Posts by gentleviper62

Roger Cooper91 said:I’ve been looking at the comments coming out of the local news circles and even here lately, and I’m honestly fascinated. You see people saying, "Oh, Russia is just going to annex the occupied territories." Okay, and? Does that mean the war—pardon me, the special military operation—is suddenly over?

For an annexation to actually happen, one side has to decisively defeat the other and seize or liberate those territories. But let’s be real: this conflict isn't even close to being finished. If anything, things might just escalate further. What on earth is going through people's heads?

We will likely see a shift toward a wartime economy soon, with much higher defense spending across the board.

Andrew Booth29 said:Putin simply cannot afford to lose Donbas or southern Ukraine. Given all the rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin lately, the whole situation feels eerily similar to how things looked during the Gulf War—back when everyone knew a massive shift was coming, yet nobody could sign a peace deal because they had already backed themselves into a corner by overpromising to their people. It’s unsettling. I honestly worry this is headed toward a major escalation. How is he supposed to just back down when he’s spent all this time claiming there are Nazis in Ukraine who hate everything Russian? 🤷

Right now, his entire strategy seems to hinge on mobilization, praying for a frozen conflict, and eventually dragging everyone into some sort of negotiation designed to just lock the current stalemate in place—essentially stretching this out indefinitely. And frankly, I'm concerned that even the nuclear option isn't off the table for him. When Medvedev starts talking, he's usually just saying exactly what Putin is thinking.

The Russians can't let go of Crimea since they've officially declared it part of the Russian Federation, and that's where they might resort to nuclear weapons. As for the Donbas, I suspect Donetsk, Luhansk, and Mariupol are their true red lines. In other words, they won't allow the land connection to Crimea to be severed. That explains why they are rushing to annex those areas to Russia.

Everyone is fleeing Russia, yet according to the latest projections, their GDP is only dipping by 2%.

George Robinson43 said:Where did this idea that sanctions are causing a downturn come from? Wasn't it stated a hundred times that sanctions don't actually impact Russia??
Even the proven economic expert Joe Biden has reiterated that point on numerous occasions.

And by the way, Russia doesn't depend on mere resources; they have those in spades. Rather, they rely on the technology they have to import—technology for which they simply cannot find any substitutes.

Look at Iran. They've been under constant sanctions, yet their GDP per capita hit $20,000 in 2022. It’s pretty clear that technology can still be imported. Plus, countries sitting on massive natural resources will always remain attractive players on the global stage.

Adam Lee13 said:Russia's GDP took a massive 4% hit in Q2 2022

That’s really nothing. It’s like looking at a minor hiccup compared to the massive hit they took back during the 2009 recession. They didn't fall apart then, so why would this be different?

Christian Torres3 said:The Vietnam War in data: $9 billion in U.S. military aid; more than $50 billion overall
https://www.grid.news/story/global/2...llion-overall/

The Russian military budget is around 65 billion. All the Russian army has is numbers and mediocre quality.

Who could actually manufacture equipment worth that much on such a short timeline?

It didn't actually drop by 6%; it was a 4% dip in the second quarter. If you look at the first quarter, there was 3.5% growth, which basically means they're hovering right around zero for the first half of the year. We'll have to see how things play out, but there's no way they're sliding below 10% annually like the forecasts suggested.

Russian GDP saw a dip of just 4% during the second quarter.

What does it actually mean when we say sanctions are working? Will the standard of living in Russia plummet? Absolutely. But will they pull back from the war or see their country fall apart? Not a chance.

silentnomad7 said:Russia is supposed to be China's partner, yet they turn around and sell missiles to India, who might just use them against China!

Geopolitics is such a strange, tangled web, isn't it? 😁

It's all just business.

Why on earth would China attack Russia? They’d be throwing away the only real ally they have left. Besides, those massive oil and gas reserves aren't even sitting right on the border with China; they're tucked way up north.

Donna Wells2 said:If anyone actually understands what kind of monsters they’re dealing with, it’s them... everything from the Katyn massacre right through to 1990...
But if the Russians are supposedly so invincible, why haven't they moved on the Baltic countries?
Fear. It's pure fear. Their knees are shaking.

It's almost as if they're the only ones who have ever lived under occupation. They can be quite exhausting.

Jessica Peterson2 said:I caught something interesting on the radio today. Apparently, border agents in the Baltic states have started asking Russians crossing the border to personally sign some kind of affidavit—essentially a formal statement condemning the aggression against Ukraine.
The catch, if you can call it that, is that signing such a document could potentially land them with a five-year prison sentence once they actually make it back home to Russia.🤷

There aren't many groups with bigger complexes than those in the Baltic states and Poland.

