Posts by swiftjackal11

urbanotter said:Looking at the photo of the ship, its capacity looks to be around 6,000 to 7,000 tons.

Now, it really depends on whether the vessel is completely full or just partially loaded, but even if it is at max capacity, that amount is just a drop in the bucket compared to the 20 million tons reportedly still sitting in those Ukrainian silos.
Let the Turkish authorities handle their business; in the grand scheme of things, this is a pretty marginal incident.

You two ever heard that old expression "stolen and cursed"?

urbanotter said:You wrote an entire "book" here, when you really could have summed all of that up in just a few sentences.

For any operation to turn a profit, the output must always exceed the input, which is the ultimate goal of manufacturing and most other human endeavors.

I'm asking you what the plan is for this year's fall planting, and you're presenting a "silver bullet" solution based on an experiment that is barely out of its infancy. It's honestly a bit ridiculous.
I could list dozens of similar experiments that have yielded pretty modest results—things like no-till farming, shallow plowing, organic agriculture, or even just reviving traditional small-scale farms where you grow everything from chickens and cows to wheat and lettuce in a home garden.
But those are just experiments, my friend; they aren't a scalable solution for feeding a global population that grows by a billion people every few years.
That doesn't answer the core question of whether the United States will remain self-sufficient in food production, nor does it address what the final cost to the consumer will be, since the consumer is the end goal of all these economic activities.

On the flip side of these "idealistic wishes," you have the rapid expansion of GMO crops across massive agricultural landscapes in places like India, Brazil, and Argentina, and look at how Bill Gates has become one of the largest landowners in America through his land acquisitions.
Global giants like Cargill, Monsanto, and Nestlé use every lever at their disposal to push for GMO production and the necessary pesticide use.
While there is resistance to GMO foods, they have already permeated the markets of the European Union, and as far as I know, many European universities have test plots and members who actively advocate for GMO production.

So, your response feels like a bit of a deflection and a distraction; it fails to address how sanctions against Russia will impact the fall planting season and the overall food self-sufficiency of the West.

Since you're avoiding a direct answer, let me lay it out plainly: I'll show you how the sanctions imposed on Russia will lead to soaring energy costs, gas, diesel, and fertilizer prices, and how that ripples back into food production and Western independence.

There will be massive negative consequences, if not outright catastrophes, regardless of the heavy subsidies being handed to farmers to try and keep food affordable for the general public.
I don't have a crystal ball, but from what I can see, the sanctions in this sector will trigger a massive counter-effect. Many lower-income citizens in wealthy nations will face the threat of poverty and hunger.
Meanwhile, in much of the developing world, those who were already struggling will face literal starvation. Especially children.
So much for these "brilliant sanctions" intended to "neutralize Russia" and stop it from "threatening the free world."

Based on your reply, it sounds like there is no fertilizer coming out of that plant in Houston, and nobody knows if or when it will ever be available again.

I'll leave you with two links that illustrate what is likely to happen. While the first link might not be a certainty, what it describes is almost certainly going to play out.

All of this has unfolded incredibly quickly, happening over just a matter of days

And then there is this specific scenario being mapped out by the analysts over at JPMorgan Chase, should we see a situation where the empire decides to strike back
https://seebiz.eu/energetika/jpmorga...e-nafte/278171

All because the Ukrainians refused to bow down to Vladimir Putin.
Vladimir Putin just got lucky—something you haven't experienced. You'd probably hand him your car, your house, or your wife just to keep gas prices low.$3.25

In Russia, they sanctioned a journalist just because she reported on the Russian bombardment of Mariupol. Apparently, according to them, Russians don't actually do stuff like that.

urbanotter said:I've tried to look at this without getting caught up in any ideology, and honestly, it barely has much of an impact on fuel prices.

Thanks for clarifying that we're actually at war with "Putler"—if he's even the same person I think he is, since it feels like everyone changes their names and titles so often these days.

Man, I must have been completely misinformed if I spent all this time thinking Russia was just fighting in Ukraine.

If we're officially in a state of war then, does that mean we should expect a general mobilization soon?

But let's get back to the topic of sanctions, because I really have no interest in debating ideological mantras or tired political clichés anymore.

