Posts by Richard Wilson4

Ambientt said:We all know that the whole thing boiled over during those NATO talks in Washington, D.C. back in 2008, when they went promising membership to Ukraine and Georgia. Not long after that, we saw the short war in Georgia, and then a few years later, things kicked off in eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, Russia.

Honestly, I think if NATO hadn't made those promises, there wouldn't have been a war in Georgia or even what's happening in Ukraine right now.

If that's how you see it, you're being pretty naive.
But hey, it's your opinion.

restlessmason54 said:Ultimately, time is going to reveal exactly what we already suspect: just how much economic resilience Russia actually possesses against external pressures and those heavy-handed sanctions, contrasted against the glaring fragility—and frankly, the blatant dependency—of the European Union's economy.

If you listen to the trolls haunting this thread, Russia should have completely imploded financially ages ago; yet, despite all their predictions, that big bear is holding its ground remarkably well. It’s really just a matter of waiting for the very same countries that tried to squeeze them through sanctions to start feeling the pinch and looking for ways to ease up.😉

And let’s be clear, the fallout is going to be a two-way street.

Is that why the Russians haven't opened up their stock exchange yet?

Walter Baker2 said:Does Lviv just lack an airfield or a highway, apparently?

Then where are they gonna go overnight?

You really should've had this plan ready before the invasion started, not after the fact...

Iran and Venezuela are stepping up to help Ukraine.
I bet the Russia-lovers will come up with some pretty wild excuses for this one...

hollowdriver13 said:https://financialpost.com/commoditie...modity-firms?r

China is looking into picking up stakes in Russian energy giants and companies focused on raw material extraction and refining.
Looks like Russia is officially being reeled in by the Chinese supply chain.

Man, you can practically hear the Chinese rubbing their hands together...

goldendrifter11 said:

The deal would involve Ukraine receiving Russian-made warplanes from Germany, which would in turn be given F-16s by the US.

That sounds like a massive win for Poland. 👍

Do we still have any of those MiGs left in the inventory? 🙂

(And here's the link to the article—it’s free to read, no paywall.

Honestly, I don't think it'll lead to anything.
I doubt those planes are actually showing up, at least not during this stage of the war.

Terry Hernandez10 said:Word is out that Putin has instructed his cabinet to draw up a definitive list of all the nations that have slapped sanctions on Russia—targeting its companies, organizations, and specific individuals alike.

So, how exactly does he plan to strike back this time?

Just more empty threats along the lines of what Kim does.

Nancy Bishop2 said:I'm looking at the GDP per country:

Germany 4,230,172 (million USD)
United Kingdom 3,108,416
France 2,940,428
Italy 2,120,232
Russia 1,647,568

And here are the percentages being set aside for defense spending
Germany 1.4%
United Kingdom 2.2%
France 2.1%
Italy 1.6%
Russia 4.3%

Based on these numbers, Germany's total expenditure is barely lower than what Russia pours into its military. Even though those four major European powers completely dwarf Russia in scale, they still act like total pushovers.

All these EU leaders are basically stuck in a 1968 mindset. They’re living in a total daydream, and that’s exactly why they've kept their militaries intentionally weak. It's by design.

This is going to change everything. Seriously.

Morgan Brown4 said:How long do you think these sanctions actually stick once the war is over?
Would they stay in place if Putin comes out on top? Like, if we just end up back at the pre-February status quo? Or maybe even going back to how things were before 2014? Or is this something that stays active until Putin finally steps down?

That's a pretty interesting question.

Looks like Lviv is getting all set up to become the backup capital.

I reckon if we just build up a massive, heavily armed fortress out West—something so solid that even Russia couldn't crack it with their best shots—we’d be set. We just sit tight, let the sanctions do their thing, and wait out the months or maybe even years until Russia finally hits the breaking point. Simple as that.

silverotter72 said:I'd love to see some actual proof for that. It seems unlikely that nobody would have snapped a photo of that mess, and honestly, it’s even harder to believe that the Germans would store weaponry like that. They aren't like America.

I've been digging through some articles—probably all hype, though—but apparently their military was basically a joke and they were failing miserably at just about everything.

Christian Torres3 said:There is way too much at stake for Russia to just stay the course. It’s really just a matter of how long it takes to snap Putin's grip on power.

I remember reading somewhere that his entire cabinet—all fifteen of them—are over 65 years old.

Basically, you’ve got a crew that’s more focused on the Cold War than anything happening in the modern world.

Carl Sanders5 said:You guys are being way too optimistic about these sanctions, honestly. I’m not seeing it. Russians are used to this stuff; it's practically part of their routine. How long did the Cold War even last? Over 30 years, right? And they still functioned just fine.

