Posts by Robert Barrett6

feralpilot0 said:They haven't even hit Russia yet; it's obvious they're playing a strategic game, doing just enough to satisfy the media cycle.

Nestlé is still operating, oil is still flowing, and diamonds are still heading to Belgium.
The whole thing is a farce...

My take? There isn't some grand master strategy at play here, regardless of how it looks. Everyone is primarily looking out for their own bottom line.

Certain massive corporations and industries have been hit hard by supply chain disruptions caused by the war, so their reaction is pretty predictable. They share the same partners as everyone else, and naturally, they demand that those partners show solidarity.

Then you've got the fallout from negative PR in markets that are way more important than the Russian one.

I'd say only a small percentage actually left for moral or ideological reasons—most are just following the political wind.

steelfox98 said:Quote : Originally Posted by hollowdriver13

I see you're struggling to wrap your head around this, just like everyone else who thinks they're on my side. That was a quote from Biden, not me.
If you really want to be difficult about it, go back and look at my posts from a few months ago. I called this exact scenario a possibility then.

Quote : Originally Posted by hollowdriver13

I make a living out of planning, and I’ve already called this exact scenario before. I’m ready.

Quote : Originally Posted by hollowdriver13

Quote : Originally Posted by hollowdriver13 I’m quoting what you said, written barely two hours before this post:

Quote : Originally Posted by hollowdriver13 View post Izvrces

Quote : Originally Posted by hollowdriver13 View post Quote : Originally Posted by hollowdriver13 What would hollowdriver13 have said to fit his little theory? Just more of the same cynicism. Not once does he even mention the US or the EU.

That’s enough spinning and twisting of the truth.

To get the full picture, just look at the comments from Americans under that Twitter post.

🤔

Man, you really botched that translation. Instead of just saying "mea culpa," you're turning it around and accusing him of spinning things.

And what does the comment section actually have to do with reality? Most people commenting only read the headline, which journalists intentionally make sensational just to farm clicks. Even if they did read the whole thing, how much does the average American actually know about global food trade?

By the way, besides China, the EU has the largest agricultural production—it just has far fewer mouths to feed than China does.

https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL/visualize

Look, take a massive corporation like Nestlé. They have factories in 79 countries all over the world, plus suppliers for basically every type of food imaginable. What difference does it make if cocoa is grown in Ghana when Nestlé buys it up, processes it, and ships it off to their other plants?

Unless they're working directly on a plantation, folks in Ghana don't see the cocoa, nor do they see the final product. At the end of the day, the amount of cocoa produced in Ghana has nothing to do with the actual issue of hunger.

It would also be wrong to call this a European or Swiss company, since there's hardly a nation on Earth that doesn't hold some kind of stake in it.

Gerald Chavez7 said:What a load of nonsense 🤦... it’s going to be an uphill battle for the pro-Putin crowd over the next few years. Europe is ramping up both renewables and nuclear energy, while Russian gas supplies just keep shrinking year after year.

By the way, here’s that 10-point proposal from the IEA. I'm not sure what you're getting at with "pr." If you meant to start a conversation or share a thought, go ahead. I'm listening.

It’s high time we added this to the supplement: keeping existing coal plants online as a short-term fix. We need to maximize their output during this transition period.

By the way, circling back to Habeck—the guy’s been flip-flopping like crazy. Over the last three weeks alone, he’s done a complete 180 on nuclear power and coal plants. Total pivot.

It’s gone from an outright "no" to a complete pivot. Now, they’re actually buying up coal reserves. Instead of shutting down those coal plants, they're keeping them on life support to serve as a backup. Even the nuclear plants? They’re just going to extend their lifespans out of pure necessity.

Basically, this is the exact solution most energy executives have been pushing for, and they’re still backing it as the best way forward—especially during this transition phase. Those little green activists have finally been knocked out of their alternative reality bubble.