Sanctions hit Russia and its people. They hit Putin and the oligarchs too. They can't go spending dollars all over the world anymore; it's just rubles around Moscow. Anything outside of Moscow feels poor and left behind. Honestly, maybe the sanctions are actually good for Russia if those billionaires start spending their money—which belongs to the people—on infrastructure instead. By helping Russia and its citizens, they're basically just finding a way to keep spending and enjoying themselves using everyone else's money.

urbanotter said:My colleague Nancy Gomez26,
I am still sitting here waiting for an answer regarding how the current shortages, the skyrocketing cost of synthetic fertilizer, and the subsidized diesel—all triggered by the heavy sanctions placed on Russia—
will impact our own fall planting season here in the States, and whether Europe will ever truly achieve food self-sufficiency again.

I would also appreciate it if you could clarify which specific new scientific methods you are referring to, who exactly is conducting this research, and when farmers across Europe can actually expect to access them so they can operate with little to no reliance on synthetic fertilizers and diesel.
Who are these scientists? Because, frankly, everything these seven EU anti-samurai types have "invented" so far has just been turned into more sanctions, which has mostly just backfired.

Additionally, if you happen to have any intel on when the fertilizer factory in Indianapolis will resume operations,
since they reportedly halted production because natural gas became too expensive, I'd love to know what the approximate price per unit of fertilizer will be once they finally get back online.

And I’d ask that we move away from the "crushing boots" metaphors regarding who is being stepped on and by whom; we went quite extensively into that debate during our discussion about America. If you want to revisit that, let's take it over there. For now, let's stay focused right here on the sanctions and their actual fallout—looking specifically at the economies and food production of both those who imposed them and those who are feeling the brunt of them.🙂🙂

Sanctions cut both ways. It's just that one side is the aggressor and the other is the collateral damage. Since we're at war with Putin, we better hope he doesn't start aiming at us too.

Linda Collins3 said:Nobody actually claimed Ukrainians are fighting solely for outside interests—you just had to read the part where I said "effectively" and "among other things."
But like I said (since you clearly missed it), they *are* effectively fighting for outside interests too. And it’s because of that specific overlap that they get the weapons, not necessarily because of their fight for freedom. Now people act like there should be a bill sent to them for it...

Ukrainians are fighting for themselves. They can choose to say no if they don't want Russia close by. Who could possibly force them to think any differently?🤷

crimsoncyclist71 said:Then why don't you move to Russia?
Every single one of your posts reeks of a pathological hatred for the West. It's unclear what you're still doing here. What exactly are you waiting for? For the USA and England to turn into proletarian states? 🤔

Total masochist. Russia is paradise for someone like him, yet he stays here rotting. He can't even stand the word "war." He'd much rather live by following Putin's orders, but hey, some people just love the pain.

Noah Diaz said:Everyone knows exactly who started this fight and who is just trying to survive.

The real issue is that most people don't think for themselves; they let someone else do their mental heavy lifting.

At this rate, paying through the nose for energy costs is just another way of shooting ourselves in the foot.

Fuel prices were going up anyway, even before Putin decided to go after Ukraine. How does that work?

Bryan Booth82 said:The whole forum mob gathers just to bicker over who’s who. 🤣

AJ, why don't you guys just head to Ukraine? I heard Zelenko pays well.

There are really two types of people here. Some actually get who the aggressor is, while others think "denazification" is a perfectly fine excuse for targeting a nation.

NATO hits back at aggressors, I think most people get that part.

urbanotter said:Please spare me the melodrama and your supposed crystal ball predictions.

Just get back to discussing the sanctions if you actually have something substantive to contribute regarding them.

You're sitting here lecturing about sanctions while your own ship is sinking. Go tell Putin.

urbanotter said:Unfortunately for me, I’m running a much larger setup with a 1,000-gallon tank, and my engine burns through fuel a bit faster at about 5 gallons an hour.
It seems these "sanctions" have kept my boat tied to the dock for two months now, and it’s genuinely threatening the livelihoods of four or five families who depend on this work.

Sadly, these sanctions don't just impact the people sitting around, waiting for an excuse to walk down to the local coffee shop to kill time by coming up with clever nicknames for Vladimir Putin.

He only looks out for himself until disaster actually hits his own doorstep. Then, suddenly, everyone else is to blame—even Putin. He'd throw anyone under the bus just to save his own skin, let alone someone in Ukraine. The guy doesn't get that we aren't the ones making these calls; we're just living through the fallout. The only person who can actually stop this aggression is Putin.

hollowdriver13 said:Spot on. You voted in the polls supporting the Russian side, so why try to muddy the waters now?

Just so there's no confusion or anyone claiming I'm making stuff up, here's the link to the poll right here on the forum.

