Posts by Arthur Watson4

wiredtiger8 said:And let's be real, the Ukrainians are also exaggerating a bit with these fuzzy numbers.

Look, it's clear the Russians are taking huge losses, but...

William Burns (head of the CIA) said yesterday that the Russians have about 15,000 dead, and that the Ukrainians also have "significant losses" (that's how he put it).
Now, if you apply even a shred of common sense and logic here, I'd say the CIA might be inflating Russian losses just a touch while downplaying Ukrainian ones (which are definitely significant, mind you)...

Personally, I’d love to see some actual data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense regarding their own human losses. I mean, they should have those numbers, right? But they aren't publishing them—they're guarding them like state secrets... all we know is that they are "significant." (allegedly, according to the CIA).

In Russia, as of July 15th, they had recorded roughly 4,760 soldier burials specifically related to the conflict in Ukraine—meaning documented individual cases.

I believe the DNR announced back in May that they had around 2,600 dead and about 8,000 wounded.

As for the LNR, I don't think they released anything.

So, when you factor in the ones that will never be found or those buried in Russia without being reported in the news, I’d say current estimates are actually pretty reasonable, maybe even a bit conservative.

And honestly, it makes total sense why foreign nations wouldn't publish their own casualty counts.

EDIT: Of course, neither side is counting people like Wagner Group members in these totals.

William Cooper11 said:If the price for my freezing this winter is keeping the Russians warm with HIMARS, then fine. I'll take that deal.

+

Shut up and take my money (and some gas)

Watching videos of those Russian supply depots getting toasted will keep me plenty warm enough.

That reckless NATO is simply pushing them toward aggression.

gentlestag15 said:View on twitter
A plane just went down near Kahova—looks like a burning wreck. Word on the street is it was a Russian Su-35.

I haven't seen anyone questioning if it was actually a Russian aircraft. It was flying way too deep inside their airspace to be anything else.

They initially reported it was a drone, but it’s hard to explain why someone would be parachuting out of a drone.

The Ukrainians are claiming credit, but this looks like another case of friendly fire.

Sadly, the pilot ended up landing on the Russian side.

gentlestag15 said:The American humanitarian Paul Urey passed away today while in Russian captivity.
Even though he was just out there doing humanitarian work, they still locked him up.
Honestly, I just hope he didn't die from being beaten.
https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/...89726543130630

Word is he had diabetes, and naturally, they wouldn't give him any insulin.

Some interesting public opinion polling coming out of Germany

https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status...42955116892160

Richard Wilson4 said:Everyone’s acting like this exchange rate is gonna stay stuck like this forever...

That exchange rate isn't even real.

darkdriver said:Don't be so modest
At least to Irkutsk, maybe.

And even there, he still wouldn't get anything done.

dustytiger8 said:And who exactly is supposed to be buying this? Who even has the credibility to make such claims?

Is Ukraine under the US nuclear umbrella? On what basis?

Stop bringing up Putin and nuclear retaliation every five minutes without any actual context.

In an asymmetric nuclear standoff, Putin holds the upper hand. That is why US aid to Ukraine is being dripped out in increments rather than being unconditional. It is also likely why you see so much involvement from the Englishman; Americans clearly prefer to stay hands-off when possible.

Interesting situation.

It’s not "for no reason" when his finger is practically hovering over the button.

Ever since the red line was just sending weapons to Ukraine, then tanks to Ukraine, then jets to Ukraine, then missile systems to Ukraine, and now it's ATACMS. Wow, we're just so terrifying.

Can we please stop acting shocked every time nuclear threats come up? Like, what's he actually going to do? If they even made it to Rostov, he’d probably claim they retreated out of the goodness of his heart.

dustyowl29 said:I’m honestly a little nervous about us switching over to the euro. People were originally talking about a rate of $2.50 per 1€, but now all the politicians are claiming the conversion will just happen at "whatever the prevailing market rate happens to be" by January 1st, 2023.

There isn't really anything to worry about here. The official rate of 7.53 was confirmed today, so I'm not sure what the politicians are even talking about. Maybe Kolakušić is the only one.

Jose Clark2 said:We still don't really know why those retreats happened.

Think of it as a gesture of good faith.

Now the ball is in Ukraine's and the West's court to keep them comfortable.

Jose Clark2 said:It's obvious they won't pull out of Ukraine completely. Russ simply cannot afford to lose this war; they need concessions. If we don't give them what they want, what happens then?

Of course they shouldn't get any concessions, and they absolutely should lose this war—honestly, I hope they do.

