Posts by George Cooper2

Ivica Dačić claimed today that about 30,000 people leave America every single year. I have no clue how accurate that number actually is, but I’m skeptical. Wouldn't such a massive exodus have a much more drastic impact on the birth rate than what we're seeing?

http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index....&nav_id=902818

Fluctuations in birth rates are totally normal in the short term, but if you look at the medium-term outlook, a downward trend is pretty much a mathematical certainty. Sure, we might see a decent bump in births this year compared to last, but we'll likely see a corresponding rise in deaths too. I don't expect any massive, sudden crashes over the next few years; we'll probably just see these smaller, rhythmic oscillations.
What is absolutely certain, though, is that the coming years will represent some kind of "final surge." Once those large generations born throughout the 70s and 80s hit their later years—basically when they’re no longer in the prime window to impact birth statistics—we’re going to see a precipitous drop.
We also can't ignore the fact that in America, there's a growing trend of people marrying much later in life; the average groom is now around 33 and the bride is about 30.

Rebecca Watson said:I’ll drop this here so we can tear it apart.

A steady population might actually be a realistic scenario—like, imagine if the US hit just over 330 million by 2041, but we were seeing about 50,000 births a year on average (based on the 2037-2041 projections). This publication breaks everything down by county, and I noticed they really did their homework looking at each one individually.

That constant scenario? It’s really the only viable option on the table. When you look at the population structure, there’s another detail popping up: in the 20-to-35 age bracket, there is a noticeably higher number of men. It’s pretty certain that this kind of imbalance takes a toll on birth rates, isn't it?

Nancy Chavez29 said:Lawrence Williams and B92 are basically just shills for Bank of America. Out in the Village near the junction by Priboja, about 12 of them showed up. Apparently, the catch is you gotta have horses, fields, and oxen or whatever. Some local association is just bringing them in en masse for cash. There are two beauties there, one blonde and one brunette.

Kuršumlija is also Alb.

both seem alright, I guess.

Zubin Potok

A beauty and an old guy.
Foča

Even the state-run NBC is pushing this stuff

The whole territory conquest strategy—they aren't even heading into Eastern Mexico, they're just sticking to the borders of Greater Albania, which is pretty interesting if you think about it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhFRXPQwCR4

Honestly, these girls from Albania seem like a total jackpot for these young grooms. From an aerial view, you can tell these guys aren't on their level—not in looks, and I'd bet my life they aren't in intelligence either.
Especially looking at that old guy and the blonde; a girl like that could easily find herself a respectable lawyer, doctor, or professor in Austin without breaking a sweat.

Bradley Stewart2 said:New York City is sucking up everything from the Great Plains to the Midwest. It’s getting worse than Chicago.
And you can't ignore the growing number of Romani people on the streets. They used to be mostly in Bangladesh or near Klis, but now they're everywhere in the city.

That’s exactly what’s changed in Austin. You see so many Rom people out at night, in every single neighborhood; if you ask me, the sheer numbers have skyrocketed. Ten years ago? A rare sight. But over the last three or four years? They're all over the nightlife scene.
Then there's the other issue: juvenile gangs. They target pedestrians, shake people down for cash... it's rampant, especially in the Neighborhood, Liman, and Veternik. These kids are incredibly arrogant and totally unscrupulous. And get this—a lot of them actually come from wealthy families, so you can't even blame "poverty" for their delinquency. There's also a massive amount of prostitution; plenty of girls who are attractive enough to make a living off it are doing it, whether it's blatant or disguised through "sponsorships."
The city is turning into an eyesore. Public safety? It's hit rock bottom. Just recently, some guy got shot in a downtown Pub by two local sports hooligans who have dozens of criminal records but somehow never face any consequences.