There are just certain people who love to take what isn't theirs, claim credit for others, and act like saying "one Russian or one Mexican equals all of Russia or all of Mexico" is a rule. If you don't agree, they come after you. It's always the same—they pick on someone weaker.

He’s just worried about gas prices. He couldn't care less about the war. It isn't happening in his own backyard.

Sanctions hurt Russia just as much as they hit Europe. But there really isn't any other way. Europe could have stepped up and said, just like Al Gore once did, "this isn't our fight." If they had, fuel would be $3.25 right now and we wouldn't be seeing so many Ukrainians or even the existence of Ukraine being
.

Melissa Ward said:Honestly, the war is pretty much wrapped up at this point. Just a few more small towns and the whole Donbas region will be under control.

That’s when the real trouble starts. You still have to win it all back. It's like when territory was seized during the North American conflicts—that's when the real fight begins.

urbanotter said:The sanctions placed on Russia aren't the only ones that have ended up hurting the West.
When we imposed embargoes on Venezuela, it left their oil facilities in such terrible technical shape
that even if Venezuela wanted to ramp up production right now, they simply couldn't—not until the entire system is overhauled and brought back to a state where increasing output is even possible.

We saw the exact same pattern with Iran; under the weight of sanctions, they haven't been able to expand their capacity.
And let's be honest, Trump's unilateral decision to tear up the Iran nuclear deal certainly didn't help Iran find ways to increase production either.
Then there is Biden's ban on selling weapons to the Saudis because of the war in Yemen, which led the Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman to essentially ignore Biden. They can't even settle on a date for Biden to visit Saudi Arabia to plead with the crown prince to meet the American demand for increased production.

That prince recently remarked that he puts more faith in Putin's word, since he has consistently honored his agreements, whereas he doesn't trust the Americans—even when they sign formal treaties, they seem to look for any loophole to walk away whenever it no longer serves their interests.
Consequently, the chances of increasing production to boost supply and lower crude oil prices are slim to none.
The US is self-sufficient in oil production, and frankly, current prices suit them just fine because they allow them to maintain expensive production through fracking techniques.
The real issue arises when the companies owning these reserves export the oil to Europe if the payoff is better there than it is domestically.
In years past, when prices climbed, these companies would immediately start drilling new wells.
But that practice has stalled; they aren't opening new wells even when prices look favorable.
The reason is simple: drilling requires massive capital investment, and with prices being so volatile, they fear that if oil prices drop, those investments won't ever pay off.

All in all, the outlook isn't exactly bright for the West regarding an increase in oil production that would result in lower market prices.
Nsi that little guy doesn't care about Biden, so I suppose we shouldn't be surprised if he spends his time talking to ghosts instead.

You could have heard all of this today during a ten-minute segment featuring analyst Maria Gatara in conversation with Željko Kardum.
At this point, it feels like sanctions are becoming less of a strategic tool and more of a shot in the foot.

To really get the issue, you have to put yourself in those shoes. Say I run a shop ten feet away from yours. But for reasons only I know, every single time you walk in, I bring up your wife. 😁Because of that, you aren't going to shop with me anymore; you'll just go to the shop a hundred feet away instead. You wouldn't call that a shot to your own foot, would you?

darkdriver said:Honestly, I bet like 90%—maybe even more—of the crews looking at that PDF don't even care about the fuel prices. It could be anything, really... $10As far as they're concerned...

It’s not about Russian aggression. People are just pointing out how much a barrel costs versus what we pay at the pump. Everyone agrees gas prices are climbing way faster than the price of oil itself.

bluerider63 said:Sanctions definitely work. I mean, Russia is pulling in oil money like there's no tomorrow, while back here in the States, we're getting hit with news that gas prices are jumping to $5.25/gal.

Sure, Russia is making bank right now, but this isn't sustainable long-term. Once you spread today's profits over the next decade, we'll probably end up footing the bill from our own paychecks just to make up the difference.

urbanotter said:I have to wonder where you're getting your information from—where on earth did you find an American ATM that carries rubles and actually accepts them?

With a nose for finding things like that, you could probably make a fortune hunting for truffles out in the countryside.

But setting aside the jokes, if we look at how sanctions are actually impacting the ruble, here is what the situation looks like:

The Russian ruble has been at its strongest point in two years. How is that possible?

You go ahead and collect rubles, I'll stick to dollars. 🙂No switching sides here. 😁