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Posts by Jeremy Turner9

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Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Nathan Thomas12 As stated by:
When you look at the sheer scale of the African continent, encompassing fifty-four distinct nations, it remains striking to realize that their combined GDP still doesn't even reach half of what Japan produces.

Richard Wilson4 As stated by:
It feels like an endless exercise in futility trying to explain these nuances to those who subscribe blindly to Chomskyan linguistics.

hollowdriver13 As stated by:
🤔

I am somewhat at a loss; I find myself struggling to grasp the core of what you are attempting to convey.

There is another reason why you can't purchase more than $10,000 at a time, and it has nothing to do with the idea that foreign currency is somehow "strangling" the domestic economy. 🤦

If they lack the necessary outlets for their capital, their imports will inevitably suffer; if one has been paying close attention, it becomes clear that Russia is increasingly conducting trade with other nations using local currencies rather than relying on traditional Western systems.
They were busy selling off energy assets while simultaneously building up their strategic reserves...

Is it possible to pick up some Rubles while you're here in Washington, D.C., and if so, where exactly would one find a use for them?

The current trajectory of the Russian economy suggests a complex interplay between superficial resilience and deep-seated structural vulnerabilities. While some analysts point to high levels of state spending and redirected trade flows as evidence of stability, this perspective often overlooks the erosion of long-term industrial capacity and the mounting pressures placed on the domestic manufacturing sector. Much like a large corporation that maintains its quarterly dividends by aggressively liquidating its core assets or taking on unsustainable debt, the outward appearance of growth can mask a significant decline in fundamental health. The heavy reliance on energy exports remains a double-edged sword. Although increased demand from certain Asian markets provides a temporary lifeline, the necessity of offering steep discounts to maintain volume creates a precarious fiscal environment. We see a scenario where the state is essentially subsidizing its own survival through a constant, exhausting cycle of pivoting supply chains, which ultimately drains the very resources needed for modernization. It is reminiscent of an aging infrastructure system being kept afloat by patchwork repairs rather than meaningful investment; eventually, the cost of maintenance will outpace the ability to pay for it. Furthermore, the tightening of labor markets and the brain drain resulting from geopolitical shifts pose a quiet but existential threat to future innovation. When a nation’s most skilled professionals seek opportunities elsewhere, the intellectual capital required to transition toward a more diversified economy evaporates. This loss isn't just a statistical shift in employment data; it is a slow hemorrhage of the specialized talent that drives technological progress. Without a robust foundation of human capital, any attempt at economic restructuring will likely remain superficial, leaving the country caught in a loop of reactive policy rather than proactive development.

He took a thirty-five percent hit on his imports...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
I don't have the time to hunt down specific links right now...

Russia is preparing to ramp up production, and if they have to revert to the industrial scales seen back in the 1980s to make it happen, they will...

They have amassed such massive foreign exchange reserves that they are actually weighing down the ruble and stifling their own economy. It's reached a point where one could theoretically walk away with over $10,000 in cash. They attempted to offload some of this capital onto the Chinese, but the Chinese aren't interested because of the complexities surrounding their own currency; from what I understand, countries like Turkey are much more desperate for that kind of liquidity...

Within the European Union, the actual impact of sanctions on the Russian economy has become a secondary concern for us. We aren't trading with them, we aren't lending them money, we have no desire to accept their investments, and we certainly have no interest in investing in Russia ourselves. The fundamental paradigm has shifted: we simply no longer hold any economic or financial stake in Russia or its affairs.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Nathan Thomas12 said:The entire continent of Africa—all 54 countries combined—has a GDP that’s barely half of what Japan pulls in.

Richard Wilson4 said:It's just hard explaining basic math to those Chomsky types...

If we had applied that same logic to Russia—claiming they had the GDP of Spain and zero impact on the global economy—we would be missing the forest for the trees.

At its core, this issue revolves around currency relations and exchange dynamics; however, we must recognize that these are resource-rich nations where the Saudi and Russian economies generate significant wealth, and where the African labor force holds immense potential if properly utilized. The fundamental hurdle is not a lack of value, but rather the difficulty of securing access to global capital markets and international trade networks.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
The wealthy are making their exits, and they certainly won't be picking up rifles to fight...

Desperate Russians touch down in Mexico City: 'We're terrified, Putin is a killer'; Vučić insists: 'He isn't bluffing!'

They are fleeing to Mexico, a nation where support for Putin is openly displayed...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
hollowdriver13 said:So, Russia is basically asking the UN🤣 to get the EU to back off on those sanctions against them. Their "peace offering"? They’re supposedly willing to hand over 300,000 tons of fertilizer to developing nations to help ease the global food crisis—even though there aren't even any sanctions on fertilizer to begin with. Just a move to soften the blow, I guess.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacifi...states/2686720

Call Putin a humanitarian if you want, but clearly, those sanctions just aren't doing much.

