urbanotter said:My colleague Nancy Gomez26,
I am still sitting here waiting for an answer regarding how the current shortages, the skyrocketing cost of synthetic fertilizer, and the subsidized diesel—all triggered by the heavy sanctions placed on Russia—
will impact our own fall planting season here in the States, and whether Europe will ever truly achieve food self-sufficiency again.
I would also appreciate it if you could clarify which specific new scientific methods you are referring to, who exactly is conducting this research, and when farmers across Europe can actually expect to access them so they can operate with little to no reliance on synthetic fertilizers and diesel.
Who are these scientists? Because, frankly, everything these seven EU anti-samurai types have "invented" so far has just been turned into more sanctions, which has mostly just backfired.
Additionally, if you happen to have any intel on when the fertilizer factory in Indianapolis will resume operations,
since they reportedly halted production because natural gas became too expensive, I'd love to know what the approximate price per unit of fertilizer will be once they finally get back online.
And I’d ask that we move away from the "crushing boots" metaphors regarding who is being stepped on and by whom; we went quite extensively into that debate during our discussion about America. If you want to revisit that, let's take it over there. For now, let's stay focused right here on the sanctions and their actual fallout—looking specifically at the economies and food production of both those who imposed them and those who are feeling the brunt of them.🙂🙂
Sanctions and this entire situation impact production, profit margins, and food prices in two ways. One side is positive for us producers, as sanctions and war drive up market prices—benefiting the warring sides that act as grain exporters. The other side is negative, because the war partially drives up production inputs (though even this spike in grain prices and input costs began long before the February 2022 conflict). Which force prevails, I cannot say, but I suspect finished product prices will outpace input costs. Right now, things are relatively balanced. The biggest headache could occur if, for example, we run out of gas in the fall and can't dry the corn. Even then, there's a relatively simple alternative. Or if fuel runs out and autumn soil prep becomes impossible. These factors—fuel prices, food prices, gold prices—are deeply interconnected. When a barrel of oil is $30, a bushel of corn is $3; when a barrel hits $120, a bushel of corn hits $12. Input costs move in tandem. Since production operates on a relatively long cycle, you might plant using "old" prices and harvest at "new" ones, but by the next season, you'll be buying your supplies at the "new" prices. As I mentioned, prices were already climbing well before the conflict and the sanctions against Russia, so that certainly isn't the sole driver of inflation. But there is no doubt this situation fuels the rise.
As long as we live in an open market, it doesn't matter if America or the EU is self-sufficient—production always flows toward whoever is currently the best provider. In a closed market, that logic might hold weight, but then different market laws take over. If you have enough money, you won't go hungry. It has always been that way, and it will remain so.
Methods like no-till farming, green fertilizers, and integrating livestock with crop production have been known for quite some time; they're simply more refined now, and the benefits to agriculture are better understood. Industrial tillage is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. And of course, it is incomplete—heavily reliant on synthetic inputs. But it is a comfortable way to work; you get all your solutions ready-made, either from a bag or a bottle. You just apply it. And the people providing those bags and bottles charge accordingly. People complain about the cost, but they've been conditioned to it, quickly reaching a state where they have no idea how to escape the cycle. They become dependent on high yields because only such massive yields can justify the convenience of having someone else "think" for you—and charge you well for it. The more of these turnkey technological solutions you use, the more you invest, and the more you depend on a yield that must cover all those expenses. If I were to write out everything you might find in a purchased bag—all of it carrying legitimate certificates—hardly anyone would believe me. My own "homegrown" stock (specifically my soy) is always superior to what you buy. Not because I am smarter than the sellers, but because I pay attention to when the soy intended for seed is harvested. I pay attention because I know I will be replanting and harvesting that same soy again; it pays to be careful. They don't have to care; they're just moving volume. Of course, for that "homegrown" approach to work properly, it requires its own refinement. But that is a different conversation entirely. The main thing to understand is that these systems exist; it isn't some great mystery, even...Certain people are working on this here in America too —though it feels like progress is moving at a snail's pace. Anyone actually involved in the field, or even just curious, could easily find something online to get their bearings. If you keep a small backyard garden, try growing some tomatoes or peppers under a layer of mulch—just use some straw or grass clippings—and you’ll see the difference for yourself. This concept is essentially the same thing, just applied on an industrial scale. But that’s beside the point.
I have no clue what the current status is at the BASF plant in Indianapolis. All I know is they were looking for an owner, there was plenty of resistance, and things got complicated. From what I gather, they’ve slashed their workforce down to about a quarter of what it was before the war. Apparently, the union is quite powerful there and they have their own "unique" set of demands.
Since we operate in an open market—both for our finished goods and our inputs—what happens at that specific plant matters less than it used to. Personally, I prefer their fertilizers because they're locally produced, but quality and price are the ultimate deciders when making a purchase. If they meet those standards, I'll choose domestic production every single time. If they can't provide it, someone else will. You just need to have the capital.