Posts by Dennis Price

Andrew Miller102 said:You can bet there's going to be a massive upside to this, if you ask me.

Given that Palladium is already trading higher than gold, we could very easily see Palladium jumping to two or three times the price of gold in short order.

The entire semiconductor industry is absolutely scrambling right now, so all you really have to do is sit back and watch the prices for consumer electronics—say, things like iPhone accessories—skyrocket. The real issue is that there simply isn't enough raw material available, whether we're talking about Palladium or any other essential chemical elements required for standard manufacturing processes.☕

Great. So even more pressure on Russia to just get out of Ukraine☕

wiredseal7 said:Which "regimes" have we actually seen sanctions topple so far? Hardly this one—especially since they're just leaning harder into totalitarianism now. Sanctions mostly just push them further into a corner. They aren't exactly feeling any pressure from the West to stop the repression.

And if we're being honest, those planes weren't stolen—they were sanctioned. 🙂
I don't get why people are whining about the planes when "we" essentially seized hundreds of billions in assets—not just state property, but private holdings belonging to Russian citizens, even folks in the EU or Israel. In some cases, it even touches their grown children's interests.
I doubt they'd be foolish enough to hand back the planes after getting hit that hard.

Why look at this like both sides are playing on a level field when they aren't? The West gets whatever it wants from Russia. It's the West that imposes the sanctions, not the other way around. That’s why you never hear Russians threatening to cut off oil or gas exports—they know it would be suicide for them.

Daniel Barnes53 said:The Associated Press is reporting that US President Joe Biden has signed a law allowing US Airlines to keep foreign aircraft for use on domestic flights.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/rus...U0aMqdgs7HDTKb

I think they're talking about seizing foreign planes—apparently, there are maybe 500 of them sitting in the US right now.

I'd love to see the trolls explain how they think Americans will just wiggle out of these obligations. 😵 Global aircraft delivery backlogs are massive right now—Russia is basically a tiny market that can be ignored in the global civil aviation scene without much trouble.

urbanotter said:I honestly find it hard to believe that Bulgaria would actually shut down the pipeline. Besides, looking at the scale of things, Mexico isn't such a massive consumer that anyone would go to extreme lengths over them.

Even if they do end up selling oil at a discount, it’s still going to be more profitable than waiting for everything to settle back to the status quo. It's simple supply and demand: the higher the global congestion and the greater the hunger for oil and gas, the higher the prices climb, which means you get more even with a smaller margin.
I do agree with the point about them trading in yuan to purchase Chinese goods; that seems to be one of their primary objectives. If that happens, the Federal Reserve could print money all they want, but it won't have the same impact it used to. All it will really do is drive inflation much higher than the current 8% we're seeing.

Demand for Russian oil is actually dropping. 😅 They're going to have to cut prices just to move it.
What you're saying might apply elsewhere, but it's not quite right here. Oil isn't expensive just because Russia wants it to be. If anything, they'd drop the price in a heartbeat if it meant keeping the West interested. Prices are high because a huge chunk of buyers are intentionally looking elsewhere.

hiddeneagle98 said:Look, there isn't even much sense in them trying this move.

But what they did by banning Russians from selling rubles back home? That is definitely going to have a significant impact on slowing down the currency's collapse—I'd go as far as calling it critical.

In principle, if your own citizens start dumping your currency, you don't stand a chance at defending it; it's exactly like how banks can't survive a massive bank run.

Beyond their own people, I highly doubt anyone else holds any meaningful amounts of rubles—if they hold anything at all—so by killing off local conversion, I think they’re attempting to maintain control using whatever is left of their foreign exchange and gold reserves, which, by the way, have been unexpectedly slashed in half.

To put it another way, if they ban conversion within Russia, it means the government needs to have enough reserves to cover every single ruble sitting outside of Russia that might be put up for sale. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they either don't have enough, or thought they did until they realized half their reserves and gold were frozen solid. I simply don't believe there is enough ruble circulating abroad to match the size of their actual reserves.

Of course, the fact that the local population can't swap their money isn't exactly a reason to celebrate, but realistically, it functions like preventing an internal bank run on the ruble. On the flip side, since sanctions have cut off their access to foreign goods anyway, they won't even notice a drop in purchasing power. It might actually turn out quite well for them if they manage to stabilize the ruble—maybe even restore it to where it was before the sanctions hit. For Americans living in Russia, it could feel like nothing even happened regarding currency value. Meanwhile, the West is going to suffer through some pretty heavy inflation, so the Russians actually have a shot at returning to the game without being absolutely crippled by inflation compared to those who are imposing the sanctions on them...

Not quite. Store prices haven't adjusted for the ruble's drop yet. If people are smart, they'll start buying stuff that holds its value. It's a classic prisoner's dilemma.

Larry Fox5 said:Price hikes were already happening before this war even started—partly because of the corona mess and partly because shipping routes got wrecked, leaving freight companies struggling to move stuff. Throw in the skyrocketing fuel costs, and you see why everything is getting more expensive.
Just look at what happened to steel, aluminum, or basically any construction material over the last 18 months and you'll get it. Wood prices went through the roof!

And now, on top of all that, you've got a war and major exporters being blocked from sending raw materials. It's just a massive accelerator for inflation—you can see it clearly with Nickel. I'm convinced we're heading into a recession regardless of whether the war ends tomorrow or everything just resets to some weird new "normal."

If Germany runs out of oil, then you should start worrying about Russia and the Third World instead. Seriously, the oil in Germany will vanish.😵 COVID actually helped settle the fears caused by this kind of propaganda, if nothing else.