Nancy Gomez26 said:This is purely for domestic consumption—an attempt to paint a picture where "the whole world is against them." They know perfectly well that those sanctions aren't going anywhere. Instead, they’re building a classic straw man argument: claiming that a "cruel West" is blocking them from donating fertilizer to developing countries, thereby intentionally triggering global famine. It’s thin. Thinner than thin. But it beats doing nothing; you have to stir the pot if you can't win the fight. This wouldn't even pass muster in an elementary school classroom, but this particular propaganda machine requires some semblance of a "logical" explanation to function. If you broadcast the same lie long enough while choking off all other information channels, eventually, people start believing it.

As far as anyone knows, the ports remain completely blocked, so if there is an intention to donate fertilizer, it might be better if Russia simply provides it themselves.

It’s much like the grain situation—that whole narrative about providing for the poor and the hungry—how can we ignore it? It was noted that the global grain trade is essentially a monopoly held by four secretive American families, known by the acronym ABCD, who, interestingly enough, haven't pulled their operations out of Russia at all, but instead continue to conduct business there quite normally.

I find it difficult to grasp how anyone could oppose providing aid to those suffering from poverty and hunger. It seems fundamentally counterintuitive. One has to wonder if this resistance stems from the broader agenda often associated with the US and Gates—the idea that the world is becoming too crowded. If that is indeed the underlying motivation, then everything becomes clear: any attempt by Russia to perform a humanitarian gesture is immediately met with hostility. This recent offer is truly a terrible thing to see dismissed.🍿
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
electricsurfer47 said:I’ve got an idea for this "great Humanitarian"... why doesn't he just stop the War and pull his troops out?? That’s the whole reason the sanctions exist in the first place. They didn't happen because he wants to sell fertilizer.

But the real question remains: is there actually any document that could provide Russia with those kinds of guarantees, and more importantly, who would be responsible for drafting such an agreement and which parties would ultimately sign off on it?

The War will only conclude once military operations reach their natural end and negotiations finally get underway; if it weren't for the continuous support and assistance provided by the USA to Ukraine, this conflict likely would have been settled within the very first week.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Southern Natural Gas Pipeline

Nabucco pipeline

Looking at two failed endeavors, Nabucco was essentially an EU project... yet Russia managed to push through Nord Stream 2...

It seems quite clear that the EU has shifted toward being more market-oriented rather than driven by political ideology...
Energy security and food stability—global hunger isn't merely an economic failure, but a political one. Financial experts and economists possess the tools to solve those specific issues; economics is fundamentally about managing scarce resources...

Russia is violating its obligations to the WTO through import bans and substitution policies.

The report indicates that bilateral trade cooperation between the USA and Russia regarding agricultural products has been restricted since 2014, following Russian actions in eastern Ukraine.

The agency noted that they will continue meeting with industry stakeholders to discuss their concerns and develop strategies to dismantle such obstacles.

Notably, the report makes no mention of any new American trade measures that might be taken against Russia should President Vladimir Putin invade Ukraine.

Should that occur, US officials are considering strict export controls designed to disrupt the Russian economy, according to a Biden administration official; this could potentially include halting the import of Russian smartphones as well as critical components for aircraft and automobiles.


Since Russia only joined the WTO in 2012, it simply hasn't had enough time to exert significant influence over international trade...

Americans push the rest of the world to impose sanctions on Russia, yet now they have admitted to bypassing them themselves: just look at what they are still trading.

It is reported that the USA has not imposed sanctions on the export or import of mineral fertilizers to and from Russia. On the other hand, while imports of seafood from Russia are banned, there is no prohibition on the import of fish, seafood, or products of Russian origin into other countries, nor their subsequent import into the USA.

Furthermore, the export of agricultural equipment and spare parts remains permitted, as do transactions involving the insurance of transport and shipments of agricultural goods, including synthetic fertilizers. Beyond that, medical devices, goods, and pharmaceuticals can still be traded.


Russia has only been a member of the WTO since 2012, and by 2014, they were already facing various forms of sanctions...

While the USA feels frustrated with China, this situation with Russia provides no relief... We saw how things played out with Iraq, where nothing was achieved in Afghanistan, and then we saw the instability caused by the Arab Spring in Libya and Syria... meanwhile, the European Union is grappling with migrant pressures...

The reason the EU turned away from Russian gas and oil was precisely because of the market instability caused by those political interventions...

Nowadays, few people truly understand the history of ExxonMobil and why they operated two refineries—it was all about diversification, sourcing oil from Africa, the Middle East, and even during the White Nights in Siberia back in the 90s... It’s a story of shifting priorities: first the sale of the White Night assets, then the sale of ExxonMobil to MOL, the eventual abandonment of certain ventures, a growing reliance on Russian oil, the withdrawal from Syrian fields, and finally, under MOL's management, the closure of one refinery and the constant delays in modernizing the other...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Anthony Hill5 said:I wasn't even surprised to see you reaching for Russian propaganda about "evil Ukrainians" stealing Russian gas, though there isn't a single shred of evidence to support that claim beyond Russian "honor," and we all know how little their word is worth.