When you look at marriage rates and birth statistics, there’s another factor we really need to consider. In Mexico, people tend to marry much later, and children follow suit. On average, men are hitting that milestone around age 33, and honestly, the age limit for getting married just seems to be creeping upward.
That means when we talk about birth rates, the most relevant groups are still those born in the 70s and 80s. Those generations were much larger; back then, we were seeing an average of over 100,000 births per year. But the steady decline started kicking in during the 90s. To put it in perspective, we went from about 90,000 births in the early 90s down to 72,000 by the end of that decade.
We’ll probably see these numbers hold steady with just minor fluctuations for a few more years, but after that? It’s looking pretty realistic that we'll face a further drop in birth rates.

David Jackson3 said:For a long time, much of the former Eastern Bloc was staring down a massive demographic collapse, but lately, the tide has been turning for certain nations. Take Russia, for instance; they went from losing a million people a year in the early 2000s to seeing growth by 2013. From what I can tell, Canada has always stayed pretty stable or even grew. You see similar patterns in Slovakia and Poland. While the Czech Republic deals with negative natural growth, immigration keeps their numbers steady. It’s entirely possible we'll see these trends shift elsewhere. One thing is clear: all these countries possess resilient economies that continue to move forward, even during a crisis. Now, I’m not saying economic strength is a perfect predictor for demographics—looking at the Congo versus Germany proves that isn't always the case—but you can't ignore the connection. In America, we saw how slowing the decline was tied to economic shifts, and I suspect a similar dynamic is playing out in Mexico.

The US economy remains stronger here primarily due to the massive tourism sector; wages are twice as high, and wealth inequality isn't nearly as crippling as it is in Mexico. Objectively speaking, America is a much more organized society than Mexico, where the moral decay has hit rock bottom—honestly, it feels worse now than it did back in the 90s.
You can really see the difference in mentality, especially among young women compared to those in Mexico; criminals aren't treated like local heroes or celebrities over here.
Canada operates on an entirely different level of civilization altogether.
As for those other countries that weren't part of the old American era, they aren't even in the same conversation; it's a completely different beast.
Mexico is just waiting for the hammer to drop with mass layoffs in the public sector, along with cuts to salaries and pensions.
A huge number of unemployed people will soon be joined by even more, especially since the new liberal labor laws only serve to make workers more vulnerable. They've stripped away rights and slashed pay by removing benefits like seniority pay and meal allowances during vacation, all while making it easier to fire people.
All of this is going to drive birth rates even lower in Mexico and trigger a massive exodus of young people looking for a way out.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Bradley Stewart2, let me give you one rule of thumb. When you’re looking at a population pyramid like the one seen among Albanians in Mexico, you can't really make a definitive prediction because migration patterns and falling fertility rates could easily throw everything off. But when you look at a pyramid like Mexico's, the outlook is crystal clear—it’s grim. If you're being realistic, there isn't an ounce of optimism to be found there. Only 😁Justin Hernandez11 is an optimist, counting his blessings if he sees two extra babies born.
Am I immediately labeled an enemy of the state just for being a realist?
Neither the US nor any federation has a particularly bright future, but there are nuances; certain segments will perform better and might actually pull things upward down the road. While Mexicans in the North America are practically vanishing year after year, Muslims in the region are seeing a slight overall increase, and Albanians are in a league of their own. Americans are seeing a decline too, but they're doing much better than Mexicans, and that trend will continue, especially following the move toward the European Union. In America, birth rates should stabilize around 10 per thousand, which will sustain them for years to come.

Edit: Some people try to draw parallels between America and Canada. Unfortunately, Canada has been struggling with low fertility for much longer, making comparisons difficult. Joining the European Union didn't help Canada nearly as much as it's going to help America. Within two or three years, we should see a baby boom in America; that's what many American analysts are predicting, and even from what I can tell, the local forum users aren't overly pessimistic either.