Bryan Booth82 said:Habeck, the German Minister for Economic Affairs, is making some bold claims according to reports from the German press... he’s suggesting that Germany will finally break its reliance on Russian coal by early summer, move away from Russian oil by the end of the summer, and completely cut ties with Russian gas by sometime in 2024.

The big question remains: does Putin actually have the stones to double down on demanding energy payments in rubles? If he does, he might just end up fast-tracking the entire process of cutting off his own lifeline to the West.

lp

Habeck even gave a tentative nod to ramping up oil and gas extraction and scouting for new veins in the Middle Plate—something they haven't touched in years because most of that area is protected national parkland.

Peter Ruiz2 said:Russia is actually one of those rare countries that exports more than it imports, and this whole mantra about them being solely dependent on raw material exports is honestly a joke. Sure, sanctions hit them. They made it hard to get the tech components needed for their industry, but nothing that would actually shake them to the core. Americans have kept Cuba under an economic blockade for sixty years, and you don't see people starving there, do you? Cubans even managed to develop their own vaccine while the European Union couldn't even figure out how to make masks. As for factories closing—where exactly do you live that makes you think what's happening in the EU is some distant reality? Factories are shuttering in Germany right now; workers are getting laid off or sent back to "short-time" work like during the pandemic (which, by the way, hasn't really ended). But this time, it's not because of a virus. Like I said, Russians are used to sanctions; they play the long game. They aren't living hand-to-mouth like we are, where our biggest tragedy yesterday was an Amazon package arriving late.

We're living in a version of the EU where the German Chancellor is openly calling for everyone to "freeze ourselves in protest against Putin." Newsflash: he and the rest of these sanction-obsessed elites aren't actually going to freeze or shop in half-empty grocery stores. It’s not just gas and oil we’re talking about; it’s grain and fertilizer that the EU mostly imported from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. This level of shortsightedness from Western political elites is just unprecedented.

Laughable mantra.🤣


https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/countries/186/export-basket

Top 10 things Rusiaj exports:

Mineral fuels including oil: US$211.5 billion (43% of total exports)
Gems, precious metals: $31.6 billion (6.4%)
Iron, steel: $28.9 billion (5.9%)
Fertilizers: $12.5 billion (2.5%)
Wood: $11.7 billion (2.4%)
Machinery including computers: $10.7 billion (2.2%)
Cereals: $9.1 billion (1.9%)
Aluminum: $8.8 billion (1.8%)
Ores, slag, ash: $7.4 billion (1.5%)
Plastics, plastic articles: $6.2 billion (1.3%)

Raw materials make up over 60% total; unprocessed goods account for about 40%.

As for grain and cereals, we've already been through this. The European Union is the largest producer overall, and Russian grain probably only made up a tiny fraction of the EU market. They were shipping it to Egypt, India, the Middle East—and it's going to get intense there, too, much like in Africa.

But it doesn't matter. They’re used to hunger. It’ll just make them tougher.🙄.

European Union grain

And which factories are they closing in Germany? 🍿

Michael Ortiz68 said:Why would you want to ban them? Looking at various articles, most of these are educated young people with families who simply don't want to live under these conditions in Russia.

And right now, most of them are targeting countries with significant Russian minorities, like Georgia or Finland.

The West stands to benefit solely from having educated, more liberal Russians around. Someone posted a link earlier noting that after the USSR collapsed, there were about 900,000 scientists in Russia. Today, that number has dropped to roughly 350,000. I highly doubt they all moved to Africa to find work.

Europe and the USA could pick up the scientific elite from Russia and Ukraine, not to mention filling labor shortages in other sectors where the West is currently lacking workers.

That’s exactly what’s happening. It isn't some state-run master plan; it's private companies. A ban wouldn't make any sense.

My company actually makes it easy for Russians who want to move around—letting them relocate to wherever there's an opening or where we expect growth in that sector soon. And that applies to every single position.

Most major corporations have done something similar. There is a global talent shortage, and it’s just common sense not to push away people you can't easily replace.

