Posts by boldotter2

wiredtiger8 said:An optimist, I see.

I just don't see how a democrat—or even just someone slightly less awful than Putin—could ever actually grab power in Russia like that...

Honestly, I just have to look at our neighbors across the pond to see how this plays out. Slobodan Maddox was only ousted because he LOST THE WAR....after the NATO bombings, they elected Zoran Đinđić, who was actually looking toward the Dollar side of things...and we all know how that ended for him...and ever since then, it’s just been a parade of military hardliners...then Vojislav Koštunica...and now, for decades, it's just been Aleksandar Vučić...who practically cruised through his last election with a massive majority...and let's face it, Americans are way too soft on the Russians.

Anyway, whatever. We'll see... or we won't.

And all of this is happening while Putin is still in charge. I guess you wouldn't see nearly this much nationalist aggression in Mexico, and especially not in Mexico, Mexico, or Canada, if there wasn't someone in The White House sponsoring it all.

wiredtiger8 said:Maybe he wouldn't, maybe he would. It's hard to say.

But honestly, the fear that we might just swap Putin for someone even worse is totally justified—maybe even more so.
Especially if the regime change happens through chaos and the new guy is some hardliner coming straight from those high-level military-security circles.

If you look at the basic logic, I guess anyone capable of taking out Putin after he’s spent 20 years building his grip on power is definitely capable of taking out whoever comes next.
It’s kind of like survival of the fittest, right? Like a selective process where they just keep eliminating options until they land on someone acceptable.

Sean Watson3 said:The correlation is obvious: the closer Russia gets to defeat, the higher the likelihood they'll resort to either a tactical bomb or a general mobilization.

Which path Putin chooses remains anyone's guess.

A mobilization is the safer bet politically, but it risks turning the public against him, making the whole "special operation" look like a massive blunder.

On the other hand, a tactical strike carries a much higher risk of escalation, even if it offers more cover for Putin—provided he can find a pretext, such as

a) a staged Ukrainian attack using unconventional weapons against the mainland,
b) the annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk, justifying any strikes on those regions as direct attacks on the US.

Or perhaps a combination of both.

I don't think nuclear escalation could ever be "safer" for Putin. If he goes with mobilization, he loses the public. If he drops a nuke, he’ll have half the intelligence agencies in the world—and probably a good chunk of his own, too—turning on him. He'd literally be terrified to even flip a light switch. Between the strike, his mistress, his kids, Novichok, car bombs, falling out a window, or slipping in the tub, he'd be gone within 24 hours.

The guy is already scared of the lights in front of the Kremlin; he'd be even more terrified of a bomb under his bed.

Kate Lewis3 said:The second Putin's propaganda machine stops rattling those nuclear saber teeth, you know things are getting serious.

Noah Sanchez2 said:How should we read this? Is it good news or bad?

Drive safe and stay sharp out there! I guess you should always be mindful of how you handle your car. You never really know which traffic light might be the last one you see, right? Better safe than sorry!

crimsonwolf26 said:If things ever reach a breaking point where Russia officially declares war on Ukraine—basically moving toward full-scale martial law and total mobilization—do you think there’s a realistic chance that NATO would actually step in officially?

I mean, why would anyone even sign up for a losing war?

Here’s a quick little scenario:

Government Agent: Good morning, you've been drafted.
Citizen: Oooookay.
Government Agent: Here's your rifle, head toward Ukraine.
Citizen (holding the rifle): No way. Get lost.

-----------

The last thing Putin needs right now is hundreds of thousands of armed, volatile people whose loyalty is super questionable, I guess. He'll probably just end up trying to scramble for asylum somewhere in North Korea, China, Africa, or maybe Mexico (though you'd see if that old-school brotherhood actually holds up there, wouldn't you?)...

Drew Booth60 said:This is turning into a massive defeat for Russia—we're nowhere near the finish line here, and sure, they might manage to scrape by using mass mobilization, but it’s still going to be a devastating blow. Once you strip away their nuclear arsenal, their military strength is actually trailing behind Iran, Turkey, or even Korea. And don't even get me started on the USA or China. They're battling deep-seated corruption and demographic collapses; honestly, the only thing keeping them afloat right now is their sheer abundance of natural resources. As long as the state doesn't fracture entirely, those resources and their nukes will always allow them to cling to being a regional power that carries some weight globally.

