specific PDF thread, so I am providing the link to that discussion once again.

Is there anything more transparently absurd than the current obsession with "import substitution"? We are told, with such practiced solemnity, that we can simply conjure entire industrial ecosystems out of thin air to replace foreign goods, yet any rational observer can see this for the elaborate fiction it truly is. How can a nation expect to achieve self-sufficiency when the very foundations of its supply chains remain tethered to global markets? We hear these grand proclamations from officials who seem to believe that decreeing a product "domestic" somehow magically imbues it with quality or independent origin. It is a delusion of the highest order. When you strip away the patriotic rhetoric, what are we actually left with? A collection of rebranded imports, perhaps? Or worse, a hollowed-out manufacturing sector struggling to mimic the sophisticated technology of Western giants like Intel or Lockheed Martin without the requisite intellectual property or specialized components? Can we honestly pretend that replacing a high-tech component from a major US corporation with a locally assembled imitation—which likely relies on the same sub-components sourced from overseas—constitutes true economic sovereignty? It is nothing more than a shell game designed to soothe the anxieties of policymakers while doing little to bolster actual domestic innovation. To suggest otherwise isn't just optimistic; it is an affront to anyone with a basic understanding of global economics. Are we meant to applaud this theater of substitution, or should we call it what it really is: a desperate attempt to mask systemic vulnerabilities under the guise of independence?

Is this truly how we intend to begin? Does one simply present the introductory portion of an article without any sense of gravity or structural integrity? It seems we are expected to accept such a superficial opening as if it were a complete thought, yet where is the substance? Where is the intellectual rigor required to actually engage a reader? One cannot help but wonder if the entire endeavor is destined to be as hollow as this initial segment suggests.

Since 2014, officials have been peddling the narrative that by banning food imports from the EU, Russia has successfully managed to almost entirely replace foreign products with domestic production. They even went so far as to claim they had become a leading global exporter of agricultural goods. But wasn't this entire concept of import substitution merely a clever illusion? When one looks closer, does it not become obvious that the machinery, the spare parts, the advanced technologies, the pesticides, the seeds, the poultry stock, and even the bovine genetics are all still being imported from NATO nations? Is it truly self-sufficiency if you are still tethered to the West for the very tools required to produce your own food?

Is it truly feasible to discuss the concept of import substitution when that very strategy is built upon the foundation of continued imports? One must wonder if we are merely chasing our own tails in this economic cycle. How can an administration claim to be fostering domestic independence while simultaneously relying on foreign goods to fuel the very industries meant to replace them? It seems less like a strategic shift toward self-sufficiency and more like a circular, redundant exercise in fiscal futility.

Is it not a profound irony that our domestic agricultural products bear a striking resemblance to something like a Lada X-Ray—an assembly where forty percent of the components originate in Romania and the processing power relies on Elbrus chips manufactured in Taiwan? We find ourselves in a position where we must import hatching eggs and live chicks just to raise Russian broilers and layers; indeed, back in 2019, imports accounted for a staggering ninety-eight percent of all breeding material. These vital supplies are shipped to Russia by German firm Aviagen and the American giant Cobb-Vantress. And now, what do we see? Those very same nations have imposed sanctions against the Russian Federation which, while ostensibly exempting food supplies, effectively paralyze the industry by prohibiting both the transport of eggs and the financial transactions required to pay for them. Is this not a calculated strangulation of a vital sector?

It stands to reason that an automobile manufacturer possesses the inherent capacity to produce such components independently. Why should they rely on external suppliers when the infrastructure for self-sufficiency is already within their grasp?

Their entire automotive industry has completely collapsed. Now, they’ve resorted to churning out Moskvitch cars simply because they lack the capacity to produce anything better.

brightheron64 said:Really?

The United States imposed sanctions in the 1950s and ramped them up significantly following various international bombings targeting South Korea by North Korean agents throughout the 1980s,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sancti...st_North_Korea

Where exactly did I claim that sanctions weren't imposed? My point was quite clear: the development of a nuclear arsenal was the sole guarantee of the regime's survival, not some direct byproduct of the sanctions themselves. Is that not an undeniable fact?

Your assertion that the nuclear program is merely a byproduct of sanctions is, to say the least, highly debatable and lacks any shred of empirical evidence. How can you possibly maintain the position that North Korea would not have pursued nuclear weaponry if it weren't for those specific sanctions—sanctions which, as you conveniently admitted earlier, were implemented for entirely different motivations altogether?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Russians find themselves unable to collect payment for their arms sales to India because India cannot settle the bill in US dollars without triggering sanctions, yet the Russians refuse to accept rupees.

