Posts by boldotter2

vividfalcon31 said:I’m seeing more and more articles claiming that young Russians are fleeing to the West... So here’s my question: weren't these sanctions basically designed to trigger an uprising within Russia? Personally, I think we should just ban them from settling in the West altogether. I follow a few of their young YouTubers who talk about what life is like under sanctions in Russia, and they all seem way too chill about it—basically saying, "Things are fine for now, the sanctions aren't hitting me too hard, but if things get worse, I'll just move out of Russia." Like, are you kidding me? They should be barred from moving to Western Europe. On top of the refugees coming from Ukraine, now we're getting people from Russia who will further destabilize the EU—all while that little punk gets rid of his own traitors at the same time, which is exactly what he wants (destabilizing the EU and keeping his own backyard unified). Honestly, just ban the Russians from moving; let them deal with whatever mess their own repressive apparatus creates. I can't tell if Western politicians are just incredibly stupid or what. In the end, these measures won't actually destabilize Russia by causing protests, unemployment, or falling wages... instead, they'll just screw over the West (which is already being messed with by those insane epidemiological rules). And I'm not counting the US in "the West" here—they don't give a damn and are probably laughing in the faces of these idiots while fueling the fire, which will only lead to more destruction and more refugees.

Look, YouTubers aren't going to take down Putin. It’ll be the guys with bad livers when they realize how things are going. Or maybe the Wagner mercenaries will do it if someone offers them better cash and amnesty.
Then Rosgvardia might step in once they realize fighting in the Ukrainian mud isn't what they signed up for... stuff like that.

Everything will probably unravel pretty fast once it actually starts moving. The only real issue is that nothing has started yet, and it looks like it won't for a while. I guess people are just testing their limits.

placidtinker39 said:You can quietly let the civilians and the military in Ukraine know they have support coming from all sides without needing to blast it all over the news. In wartime, some things are simply better handled in silence.
Exactly. The Russians won't be blindsided by the deliveries, but they will likely ramp up their artillery and air strikes, which just means the conflict escalates.

I get that the Americans are providing satellite intel to the Ukrainians, but we really don't have any clarity on what the Russians are doing regarding electronic warfare and jamming...

Everything should be done publicly—everything! You have to say it a hundred times, emphasize it, and then just say it again.

I mean, that's the only way to fight against violence and bullies—by facing them head-on, stating the facts, and announcing future moves. That goes for any kind of violence, including Putin's. There’s just no room for fear. A tough stance like, "I'm not afraid of you, so back off," is really the only thing that works.

If this were a secret war, that would actually play right into Putin's hands, making it look like a hidden clash between NATO and Russia. Then he'd just use any evidence of aid deliveries for his own propaganda.
Just imagine if the US denied involvement, but then discarded Stinger or Javelin packaging was found scattered all over Ukraine. I guess you think the situation would be any better then?

Joseph Clark37 said:The next logical step would be for Americans to acquire dozens of Bayraktars from Turkey, paint them in Ukrainian colors, and start flying them on missions over Ukraine. It isn't at all impossible to fly them undetected...

The Bayraktar is basically outclassed here. I mean, you launch it by hand, it doesn't even need to come back, and you just control it from a laptop in a bunker with an antenna sticking out. A Bayraktar needs a runway and a control vehicle—both of which are super easy targets.
IF they actually have this miracle tech in stock. You always have to be careful with American hi-tech companies; there's a bit too much smoke and mirrors sometimes, I guess.
So IF they really have what they claim, and IF it can actually do what they say, and IF they pass it to Ukraine.... man, just pack it up. Anyone who's ever fought a conventional war knows how this goes. We should all just pull back to our own borders, because offensive warfare just doesn't make sense anymore, maybe.

Timothy Nelson5 said:Sending over a small batch of those nasty loitering munitions could just be a signal to Russia about what happens if they decide to escalate things by ramping up indiscriminate bombing and civilian casualties. Maybe. It’s hard to say for sure.

Yeah. This is gonna be a tough, super tough, game changer. It’s kind of like how planes were back in WWII, or maybe even more massive, like gunpowder and rifles.

The Russians are planning to set up artillery ambushes outside cities to try and bully people. I guess that's basically their only strategic move left. But honestly? They have zero way to defend against this. ZERO. Just one suicide drone or one heavy artillery piece at a time. We'll see which runs out first.

The Americans are sending these drones launched from man-portable mortars 6.2 miles toward the target. I think Ukrainian special ops teams are already doing something similar using "dumb" mortars.