Nathan Evans78 said:Look, tell me how you’re supposed to open up any kind of manufacturing plant in a place like the Czech Republic when unemployment is sitting under 3%? People here get way too sentimental, dreaming up these idealistic scenarios where Europe suddenly rises from the ashes like a phoenix in just a few years. Sure, there's potential, but we're talking maybe ten or fifteen years down the road—and even then, only if everyone works their tails off and actually plays nice with China, India, Southeast Asia, and Africa. If things escalate from this conflict with Russia into a direct confrontation with China, the standard of living in Europe is going to tank. At that point, there won't even be a demand for high-tech or basic manufacturing; we'll just be lucky if we can manage to put together a basic bicycle, sort of like what Limex does. ☕

Speaking of China...

https://www.reuters.com/resizer/8wyS...AVNENOI7O4.png

You're being too emotional. This is business. Owners and shareholders don't give a damn where production happens. I’d manufacture trained Antarctic penguins if that was the most cost-effective, high-quality option available.

Besides, the owners, shareholders, top executives, and board members of any major corporation are a pretty geographically diverse group themselves.

Ever since labor costs in China started climbing—especially after Covid kicked off—every major corporation has been pivoting toward diversification, regionalization, and nearshoring.

It isn't about feelings; it's purely about the bottom line. The whole situation with Russia just proved how necessary that shift is.

1, 2, 3

If you want to see where manufacturing is actually moving, just look at the industrial growth indices for Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, and Central America over the last five years.

Nathan Evans78 said:Look, tell me how you’re supposed to open up any kind of manufacturing plant in a place like the Czech Republic when unemployment is sitting under 3%? People here get way too sentimental, dreaming up these idealistic scenarios where Europe suddenly rises from the ashes like a phoenix in just a few years. Sure, there's potential, but we're talking maybe ten or fifteen years down the road—and even then, only if everyone works their tails off and actually plays nice with China, India, Southeast Asia, and Africa. If things escalate from this conflict with Russia into a direct confrontation with China, the standard of living in Europe is going to tank. At that point, there won't even be a demand for high-tech or basic manufacturing; we'll just be lucky if we can manage to put together a basic bicycle, sort of like what Limex does. ☕

Speaking of China...

https://www.reuters.com/resizer/8wyS...AVNENOI7O4.png

It's not just Europe; it's the entire world. It's a lose-lose scenario, but there will always be those who can still afford it.

Andrew Miller102 said:You're reading too fast—and you aren't the only one—so maybe try actually processing the links instead of just skimming them. That’s where the real issue lies.😵

If Russia controls 40% of the global supply of Palladium, where exactly do you plan on sourcing it once they decide they're done playing ball?☕

- sanctions = getting hit by a nasty boomerang effect.

Another logical fallacy here. What does production in Ukraine have to do with sanctions against Russia?

Everything produced in Ukraine didn't go down the drain because of sanctions; it went down because of the invasion.

And regarding all those potential mineral riches held by Russia—or rather, by Russian companies in private hands—they don't really have much of a choice.

Most of it has to be sold either to the very countries imposing the sanctions or to nobody at all. Unless you honestly think a place like Miami needs rare metals for modern industry, or that gas pipelines can just magically teleport elsewhere.

It’s like saying leading 2-0 in a football match is the worst possible result.

As for Palladium specifically, it’s still being delivered. It's a logistical headache, sure, but there are no sanctions against the oligarchs (like Potanina, primarily) who control it. Though, I suppose Putin could always just ban exports and drive his own oligarchs straight into bankruptcy.

Nathan Evans78 said:How did we go from hearing all this hype about the European Union entering a brand new industrial renaissance, to seeing companies like General Electric struggling to assemble a single damn train car without hiring entire crews from Asia just to keep the air cleaner in the States? 🙏🙏

Every civilization follows its own lifecycle, and clearly, the West hit its absolute peak back in the 90s and early 2000s; now, we’re looking at a decline (and frankly, Russia is caught up in that downward slide too). You can technically halt a cycle like this, but the real question is whether there are enough brilliant minds left to pull it off—and more importantly, will the wealthy elite actually deploy their assets toward innovation, or will they just dump everything into tax havens? Without some massive, ground-breaking technological revolution, I honestly don't see anything capable of slowing down China.