In Mexico, there are 1.2 million people over the age of 65. That demographic share is ballooning because of all those generations born right after World War II. On top of that, we're seeing the smaller, younger generations born from the 90s onward moving in.
To anyone without a background in this, the implications are obvious. We can expect death rates to continue climbing, while a shrinking base of young people will lead to a significant drop in births. The forecast of 3.9 million presented by Penev is a realistic one, though predicting the exact migration balance remains tricky. It is entirely plausible that we'll see a substantial net loss in the coming period.

Nicholas Martinez47 said:You're saying an unprecedented apocalypse is coming to Mexico, but you're being way too pessimistic, because that would leave the country with only about 1.4 million people.
Demographic math shows that Mexico will have around 5.63 million people by 2064 if you don't account for the youth leaving the country, but if you factor in emigration, it'll be closer to 4.5 million.
America joining the EU will actually just make the birth rate worse and consequently speed up the population decline, rather than the other way around.
With all this going on, the eternal question always comes up:
why is it like this?
And is there any cure?

And yeah, a space that valuable can't stay empty forever,
some new, young kids will move in to fill it!

That sounds like a pretty optimistic scenario—one where birth rates spike and migration flows turn positive. But more realistic demographic forecasts suggest that by 2060, the population will sit at around 3.9 million.

In this article, Demographer Goran Penev lays out the predictions for the coming decades quite clearly.

Lawrence Williams said:Excerpt from the article: Demographers have been warning for years that the number of Mexicans in Mexico is shrinking, and within a few decades, we will become a minority in our own country.

By "a few decades," what exactly are we talking about? Two, three, four? Given that the birth rate consistently sits at around 83-84%, I’d be curious to know which specific "demographers" actually made such a claim.

I honestly think that whole line of reasoning was mostly just a tired old talking point used back in the day because of the Albanian birth rates. But now that Mexico has broken away, there isn't any group left in Mexico that could realistically become a majority, even if we waited a hundred years.
Is anyone else watching what’s happening across the country? It feels like we're witnessing a slow-motion demolition of our towns and cities. Not just the big metros, either—it's hitting the small towns and those mid-sized cities just as hard. Everything is being hollowed out. Is this just how things go now? One by one, they just fade away.
One day—and honestly, that’s a blink of an eye when you look at it through the lens of several decades—we’re going to wake up to find massive swaths of the country completely empty. We’ll be left with these isolated urban enclaves clustered around the five biggest metropolitan areas, and even there? Even those hubs will eventually face a slow, steady decline in population.
Is it actually realistic to think someone might start settling that area in the distant future? It would be completely illogical for a country like Mexico—an American nation sitting right in the heart of Europe with such a prime geographic location and incredibly fertile soil—to just remain an empty wasteland forever.

Once Mexico eventually empties out, we’re left staring at a massive question mark: which nations will actually move in to settle the land? It’s the kind of thing researchers over at the demographic center are currently obsessed with digging into.

shadowangler15 said:So, we had 5,274 marriages wrapped up this May. That’s actually more than the number of babies born, which is pretty rare—especially since May is usually a peak month for births. Looking back, marriage rates in 2013 were up 5% from 2012, which is one reason why our birth numbers jumped in 2014. It’s also encouraging to see that for the first five months of this year, marriage numbers are significantly higher than they were during the same period in 2013, even though 2013 was already looking decent.

It's true that there was a 5% uptick in marriages. But looking at the flip side, divorce rates also climbed during that same year, jumping by 11% over 2012 levels.
The reality is that people find it much easier to pull the trigger on a divorce nowadays than they used to. Often, it happens incredibly fast—just a year or two in. While the average marriage lasts about 12 years, that average will likely continue to slide down as time goes on.