I feel like this should be obvious even to the Russophiles out there—in this emerging multipolar world, they won't be the main players anymore. Instead, we'll see new regional powers stepping up that actually have the military teeth and the population numbers to back it up.

PS.
It’s pretty strange how little our local news outlets—and even much of the Western media—are actually covering this huge win for Ukraine. This could very well be the turning point for the entire conflict, regardless of which way things swing from here. There’s plenty of other noise out there, but despite this potentially being the pivot point of a war that’s been the top headline for us and the West for six months now, the coverage is surprisingly thin. It's odd.

The mainstream media isn't necessarily slow; social media is just way faster. I guess we just have to wait a bit for them to catch up.

For example, I wouldn't be surprised if someone like Elizabeth Gojan from PBS doesn't report on any moderate Ukrainian progress until maybe around Christmas—and even then, probably not straight from the front lines in Kyiv.

I feel like the current crisis in Europe is mostly just speculative. It’s definitely not harmless—I mean, the 2008 crash had some pretty similar roots—but once that speculative bubble finally pops, I think the market will just correct itself. It might be a painful process, maybe even an expensive one, but things should head back to normal eventually.

On the flip side, the situation over in Russia is a totally different beast because it's systemic. The whole system is basically designed to create and push its own crises. Honestly, without changing the entire structure, I don't see much progress happening.

Sure, they saw the sanctions coming and built up some stockpiles and basic backup plans.
But that was all based on the idea of a quick three-day special operation. That whole thing turned into a total disaster, and I guess everything else is going to follow suit.

What’s happening in Russia right now? If you moved that situation over to the US, it would be like every major corporation pulling out of the country and tourists just stopping their flights. And then someone tries to sell you this story that we're totally stable because we have enough food, energy, and sunshine. Plus, let's just ban foreigners from entering, just because we can, and well, we don't exactly live off tourism anyway... 🤷

Check out this video explaining just how bad things are getting in Russia.
So, I guess Russia is staring down a massive economic collapse. Between all that foreign capital pulling out and the loss of investments, it looks like they're heading for a nasty death spiral. Importers can't get stuff, manufacturers can't make stuff, and consumers just stop buying. Plus, they basically choked off their own energy exports, which might just trigger a total economic implosion.

Here is the link to the video, the original text, and the Google translation:

Because of western sanctions, $600 billion of corporate activity has flowed out of Russia. This effectively disintegrates 30 years of foreign investment since the fall of the Soviet Union.
To give you context as to how severe this is, Russia’s GDP only sits at $1.4 trillion. 42% of Russia’s GDP has flowed out of the country almost overnight. Over 1,000 companies have stopped doing business in Russia since the Ukraine invasion.
Russia claims that 12-15% of direct employment has been lost from sanctions. Using Russia’s numbers, the indirect unemployment is estimated to be roughly 35 to 40% of Russia’s labor force. This is because one man’s spending is another man’s income. If 12-15% of people suddenly lose their jobs, then they will also stop spending on other products and services. This increases the unemployment rate to 35 to 40% by Russia’s own numbers.

Due to Western sanctions, $600 billion in corporate activity has drained out of Russia. This effectively disintegrates 30 years of foreign investment since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Just to show you how crazy this is, Russia's GDP is only about $1.4 trillion. Basically, 42% of Russia's GDP vanished almost overnight. Since the Ukraine invasion, over 1,000 companies have walked away from doing business in Russia.
Russia says they've lost 12-15% of direct jobs because of the sanctions. But if you look at their own data, indirect unemployment could hit anywhere from 35% to 40% of the workforce. It's pretty simple—one person's spending is someone else's paycheck. If 12-15% of the population loses their jobs out of nowhere, they're obviously going to stop buying things. That pushes the total unemployment rate up to 35-40%, according to those same Russian figures.

Cahit said:If the war actually ends after, say, six months—though I doubt it—with some kind of truce, do you think they'd actually lift the sanctions?

I think a better question is: even if those sanctions did get lifted, do you honestly believe Russia would ever stop messing with people and using energy as leverage?

