CheckEmoji Community · the emoji forum
🏠 Home 🆕 What's new ❓ Unanswered 🔥 Popular 📡 RSS Members 👥 0 online log in · register
Home › Jack Hill2 › Posts

Posts by Jack Hill2

57 posts shown.

Eric Adams - Mayor of New York City, Part 4 in Political Scene ·
Necessary reforms:
1. We need to stop the theft during procurement and ensure public funds aren't being siphoned into private pockets. If someone gets caught stealing, they should be forced to pay it back and face real consequences...

2. Job openings must go to the most qualified candidates, not just Cronies looking for a handout. Promotions should be based on merit, not loyalty...

3. Eliminate redundant positions that clearly exist only to provide jobs for relatives. There is zero chance those roles are actually productive...

This transformation won't happen overnight—we're talking about a process spanning 20 to 30 years, essentially an entire generation of students. But this only works if the justice system actually functions consistently across the whole country. New York City isn't the center of the universe...
Eric Adams - Mayor of New York City, Part 4 in Political Scene ·
cosmicskipper39 said:I found this expense report.

It says they’re ordering 73,330 brooms.

Based on what the news has been saying about past purchases of those Brezov brand brooms, it looks like they're buying them for all the different branches under the New York City municipal umbrella and the sanitation department.

So it's based $8.25per broom, yet she just fabricated this whole narrative about $67per broom costs.

At the very least, an apology is overdue...

How many was Bandić's procurement actually for?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Oil prices are dropping again, sitting at $93 right now.

The last time we saw $90 was back in January 2022...
Eric Adams - Mayor of New York City, Part 4 in Political Scene ·
By showing up at Maksimir, Eric Adams is signaling that his ambitions run much deeper than people realize. I don't see it any other way... It’s too early for definitive calls, but if you ask me, his reach goes even further than Bandić's.

Maybe I'm reading the room wrong, but I don't think anyone else in politics is this willing to get their hands dirty. He isn't just wading through the muck with the likes of Bandić, Mamić, Pripuz, Andrej Plenković, and Markić... it actually feels like he thrives in it. Like he's just waiting for the next fight.

He seems terribly "driven by success."

Everyone seems focused on the criticism, but to me, this looks less like him securing a new mandate and more like him ensuring there won't be a serious challenger in the next election. I suspect he’ll walk right over any standard candidate from the Republican Party or the Democratic Party...

People have a tendency to hand power to individuals like him.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
steelfox98 said:It would be great to have that Libyan oil right now, but we trashed the country instead. Damn.
Well, it would be great to have oil from Venezuela, too, but we tried to pull off a bloody coup there just like we did in Ukraine—a failed attempt that only managed to rally about 1,000 people out of a population of 30 million. We tried to assassinate Maduro, and that flopped, too. We dabbled in some counter-terrorism, caught a few guys. Very democratic stuff.
No point talking much about Iran.
MBS, an American ally, has been ignoring Biden's calls for months. Now, after everything Sleepy said, he’s got to swallow his pride and go begging in Riyadh.
And then we act surprised when our dear savior Borrell whines at the G20 summit about how the world doesn't understand us.
The global battle of narratives is in full swing and, for now, we are not winning. As the EU, we have to engage further to refute Russian lies and war propaganda.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/g20-...ilateralism_en

After a month of lying about how the Russians intentionally throttled gas flow while dodging questions about that controversial turbine, they're suddenly sending it back from service.

If the base amount A starts out higher, it stays ahead forever. Doesn't matter how fast the other side grows. I saw this play out once with a hedge fund client back in Chicago—growth rates are just noise if you aren't starting from the right position. Simple math. Cold, hard reality.
This kind of twisted math—where they can't even distinguish between growth rates and actual totals—belongs in a picture frame. I've seen some nonsense in my time, but this? Truly unique.
Just look at where China stood compared to the West forty years ago versus where they are today. It’s staggering. As for why they're outpacing us, it comes down to their entire culture—not that anyone bothered to write enough about it back then. Sure, starting from nothing gave them a massive advantage, but let's be real: they're closing the gap fast.

[User Not Found] [User Name] says:
My humble take? Putin will just keep playing this balancing act—trying to squeeze enough revenue to stay afloat while constantly screwing over the EU. A third of the supply isn't enough to build up any real reserves, but it’s just enough to keep the EU hooked on gas. He'll keep making threats, trying to walk into winter with as much leverage as possible to jack up the prices. Seen it all before.
Germany's stance on Putin and Russia is a mess. Disappointing, really. If it were up to Annalena, she’d have cut off that Russian gas supply in a heartbeat. I remember seeing similar hesitation back when we dealt with energy shifts in the States—just endless stalling.