And you know how they'd play it: they'd just claim they withdrew out of "goodwill," just like they did near Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Snake Island.

brightheron64 said:I'd really appreciate it if you could walk me through the math or just clarify the equation you're using to arrive at a result like that. 😉

I would separate Crimea and the Donbas here, though the outcome for the Donbas would likely follow the pattern seen in similar conflicts.

One day, they'll just claim they've done their part and tell the people in those regions to figure out their own way and strive to become wealthy, prosperous neighboring nations.

The rest should be pretty obvious. ☕

Tucker isn't really intended for a demanding audience

placidtiger142 said:Just got back from a homeowners association meeting over here in Germany. Some guy was saying natural gas prices jumped from maybe 1.8 cents or 1.08 cents up to almost 10 cents per kWh or whatever the hell they measure it by
.
Man, we are getting absolutely screwed this winter. It’s not even just about heating; we might not even have hot water because they’ll be cutting it off—maybe leaving us with two hours a day or some nonsense. And the extra bills? They're gonna be astronomical.

This doesn't look good at all. We don't even realize what's coming for us.

The idea that there will actually be enough gas and everything else is a total pipe dream. Honestly, props to anyone heating their place with wood. Everyone else is just asking for a massive beating.

Over in Swabia, they’re already starting to drop hints, but of course, they won't tell us the real truth or show the actual projections right now. They don't want to trigger a panic or total chaos, so they're just going to drip-feed the bad news bit by bit.

I'm certain as hell that fuel prices are going to hit at least $10 by the end of the year, if there's even any left to buy.

I wish I could be an optimist, but honestly, being optimistic right now is probably the worst thing you can do.

We need to seriously gear up for the worst. That way, if things don't work out, we aren't totally crushed, and if they do, at least we can survive the winter a little easier.

Being convinced that everything will be fine and that nothing will run out is incredibly dangerous in times like these...

The sooner Putin is defeated, the sooner things will improve.

Let's hope our neighbors realize that sooner rather than later.

Paul Flores13 said:There are rumors circulating about upcoming referendums in Detroit, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans regarding their annexation by Russia. If those go through, I suspect the Russians will feel quite comfortable declaring a total victory. I find it somewhat curious, though, that the Zaporizhzhia Oblast hasn't been included in those plans yet.

In that case, you might as well just pack up and head home. No amount of bombs or ballistic missiles can match a victory declared through a referendum with 212% voter turnout.

Just complete nonsense.

Kate Cook27 said:So, what was Ukraine supposed to do?

The only thing Ukraine could have actually done was follow Belarus's lead and eventually become just another part of the Russian Federation.

Neutrality, demilitarization, or any of those Minsk agreements wouldn't have helped them in the long run.

It’s obvious they aren't looking for a deal on Donbas or Crimea; they want all of Ukraine, every single inch of it.

rowdyraven112 said:Interesting. Turkey blocked a Russian ship carrying grain because it’s hauling exactly 7 tons of Ukrainian wheat ☕
I was looking at our farmers' yields... we're talking 5-6 tons per acre minimum. So, the Turks probably stopped that ship on orders from the West just over one single acre of Ukrainian grain (or so the Ukrainians claim). ☕

We can worry about whether people will starve in the areas where that grain was headed later. Besides, people in Africa and the Middle East aren't exactly top of mind right now—they're basically branded as terrorists from birth anyway, so Biden supporters don't care. Nobody's going to scream if they die. ☕

Have you considered that those "born terrorists" might actually face much less hunger if some barbaric Eastern tribe allowed the export of grain they actually own, instead of just what they stole?

Listen, I've thought about it. 😵

Germany might be leading the charge for the breadbasket school of thought, but a huge chunk of Europe—and honestly, much of the world—is probably wondering who's actually pulling the strings, and I don't mean in some ideological way, just purely from a geopolitical standpoint.

Back in 2014, Russia straight up seized and annexed part of another sovereign nation, yet we were busy handing them Olympic Games and World Cups. Putin’s visits were treated like major prestige events, all while our energy dependence grew completely unnecessarily.

I suppose the same goes for what happened in Georgia back in 2008, though nobody really gave a damn about that at the time.

On top of that, you're getting bombarded daily by bots and useful idiots pushing nonsense about biolabs and how wearing masks kills people, and you're just sitting there doing absolutely nothing.

We basically earned every extra cent we're paying at the gas pump.

We got ourselves hooked on the good stuff, and getting clean isn't easy.

https://twitter.com/EmbassyofRussia/...59938949275651

These Russians are seriously cringey when it comes to their PR.