According to officials, India is paralyzed by the fear of secondary sanctions, making a dollar-based transaction impossible, while Russia remains steadfast in its refusal to take rupees due to exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, New Delhi is hesitant to finalize any deals using Russian rubles, fearing they won't be able to convert them on the open market at a fair rate.

In an attempt to solve this deadlock, the Indian government suggested that Moscow use the accumulated rupees from these weapons sales to invest back into Indian debt and equity markets to prevent a massive surplus of the currency, but Vladimir Putin's administration has shown zero interest in such an arrangement.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ru...062410212.html

#sanctionsfail #bricsdominance
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
brightheron64 said:
Thomas Walker84 As stated by:
The G7 remains absolutely steadfast in its support for Ukraine, insisting that there be an unconditional withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukrainian territory...

And now they’re all weeping over this conclusion, acting like the world is ending, as if they won't be the first ones raising their hands in victory by tomorrow morning...

Thomas Walker84 As the user said...
The sanctions against Russia are only going to tighten their grip, and I expect we'll see a massive surge in oversight to crack down on any attempts at bypassing them...

When I look at the sanctions being leveled against everyone from North Korea to Iran and even Russia, I can't help but get this nagging feeling that they’re actually backfiring... It seems like they're just forcing these nations to huddle closer together, pushing them into this desperate survival mode where they'll invent just about anything to stay afloat. They start acting like frantic traveling merchants, trying to offload every scrap of raw material they have just to make a sale, while simultaneously doubling down on a drive for total self-sufficiency—which, if you think about it, ends up being the exact opposite of what the people imposing the sanctions actually intended...

Just to give you some perspective, North Korea—which, let’s be honest, was only kept from complete collapse by China—is now out there waving ballistic nuclear missiles around like they own the place... 😲 I might be totally off base here, but I can't help but think that if we hadn't gone down this path of constant sanctions from the start, North Korea probably wouldn't have evolved into such a massive nuclear threat...
It’s a similar situation with Iran, though unlike North Korea, they still have the ability to move oil under the radar if they play their cards right. You only have to look at how they've pivoted toward massive agricultural expansion after facing those rounds of chess moves and sanctions—they've actually managed to double their output. I can't help but wonder if they'll eventually make a truly smart, constructive move in that direction... because at the end of the day, humanity is going to need food far more than it will ever need oil...

So, let me give you a sense of how things actually look on the ground here in a highly developed Western nation like the US...Davor Romić: It’s honestly a bit disheartening to see that not a single one of those 34 irrigation projects is actually being utilized to its full potential..."

What kind of self-sufficiency are we even talking about here? Do you honestly believe the Russians are suddenly going to start manufacturing Mercedes-Benz cars and BMWs, or Intel processors and Nvidia graphics cards, or Samsung mobile phones and televisions? What exactly is your definition of self-sufficiency? Is it living on the brink of starvation, much like in North Korea?

Take North Korea, for instance—a nation that the Chinese saved from total collapse—which now spends its time waving ballistic nuclear missiles around. 😲 Perhaps I am mistaken, but if we assume that sanctions had never existed, would South Korea not have become such a nuclear threat?

You aren't just perhaps mistaken; you are almost certainly wrong. Under the continuous rule of the Kims, the North Korean regime viewed nuclear weapons as the sole guarantee of their survival. In other words, sanctions didn't drive Kim to develop nuclear weapons; rather, the sanctions were a direct response to Kim's policy of regime survival.

It is similar with Iran, although, unlike South Korea, they can still limp along thanks to their oil. Take irrigation, for example; following the embargoes and sanctions, they actually doubled their agricultural irrigation. Will they produce something intelligent or useful? After all, humanity needs food far more than it needs oil.

In any case, regarding Iranian water, I read reports about how they are facing severe shortages and pollution, but if we are to take your word for it, they clearly don't lack anything.

For decades, the Iranian government has failed to address the country’s water shortages, causing social unrest that will only intensify if the problems continue

Just look at how things stand in an advanced Western nation like the United States: "Davor Romić: None of the 34 irrigation projects are being used to their full capacity."

If only we had a leader like Putin—pardon me, I mean the Ayatollah.
Harassing the moderators in Feedback & Suggestions ·
@nica

Why hasn't this post been published?

