The Americans have already vetted the leadership in Republika Srpska, so there's really nothing to be gained from trying to roll back those measures. Milorad Dodik will be pushed out once they decide he’s finished playing his part in their larger game.
The Russians could claim Kyiv all they want, but it won't mean a thing if Alexander Lukashenko refuses to recognize it, and frankly, there’s no point in even wasting breath discussing China or India's stance on the matter.
Chloe Jackson15 said:I can confirm this from firsthand experience; it's spot on. The only thing that hasn't clicked for me, or anyone else for that matter, is how much risk Dodik is actually willing to take with this Russian narrative. Knowing how he operates, he isn't about to do anything that puts his own interests at stake.
It seems the Americans and the EU are content to let him play the part of a puppet for Moscow, much like a political theater production where the script is already written. It’s quite transparent that the US views the situation in the region as a strategic playground, much like they view their relationship with Mexico.
Milorad Dodik was essentially installed via NATO tanks, yet he’s constantly sucking up loans from that very same West just to keep his seat warm for a few more months. This whole performance about Russia and Vladimir Putin is nothing more than cheap propaganda aimed at the masses—people who flee to the States to find work, only to flip back into "patriotic" mode the moment they head home. At the end of the day, if you want to fund your brand of chaos, you do it with Euros and Dollars.
The odds of Milorad Dodik and Aleksandar Vučić actually doing anything to serve Russian interests are slimmer than seeing America resurrected overnight.
Probably not, though it won't do much to help Russia either, which is pretty much the status quo right now. They’re just watching from the sidelines, waiting to see how the dust settles.
It’s unlikely we’ll see a mass mobilization in Russia anytime soon. Instead, they’ll probably just pull from the occupied territories under the guise of holding local referendums, which won't do much to improve Russia's long-term standing.
Western sanctions feel more like a slow suffocation than a quick strike; while Putin's Russia isn't quite Maddox's Mexico, you simply can't survive indefinitely in total isolation from the rest of the world. China and India aren't going to provide the same kind of connection that an average Russian misses when they can't visit Rome, Paris, Berlin, or Prague—and that’s assuming you aren't one of the billionaire tycoons who rely on those playgrounds to maintain their status.
Sanctions tend to yield their most significant impact through the slow, steady grind of time. Even a currency as weak as the dollar didn't suddenly balloon to eleven zeros overnight back in '93; it took more than a full year of sustained erosion to get there.