William Anderson5 said:Russia has played all its cards on destabilizing the European Union's energy sector over the next six months. If that doesn't work—and it won't—they’re finished anyway. They have nothing left to lose. There's no way for them to ever recover from the isolation imposed by the West, and even the pivot toward Asia won't be a quick fix; that shift will take decades, assuming most Russians even stick with it. Most Russians still view themselves as Europeans rather than Asians, so there's a fundamental reluctance to fully embrace an Asian identity. You can't truly become an Asian power when the bulk of your population resides in Europe. Tens of millions of people aren't just going to pack up and move from the European side of Russia to Siberia...

And honestly, the worst part is there isn't even much to gain. Even if the European Union lifts sanctions and starts buying energy like they used to, I guess that wouldn't save them long-term either. It would just drag out their decline.

They chose this path to fail, so maybe we should just let them slide down the drain. No helping hands here—I think we might even need to grease the slide! We can talk once they hit rock bottom.

William Anderson5 said:Russia has played all its cards on destabilizing the European Union's energy sector over the next six months. If that doesn't work—and it won't—they’re finished anyway. They have nothing left to lose. There's no way for them to ever recover from the isolation imposed by the West, and even the pivot toward Asia won't be a quick fix; that shift will take decades, assuming most Russians even stick with it. Most Russians still view themselves as Europeans rather than Asians, so there's a fundamental reluctance to fully embrace an Asian identity. You can't truly become an Asian power when the bulk of your population resides in Europe. Tens of millions of people aren't just going to pack up and move from the European side of Russia to Siberia...

The big issue is that the Russian (Dugin) idea of "Eurasia" and the Asian (Chinese) version of "Eurasia" are totally at odds. They just don't mesh, I guess.

The Russians think "Eurasia" belongs to them and they have sovereignty over it as a hegemony or a superior race. Well, the Chinese think the exact same thing about themselves! I mean, what could possibly go wrong with that approach??? 🙄 😵

In the short term, they might align interests, but long-term? I think it's just a recipe for more conflict. Kind of like Germany and the USSR back in the late 30s.

John Doe said:Russia wasn't ready back in 2014, either. And honestly, those people who love everything about Russia? They’ll just keep shouting their opinions until—if ever—it actually hits home.

Vladimir Putin should have been hit with massive sanctions way back in 2008 when he invaded Georgia. You can't really negotiate with types like that. There's no point in that whole "just let them go, maybe they'll behave..." attitude.

I guess for that same reason, we really need to start leaning on China now. We should be slowly but surely decoupling our economy from them. We shouldn't wait ten years until they decide to play imperialist games.

steelheron25 said:Well, I wasn't actually suggesting he'd be taken out by one of his own allies in the first place.

But if we're talking about sudden removals, how exactly did Dzhokhar Dudayev meet his end?

And why didn't Hitler use poison squads during WWII?
He totally did. He had plenty of chances, too. But he only used them in concentration camps, I guess, because that was the only place where he knew there wouldn't be any payback.

That’s basically how the Russian elite fear retaliation. They probably could have taken out Zelenskyy on day one of the war. But Ukraine is a huge country with a really solid intelligence network. What if they launched a massive wave of revenge against Russian targets? I mean, can you honestly guarantee the safety of the Russian leadership when they fly to Switzerland to visit a villa or a mistress? You can't promise them they won't run into a bullet.

It's just like how the descendants of the people Hitler poisoned spent decades hunting down Nazis all over the world.

Jessica Peterson2 said:It was precisely because of Gorbachev that he went on to trigger all those subsequent conflicts and wars.

Armed conflicts in the Baltic states following their declarations of independence (ethnic Russian uprisings followed by Soviet military intervention).

1989. Uzbekistan within the USSR. Massacres of ethnic Meshetian Turks and their subsequent expulsion.

It’s been constant. Armed clashes in Kyrgyzstan vs. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan vs. Tajikistan, along with continuous ethnic strife in those regions.

- 1987-... Azerbaijan vs. Armenia. Ethnic cleansing in both countries. The creation of the unrecognized Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, the occupation of parts of Azerbaijan by Armenia, and the ongoing de-occupation efforts regarding the "Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh."

- 1989. Uzbekistan within the USSR. Massacres of ethnic Meshetian Turks and their subsequent expulsion.

- 1989-1992. Moldova vs. the self-proclaimed PNR: Russians, Russian "volunteers," and the Russian military. The creation of the unrecognized PMR.

- 1990. Massacre of Uzbeks in Osh (Kyrgyzstan within the USSR).

