Posts by Terry Green3

We don't even need to bring up nuclear weapons to cause a nuclear disaster on Ukrainian soil. A single conventional missile hitting a nuclear plant would trigger an even bigger catastrophe.

Based on what people are saying in the Russian media, they aren't buying Shoigu's claim of 300,000 mobilized troops. Looking at the scale of the calls for service, most are predicting the final number will land somewhere between 700,000 and a million.
This is a turning point. Either Russia ditches this regime, or this drags on for years.
Ukraine is entirely dependent on NATO arms deliveries and EU funding—essentially loans just to keep the state functioning. NATO and the EU can sustain this indefinitely if they choose.
Russia will either retreat into a total defensive posture in these regions using these mobilized troops—slowly losing the war over several years—or they'll try to push forward with these new forces to break Ukraine. In my estimation, if they go for the latter, they'll lose within a year. Then, we'll see a political collapse back home.

Sean Doyle8 said:It’s all a carbon copy of the 90s in America. Literally everything. It's the exact same playbook and the KGB's fingerprints are all over it.

That’s how the Mexicans in America act, too. The only difference is that Maddox was smart enough to frame it not as reuniting with Mexico, but as staying part of America—which, let's be honest, is effectively the same thing.

hiddeneagle98 said:Their logistics only really hold up within about 62 miles of their own borders.

I don't have anything to give anyone when I'm sitting here with nothing myself. Ukraine screwed up by not agreeing to military neutrality. Anyone with even two brain cells can see this is just going to end up being the equivalent of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Would the USA ever tolerate an equivalent of the Maidan happening in Mexico?

The Americans haven't placed—nor do they intend to place—nuclear arsenals in NATO countries near Russia, let alone in Ukraine. So, calling this a Cuban Missile Crisis thing doesn't fly, especially since Russia already has NATO states right on its doorstep. How can this be some massive "burning issue" in a neighboring country that wasn't even close to joining NATO?

Putin basically just wants the West to leave Ukraine at the mercy of the Russians. Anything else is just him labeling it a "Cuban Missile Crisis" scenario or claiming the West is meddling in Russian interests—interests that Russia supposedly has a "right" to protect as a superpower.

The US doesn't try to install governments in Mexico by bribing officials, and when they fail to send in troops for an annexation by pretending to be threatened—claiming, "Hey, Mexico has an army and such"—it's just nonsense.

The Americans are decent to their neighbors when it makes sense and provides an opportunity, whereas the Russians just go around raping, looting, and seizing territory. There is zero equivalence here.

I have no interest in feeding pro-Russian trolls with debate, but for those of you who insist on engaging, I'm asking you not to fuel them by spreading misinformation.

Kate Cook27 said:If that's the case—then what was the whole referendum circus even for?

Those documents are supposedly the results from the vote. Not that anyone actually doubts the population will come out at 105% in favor of joining Russia.🕺

Lisa Patel4 said:Not a chance.
Unlike Ukraine, which has always fought to maintain its own distinct identity against Russian imperialism and the Soviets, Americans in Belarus don't have that. I suppose Lukashenko knows he'd just be a puppet for Poland without the Russians.

Sure. You've got Poles fueled by crazy nationalism and enough EU violations to make Canada look reasonable—but the main takeaway is they are 100% against Russia.

As for everything else? Just a backwards, conservative nationalist mess.
If it weren't for the Russian invasion, the EU would have every right to slap them with sanctions, much like what's coming for Canada now.

placidtiger142 said:I mean, I hope they’ve got momentum. I’m convinced what we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks was just the warm-up act.

Real heavy hitters are waiting in the wings, gearing up even bigger and better, but here’s the thing—and this is a massive issue in my book—once they take that ground, from the perspective of Russia, that territory becomes Russian soil again. By the end of the month, if they reclaim it, Russia is gonna see it as an actual invasion of their own country, which is a whole different beast than what's happening right now. I'm just saying, that's how they'll see it.