In reality, Gazprom lost every single legal dispute against Naftogaz in court and was forced to pay billions of dollars in damages.

Ukraine's Naftogaz claims $ 2.56 billion victory in Gazprom legal battle

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1GC2Z8

Ukraine scores major win over Russia and Gazprom

Ukraine received a useful fillip on February 28 when the Stockholm Court of Arbitration ruled in favor of the state gas supply and transit company, Naftogaz, and against its Russian counterpart, Gazprom, in a four-year dispute over gas transit. The court awarded Naftogaz $4.63 billion in damages, finding that Gazprom failed to pump agreed upon volumes through Ukraine’s pipeline system, thereby depriving it of transit revenues. An earlier ruling against Ukraine over the 2009 “take or pay” gas supply contract for $2 billion means the net payment due to Naftogaz is $2.56 billion, or more than 3 percent of Ukraine’s GDP.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...a-and-gazprom/

So, it turns out the Ukrainians weren't stealing gas; rather, the Russians were simply under-delivering while still demanding full payment.

True, but these articles also mention this (via Google Translate):

In previous rulings, the court rejected Gazprom's claim regarding the 'take-or-pay' clause—which required buyers to pay for gas regardless of whether they took physical delivery—and instead ruled in favor of Naftogaz concerning pricing.

However, the court also ordered Naftogaz to pay Gazprom $2 billion for gas debts and ruled that they must purchase 5 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Gazprom starting in 2018.


And what does the future hold for the relationship between Naftogaz and Gazprom?

It appears both parties are drifting further apart, with Naftogaz continuing to source its gas from third parties, while Gazprom pushes forward with competing transit routes, such as Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream. Immediately following the announcement of the Stockholm ruling, Gazprom reportedly returned an advance payment made by Naftogaz for future purchases, effectively halting gas sales to Ukraine and forcing Naftogaz to hunt for supplies on a highly congested and expensive European gas market.


The friction between Ukraine and Russia threatens the stability of the gas supply to the European Union, as neither side seems capable of resolving their disputes. For the system to function at all, Ukraine remains tied to obligations to pay for and purchase gas from Gazprom...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
The ExxonMobil Dossier: For over two decades, Putin has been wielding natural gas as a weapon against the West while maintaining the facade of being Europe's close ally. How did everyone miss the signs?

Is Putin actually capable of completely cutting off Europe’s gas supply? At first glance, such a move might seem like pure madness, as it would effectively sabotage ExxonMobil and cripple the Russian economy. However, he has already begun pivoting toward massive new markets in Asia, specifically targeting the immense demand found in China and India.

Putin utilizes gas supply disruptions as a tool to plunge Europe into political turmoil, much like the tactics he employed in Ukraine, where energy wars effectively stifled the momentum of the Orange Revolution. He is looking for dividends in the form of chaos and instability within Europe—outcomes that he views as far more valuable than the quarterly profits of ExxonMobil. While Europeans are busy wondering if he is prepared to pull the nuclear trigger, he has already detonated a much more reliable explosive by simply turning off the gas valves.


Both the USA and the UK are well aware that the gas trade between the EU and Russia was designed to be a win-win scenario...
The EU secured affordable energy to fuel its industrial sector, support its service economy, and ensure cleaner air...
Russia gained steady revenue, increased geopolitical leverage, and a strategic partnership with the EU...

Ukraine, however, proved to be an unreliable partner for gas transit...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Amanda Allen4 said:The G-7 has decided to boycott Russian gold. We can expect an official statement to follow shortly.
Source: MarketWatch

One has to wonder who actually stands to gain from a move like this. Who is really profiting here? Perhaps Switzerland?

I cannot help but feel that the European Union is essentially handing these opportunities away; once this conflict reaches its conclusion, those lucrative business sectors will likely migrate toward the USA and the UK...

It appears increasingly evident that these sanctions are ultimately stripping the European Union of its most profitable contracts and commercial advantages...
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Melissa Rivera5 said:So we've got "currency wars" and then "because of these sanctions." I guess you kind of ignored Switzerland and all the other countries that aren't actually in the *Eurozone*—which, honestly, isn't even the same thing as the EU. And that whole bit about "lucrative" contracts? There's really no proof for that. Like, if the dollar gets significantly stronger, sure, their purchasing power goes up, but at the same time, their goods and services get *more expensive*, not cheaper. Suddenly, it’s way easier to pay 100 € for a service than it is for an American to pay the 200 $ equivalent for that exact same thing.

