Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Nathan Thomas12 said:Man, you've cooked up a whole lot of nonsense and you're fundamentally wrong. GDP is never measured in quantity; it is exclusively measured in currency.
GDP = C + I + G + (Imports - Exports).
C is household and business consumption.
I is investment.
G is government spending.
All of that is valued in currency, not volume. Let's say you and I live in a tiny 1,000 sq. ft. shack and produce 100 liters of oil a month. Is it the same whether we sell it for $5 a liter or $500 a liter?!
The only thing that skyrocketed in Russia was export value for oil and gas, even though the actual volume of exports decreased. Price is everything—it's about the value. Because oil and gas prices went through the roof, real GDP fell 4%, which means everything else crashed by double digits. Car production alone dropped by 97%.
Just look at how much higher gas prices are now compared to before the war.
I was looking at the nominal GDP, which fell 30% when measured in rubles, because that includes the currency's value.
Nominal GDP accounts for price fluctuations and exchange rates, making it a better indicator of actual purchasing power.
So, if I’m following your logic correctly: you took a percentage of growth or decline that applies specifically to real GDP, applied it to an entirely different metric—nominal GDP—then adjusted it for a specific currency, and now you’re claiming that this specific calculation somehow gives us a completely different eleventh parameter: purchasing power? 🙏
Let me walk through your example...
If we sell 100 barrels of oil at $5 each, we’ll end up having to take out loans just to cover our extraction costs and keep our heads above water... By taking on debt, we reduce available capital, the cost of capital rises, and investments dry up everywhere...
Total output: 100 barrels of oil.
But, if we sell those 100 barrels at $50 each, we have enough for bread, we pay some customs to the state, we don't have to dip into our savings just to survive, and thanks to taxes, we’ve funded the salary of a clerk at the local DMV who also gets to buy bread...
Total output: 100 barrels of oil, two loaves of bread, and a few investments from the rest of the population...
Now, if we sell those 100 barrels at $500 each, besides the bread, we’re buying lamb, we’re buying cars, we’re investing heavily, the government collects massive tax revenue, politicians are busy arguing over budget cuts, and we’ve created ten new jobs for clerks at the DMV...
Total output: 100 barrels of oil, plenty of bread, various investments, some lamb, a new car, a built oil reservoir, and maybe 10 miles of newly paved highway...
Yes, price can influence things (though it doesn't always have to), but the impact is indirect, and price isn't factored into real GDP... And real GDP is the only thing used to compare economic health over time...
It doesn't necessarily have to drive growth because you might not need to invest or indulge in luxury... It also might not work because inflation could simply eat up all your price gains, leaving you right back where you started with just enough for bread, despite selling at 10x the price... Or perhaps the appreciation of your currency will swallow the value of your exported oil, and you'll find you can still only afford bread in your own local currency...
And no, we haven't gained any insight into purchasing power from this... That’s something the experts will measure using entirely different methods...
Anyway, you go ahead and keep playing with your numbers, I won't bother you anymore...