It has already been twenty days since this ridiculous penalty was handed down to me, so I am truly indifferent as to whether my ban will be shortened or if I must serve its full duration.

I fail to grasp what exactly constitutes "trolling" in my commentary regarding Syria, nor can I fathom what this infamous "jumping in" refers to; given that it is common knowledge that dogs jump on females during mating, the very use of such terminology by the moderation team feels inherently insulting.

To return to the crux of the matter and the penalty itself: I was slapped with 100 points and a one-month ban simply because I was providing reasoned rebuttals to the assertions made by a certain colleague from the counter-world faction.

Regarding the Syria thread, I find myself in the minority as one of the few individuals who refuses to support the criminal and genocidal policies of Assad, which results in me being attacked by the majority in a pack-like fashion; then, after I have responded to everyone without a single insult, I am accused of "jumping in and multi-day trolling" through some sort of mental gymnastics. A quick review of the last few pages clearly demonstrates that it is my colleagues who engage in debates with me, rather than the other way around, and that my posts are substantiated with arguments and links whenever possible.

For instance, a colleague from the opposing side was the first to quote my post and began a series of replies that dealt primarily with conspiracy theories or, at the very least, factually inaccurate claims; furthermore, he was the one who initiated the trolling regarding Mexico, not I.

And what is the epilogue to this discussion? A user who is the first to enter a debate with me and who actively trolls without providing a single shred of supporting information receives a two-day ban, yet I, having concluded the debate with the words "I really don't feel like it...", receive a one-month ban.

After I abandoned any further discussion, X appeared and dumped 100 points and a month-long ban on me, while that same colleague continued in a purely performative, trolling tone on a thread about Israel just two days later:

https://www.reddit.com/showpost.php?p=...postcount=7379

And then, once again, back to the Syria thread with the same repeated propaganda that has already been debunked countless times:

https://www.reddit.com/showpost.php?p=...postcount=3059

To claim that a criminal who has displaced two-thirds of the population enjoys the support of the people is utterly loathsome.

To speak of "what kind of prisons should exist" after images of thousands of tortured and murdered people have leaked from Assad's prisons, and to not punish this, is a disgrace.

People who condemn crimes are punished, while those who justify or deny them are rewarded.

I believe that this style of moderation, where a single moderator takes it upon himself to hand out month-long bans without consulting the other moderators, leads nowhere. Personally, I have spent nearly three months under ban since the beginning of the year, and it was entirely undeserved, solely because X believes he has the right to penalize me whenever he feels like it out of personal animosity toward me. Partiality will not stand, yet the "master" has decided to silence me with month-long bans and penalties of several hundred points.

You are all free to review all my penalties together and ask yourselves why, in the last more than a year, I have not received a single penalty from any other moderator, but only from the abrasive and vengeance-seeking X.

For a long time, I have witnessed double standards from the moderation and administration—specifically, the selective application of rules and the invention of new forbidden terms on the fly just so X can slap me with a ban and a penalty, yet none of you takes any action.

Here is an example from you.

A colleague who voiced the exact same grievance I did saw his appeal upheld, resulting in both his ban and his strike being wiped clean, yet somehow my situation remains unchanged.

https://www.reddit.com/showthread.php?t=1318635

My own appeal regarding this very same issue was processed just like any other, yet where is the justice in the outcome?

https://www.reddit.com/showpost.php?p=...postcount=1096
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
gentlestag15 said:Back in 2010, about 80% of India's arms imports came from Russia.
By 2020, that number had already dropped to 35%, and I'm pretty sure it's even lower now.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...rt-by-country/

Here is a link regarding the Indian military's reliance on Russian weaponry.

According to certain estimates, between 70% and 90% of their entire arsenal is Russian-made.

Indian Military dependence on Russia https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en...endence-russia
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Nathan Evans78 said:Oh, they'll care soon enough. Once a conflict breaks out over Taiwan, you can bet Western politicians will be sucking up to Indian leaders 24/7, desperate to drag them into some "good vs. evil" coalition. ☕

I would have argued previously that India would be forced to grovel to the West because their military is so heavily reliant on Russian hardware, but current trends suggest Russia is rapidly becoming nothing more than a puppet for China. This leads me to wonder: how exactly does Russia plan to sell weaponry to a Chinese adversary if they are being held firmly in Beijing's grip? Furthermore, one must consider whether the Russian defense industry—stripped of essential Western components—is even capable of anything more significant than supplying skirmishes between tribal factions in Africa.