Terry Green3 said:https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...pe-2022-07-18/

The US Department of the Treasury reports that the federal budget pulled in $114.29 billion from oil and gas sales during the first half of the year. That’s a far cry from the 9.5 trillion rubles originally projected for the full 2022 fiscal year.

How much of a gamble are they willing to take? It seems they're actually pulling in more from Gas than initially anticipated. Honestly, alongside oil revenue, that's pretty much the only thing keeping their finances afloat despite all the sanctions from the West.

On the flip side, they can hit the EU economies directly just by turning off the tap. Of course, that's a double-edged sword—they'd be shooting themselves in the foot just as much as Europe.
They already did that when the war in Ukraine kicked off.
I wouldn't be surprised at all by a reckless move like this.

Even in a worst-case scenario, Russia will always find ways to cash in on selling oil, Gas, and other natural resources. The world is massive; it isn't just about Europe. Global populations are growing, and with them, demand follows.

And just like that, the dollar stays stronger than the euro. A struggling Europe will always be held hostage by America's economy.

dustyowl29 said:The real motivation behind the Russian invasion—it’s about occupying parts of Ukraine that are loaded with natural gas and coal. They're aiming for total control over those Eurasian hydrocarbon sources, basically trying to recreate the old USSR power dynamics. At this point, all they're missing is Kazakhstan and the rest of the Caspian Sea nations...

Kazakhstan is a massive player here, given their huge reserves of oil and uranium. However, it presents a complication for the Russians because it's a Muslim nation. On top of that, Kazakhstan itself faces the struggle of being geographically isolated from the West.

silentnomad7 said:That old nostalgia for the former regime still grips at least 10% of the population here in America, especially those over 60 or 70. To them, Putin is almost like a savior who might restore the social order that was stripped away from them thirty years ago. That’s why they defend him so fiercely. You would think that by the time someone reaches their 60s, they’d have gained enough wisdom to condemn war and suffering, but that nostalgia acts like such a potent drug that it overrides everything else... So, in the end, they don't see a problem with relativizing or making excuses for war crimes, because it all feels so far away, doesn't it? It isn't happening to anyone they actually know. To them, it’s just statistics, while the memory of the old unified state is still so vivid in their minds...

These people are simply remembering when they were young. And now, after working for 40 years and finally reaching retirement, $667 it's no wonder they feel disillusioned when they see how others have thrived under the new system.

Anthony Hill5 said:Russia is staring down a projected GDP collapse of somewhere between 10% and 15% this year. Meanwhile, the European Union’s GDP is expected to maintain a growth rate slightly north of 2% over that same span.

Does any Kremlin sycophant out there actually have the mathematical capacity to explain how these sanctions supposedly inflicted more damage on the European Union than they did on Russia?

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pres.../en/IP_22_3070

https://www.reuters.com/business/rus...ws-2022-04-27/

A 10% dip isn't exactly a catastrophic collapse when you consider the scale of the sanctions being thrown at them. And honestly, if they manage to permanently neutralize the threat from Ukraine, that's a price worth paying. Think about it: they get to reset their entire system, reduce their economic reliance on the European Union, and they walk away with new territory populated by new people who speak Russian.

silentnomad7 said:Look, it’s pretty simple logic: if you don't have the cash for a $1,000 smartphone, you go for the $500 model.
If $500 is out of reach, you pick up one for $300.
And if $300 is too much, you settle for a $100 option.
But if nobody can even swing a $100 phone, then well... stores just start closing their doors.

Are you seriously asking why there aren't mass protests happening in Russia?...

Exactly. I have my own phone for $667 and honestly, what's wrong with it? It does everything a $1,500 flagship can do. People in Russia just need to shift the entire burden of this crisis onto those wasteful elites—the ultra-wealthy class.

Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, there's a massive amount of video content out there on YouTube, but honestly, I can't be bothered... because you clearly aren't interested anyway.

When someone flies in here making claims like yours... man, you can see from miles away where you're headed and what your actual goal is. Good luck to ya. 😁

(But seriously—there are endless videos of Russian supermarkets available if you want to look; just convert the prices to dollars using the current exchange rate and see how much stuff actually costs.)

It really depends on what prices we're talking about. You have basic necessities versus luxury items that nobody needs. My guess is that Russians can produce a lot of their own goods locally, or they just import from countries that haven't imposed sanctions. I'm thinking specifically about food.