It doesn't matter to us because obviously it's still Ukraine, but damn, it's not the same thing hitting Russians while they're on foreign dirt versus tomorrow when they're fighting on their own turf, you know?

I don't think it looks unlikely anymore that they'll just bail. The West might just sell out Ukraine if it means they don't have to risk themselves.

They could pull that classic move later on where they say, "Hey, we gave you the weapons, we dumped billions at you, and sure, we'll throw a little more at you for rebuilding," and then—poof—they leave them high and dry.

Now the political weight is where things get heavy. In Italy, the right wing is expected to win, and one faction in that coalition openly supports Putin. The CIA might need to step in and fix that situation, much like everything else in Italy after WW2.

Belarus issued a statement saying they'll decide on the results of the "referendums" in the breakaway regions based solely on what's best for Belarus. Is there any chance Lukashenko decides to throw Putin under the bus?

The Russians are actually admitting their own recruitment databases are a mess, full of errors and bad data.

Because of this, they’re reportedly implementing a double-check system in St. Louis before any more draft notices go out. They somehow managed to draft a 58-year-old executive and a father who was already exempt due to having too many kids.
Supposedly, they’ve all been called back and cleared.

It's interesting to see firsthand how much they're pulling people from even the most established Russian cities.

PS. I tracked down an actual mobilization decree on some official Russian sites.
https://rusvesna.su/sites/default/fi...cii_v_rf_2.jpg
That Article 7 should give Americans plenty of room to imagine what's really going on, since it isn't public knowledge.
If I remember correctly, there's speculation floating around about them mobilizing up to a million people.

According to the Russian media's playbook:

28th: The Duma submits documents to formally annex Zaporizhzhia, the DPR, the LPR, and Kherson into the Russian Federation.
29th: The Duma debates the request.
30th: A session is scheduled where Putin will make an official statement.

stormyangler32 said:When it comes to the whole nuclear situation, I really don't think we're looking at some random, sporadic exchange of fire. If—and I really mean IF—things actually kick off, everyone is going to try to absolutely cripple their opponent until they're completely neutralized. The real issue here is that the people calling the shots are probably sitting pretty in some deep, underground bunker somewhere, so the end of civilization doesn't even look like an ending to them. I mean, hasn't Putin already proven that he couldn't care less about human lives?
Honestly, I’m just praying there's some quiet diplomacy happening behind the scenes to at least set some ground rules for a potential conflict, otherwise, we are all going to have some serious fucking problems very soon.
I was reading this piece in an American newspaper the other day where they were basically just explaining how many of us are going to die, without even bothering to give citizens any actual instructions on how to potentially survive... 🙄
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/iris...eland-28045994

Only one small thing. We in Europe, North America, and Russia aren't the entire world. Those three sides would be completely wiped out.

But Africa, South America, and most of Asia would survive.
The whole world doesn't revolve around us Westerners. The Fallout would be horrific, but groups of people in remote areas would make it through.

Maybe it's finally time, after WWI and WWII, for us to just finish the job and destroy ourselves once and for all, giving the rest of the world a chance to breathe outside the grip of the Indo-European warrior culture.

So, what’s our "braggart neighbor" actually doing to prep for the vote on kicking Russia out of the UN Security Council?

Gregory Ramos3 said:He could just declare the whole special military operation mission accomplished and call an end to all the fighting. The people would spend two days celebrating their great leader, and then, playing the part of the big-hearted humanitarian, he’d hand all the occupied territory back to the Ukrainians as a massive gesture of goodwill—sort of like saying, "hey, let's stop letting outside forces divide us."☕

Hard to say. If a peace conference were held right now and long-winded negotiations began, I doubt Ukraine or NATO would settle for anything less than full territorial integrity, including Crimea. The real question is whether the Russians can actually stomach something like a "Russian Republic" nested inside Ukraine.