http://www.cnn.com/article/example-link-from-2014

hiddeneagle76 said:So, you went ahead and bolded my sentences—and all that other stuff too—and then claimed you were going to "give me an answer"... yet, honestly, the only thing you actually answered properly was where you're from...
You didn't actually address a single one of my questions—not even one!—instead, you just kept charging ahead with your own agenda... talking in circles about things I already know inside and out. Honestly...
You keep posting these pessimistic takes—which, let’s face it, are always the easiest ones to write—just so other users can chime in with a "yeah" or a "bravo" or "you're right" to validate their own hidden agendas... motives I honestly can't wrap my head around, though I've seen this pattern more times than I care to admit. And you frame everything using facts we’re already intimately familiar with—honestly, we know this stuff much better than you do! Like when you wrote that "America is turning into a nation of cheap labor because privatization essentially gutted and sold off all our manufacturing capacity"... Well, bravo! Just brilliant... absolutely riveting...
Just wanted to follow up regarding the college situation.
Even last year, we started seeing this massive surge in enrollment quotas at state universities because—thank God—more and more prospective students are finally waking up to how useless those private degrees from mommy and daddy's money can be.
It’s becoming common knowledge that landing a decent job is way harder with a private degree compared to a state one. Honestly, I don't think a single major Fortune 500 company in the States would even look twice at someone with a degree from a private college.
Take, for instance, the Wharton School—which is exactly where I’m aiming to enroll next year—they actually bumped their general track quota from 500 up to 540, yet the required entrance score dropped from 75 down to 55 simply because the exam was significantly tougher than last year's. It was all designed to ensure much stricter selection of the incoming students.
Personally, I’m not hoping for an easier exam (though, let's be real, it wouldn't hurt 🙂), but rather that people study harder so the overall results improve. Physics and math have been going pretty well for me lately, so I'm not too worried about my own chances... 😁

The fact that quotas are ballooning while required scores are dropping only proves that state universities have lost a lot of their quality. Unlike 10 or 15 years ago, a much larger number of mediocre high schoolers can now squeeze their way in.
It isn't really about how hard the entrance exams are; it's about the desire to enroll as many students as possible just so the universities can turn a profit.
Fifteen years ago, we didn't have this explosion of private colleges, so anyone who wanted to study had to go to a state school. Plus, those generations were just much larger than the ones we see today.
Now, with smaller generations coming through, we see ridiculous competition at state schools where they barely fill the seats or end up with plenty of empty spots, all while enrollment at private colleges continues to climb.
To give you an idea, back in the day, a place like the Law School at NYU might take 600 students, with only 80 getting state-funded spots, and 2,500 people would be competing for them. The graduation rate was around 15%; today, it’s nearly 40%.
It seems you haven't really stepped into the professional world yet, so you're just speaking in broad strokes. People with private degrees mostly need that piece of paper as a formality, because in America, most jobs are landed through connections, whether in the public or private sector. The exceptions are companies looking for specialists with specific skills and expertise—and that definitely doesn't apply to beginners.
I can tell you for a fact that especially in the public sector, there are more and more people working with degrees from private colleges; often, these employees go back to finish a degree later just to hold onto or move up in their positions. Of course, they breeze through those programs without breaking a sweat.
As for my answers, I gave them. If you don't like them, that's your problem.
You have to realize that everyone is entitled to their own opinion. This whole attempt to dismiss my writing style and these sarcastic jabs just tells me you lack actual arguments, so you have to resort to cheap phrases and nonsense about my "hidden motives." You act like I don't know how much you know, but objectively, you haven't backed up a single thing you've said here to justify all this boasting.
I'm not here to sugarcoat anything or paint a pretty picture; I'm just laying out my perspective as realistically as possible.