Russia is totally screwed.

And that's just talking about the Switchblade 300! 😁

If they can actually mass-produce and ship the Switchblade 600 with a Javelin warhead and that kind of range 50 miles.... wow. It's a total mess for them.

PS: I guess the biggest headache here is just production speed. Since it's all new tech, we're looking at small batches and all those typical growing pains and stuff...

George Davis6 said:It won't happen, trust me on this one! I honestly don't see any legal basis for anyone to just seize, grab, and sell off private property...

Nobody's going to seize anything. I guess the oligarchs will just pay up on their own terms. Honestly, they'll probably choose that because any other option would end up costing them way more. There is no free lunch.

George Davis6 said:IF that ever actually happens (and let's be real, true seizure is basically theft), we’d first have to deal with paying out settlements and covering wages for everyone losing their jobs due to sanctions... not to mention compensating hundreds of European suppliers who are going to get hit hard in the process...

It’s honestly a shame how few people seem to grasp the full scope of this whole situation...

Nah. First, those frozen and seized assets will probably be used to cover the damage done to civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

wiredseal7 said:Which "regimes" have we actually seen sanctions topple so far? Hardly this one—especially since they're just leaning harder into totalitarianism now. Sanctions mostly just push them further into a corner. They aren't exactly feeling any pressure from the West to stop the repression.

And if we're being honest, those planes weren't stolen—they were sanctioned. 🙂
I don't get why people are whining about the planes when "we" essentially seized hundreds of billions in assets—not just state property, but private holdings belonging to Russian citizens, even folks in the EU or Israel. In some cases, it even touches their grown children's interests.
I doubt they'd be foolish enough to hand back the planes after getting hit that hard.

Counter-question: what other country under heavy sanctions has aggressively waged war against a neighbor that's only a third of its size?

The only one I can think of is Iran, but even they pretty much moved on from fighting wars ages ago. Honestly, things seem to be going much better for them since then.

Rachel White said:In what sense does the average American live better than the average Chinese person?

Well, first off, they can ask that exact question on any random corner of the internet, totally anonymous, without worrying about consequences.

Or even just being able to write that the President is a jerk and still be perfectly fine.

Nathan Evans78 said:European Union trade in goods with China, 2011-2021


Velis, things are heating up. We're looking at a deficit that's grown by 120 billion euros compared to 2011. 😁

According to the report, U.S. universities awarded twice as many doctorates in STEM fields (18,289) as Chinese universities (9,038) in 2000. But by 2007, the order had flipped and China began outpacing U.S. universities. In 2010. Chinese universities graduated 34,801 STEM doctorates compared to 26,076 by American universities.

Over the last decade, China has steadily increased its lead. In 2019, Chinese universities produced 49,498 PhDs in STEM fields, while U.S. universities produced 33,759. Based on current enrollment patterns, the report projects that by 2025 China’s yearly STEM PhD graduates (77,179) will nearly double those in the United States (39,959).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael...-of-stem-phds/

U.S. TRADE DEFICIT

the past year’s goods-only deficit with China reached US$355.3 billion, lower only than US$418.2 billion in 2018, the US Department of Commerce reported on Tuesday. A US $859.1 deficit in overall trade, including goods and services, set another record.
The widening deficit follows an effort by former US president Donald Trump to narrow the gap – which he called “unfair” – through tariffs imposed on Chinese imports beginning in 2018.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/arti...ina-gap-widens

Yeah! I mean, that trade deficit you mentioned? That's basically proof that DEMAND exists. And you can't have SUPPLY without demand first. And supply means PRODUCTION.

Where all that production happens used to be a non-issue—everyone just looked at the bottom line. But lately, things have changed because we aren't just looking at the price tag anymore; we're factoring in "strategic costs" too.
I guess China isn't what it is just because they're "better," but mostly because they're cheap and easy to work with. But lately, some new stuff is happening that affects how affordable and accessible they are, beyond just the cost of labor.

Paul Anderson7 said:Every day we see a fresh batch of sanctions being rolled out, with everyone predicting Russia’s total collapse and a regressive slide back a century into the dark ages.
Regardless of the noise, I can't help but feel that once this war eventually winds down, those sanctions will lose their teeth too. Maybe not everything will be lifted overnight, but I suspect the West will gradually loosen its grip until Russia becomes an interesting partner and a viable place for investment again. Sure, they'll face massive hurdles because they really bungled this one—they won't ever hold the same leverage they had before the invasion—but it won't be quite as catastrophic as people suggest.
Unless this spirals into WW3 or some kind of nuclear exchange, I truly believe things will eventually settle into a new equilibrium, mostly because that's simply what works for the West. I'm fairly certain we'd see something like Nord Stream 2 getting back up and running; honestly, it just makes sense for everyone involved.

