Posts by Carl Sanders5

slyfox43 said:What on earth kind of cargo ships are we even talking about here?

Great old Lavrov and his cargo ships.
Unless he's straight-up lying, which doesn't even make sense—what would he even gain from lying about this? 🤷
Btw, it's pretty hilarious how he starts the video by throwing international treaties in our faces. 🤣

Andrew Miller102 said:The truth is, the Germans are just looking out for themselves and letting whatever happens happen afterward, plus they have absolutely no intention of fighting unless they're hit directly. If things escalate and the supply of Russian gas gets cut off, German industry is going to be left completely stranded.

What exactly is he expecting here—that the French or Americans will just jump straight into a war? The city is essentially surrounded on all sides, and we should all remember what happened in El Paso.☕

It looks like shipments just can't move at the same speed they used to because Putin threatened to make those deliveries legitimate targets.
Up until now, weapons were coming in on cargo ships, but that's not exactly a walk in the park anymore.
They’re probably scrambling to find new routes and methods, which is why everything is lagging behind. 🤷

George Davis6 said:It won't happen, trust me on this one! I honestly don't see any legal basis for anyone to just seize, grab, and sell off private property...

They can demand proof of where that money actually came from.

If they can't prove the cash was earned legally? Then bye-bye!

bluemason3 said:Taking everything else into account, we should also mention that the ruling elite in the USSR didn't invest in a Western lifestyle or Western financial markets. Today, however, via the Oligarch, they keep much of their wealth in the West and are accustomed to a "capitalist" standard of living.

This means that beyond the state and military being drained, the leadership itself will feel the sting personally. And frankly, they couldn't care less about the general population.

I'm not going to sit here and reply to every single one of you individually:
Technology? I don't want to sound like an idiot, but look at what Vedriti, the law professor, has to say:

He agrees that Russia is a tough machine, both politically and economically. They've got the energy and the food, but they're hooked on modern tech.
They'll figure something out through China and other allies, even if things move slower. They aren't just going to pop like a balloon...

The Oligarchs? Davor Štern says:

Putin comes from service circles that know exactly how to handle these kinds of situations; I believe he has the tools to keep them in line.

etc.

I don't know what to tell you guys. It’s pretty obvious if you actually bother to look at the data. Are we really going to sit here and pretend everything is fine? Please. It's a joke. kaže:
Russians are fleeing their own country on the only public transit line left connecting them to the European Union. Apparently, people are freaking out!

Look, like I said before, they aren't going to stick around and complain. They’re just gonna run. And the ones who actually stay? They'll be dead silent.
Why would anyone bother risking prison time or taking a bullet? It’s a losing game. Even if they manage to topple Vladimir Putin and get those sanctions lifted, Russia is still going to be in massive trouble. What if they never actually bounce back to how things used to be? By then, the European Union will have already pivoted to other energy suppliers. That’s a total certainty. Everyone finally woke up and realized just how much they were leaning on Russia. They're sober now, and they aren't looking back.

Gary Wilson said:The Ruble took another hit today. We started the morning at 110 rubles per dollar, but we’re already looking at roughly 122.
A freefall, really.
Back on March 2nd, the Federal Reserve attempted a major intervention to stabilize the rate—likely by burning through dollar reserves—which briefly pushed the rate below 100. That attempt failed miserably, and if you look at the chart, those reserves just went up in smoke.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?f...to=RUB&view=1W

As time ticks on, we should prepare for shortages of imported goods and significant price hikes.
Consumer goods make up about 14.5% of imports, followed by machinery and vehicles at roughly 45%, and chemicals at 19%.

All this instability actually highlights just how powerless the Russian economy truly is. Between the mounting costs of the war and the weight of these sanctions—especially if they persist for another six months or a year—we're looking at a devastating impact from which Russia won't recover easily.

Their only real way out is to go all-in and wrap this up as quickly as possible, but based on current trends, that isn't happening.

Since gas and oil are still flowing relatively steadily into Germany and the European Union, if the EU manages to build up sufficient stockpiles, they could potentially cut off those energy purchases during a critical moment—effectively delivering the final blow to Vladimir Putin's regime.

We have to remember—it's only day eight of the offensive. We have months, maybe even years, ahead of us. If this conflict drags on, even if Russia technically "wins," they'll end up as an economic dwarf facing massive internal strife and a deeply impoverished population.

That’s exactly my point. You have no idea how much a middle-class Russian actually gives a damn about toppling Vladimir Putin. Does it even matter? Whether he stays in power or gets kicked out, they’re still looking at poverty. Honestly, most of them would rather just pack their bags and move somewhere else anyway.

You guys are being way too optimistic about these sanctions, honestly. I’m not seeing it. Russians are used to this stuff; it's practically part of their routine. How long did the Cold War even last? Over 30 years, right? And they still functioned just fine.

There are over 30 million people living out in Siberia. Every single year, they deal with summer water shortages and three-month stretches of winter gas rationing when it hits -40. They know exactly what poverty feels like.

As for the middle class—whose quality of life is about to tank—they’re just going to bail. We're already hearing reports that trains heading from Russia toward Norway are packed to capacity.

Sure, the economy will take a massive hit in the long run, but IMO? Don't hold your breath for some big political breakthrough. It's a long shot.