There are over 30 million people living out in Siberia. Every single year, they deal with summer water shortages and three-month stretches of winter gas rationing when it hits -40. They know exactly what poverty feels like.

As for the middle class—whose quality of life is about to tank—they’re just going to bail. We're already hearing reports that trains heading from Russia toward Norway are packed to capacity.

Sure, the economy will take a massive hit in the long run, but IMO? Don't hold your breath for some big political breakthrough. It's a long shot.

We aren't talking about 1989 here.

Russians aren't Spartans who can just survive on bread and water.

There are some, sure—just like you'd find in Japan or Canada—but for the average Russian, life is definitely going to get a lot worse.
It sucks, honestly, but hey, it puts the pressure on the regime.

brightheron64 said:I'm right there with you on that point, honestly... I mean, why wouldn't they? It feels like the only real metric used was whoever happened to be holding the nuclear football at the time...

So why not just throw Pakistan into the mix?

Or India, which honestly has an economy that rivals Russia's superpower status anyway.

silverotter72 said:No, actually, everything is just fine—"Russia will endure, but the European Union won't." 🤣
It’s honestly quite sad that there are actual human beings out there who genuinely believe that.

I honestly think like 90% of those Russia-lovers don't even believe this nonsense. They just want to look cool and edgy...

Russia used to be this major player, sitting at the big table with the European Union, the USA, and China, having an equal say in everything. Now? It’s basically turned into North Korea, where all anyone talks about is sanctions and nuclear threats...

For anyone out there who thinks Russians are just naturally built for hardship, check out what this young guy from Russia has to say.



So, the guy's a YouTuber living off international subscribers, but he really laid out exactly what went down with his bank and his life savings.

hollowdriver13 said:Look, the sanctions back during Crimea versus what we're seeing now are two completely different beasts. Those old ones were basically just targeted slaps on the wrist meant to give people the illusion of punishment.

If they had rolled this stuff out right after Crimea, everything would be a million times better for everyone right now.

But back then, we had Mutta.

And honestly, she’d pull the exact same moves today too, so don't kid yourselves...

briskdrifter3 said:Regarding the defense of the ruble and their overall reserve situation... frankly, we can't just assume they didn't see these sanctions coming.
They almost certainly factored both the sanctions and the currency devaluation into the cost they were prepared to pay.
Especially after everything that happened following the sanctions over Crimea. They weathered one blow, and they were undoubtedly braced for this second one...

The only real uncertainty is whether they've underestimated the scale of it, though from where I'm sitting, it doesn't look like they have.

So let me get this straight. Russia, where half the economy is basically just pumping oil and gas, and even if they had an economy the size of Spain (or maybe some mid-sized US state), they actually think they can win an economic war against the heavy hitters like the European Union, the USA, Japan, and Australia?

Morgan Morales4 said:I feel like this belongs in some specific niche column or something. I honestly can’t wrap my head around how they’re connecting cats to these killer sanctions.

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Look, people are just grasping at straws these days.

If their national soccer team gets banned, they're gonna get booted from all sorts of other international competitions too.

Arthur Watson4 said:Absolutely. And it’s not even just the Putin supporters—so many people truly don't understand that ratio.

When I posted here a month ago saying Russia’s economy is basically on par with Spain, the pro-Russia crowd lost their minds.

But they couldn't care less about the actual economics. I can only imagine how much it stings right now, seeing their "military superpower" struggle so hard against the Ukrainians while they're busy dreaming about reaching the Atlantic for two days...

There are some decent people in that group, too. Some just genuinely believe he's this "leader protecting his people," but hey, maybe this will finally give them a reality check.

Richard Cooper3 said:What are they going to get back? Something that wasn't even theirs to begin with—Khrushchev gave them Crimea by decree back in '54 just to make administration easier. And they were gifted New Russia by Lenin exactly 100 years ago. Then Maidan happened just 8 years ago. You see, the Kremlin loves symbolism.
Ukrainians have known since 2014 that Crimea is gone for good—they should probably thank Victoria Nuland for that.
Those gas fields near Crimea? I doubt they could ever replace Russian reserves. Gas is just one small link in the whole UK/US vs. Russia conflict. In this scenario, the EU is basically like Paraguay, Botswana, or Laos. ☕
Arming Ukraine? I mean, all those anti-aircraft systems might not even matter if Russia manages to trap them in pockets before they even arrive. I guess you have to wonder how they'll actually get the gear delivered. And honestly, I don't really get why these European countries were so quiet when there was still a chance to prevent this whole mess. It’s like they were just sleeping through everything and suddenly woke up once the Russian invasion actually started.
Then again, people are probably going to blame Moscow for what comes next, because this isn't going to go on forever.

Great.

So when are the Russians giving back f***ed Königsberg?