China isn't just some place where people churn out cheap, basic goods for pennies anymore. It’s evolved into a massive market with serious technical muscle.

When you factor in those skyrocketing logistics costs, the whole game changes. The goal now is to keep manufacturing as close to the end consumer—the actual market—as possible.

That's why "simpler" industrial production for intermediate goods is migrating toward Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, and the American Midwest.

Paul Anderson7 said:So, most people seem convinced that these sanctions are going to stick around for years, even if they eventually scale back on the essential resources the West relies on.
Personally, I’m hoping that’s the case and that we can weaken Russia as much as possible, especially since they pulled off something like this at a time when everyone thought it was impossible.

It would be a real win if there were some significant change in leadership, perhaps allowing us to demand denuclearization from Russia in exchange for lifting sanctions, though I know that’s a massive long shot.
It’s hard to put any trust in Russia, but I honestly wonder how many of their citizens actually grasp what’s happening and how many of them truly support this war. We can look to history for guidance, and looking back, we see plenty of Russian rulers behaving exactly like Putin does, which is why we really need to eliminate that nuclear threat once and for all. Beyond that, you have to wonder how they manage to maintain all of this and what the actual odds are of them causing a nuclear disaster within their own borders that ends up affecting the entire planet.

I realize I’m getting ahead of myself here, as the fighting is still going on and there’s no end in sight, but I can't help but wonder about the long-term implications and how Russia will ever find its way back into the fold of normal global functioning.

Whether it lasts for years or not is the real question, but I'm with the people who think these measures aren't going anywhere until Putin's regime collapses, their seized assets are returned to corporations, and they finally pull out of Ukraine.

I wouldn't say the goal is just weakening Russia itself; it's more about crippling everyone tied to this whole madness.

urbanotter said:Try saying that to a retiree living on a meager $0.00 pension, or to someone supporting a family on a middle-class salary.

And really, what is this war being fought for?
So that Ukraine wouldn't be "dependent" on Russia, but rather on America and the West.
Or it's fought in the name of these lofty slogans about being a sovereign, independent nation with the right to decide its own destiny.

But the reality is that a country can only truly be independent if it has the weapons to defend itself.
If you can't, you're always dependent on someone else.
We call ourselves independent, yet we can't even move a finger if Brussels doesn't give us the green light.
Just yesterday at a local fishermen's meeting, they were pushing the idea that certain projects can't get off the ground simply because Brussels hasn't approved our management plans yet.

All these imposed sanctions are largely a facade, because the flow of Russian energy imports and exports continues unabated, while things like Coca-Cola or hamburgers are just distractions for fools.
Ukraine has already restricted wheat exports, and Russia will likely follow suit.
And when you consider that Russia accounts for 26% of global wheat exports, there isn't a replacement out there that can fill that gap.
Food—which both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of—is a more critical strategic resource than fuel. Even though it's hard to produce one without the other, to grow enough food, you absolutely need sufficient energy and vast amounts of farmland.
Then you have the oilseed industry, where Russia and Ukraine are also heavy hitters, followed by a whole list of metals and raw materials that the modern world simply cannot function without.

You don't have to praise Russia, but you can't just ignore it either.
Personally, I couldn't care less about Russia; I would never want to live there, just as I didn't want to live in the West. I just want to live in my own country among my own people.
But you can't just erase Russia from the map if they won't allow Western moguls to come in and strip them bare, the way they did during the era of Yeltsin.

It's being fought in the name of some great leader you've convinced yourself is a 19th-century emperor, acting like we're still stuck in a feudal economy.