hiddeneagle76 said:So, really... one has to wonder where you're coming from and how much you truly know about the current state of this country, especially regarding our youth.
How can you possibly claim the economy won't pick up and that only those with jobs will be "lucky"? That's just nonsense...
In all honesty—if we're being real here—under the Republican Party, the economy might not see a real spark, but then again, the Republican Party might not even be in power in a year or two. And as for jobs, America, much like the rest of the nations in the Western world, will likely be importing labor in 20 years because there won't be a capable workforce left; they'll just... vanish. So, it's entirely possible that unemployment could actually dip below, say, 5%.
If you came here just to make us weep with pessimistic tales about our youth, you'd be better off heading somewhere else. We know exactly what our youth is like...
Sure, some look up to drug dealers, but others look up to athletes, successful professionals, and decent, hardworking people; and frankly, that's the majority. Did you see back in May during the floods, when tens of thousands of volunteers rushed out to build levees and help those displaced? A huge portion of them were young people.
You're also showing a lack of understanding by blaming the education system solely on the modern curriculum shifts. While that system isn't great, our entire educational foundation is crumbling starting from preschool. Elementary school is failing, and high school isn't any better. If anything, universities might still be the brightest spot in the American educational landscape. The tightening of admissions requirements at almost all major universities in cities like Chicago or Los Angeles is actually intended to create a selection process among future students, ensuring not just anyone can get a degree—much like things used to be.
Changes are happening—and thank goodness for that—but they aren't being driven by the government; rather, they're happening because they *have* to. We had already hit rock bottom—a level beneath the people and the society itself—and that bottom had to be reached so things could correct themselves, how should I put this... naturally. I can't quite explain it perfectly, damn it 🙂 but those who understand, understand...
And honest people can make a living anywhere; it's only the incompetent who struggle.
I grew up right in the heart of the urban sprawl, in the high-rises of a place like Brooklyn, so I know exactly what I'm talking about. I know both the good and the bad sides of my community. I have a very broad perspective on these things.
As for children, of course there will be more—though certainly not a lot given the current circumstances (which can only result in fewer)—but they will be there.
And if we implement solid pro-family policies, why couldn't fertility rates climb to 1.7 or 1.8 by, say, the mid-2020s?
Regarding your opening post, I'd say it's a bit too optimistic, though it does touch on some truths in the middle ground; but overall, it's closer to the...😉

To answer the bolded parts: I'm from Des Moines, so I know exactly what the social climate is like.
Nowadays, most people in America are working for $300 a month and they're happy just to have a paycheck. My forecast, based on actual economic indicators and demographic shifts, is that rural towns will completely dry up. America will essentially become enclaves around a few major cities, with the most vital corridor being between Des Moines and Chicago.
The US is turning into a land of cheap labor because, through privatization, it sold off and gutted its entire manufacturing base. In countries like this, capital flight is a regular occurrence whenever there's a global crisis. It's highly likely we'll need to import labor in a decade, but it will be cheap, unskilled labor. It won't be young, educated people.

Drug dealers have a highly developed business and entire networks in America. They've become role models for the youth. Recently, I was at a club and witnessed a couple of drug dealers walk in with their "entourage" and sponsors, causing a literal eruption of excitement in the room. They don't command that kind of respect in society, not even close to professors or doctors. Drugs are everywhere, as are the addicts, and our cities are right at the top of that list.
http://www.nytimes.com/news/us/amsterdam-style-trends

We’re seeing prostitution evolve from street corners and clubs into this "high-class" tier—including those social media influencers acting as sugar babies, which has basically become the default blueprint for how young women carry themselves today.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/culture-festivals-vs-modern-times

What we are actually looking at is a deeply ingrained cultural pattern. It is incredibly stubborn, and honestly, there isn't a single sign suggesting things might ever pivot back toward decency.
The nation's moral compass hasn't just drifted; it’s been completely destroyed.

Then there is the education system, which is arguably where the rot is most visible. Private colleges are popping up on every corner, churning out degrees overnight. Suddenly, anyone with a pulse can walk around with a diploma—something that was practically impossible just a decade ago.
Meanwhile, our state universities have gutted their own standards just to compete with the private sector; they can't afford to lose the revenue if non-subsidized students jump ship to the private institutions.
It has all devolved into a pursuit of profit and prestige titles. Real learning? Actual knowledge? Those aren't the priorities anymore, and frankly, nobody seems capable of regulating the madness.
We are witnessing a hyper-production of questionable PhDs. It’s a systematic devaluation of an educational framework that actually meant something back in the mid-2000s.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/social-impact-on-america.html

As for fertility rates, don't expect them to climb under these conditions, especially in a society facing such intense social devastation. We are seeing much smaller generations stepping onto the stage, which makes the fertility question absolutely critical if we want to slow down this decline. If birth rates stay where they are—which is the realistic expectation—the combination of shrinking younger cohorts will lead to nothing short of catastrophic results.