We’ve all sat here reading those dire warnings from German experts about how this would trigger a massive recession. Even Robert Habeck said as much. Since he's the Secretary of Commerce, he's coming from the same party line. Given her track record and everything she's said lately, it's hardly surprising they pushed her to the back burner these last few months.
Ninety-five percent of the chemical industry relies on gas. Everything else just hooks onto those derivatives. Some sectors depend on it directly, too. It’s all a mess. We're looking at a projected 5 million unemployed. Just another day in this economy.

I don't know what to tell you. Just more noise in an already loud room. It’s all just going in circles. [User Name] says:
Putin has been pulling the strings on European politicians for ages through those non-market gas price concessions. It’s the same old story. I remember seeing similar backroom deals during my time working in DC; once the energy supply is leveraged, the sovereignty vanishes. Pure cynicism.

It’s the same old story. It’s like letting Russia hand-pick their own Prime Minister. I've seen this movie before.

After he sells out his own country to benefit Russia and finishes his term, I'm sure Putin will have a cushy job waiting for him at Gazprom. Typical.

Therein lies the fundamental divide between the American free-market system—which the Russian mafia types love to trash—and that shady Russian "godfather" alternative. I've seen enough of these power plays to know how they work.

Putin can offer his resources however he pleases, but the EU—like any sovereign nation wanting to remain so—should be defending such practices on their own end.

Is it really Germany's fault for choosing the cheapest supplier, someone who kept them supplied with cheap gas for 20 years just to stay competitive?
It's hardly a coincidence that after prices hit the stratosphere, Germany—after 30 years—had a month where they actually imported more than they exported.

You made an inaccurate claim, so per the forum rules, it's on you to provide a link.
Besides, it isn't hard to verify how their population has increased over the last 10 years (excluding Crimea), whereas we recently had our census and saw how things truly stand.

I don't know if these statistics were coincidentally taken from the last 4 weeks, but Russia just slashed deliveries by 60% during that specific window due to turbine maintenance. So, the picture looks quite different.

I don't know the exact reason behind the supply drops. I highly doubt America would reject higher volumes from Russia just to fill up storage, only to then scale back imports while simultaneously increasing imports from other nations. It's more likely that Russia is simply applying pressure through these reduced shipments...

But the bottom line remains the same, regardless of the cause. By ramping up imports from other countries, America has already made up for everything except about 14% of Russian gas. If they can bump those imports up a few more points, increase domestic production slightly, or swap out a few other energy sources, America will be down to only 7-8% dependence on Russia by next year. That doesn't leave much leverage for them... If I recall correctly, the media often pushes the idea that dropping the thermostat by one degree equals a 5% savings...

So, what exactly is Putin going to threaten America with next winter? That homes will be kept at 70 degrees instead of 72?...

There is still this year left for threats and blackmail. But for next year, he's already played his hand...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
darkdriver said:Hey, do you happen to have a table for the winter period? Like, maybe a 4-week stretch from mid-month one to mid-month two?
Just to see what the gas imports looked like last year during that specific timeframe—we can check the upcoming ones later.
Thanks in advance!

It isn't the imports that fluctuate, but the consumption. Demand is lower in the summer, so storage gets filled up. In the winter, demand spikes and reserves are drawn down. But import levels remain relatively steady throughout both seasons.

The numbers for these countries stay roughly the same all year long. You might see minor shifts depending on maintenance schedules, but nothing significant.

I focused on those last four weeks because I wanted to see if Europe was actually making progress in reducing its reliance on Russia or if they were just bluffing. It seems Europe is staying quiet and simply getting the job done regarding energy. The Germans aren't exactly idiots...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
gentlestag15 said:You also have to keep in mind that the EU produces about 20% of its own needs
and that percentage is going up given how prices look right now.
Last year, America produced 30% of its own gas needs.
With new gas fields opening up in the Midwest, that should climb to 40% this year.

Plus, ExxonMobil is set to open a few more wells in the Adriatic Sea, so we're looking at 50% domestic gas production by next year.
http://www.energetika-net.com/vijest...-jadranu-34994

That makes the Russian influence even weaker. They only account for 14% of the supply right now. If they drop to 7-8% over the next year, Putin won't be able to bark for a long time...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
By next year, gas dependency on Russia will drop to just 10%. That doesn't grant them any real leverage for blackmailing us. Even if they cut everything off entirely, we’d just pivot to other energy sources to cover that 10% gap... It's manageable. Households might see slightly higher electric bills or a bit less heat, but that's about it.