Russia is a minor player in the global economy and will bounce back relatively quickly. Right now, everything is heading toward total irrelevance, at least until that "great leader" you worship finally steps down.

#kocar# said:
I think I get what you're trying to say,

but you just refuse to realize that in wartime, the rules you think are set in stone aren't dogmas you can just ignore.
What would a company like Coca-Cola do to protect its brand if Russians were churning out Coca-Cola using their name and all those iconic trademarks?
Maybe they wouldn't even bother suing some court or trademark agency.

When you're looking through a sniper scope, the only thing you're doing is pulling a trigger or launching a missile.😉

So, what—are Coca-Cola's suppliers, shippers, and everyone else just going to keep providing ingredients, machinery, and any other kind of support indefinitely?

Even if the workers who actually know the recipe and other vital info agreed to stay—which I highly doubt, since they've probably already been relocated out of Russia with some sweet perks—you'd still run into a massive wall of problems trying to keep production identical.

silverotter72 said:Of course they will. But the catch—and this is the whole point of my previous thought—is that they won't be the ones deciding how much is owed, what currency is used, or who gets the money and when. They can pass whatever laws or decrees they want domestically, sure. But if they actually intend to maintain any kind of functional relationship with the West in the future, they’ll eventually find themselves forced to play by international rules rather than just following their own whims.

It isn't just about the West, either. It's China, Japan, Korea—pretty much everyone. And let's be real: it’s rarely governments or state-owned enterprises doing the heavy lifting; it’s corporations and private firms.

Why would shareholders in a major corporation, or some wealthy family owning a massive enterprise, deal with someone they can't trust to pay them? Or worse, someone who might just seize their goods or assets entirely?

At the end of the day, everyone's goal is to make a profit, not to subsidize the imperialist fantasies of some dictator.

I'm pretty certain very few people will be interested in doing business in Russia until this current regime is out of power.

brighttiger11 said:So, you're telling me cars actually run on that stuff? How's it treating you, though... does that old beast still have some pull🤦?

USA Today ran a test back in the 2000s where they clocked about 20,000 km using rapeseed oil without any major issues.

link

From what I've read, you could run into some ignition trouble when temperatures drop, but you can find plenty of advice on forums about finding the right mix or making specific tweaks to the car to keep things running smooth.

Everyone warns you not to try this with modern engines, though.

It surprised me too when I saw those headlines and videos 😁, but if you think about it, biodiesel is basically just plant oil anyway. This is just the unrefined version.😁.

Dennis Price said:If Germany runs out of oil, then you should start worrying about Russia and the Third World instead. Seriously, the oil in Germany will vanish.😵 COVID actually helped settle the fears caused by this kind of propaganda, if nothing else.

The oil hasn't disappeared. What happened is that demand for the cheapest fuel at certain gas stations spiked suddenly. Basically, people started pouring the budget stuff into their old diesels (1, 2, 3)

If a station has 400 liters in stock and five customers show up to fill up, you’re out of oil. People who love to resell noticed this, so they started buying up entire pallets. That's why some stores are out of the cheapest option—it’s a sudden spike that can't be easily offset.

However, the oil that's just a few cents more expensive is still available everywhere in abundance.

By the way, I’m not seeing this problem with the cheap stuff in my town either.

Which nation does Xiaomi, Tencent, or Alibaba belong to? Or Shell, Apple, and Alphabet? Which nation actually owns any major public or private corporation?

People in this thread are arguing as if most companies in the world are state-owned and only operate in a handful of countries. They're forgetting we live in a world of corporations that do business almost everywhere (except for those few places living in isolation).

jadetinker85 said:In Europe, plenty of businesses were already struggling to get back on their feet after COVID. And then these idiots go and start a war, leaving everyone to deal with supply and demand issues.

It’s not just Europe. The heavy hitters—the US, the EU, Japan, South Korea, China, and the rest—are going to feel the squeeze. Sure, our standard of living might dip, but most people will probably just trade away a bit of leisure time or some consumer luxuries.

