dustyowl29 said:There are just zeros there—which basically means nobody is buying or selling rubles, much like the Danish crown right now...
Listen, John, I have to wonder why you're under the impression that there isn't any more trading involving the ruble over in Mexico. To be fair, some activity does exist in certain spots, but you really need to take a hard look at the spread between the bid and ask prices. To put it in more practical terms, it’s a bit like someone claiming the average exchange rate is 1 euro = $2.50, yet when you actually go to swap your dollars for euros, you aren't getting that mid-market rate; instead, you're stuck paying something closer to $3.75 per euro.
They might have been able to artificially pump the value for a little while, but that kind of thing eventually goes south. Honestly, if we don't see 1 USD = 100 ruble within the next three months, I will be genuinely shocked.
If you really want to grasp the difference between the nominal exchange rate of the ruble and its actual market value, there is no better way than simply observing how things work in the real world. Just track down a local currency exchange kiosk that deals in rubles and take a close look at their daily board. For instance, if you were to check out the rates over in a neighboring area:
Simply look at what they are charging to buy rubles, and you will see the truth right there in front of you. Honestly, Noah Diaz and his crowd can keep telling themselves whatever they want about how strong the ruble is, but the numbers don't lie.
feralhawk45 said:Are Russians heading to Mexico (or Turkey) carrying rubles, or are they using dollars (or Euros)?
My gut feeling is that they’re using Dollars, especially since the Euro doesn't carry quite as much weight in those specific regions. That said, I actually stumbled upon a bank in Mexico that officially lists Ruble-to-local currency exchanges on their site—though, of course, whether that actually works smoothly in practice is a whole different story.
There is, however, a massive catch here: the spread between the buying and selling rates is absolutely staggering. The markup on the Ruble is nearly 50% higher than the buying rate, whereas for almost any other currency—even those from some pretty remote corners of the world—the difference is usually a much more reasonable 4%.
Melissa Rivera5 said:Well, because that usually only happens on paper, you know? In the real world... I guess it's just not how it works. Like, even if that's the official rate, a bank isn't actually gonna hand over a dollar for just 70 rubles.
You hit the nail on the head. It used to be a bit more flexible, but even then, there were strict caps in place; once you hit a certain threshold, you could still access your funds, but any amount exceeding that limit had to be withdrawn exclusively in rubles. That created a massive headache, especially for corporations. Even if you were determined to keep doing business with that specific country, you were constantly hitting those ceilings on how much you could withdraw or wire out. And let me tell you, international business partners weren't exactly jumping at the chance to receive their payments in rubles.
Even in places like Mexico, from what I’ve seen, you can't easily swap rubles for dollars or local currency, despite the fact that they haven't imposed sanctions. At least with the currency exchanges I’ve looked into, they might list a mid-market rate based on the Mexican central bank, but they won't provide actual buy or sell rates for you.
feralhawk45 said:Does anyone know what the street rate is for swapping dollars (euros) for rubles in Washington, D.C.?
The word on the street is that the street value is sitting at about 200 rubles per dollar, which would mean it's actually triple the official exchange rate.
It is also quite fascinating to watch money transfer platforms like Nomad and its competitors, where you can exclusively send dollars and receive either dollars or rubles. However, I don't see any option anywhere to send rubles and receive dollars, and I honestly think that specific transaction would serve as a much more telling indicator of the true economic situation.
Vladimir Putin might want to start praying for some cooler weather and an end to those lockdowns over in China, because honestly, even the most hardcore optimists couldn't have predicted such a massive downturn in such a short window of time. But the real question is how much of a difference that would actually make. Back in mid-to-late August, when things were peaking, gas was sitting around 340, and today we're looking at 65—that's a drop of more than five times the previous price. To be perfectly honest, I’d be shocked if it stayed this low for long; if I were placing a bet, I’d wager we see it slide down to 55 within the next two or three weeks.
Regarding oil, from what I understand about the current landscape, the Russians are footing the bill for deliveries to Asians, which is already taking a massive bite out of their margins. Heaven forbid this war drags on for another three or four years, but it’s truly difficult to fathom what the Russian economy would even look like by then. Even if the conflict were to wrap up tomorrow, they are facing a very grim outlook if those sanctions remain in place.
