Christian Torres3 said:There are absolutely factions. One group is basically just focused on getting filthy rich, and this war is a massive payday for them.
Generally speaking, anyone sitting just outside the inner sanctum of political power is focused on one thing: accumulating wealth through government contracts. Now, everything has been frozen. Given the current trajectory, most of those business avenues are going to vanish permanently. As for the capital they managed to park in the West? They can probably kiss that goodbye. Every nation is proficient at seizing assets—you just have to provide the pretext and the opportunity. This crowd was essentially forced to retreat back to Russia, and now they find themselves hovering near the same starting line they occupied at the beginning of their careers.
It has become painfully obvious that this war, which supposedly "proceeds according to plan," is actually stumbling along. They failed to exploit that crucial window of surprise during the first three days to break Ukraine, and as time drags on, the friction will only increase. There is no end in sight for the sanctions; they intensify daily, and frankly, I’m not sure what else is left to sanction. The people who grew accustomed to an easy life in the West are now stuck living under a strict regime in Moscow.
Since any significant shift in the status quo will inevitably require a change in the current administration—which has utterly exhausted its credibility—the future of these oligarchs, who tied their fates so tightly to the regime, is incredibly uncertain. That is, unless the next reshuffle of the deck allows them to bypass the leadership and renegotiate state relations to suit their own interests. However, they likely lack the muscle to pull off such a maneuver; without the involvement of intelligence services or military brass, an efficient takeover is impossible. Still, an attempt might occur. One only needs to recall how Boris Yeltsin ascended to power via a coup attempt, and how the establishment tried to pull the rug out from under him just a few years later in another attempted coup. The stakes are immense, but the potential reward for whoever wins this game is equally massive.