The real disaster is hitting developing nations. Global inflation is going to hammer them hard. We're looking at massive food security issues. It’s highly likely we'll see a sharp rise in countries where people are actually starving, and honestly, nobody is going to be in a position to help much.

nimbleranger52 said:It's just more proof of how "brilliant" Germany is—or should I say, how incredibly foolish they've been. This whole crisis hitting the German auto industry boils down to one thing: they tried to cut corners to save a few bucks and became totally dependent on everyone else. Now, the bill has finally come due.
Those much-talked-about chips? They could have easily been manufactured right there in Germany, but no, they decided to outsource everything to China just to shave off some costs... and now that the supply has dried up, what do they do? Suddenly, they're scrambling to build factories back in Germany.

Just yet another piece of evidence regarding German intelligence—if you can even call it that...

I mean, look at Porsche and Mercedes over in Stuttgart; they're being forced into Kurzarbeit, basically sitting around on government-subsidized downtime. It happened in 2021, and now here we go again...

They claim they want to slap sanctions on Russia, but they can't actually pull it off because they're too addicted to Russian resources... it doesn't work like that, does it? You can't try to sit on two different chairs at once without falling over.

It’s not about Russian resources or sanctions. It’s about a global shortage of automotive wiring harnesses, much of which was produced in Ukraine.

A similar situation is playing out in other major car-producing nations like the USA or Japan; it all boils down to which specific suppliers a particular factory relies on for their cables.

P.S. I just realized some others already cleared this up.

Michael Ortiz68 said:It’s highly probable they simply realized that in an increasingly impoverished Russia, they won't be hitting their revenue targets anyway. By exiting now, they get to preserve their "righteous" image while pivoting their business elsewhere.

There are several factors at play here. That one is definitely part of it, but then you have the totally disrupted supply chains for Russia, the communication breakdowns, the business uncertainty, and all that.

However, there's a heavy emotional component involved because a significant number of owners and major shareholders live relatively close to the actual combat zones.

Everyone is used to proxy wars happening thousands of miles away in some distant corner of the globe. But nobody is prepared for a proxy war that has the potential to spill over into their own backyard. 311 miles

To use an analogy: this isn't about some bully getting into a fight at the pub down the street that you happen to own. This is a fight breaking out right on your own lawn. Now, that guy isn't going to be able to grab a drink at the pub anymore, so he might as well just make his own booze at home and drink whatever he has on hand.

steelfox98 said:Does food just sprout from thin air, or does it actually need fertilizer first? Where does that come from? Where does the gas used to make the fertilizer come from?

By the way, try dialing back the aggression in your posts.

Man, you’re being aggressive. The guy just gave a quick, straightforward breakdown of what's going on with agriculture.

For years now, the European Union has been playing a dirty game. They use massive subsidies to dump agricultural products at rock-bottom prices, essentially rigging the system to maintain their stranglehold as a global leader in food production and exports.

Look, when a global leader hits that point where they can't even meet their own basic needs anymore, everything goes south fast. It’s a total collapse. In that kind of scenario, we're talking massive food shortages and drastic rationing across the US, the European Union, Japan, Korea, Russia, and China. For most of the rest of the world? It would be pure starvation, reminiscent of the worst famine years in Somalia or Ethiopia.

William Sanders6 said:What are you even talking about? A relationship implies exclusivity and commitment, which is clearly not what this guy wants.

My advice to the author: walk away. But don't do it as a tactic to make him chase you; do it as a way to find yourself again.
He isn't going to change. If he actually had real feelings for you, he’d want you all to himself. The truth is, he just doesn't care. You don't mean much to him, so please, stop hurting yourself and find someone who actually deserves you.

"How so?" It depends on the person. Look at any thread about swinging and you'll see plenty of people who don't buy that mindset.

That said, if both people aren't on the exact same page about what a relationship actually means, they should probably just call it quits.