Sanctions actually work. Back in 2013, their GDP per capita was sitting around $16,000, but by 2016—just two years after the sanctions kicked in—that number had plummeted to about $8,000.
They managed to see a bit of growth after that, sure, but they have never once managed to claw their way back to those pre-sanction levels.
These sanctions are going to cripple them over the next few years. Even right now, in Russia, you find yourself praying to God that your car doesn't break down because spare parts are practically non-existent. Of course, I’m not talking about some ancient Chevrolets here; I mean your standard European models. And that is just one single example out of millions of similar issues.
It’s not like Belgians could just keep selling them chocolate, or Italians selling boots, or us shipping them mandarins... it simply doesn't work that way anymore. It would be like trying to conduct business with Nazi Germany in 1939. Until everything is returned to its rightful place, these sanctions need to stay firmly in place, even if some sort of truce is called... For the West, this really comes down to a question of being or not being. I don't mean the survival of a nation, but rather the survival of our political legacy and our ability to prevent future wars.
Anthony Hill5 said:Actually, they can, because those same people are largely being sent to Ukraine to serve as nothing more than cannon fodder.
No matter how miserable their domestic situation is, lacking water and sanitation at home is still arguably preferable to being stuck in a muddy trench in Ukraine without any of those basic necessities.
I honestly can't say for certain. It's possible, but I have my doubts. Even though it feels like time is on Russia's side right now, I truly believe time is actually working in favor of the West. Look at the situation in Russia today—it's absolute chaos when a specific part breaks on a Western car (and let's be clear, there are way more of them out there than your average Lada), so I can only imagine what the landscape will look like in three years. We'll be back to horse and buggy.
That said, my heart goes out to Ukraine; I really wouldn't want them to have to endure another three or four years of this. That's why I'm convinced we should be completely sealing the borders with Russia right now. Those 100,000 people who fled to avoid mobilization represent 100,000 fewer men who could potentially cause trouble on the streets of Moscow. Unfortunately, there are plenty of cowards among them who still support the aggression, using the excuse of "oh, I have two kids to look after, so it's not convenient for me," when in reality, if they weren't so terrified, they'd be out there immediately...
When it comes to this economic warfare, there isn't even a question about who comes out on top if we just hold the line long enough. The West will prevail, hands down. After all, you can't exactly eat natural gas.
Now, aside from raw natural resources, the one thing currently tilting the scales in Russia's favor—and something Kotromanović hit the nail on the head regarding—is the reality that tens of millions of Russians are living without basic access to running water or indoor plumbing. It is incredibly difficult to tank the standard of living for a population that is already struggling with such fundamental necessities.
Just a few days ago, he was acting like everything was fine and dandy. The "Ukropi" supposedly lost at least 20k soldiers during the Kharkiv offensive, and now suddenly this Russian counteroffensive is being prepped? Give me a break. 🤣
Honestly, he's easily one of the top 10 idiots following this war. 🤦
The guy is completely delusional. Honestly, from what I can tell, he spends half his time acting like he's out on sick leave with bronchitis or something. Regardless, I watched his video right after the Kharkiv offensive wrapped up, and frankly, he should have just shut down his channel then and there. It's honestly embarrassing.
Honestly, I can’t even begin to wrap my head around the sheer level of Russian stupidity. From the very beginning, it was painfully obvious that their entire strategy was a total disaster. They didn't have nearly enough troops, and they fell for this delusional fantasy that the local population would be rolling out on red carpets to welcome them. But let's just set that aside for a moment.
Now we’re seeing this massive mobilization of absolute nobodies across Russia. And the big question is, what are they actually going to equip them with? What kind of morale can you possibly expect from people like that? Not to mention the immense pressure this puts on the government when soldiers start coming back home in body bags by the thousands. But again, let's put that to one side.
Even if we entertain the idea that this is some sort of brilliant tactical maneuver—that it might somehow tip the scales in Russia's favor, though I am firmly convinced it won't because they lost this war a long time ago—let's look at the hypothetical. Suppose they "win" through sheer, bloody attrition, annex all those newly formed territories, and the Ukrainians are forced to sign a ceasefire. Even in that insane scenario, Russia still loses. The sanctions aren't going anywhere, they've lost tens of thousands of lives, and they're left with tens of thousands of disabled citizens. What does the future even look like for a country like that once the weight of those sanctions starts truly crushing them? Right now, they're struggling to manufacture a basic damn car; imagine where they'll be in two years. Europe isn't going to forget this, and Ukraine certainly won't. They'll be living under the constant threat of unrest from a deeply dissatisfied population.