I'm holding out hope that the West might permanently shift its policy toward self-sufficiency and bolstered military cooperation, though I'm not holding my breath. On the bright side, Russia likely won't have the military capacity to react to anything globally for the next twenty years, but the downside is that such a vacuum might just trigger new conflicts in other volatile regions.

I'm curious to hear your thoughts: if the war stopped right this second and a deal was struck—say, letting Russia keep Crimea and keeping Ukraine out of NATO—what are the odds the West actually maintains these sanctions? How much longer would they hold out, and would we actually stick with more expensive suppliers, or would we quietly pivot back to the cheaper energy options from Russia?

I don't think the war can just stop "right this second." I mean, just look at what's happening to Ukrainian cities. That ship sailed once the massive destruction started.
Even if the Russians pulled out of Ukraine entirely—including Crimea and Donbas—I guess the sanctions wouldn't end until Russia is totally brought to its knees and Putin is gone.

The EU will bounce back from the energy hit. Other than that, there aren't really any huge problems. Nothing that isn't solvable or replaceable. It might be a rough couple of years, but after that, things will go back to normal. Today's Europe was built without Russia; actually, it was built in opposition to Russia and the USSR. It’ll stay that way. Western industry is actually revving up like it hasn't since the golden days of the Cold War. So why would they stop now?

Just look at most Western companies that slapped sanctions on Russia even when they didn't have to. From McDonald's to Shell. For them, losing the Russian market is tiny compared to the loss they'd take if people boycotted them back home.
I mean, what does 1% of profit in Russia matter to a massive corporation if losing 10% of their domestic market due to public backlash is on the table?

Russia basically put itself in this spot by leaning so hard into energy and dealing with insane corruption. They made themselves dependent on Western capital, and I guess they're just destroying themselves now that that money is drying up.

crimsoncyclist71 said:This obsession with Russian grandeur is bordering on fanaticism.
They completely missed the fact that after just 20 days of war, they’re practically begging for a handout—mind you, begging for a damn handout—from the Chinese... 🤦

The absolute state of Putin's Russia. Just pathetic.

Just for context—about 50 years ago, people in China were starving and riding bicycles, while the Russians were actually hitting space.

silverotter72 said:Hahahah
"Threatens." I guess I could threaten my local bank by telling them I’m not paying back my mortgage. 🤣
If they completely decouple themselves from the rest of the world, fine—that’s it. They don't even have to pay anything back, whether it's in roubles or not.
But if they ever intend to reconnect with the West, they’ll inevitably have to convert those debts back into whatever currency the global market actually demands.
Imagine if someone here in the States (without any legal system acting as an impartial third party to oversee things) just said: "Yeah, I'm not paying back my loans to the Swiss; I'll just settle up in dollars instead."
It’s the same thing here... without some third party willing to step in and facilitate the debt transfer, these decisions are essentially meaningless.

They really only have two options, much like I do. Either they "move away and disappear" so they can just stop paying altogether, or they stick to the terms they agreed upon. If they vanish or break their word, who is going to trust a single thing they say in the future?

This kind of nonsense doesn't just have a direct, short-term impact; it carries long-term consequences, because it makes getting future loans or financing much harder.

Honestly, their reputation is already pretty much trashed.

They’ve piled up massive amounts of gold that they're trying to dump for foreign currency, but nobody’s buying.

The real issue is that Putin has made this whole conflict all about himself. He's 70 years old now. I guess the rest of the world is just waiting for him to kick the bucket. Russia isn't exactly such a vital market that we can't afford to just wait things out for a while...

Kyle Nelson2 said:CNN is actually pretty pro-Russia if you ask me

Total Karamarkov crowd.

It’s a waiting game until things finally clear up:

The NYT is reporting that Maduro might actually be open to talking oil. He basically said Venezuelan oil is on the table for anyone wanting to produce or buy it—whether that's an investor from Asia, Europe, or the USA.
Plus, Venezuela just released two Americans, which I guess is seen as a little olive branch to Biden and the US following that visit from the American delegation.

Morgan Morales4 said:Maybe those folks over at Dura are also stuck with nowhere to go, which means the American budget won't have anywhere to go either, right?