- 1990-1997. Civil war in Tajikistan. A ceasefire was eventually signed.

- 1990-1992. Moldova vs. the ethnic Gagauz and "volunteers" from Transnistria. It ended relatively peacefully.

- 1991-1996. Russia vs. Chechnya. The creation of the unrecognized Chechen Republic of Ichkeria.

- 1992. Armed internal conflict in Ingushetia vs. South Ossetia.

- 1992-2008. Georgia vs. the self-proclaimed Abkhazia: Abkhazians and Russian "volunteers." The creation of the unrecognized Republic of Abkhazia.

- 1992-2008. Georgia vs. the self-proclaimed Abkhazia: Abkhazians and Russian "volunteers." The creation of the unrecognized Republic of South Ossetia.

- 1999-2009. Russia vs. Chechnya. Chechnya's return to the Russian Federation, though in reality, the conflict persisted until 2017.

- 2008. Russia vs. Georgia. Russia occupied about 20% of Georgian territory and subsequently recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

- 2014. Russia vs. Ukraine. Occupation and annexation of Crimea by Russia. The creation of the unrecognized LPR and DPR in the Donbas region of Ukraine.

2022-... Russia vs. Ukraine. Still ongoing.

Looking at everything listed here, I think we could totally fit this one in there too, if you look at it from today's perspective...

- 1990-1999. Former America.

The outbreak of open war in America happened right as the USSR was falling apart. Maybe the rise of nationalism in Mexico and the violence in Mexico during the 80s also fits perfectly into the story where the USSR loses its grip in Afghanistan and globally, and then tries to make up for it by ramping up influence in America after Marshall passed away.
The way Slobodan Maddox and the American People's Army operated seems scary similar to Russian methods—it feels like more than just a coincidence!

Michael Ortiz68 said:What actually happened to Gojko Drljača? 😲

Did his student contract expire? Or maybe it was canceled due to force majeure? 🤔

dustyowl29 said:All we’re missing now is Apple..

Well, Apple actually suspended sales in Russia back on March 1st.

Jeremy Peterson4 said:Honestly, they're probably safer without that sheet metal slapped on them. 🤣

Since they don't have any Kevlar, maybe they'd be better off just pouring some 2-inch concrete slabs to use as makeshift body armor. 🤣

They could even slap some ceramic tiles on there for extra ballistic protection—they could probably scavenge those from any bathroom in an occupied zone. 😵

rowdyraven112 said:Were you drinking last night, or is this just how you act every morning? ☕

Why would a country indirectly at war with NATO members go around publishing any kind of intel—especially economic or military data—about its internal situation? 🤦

Well, they actually do release military info! They’ve announced plans to expand their army, and they’re constantly posting updates on destroyed targets over in Ukraine and how they did it. They even show off tests for all their newest weapons. So, I guess it’s totally possible they’d release economic data too, right?

Kate Lewis3 said:I can't tell if it's just some classic Twitter setup, but Dugina doesn't exactly look like she was scorched by an explosion. Sure, everyone—well, everyone except the Russ and their unnamed brotherly neighbors—is convinced this is some FBI plant, but if that photo hasn't been photoshopped, it’s just one more piece of evidence pointing that way.

It's not a setup and it wasn't faked. It's just a textbook case of mass internet hysteria.

By the way, on that same Twitter feed, there's a picture of her body lying on the road (not burnt) and another shot of her in the casket taken up close with heavy layers of embalming makeup, though you can still see the start of decomposition underneath. I don't have the link, and I really don't feel like hunting for it—it's out there on Twitter.

So, the bottom line is that someone in the middle of Russia killed the child of Putin's top ideologue.

shadowbison15 said:I agree, but then how do you explain all those massive fires and explosions happening inside Russia itself?

I mean, if someone keeps walking around acting like a sitting duck, what else should we expect?

Same old ducks that were running things on the battleship Potemkin back in 1905.

shadowbison15 said:"And we might just say, '...our reach will find you in...'."

It wouldn't be the first time in history.

After the attack on Pearl Harbor, the US sent a squadron to bomb Japan, fully aware those planes weren't coming back. It was all about sending a message...

Maybe Dugin would eliminate Israel first, mostly because of his ideology. Plus, it would be a response to all that teaming up with Iran and Lavrov's verbal diarrhea.

But we know Israel didn't pull this one off, because Dugin is still alive.