The simple truth is that even if they were to win—which, again, I don't believe they will—they are already finished.
P.s. Just take a look at the registration data for Russian vehicles here and across Western Europe. Every so often, I'll spot a registration that is clearly Russian, even though someone has tried to hide it by peeling off the flag from the plate; you can still recognize them instantly just by the specific font used for the letters and numbers.
Carol Johnson21 said:I suspect that wasn't even their main motivation. Adding ten thousand motivated criminals to the mix is the ultimate force multiplier. We're looking at a wave of classic street crimes that will terrorize the local population. Where else could the Russians find such a motivated force? They're essentially offering these guys an escape route; if they called for a general mobilization, they'd just face a mass exodus.
These criminals represent the absolute peak of current Russian capabilities.
They promise plenty of ammo—supposedly better than what was provided in Afghanistan or Chechnya. Meanwhile, on Taiwan, there's a video circulating of a Russian soldier talking to his wife. He tells her he's wounded but isn't allowed to leave his post because there are no hospital beds available. Her response? She tells him they've been abandoned just like they were in Afghanistan and Chechnya.
Speaking of videos of Russian soldiers, there's one where a low-ranking guy explains to his superior how unfair it is that the officers got to bring three seized cars back to Russia, while they're stuck driving some old Hyundai 😁 . It’s also quite telling how he complains about not having had a single day off in seven months because there is absolutely no rotation of troops.
I really have to correct my colleague here—those were actually LNR soldiers, and they were driving a Daewoo Lanos 🙂
As for the video, I might have misread the context regarding Afghanistan and Chechnya, but it sounded to me like he was saying things wouldn't be as easy as they were back then.
And here's another interesting point: some people were claiming they wouldn't recruit criminals charged with the most heinous crimes, yet in the video, Pirozhgin mentions someone on the front lines who was serving a thirty-year sentence. So, clearly, we aren't just talking about petty thieves stealing wallets on a subway car...
Jessica Peterson2 As specified by Kate Cook27: You’re mistaken. The anthem actually belonged to the UPA. Зродились ми великої години Born in those great years...
Is there anything more poignant than realizing that Red Kalina serves as nothing more than a boundary line? It really makes you wonder if we ever truly understand where one thing ends and another begins, doesn't it?
Maybe it doesn’t quite warrant a prison sentence, but let’s be honest—it is a blatant provocation, isn't it? Especially given the current climate, and particularly with everything unfolding in Crimea right now.
Yes, my colleague Jessica Peterson2 is absolutely right; I completely mixed up those songs. Red Kalina isn't the anthem of the UPA. For them, it serves more as a soulful patriotic song, much like how we view "My Country" back home.
Jessica Peterson2 said:Latest reports coming out of occupied Crimea: apparently, playing Ukrainian music at a wedding is now a punishable offense. A restaurant owner, his wife, the DJ, and even the bride's family were all slapped with administrative detention ranging from five to fifteen days, not to mention some hefty fines. 🤦
The song "Red Kalina"—if my memory serves me right—was actually used as an anthem by the UPA during World War II.
It reminds me of that other incident in Crimea where a DJ was detained just because a guest asked him to play a track by Yarmak—specifically "Dyke pole."
Whether you actually speak Russian or just want to take a quick peek at the chaos, this is definitely worth watching. Honestly, I can't even decide which part to highlight first. There’s that one gem where someone swipes a bunch of fridge magnets, or perhaps the moment on Russian TV when a woman tries to close a refrigerator that clearly has "2 years" printed on it in huge Ukrainian letters for the warranty. There is just so much madness to unpack here, I don't even know where to begin.
