Posts by nimbletiger7

steelviper49 said:Tesla stock has been on a total downward spiral this year. We're looking at a massive 66% drop.

Back in early 2020, it was sitting around $60, then it absolutely skyrocketed to nearly $400 by the start of 2022! Fast forward to the end of '22, and it crashed down to just $123.

I don't actually hold the stock myself, though I do have about a 1% exposure through some ETFs I own. But man, when you look at a P/E ratio of 160... what on earth was so special about this stock that it was trading near $400 at the start of the year?

In my opinion.

Most of those gains were driven by retail investors. Out of the top 60 largest US hedge funds, only one even holds a long position in TSLA, and that's a tiny 0.12% of their portfolio. Meanwhile, insiders have dumped $40.26B worth of stock over the last two years, while only buying back $41,448.

The media gives Musk an insane amount of coverage compared to anyone else. So, retail investors—who are obviously watching all that news—start believing that TSLA has some massive technological edge that justifies a 10x higher multiple than its peers.

The real question here is how much of a tech advantage TSLA actually has over the competition, and more importantly, how that’s going to impact margins.

Desperate moves from someone losing a war.

If those in charge actually wanted to mobilize people to go to Ukraine, they would have done it by now. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how they react.

Besides, if Russia annexes parts of Ukraine, then their military could just start sending recruits into those specific areas.

hollowdriver13 said:https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...70599535214598

Kamil put together a really solid thread here about why Putin might theoretically call for a mobilization, but also why he probably won't see anywhere near the results he’s dreaming of. It basically boils down to the fact that the current Russian military's actual capabilities are worlds apart from what the old Soviet machine used to be.

Plus, those who are mobilized can choose prison over the army. I suppose survival chances in prison are much better than in Bakhmut or Lysychansk.

I think the main Russian problem is that morale in their military has dropped almost to zero. That's probably why they're organizing these referendums and mobilizations—to try and convince people that Russia won't just abandon them like they did in Kharkiv.

Daniel Barnes53 said:Over the last, say, six months or so, inflationary pressures have gotten significantly worse. For instance, the Federal Reserve sped up interest rate hikes beyond their original plan because they were worried about runaway inflation.
I guess one reason why Putin decided to push for aggression just now was that he might have simply miscalculated. Maybe the timing seemed right to him, and he figured the West wouldn't want to risk triggering another recession, especially since we barely managed to crawl out of the COVID-19 crisis.
He also totally missed the mark thinking the Ukrainian government would collapse in three days and the whole country would just fall into his lap without much of a fight.
I suppose the world might have been a lot more tolerant in that scenario. If the Ukrainians didn't care, and there weren't refugees or massive destruction, why would anyone threaten our fragile economy?
As for those Russian values I hear about on certain foreign news networks—things like faith and family—I honestly don't see much "bliss" in the data available. You've got people leaving the country, shrinking populations, alcoholism, HIV issues... plus, their GDP per capita is actually lower than many former Warsaw Pact members, even though they are a way richer nation in terms of natural resources.

Captured Russian soldiers are saying preparations for the invasion actually began in the summer of 2021. Back then, inflation was pretty low, so it was extremely difficult to predict how things would move. However, there is one thing the Russian planners might have seen coming.

I think a more important factor is gas and using gas as a weapon. 2021 saw an incredibly long winter, and European gas storage hit empty levels. This is likely the year when the gas shortage peaks. Every following year, the European Union will become less dependent on Russian gas, especially since two massive LNG export terminals in Canada and Qatar are set to start operating in 2024 and 2025.

An interview with a man who spent years advising Putin leading up to February 23, 2022.

I guess you can get a pretty clear look at how Putin and his inner circle actually think from this.

They honestly believed that 70-80% of the population in Chicago would back them up, and that they'd just basically stroll through eastern Ukraine.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...e-impact-video

Scott Rodriguez19 said:Basically.

The global stock markets aren't even flinching at what’s going down in Ukraine.
https://www.google.ch/search?q=DAX&s...client=gws-wiz
https://www.google.ch/search?q=dow+j...client=gws-wiz

So—nothing unexpected is actually happening here, I guess.

They're even up.
Which—if you think about it—might mean they're actually viewing the situation in Ukraine somewhat positively.

But hey, that's just business as usual.

Oil and gas prices even dropped yesterday because people realized Putin has to sell more fuel now just to fund the war. It seems Russians are selling oil at a $12 discount compared to Brent.

Susan James said:And what about those kids who head off to fifth grade basically carrying nothing but a tablet and a few light books? 🍿

I don't think tablets are happening. As far as I know, countries that tried relying on them gave up because the results were pretty terrible. Take Portugal, for instance. I guess maybe Ethiopia is the only one still trying that route.

Workbooks aren't mandatory this year, but I imagine publishers will push hard to make sure teachers still ask for them. So, the total number of books will probably end up being the same anyway.