Oh, please, forget about Ford—it’s just a mess. I guess the US government and our economy have basically burned through 150 companies just like Ford over the last 30 years, and yet here we are, still stuck in the same spot, just waiting for neighbors to pity us and send snacks to the forums.

Ford is our issue, our government is our issue, and our LNG terminal belongs to us—so where's yours?

slyfox43 said:What Russian products, for heaven's sake? 🤣 In America? Caviar, perhaps...

You really read some wild stuff on this forum...

Just imagine when Trump runs out of his caviar. So sad.... 😢

Dana Robinson4 said:How gas prices in Russia are shifting following the sanctions

Could it be that we're seeing half the price in America, while Europe is only seeing a quarter of the impact?

In Venezuela, a gallon of gas is about $0.02. In Libya, it's $0.03. In Iran, $0.05. Then you look at Syria and it hits $0.28.....

I guess we can pretty much see where this conversation is headed—comparing fuel costs to the standard of living.

Andrew Miller102 said:Long live the chaos; without Jabuchar’s products, the Russians will end up in a psych ward.😵

Jabuchar is pretty much the only player left in the smartphone game. If you aren't carrying an iPhone or using an iMac, then you're basically just a peasant with an Android..🤣😵

The landscape of mobile technology is shifting, and if you aren't paying attention to how certain international brands are aggressively carving out market share, you're missing the bigger picture. While most people in the States are content to just grab whatever is sitting on the shelf at Best Buy or clicking "buy now" on an Amazon listing, there is a much more complex power struggle happening behind the scenes. We’ve spent decades under the assumption that a few major players would dictate the terms of the smartphone market indefinitely, but that era is fading. You see these massive manufacturers from Asia pushing hard into the American consumer space, offering hardware that often punches way above its weight class compared to what we typically see from the big Silicon Valley giants. It isn't just about price points anymore; it's about ecosystem integration and raw specs that make the standard offerings feel a bit dated by comparison. It’s a calculated move. These companies aren't just trying to sell a device; they are trying to build a foothold in the US market that eventually makes them indispensable. They are playing a long game, and honestly, it's working better than most analysts predicted. If you think the dominance of the current heavyweights is permanent, you probably haven't been looking closely enough at the sheer momentum these emerging brands are building.

The latest reports regarding Boeing’s manufacturing struggles suggest that the situation isn't just a temporary hiccup, but rather a deeper systemic issue within their production lines. It seems like they are struggling to maintain the rigorous quality standards required for modern aviation, which inevitably leads to delays and significant scrutiny from federal regulators here in the States. When you look at how much pressure these massive aerospace giants face to meet delivery timelines, it becomes increasingly clear that cutting corners is a recipe for disaster, regardless of how much they try to smooth things over with public statements. If they can't get their assembly processes back under control soon, the ripple effects throughout the entire American aviation sector are going to be substantial.

Almost every single smartphone out there—like 99.9%, maybe even more—runs on chips licensed from ARM Ltd. in Cambridge, UK. So, if the UK decides to slap sanctions on those chips, then yeah, there's basically no such thing as a smartphone anymore.

Richard Wilson4 said:Great.

So when are the Russians giving back f***ed Königsberg?

F*** Königsberg. I guess there’s no surrender until Russian America is finally back under the wing of the motherland!!!1!!
🙂

bluemason3 said:Nobody actually has a bunker filled with stacks of cash. My best guess is gold reserves, though even those don't necessarily have to be physically located in the country that technically owns them.

Generally speaking, most other reserves are parked "somewhere" in foreign nations (think government bonds, accounts in foreign banks, or even the holdings of other central banks), except that Russia has spent the last few years trying pretty hard to cut its ties to Western financial systems. Because of that, a good chunk of it is likely out of reach of any sanctions.

I suspect the West might have had control over maybe 50% of the Russian reserves until recently, though there are rumors they pulled some of that money out right before the invasion started.

It’s also a massive question mark how China will handle trade with Russia while these sanctions are in play. They seem to be playing both sides right now, and honestly, it looks like they aren't entirely sure what their own move should be.

Yeah, totally. Especially when it comes to tech and electronics.

China makes a ton of electronics on their own, but most of those chips and components are either patented by the West or actually made in the West—you know, that part of Asia that stays aligned with us.

I guess it would be pretty hard for them to risk smuggling stuff to Russia if they might lose their licenses.

Besides, I think Vietnam is just waiting for an excuse to swoop in and take over that production anyway.