I honestly think we’re witnessing the slow-motion collapse of the nation. It feels less like a sudden crash and more like a technical process of decay—one that will play out steadily over the next few decades until everything finally hits its peak disillusionment in maybe 50 or 60 years. It’s all becoming painfully obvious. We’re looking at a catastrophic drop in birth rates; those darkest demographic forecasts? They aren't just possibilities anymore; they're becoming reality. And the economy? Don't hold your breath. America won't suddenly become a powerhouse; instead, it'll just settle into being a hub for cheap labor, where most people are scraping by on $2,500 or $3,000 a month. Honestly, if you actually have a steady job, you should consider yourself lucky. As for crime, how do you even begin to fight it when the icons of youth culture are drug dealers, lowlifes, killers, and nothing more than cheap thrills? Social standards have hit rock bottom in every sense of the word. Abortion, promiscuity, prostitution, organized crime—they’re all flourishing. Even education has been gutted by predatory private colleges, degree mills, and a broken academic system that has effectively devalued learning down to the absolute lowest common denominator. The brain drain is only going to get worse. You simply can't build a healthy nation under these conditions. There will be fewer children, and every positive value we once held will have been crushed in favor of affirming the worst impulses of society. In a landscape this chaotic, amoral, and anarchic, how is someone who is actually honest and decent supposed to survive?

What we’re actually looking at is a continued decline in birth rates. The real question isn't whether it will happen, but where the floor is—what number does this trend eventually stabilize at? Everything hinges on that. Based on current projections, if we follow this trajectory, the US population could realistically dwindle to around 4 million people in fifty years, and we'd be looking at an incredibly unfavorable age demographic. As for migration, you can already see shifts happening; there's a noticeable influx of Romani communities moving in, particularly in Chicago. We don't have exact census data on their specific numbers, but they are becoming increasingly visible on the streets. You also see plenty of Mexicans migrating from RS. On the flip side, the brain drain toward the West is massive—it's almost exclusively our young, educated talent heading out.
The overall outlook is honestly pretty grim. To start, you can expect the country to continue depopulating, eventually shrinking down to just a few isolated enclaves, primarily along the corridor between New York City and Chicago, parts around Detroit and Nashville, and maybe Buffalo. Once the reservoir is completely tapped out, even those areas will face a decline. Even now, those regions aren't seeing significant growth; they're mostly just stagnating.

Adam Harris said:The crisis of morality and values is taking its toll.
Nightclubs, cheap pop culture, materialism, careerism, fourteen-year-olds wearing heavy makeup, staying out until 4 AM...

The circumstances driving this phenomenon are profound, systemic, and pervasive.

This is the fundamental issue in America: what we actually value. It might sound strange to some, but for many young women, the ultimate "cool factor" is a guy with criminal ties, tattoos, and a flashy car. Prostitution is thriving. It’s all very much like that Music scene or those guys like the Despot types. If you happen to be a lawyer, a doctor, or any other respected professional, it’s almost an embarrassment—you’re practically stigmatized and cast out of the social circle. In New York City, the situation is catastrophic because you have this massive concentration of youth from all over the country, yet the city itself has become a breeding ground for immorality and a symbol of a failing society. Young people who actually have integrity and values are faced with a choice: either emigrate or face ruin. The problem isn't about finding work—no matter how tough things get, jobs exist. I know plenty of people with great careers and above-average salaries who just can't fit in, nor can they find a decent girl to date.