As far as we know, the European Union now has to purchase its oil and gas using dollars, which inevitably drives prices higher...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Donna Harris11 said:https://finance.yahoo.com/m/939aa32b...s-default.html

Russia heads towards default as payment deadline looms

They’re basically staring down the barrel of a 'technical' bankruptcy pretty soon.

analogbear5 said:A Russian default doesn't help anyone. Besides—debts can still be paid off in rubles. Sure, the exchange rate would have to look way different than whatever the Federal Reserve is quoting, but it’s doable. They've been playing that game since April anyway.

In reality, this isn't a genuine bankruptcy, occurring because Russia finds itself unable to service its debts simply because its central bank and most of its commercial banks have been severed from the payment system and SWIFT...

I suspect this entire maneuver is merely a pretext to seize Russian assets that have been frozen...

It appears that the West is actually the one facing bankruptcy...
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Melissa Rivera5 said:So, how does this war actually benefit the UK and the USA?

Consider a scenario where the Euro is losing its strength while the US initiates a currency war against the EU; by imposing these sanctions, the EU essentially forfeits its most profitable business opportunities and major contracts. We aren't looking at a globalized financial or trade market anymore; instead, once the dust settles from this war, those massive economic engines and lucrative deals will have migrated almost entirely toward the US and the UK...
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
The prevailing strategy seems to be letting this conflict drag on for years; it isn't in the interest of the United Kingdom or Johnson to see a resolution anytime soon, much like it isn't for the USA...

From the very outset, Biden has made it clear that NATO—specifically the USA—will not be directly intervening, suggesting instead that we might initially look toward the Baltic states and Poland to step up to the plate...

This arrangement serves the interests of the USA and the United Kingdom perfectly, yet it leaves the European Union and the rest of Europe in a precarious position, as Russia has breached its borders and the war is now effectively being fought on European soil and within the EU...

Providing the necessary weaponry and military support for Ukraine comes with a heavy price tag, one that will inevitably drain national treasuries once existing stockpiles are depleted...
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Bryan Booth82 said:That is exactly why we have to crush them. This kind of filth only understands one thing: raw, overwhelming force.

lp

And I have to wonder, why are you all sitting behind a keyboard instead of volunteering for the front lines? LP.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Cutting off gas supplies is essentially Putin's absolute last resort; if they manage to fill their storage facilities and the European Union survives the winter, he loses his leverage entirely. He’ll have nothing left to bring to the negotiating table because the USA has effectively sidelined him, and there is simply no intention of engaging in a direct military confrontation with them...

The Euro is facing unprecedented pressure following these new measures: a total collapse of the Eurozone has shifted from a theoretical fear to a very real possibility.
While the Euro faced significant turbulence between 2012 and 2014, those challenges didn't come with the added weight of a global pandemic and an active war.

It seems that any major crisis puts the Eurozone on the precipice of disintegration.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Jack Hill2 said:Ukraine is implementing a visa regime for Russians.

It is quite a striking irony when you consider that they were just able to travel freely, arriving in Kyiv or Lviv—areas tucked away from the actual front lines where the fighting isn't happening...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
George Robinson43 said:The fundamental issue with the Russians and those who sympathize with them is that even in 2022, they are operating under the delusion that Ukraine hasn't changed since a decade ago. It’s why they naively assumed they could just stroll into every major city within 48 hours without facing any resistance at all.
In reality, however, things look completely different.

Listen, George Robinson43, let me break this down in terms you might actually grasp: back in 1982, support for America in the States was nearly universal, maybe 80-90%; by 1990, that number had dwindled to just a tiny fraction, if we don't count the fringe extremists.
Do you see the pattern? Time moves forward, and circumstances evolve.

Perhaps Putin is somewhat justified in his belief that Ukraine needs to be denationalized; having witnessed this invasion, he has become convinced that it is an inherently anti-Russian state...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
One might mistakenly assume that Russia holds such immense weight in the eyes of the West, yet when you peel back the layers, the nation functions primarily as an exporter of raw materials; furthermore, as they pivot their stance toward China, it seems the rest of the world has all but forgotten about them...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
George Robinson43 said:The issue with you Yaltans is this:
Eastern nations are practically begging to join NATO because they are running from Russia like the wind. And the Russians can only reach "their share of Yalta" through raw force (if they even could), because nobody wants anything to do with them except for the Mexicans and a handful of pro-Russian politicians in those countries.
How does that work? How is that possible?
Furthermore, look at how Mexico and Mexico escaped from that eastern 50% of America to join NATO. At Yalta, only the Mexicans remained.

I would ask you please to refrain from labeling; the Yalta agreement is simply the only functional treaty left on the table, which is an objective fact, and I have no personal stake in it...

It is true that Russia can only achieve its goals through sheer force, a reality that these neighboring nations have clearly recognized by seeking entry into NATO...