The Germans claim they can reach full energy independence by 2024, which is only 17 months away.

In short, whatever Putin tries to pull this winter won't matter much. His time is running out...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Gas imports: Then vs. Now (weekly average over the last 4 weeks)

2022
LNG 2,732 (38.4%)
Norway 2,711 (38.1%)
Russia 1,009 (14.2%)
Algeria 660 (9.3%)
__________________________
Total: 7,112

2021
Russia 3,057 (41.2%)
Norway 2,018 (27.2%)
LNG 1,654 (22.2%)
Algeria 701 (9.4%)
__________________________
Total: 7,430

Currently, Europe has sourced 6,103 out of the 7,430 units imported during this same period last year from sources other than Russia. This means Europe's reliance on Russia has dropped from 40% down to just 17%.

Meanwhile, Russian gas exports to Europe have plummeted from 3 billion to 1 billion...

Counting oil doesn't make sense here. Europe isn't dependent on Russia for oil at all. By the end of the year, 98% of oil will be imported from other sources.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
And I'm not just talking to you, but speaking generally here. This is easily the hundredth time someone shares a link in one context, only for me to click it and find something entirely different. Then you go to Google and realize the article itself was biased from the start, leaving out key facts, denials, and everything else...

Honestly, I can click a link and already know it's garbage.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
brightheron64 said:If you dig just a little bit deeper (check Reuters)...

"But while the world grapples with one of the worst supply crises ever, industry insiders, sources within OPEC, and other experts are questioning whether Saudi Arabia really has another 1.5 million barrels per day up its sleeve, given their current production of at least 10.5 million barrels per day that could be brought online quickly and sustainably.

Adding to the skepticism regarding spare capacity, Saudi Arabia is pumping below its OPEC quota despite near-record oil prices, and OPEC data shows that new drilling in the kingdom last year remained significantly below pre-pandemic levels.

A high-level industry source who recently spoke with management at the state-owned Saudi oil giant ExxonMobil (2222.SE) told him that the company has at most an additional 1 million bpd of easily accessible spare capacity.

"If pressure builds, ExxonMobil has 1 million bpd that can hit the market relatively fast, but that won't be sustainable for very long" , according to the source.

At the time of the meeting, ExxonMobil was producing 10.5 million bpd, which implies their production couldn't jump past 11.5 million bpd. The source declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

To be perfectly honest, it doesn't much matter to you or me because, whatever happens, happens...

The only reason I’m even stepping into this part of the debate is because of my deep conviction that the team responsible for drafting these sanctions did such a half-baked, sloppy job—honestly, nothing better than the Russian "special operation."

The article you linked clearly states they can't increase capacity for at least six months, not that they lack the ability entirely. Those countries shot down those claims immediately, noting that what they told Emmanuel Macron was that they couldn't hike production instantly due to the OPEC+ agreement expiring at the end of the year. So, it isn't even a technical limitation on production; they are simply honoring the existing production quotas...

I don't understand why you insist on feeding us nothing but half-truths and completely twisted contexts.

It's foolish, truly foolish. If you're going to share something with this forum, at least put in some effort.

You're linking a junk headline that implies Middle Eastern countries lack sufficient production capacity. In reality:
1. They have enough capacity and could increase it right now.
2. They are currently respecting the OPEC+ agreement, which expires in 4-5 months. To boost production immediately, they would just need a new agreement.

Think about it for a second, and you'll realize I'm right. There is no point in serving news the way you are. People see these junk headlines when browsing portals on their own; if you're going to post them here, you should provide meaningful context and the full story, not just clickbait.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
hollowdriver13 said:When prices spike, everything follows the Crude oil futures, but when it’s time for them to drop, they start trading based on whatever is happening in the "Mediterranean market."

That isn’t even the whole story. Prices for all construction materials have cratered. For instance, iron dropped from $2,100 down to $1,300 over the last few months, and aluminum is following suit...

Where are all those promises from developers about housing becoming more affordable? They claimed prices were spiking because "rebar costs went up"...

Now that costs have actually fallen, they just stay quiet and keep the prices high. It's classic greed... taking advantage of everyone else...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
mellowsurfer14 said:I’ve been reading that some of the smaller gas stations across the US are shutting down, leaving people stranded without diesel.