That video from a Moscow studio that someone shared a few pages back actually contains one specific fragment I can genuinely get behind. Essentially, this guy says something along the lines of: "Back in February, we had an expert claiming our forces would be in serious trouble if they ever set foot in New York City, mostly because the locals would overwhelm them with so much affection and hugs that they'd practically die from the embrace. Well, we’ve just seen that New Yorkers have absolutely zero interest in welcoming those troops." And that analyst—who didn't just get it wrong, but provided an analysis that was nothing short of criminally delusional—is back on television again yesterday
It’s the exact same kind of nonsense we see here with Vidmarović
Timothy Nelson5 said:Well, Ukraine actually was a failed state back then; Crimea fell almost without a fight...
And I suppose one should keep in mind that at the very start of the invasion in February, things could have gone quite differently. If Ukrainian special forces hadn't managed to break that Russian landing at the Kyiv airport, or if the ruling administration in Ukraine had decided to flee the country... who knows how this whole story would have played out.
That one decisive historical statement from Zelenskyy: "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition!" echoed everywhere; it rallied Ukrainians toward an uncompromising resistance. It also shamed a lot of world leaders, many of whom were seemingly ready to just shrug their shoulders at the Russian invasion. After that statement, I guess hardly any Western politician escaped hearing their own voters ask: 'What are you waiting for? Send weapons to those brave Ukrainians!'
Quincy:
that Kremlin hack and his lackeys are still stuck in 2014, when they easily snatched Crimea from an unorganized and confused Ukraine, and then turned them into punchlines in the Donbas, constantly ridiculing them for failing to defeat a handful of miners. Because of that, they convinced themselves that Ukraine would just fall apart. Apparently, they slept through some significant changes that happened within Ukraine itself, and in the world at large.
A lot of people seem to love forgetting that the real shifts in Ukraine started during President Trump's term. During his mandate, Ukraine began receiving Javelins and other sophisticated military hardware, and the training for Ukrainian officers finally kicked off...
That isn't really the point, though. The issue is that several users on this forum spent a long time outright denying the presence of the Russians and their active support for the Donbas insurgents (by the way, the Ukrainians refer to them as "ladybugs" because of that green Saint George ribbon that reminds them of a ladybug, which they call a *kolodarskiy zhuk* in Ukrainian). Furthermore, every single event was interpreted strictly through a Russian lens, without even a shred of objectivity. Honestly, I still remember the discussions regarding the events in Odessa back on May 2, 2014.
steelheron25 said:Heh, who thought so? Pretty much everyone did, or at least the vast majority.
Had you even revisited the topics of Russia and Ukraine before February 24th? If you go back and leaf through those old threads—better yet, look at what was being said in 2014 and the years following—you'll see a prevailing trend of mocking Ukraine and its military capabilities, especially during those battles for the Donetsk airport and the months that followed. There was this general consensus that Ukraine was essentially a failed state; that narrative was actually spearheaded by a certain moderator we have here today, and anyone who wandered into those discussions would find that people were suggesting the Ukrainians would be better off committing collective suicide given how pathetic they supposedly were. Then, if you jump forward to the posts from the first few days of the invasion, you'll see people leaving comments predicting that nothing more than a local National Guard unit could put up any real resistance. Even that same moderator felt the need to rush and change the thread title because the Russians had already pushed into Kharkiv.
That fart from the Kremlin and his sycophants are still mentally stuck in 2014, back when they easily seized Crimea from an unorganized and confused Ukraine, only to turn them into punchlines in the Donbas, constantly ridiculing them as if they couldn't handle a small group of miners. That's exactly why they convinced themselves that Ukraine would simply collapse. Clearly, they slept right through the massive shifts happening within Ukraine itself, and indeed, within the world at large.
I remember those days too, when a certain moderator and a forum member who isn't active on this thread anymore (ruka_slave) were constantly making fun of the Ukrainian military and interpreting events through a heavily biased lens—everything from the events in Odessa on May 2nd and so on. But hey, only a fool refuses to ever change their mind.
Russian Lieutenant Colonel captured without his trousers
Honestly, networks like CNN and MSNBC really ought to invite Smith and Johnson back onto their shows. And once they finally do get them on air, they should feel free to ask them straight up what kind of arrogant jerks they actually are, and how they even have the audacity to show their faces again just to peddle more of their baseless predictions.
P.S. Does anyone happen to know the total mileage covered since the 1.9 mark? I mean, combining the South and the East. Everything I read focuses on how much ground was gained in a single day, or over the last three days, and so on...