Oil prices have tanked; it hit $98 today. The last time crude was under $100 back in early April, fuel prices were $4.00 at the pumps. Now I can't even get by on $4.50?

It’s that old pattern where exchange prices climb and fuel follows, but when oil drops, they claim there isn't a direct link... 😁

One should also consider that ExxonMobil is seeing record profits this year. In the United Kingdom, they just announced a 25% windfall tax specifically targeting oil traders to recoup those massive gains.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
swiftjackal11 said:I wonder how low the barrel price needs to drop before we see gas under $3.25🤷

That depends entirely on how much the government robs you.

In Poland, $100 a barrel equals $3.25 fuel.

In America, I suspect it needs to hit about $75. The government and ExxonMobil are seeing record profits from all this struggle at the pump...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
If the world slides into a recession this fall, I’ll be right back at it—just selling ExxonMobil like I did in 2008.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Bryan Booth82 said:This nation emerged as the ultimate lifeline to replace Russian oil. Massive tankers are flooding into Europe now that Americans have lifted export bans and sanctions.

lp

Was Russian oil ever actually a major issue? Imports were only at 20%, and there are plenty of alternatives out there...

It clearly isn't that difficult to replace Russian oil, considering the European Union set its own import sanctions that kick in just a few months from now...

Natural gas is the real issue. And that problem really boils down to one word: Germany. They caused this mess themselves, and now they have to fix it. I highly doubt the Germans will ever feel the pinch. They claim they won't need Russian gas in 16 months. We'll see if that holds up...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Oil is down to $106 a barrel. It's been sliding for two weeks now.

If you consider a standard price range to be somewhere between $70 and $80, we aren't actually that far off...
Side hustle vs. full-time job: Tax implications and tips? in Business, Accounting & Taxes ·
Case 2 is pretty straightforward. It’s a small business owner who also holds a regular job elsewhere. There’s no monthly payroll tax filing; instead, contributions are settled at year-end based on reported income, capped at what they would owe if they weren't employed elsewhere.

I don't know Case 1 off the top of my head. I'd need to dig through the IRS code and specific regulations to be sure. If it's handled like Case 2, it sounds like there might be a loophole to lower the business taxes by reporting minimal hours at the main job, but I doubt the authorities would allow that... Need to read up on it (not feeling it right now, though. Let me know if you find out, I'm genuinely curious).
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
hollowdriver13 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttech...C9nZmT9dgqAAAA

Look, it's not like Russia is some honest-to-god legitimate government that has zero intention of trying to annex everything they grab... right? And then you see a headline on Gazeta.ru basically bragging about how the grain harvest from the Kherson region is going to lead to a record-breaking year for their profits.

Pipe dreams are coming true.

It’s like if the Midwest became the breadbasket for a different nation, or if a landlocked state suddenly gained access to the Atlantic coast. For the average person there, it's a point of pride. A way to validate the strength of a Great Russia...

That’s just the nature of the people, and we've seen this playbook before. I get why someone from Monaco might find it shocking, but in the States, we understand how this works...
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Drew Fowler4 said:If you truly believe that Putin is just some reactive, uneducated idiot, then I think you’ve seriously misjudged the situation.

Are you suggesting this was the intended outcome for the entire operation in Ukraine? There is absolutely no way.

The plan was a blitzkrieg on Kyiv—a total surrender of the military. Those "Nazis" out east who refuse to back down would have been easily neutralized from behind once Kyiv fell, framed as extremists who spent eight years sowing discord among their own people. And what would the West have done? Barked at the moon? Especially when faced with threats to cut off oil and gas supplies... likely aided by a few bribed traitors within Western democracies.

Think back to how this started. "Just exercises, we aren't attacking"—then suddenly paratroopers are seizing airports, an invasion is staged from Belarus, and more than half the force moves to encircle Kyiv. They even called on the Ukrainian Armed Forces to stop fighting for a government that had already fled, urging them to lay down their arms to avoid bloodshed. It was obvious what the goal was... it certainly wasn't the stalemate they're stuck in now.

They simply didn't anticipate this level of Ukrainian resistance or the Western reaction. In the end, he's stuck on a front line that's largely unchanged for eight years, facing military humiliation and heavy sanctions, with the EU threatening to cut off trade entirely. He thought he could hold Europe hostage over energy resources...

A complete fiasco for Putin. But the war is still ongoing; let's wait two or three years, and everything will be much clearer.