Kevin Murphy7 said:Kadyrov refused to send any more Muslim meat into the fight for Christianity🍿

On the flip side, he bragged about how they've exceeded recruitment quotas across all republics and provinces. According to him, there are already 20,000 Chechens fighting in Ukraine, so why bother sending more?

analogbear5 said:Dead, not just kicked out of the machine.

Fair point. How do you think this conflict ends if they take another two hits of this magnitude?

analogbear5 said:Yeah. This time, maybe only about a hundred thousand will go down.

According to both the Ukrainians and the Russians, that number has already been surpassed.

Nancy Gomez26 said:They wouldn't recognize Crimea as his, certainly not during Putin's lifetime. Maybe in 50 or 100 years, though perhaps never—it could stay frozen indefinitely, much like the situation in Cyprus. Success would depend entirely on whether the future leadership of the Russian Federation decides to play ball. Crimea became a bargaining chip for the Russian Federation, and Putin is slowly realizing the actual cost of holding it. He's been getting slapped repeatedly—not enough to end him, but enough to sting. Since the West hasn't decisively sanctioned the occupation nor truly acknowledged the reality on the ground, Putin has decided to go all-in on Ukraine. Whatever happens, happens. Besides, Putin is at an age where he wants to leave a historical legacy. He will leave one, certainly, but I doubt it will be the kind of legacy he actually envisioned.

I always enjoy reading your takes. How do you see this all playing out? Personally, I haven't got the slightest clue. I don't know if it's just Twitter propaganda, but seeing those videos of hundreds of Russians responding to mobilization was pretty disappointing.

It’s true someone pointed out that the Romanovs fell after years of war, but isn't there any other way besides losing millions more lives?
Is there even a way to unseat the Russian political elite through other means?

Nancy Gomez26 said:Perhaps not, but they simply stood by and let him die. They didn't lift a finger to help when he was fading. In fact, maybe they even gave him a little nudge toward the exit.

Seeing how people ignored Joseph Stalin during the purges, or how they practically begged him to come back from his dacha after Barbarossa started, doesn't exactly give me much hope for seeing Putin replaced.
It’s just how some people are—stubborn and unapologetic, much like us Americans.

gentlestag15 said:Lavrov let slip some nonsense about Nazis in Kyiv being supported by the West and stormed out of the session; now I see some folks here claiming we actually have to play nice with those kinds of assholes.
View on twitter

China's statement is interesting—they don't seem to view anyone as a Putin ally, even in their wildest rhetoric.

“Sovereignty and territorial integrity of All countries should be respected , ” Wang says about China's stance on the #warinUkraine.

I don't know why Americans have suddenly started poking the bear regarding Taiwan. It’s almost as if they’re intentionally pushing the public toward Russia's side.
They need to chill out and let China breathe so they'll actually align with the West.

Sandra Harris2 said:Disturbing.

Italian news just reported that 10,000 people have already volunteered, yet the protests aren't letting up. Anyone caught by the police during these demonstrations is being forcibly conscripted...

Meanwhile, Lavrov is rambling on about how this is an intervention against the fascist-Nazi regime in Kyiv that the West is backing.

China is pushing for a diplomatic solution, insisting that humanitarian organizations must be granted safe access to help the population and that exports of Ukrainian and Russian grain must be guaranteed.

A $1,700 bonus sounds tempting to most Americans. I’m just not sure what that money is worth when you're five feet under.
The bottom-of-the-barrel types being recruited from prisons might actually see it as an option. Those facing life sentences in some of the worst penitentiaries in the world might get lucky and swap a lifetime behind bars for six months of service. Even then, they're being told straight up that their survival odds are slim—but maybe dying in combat is better than rotting in a cell.

James Chavez91 said:Man, I was scrolling through some tweets with videos of mobilized guys boarding buses and just slowly pulling away.
You see women crying, kids crying, even the guys themselves—there’s none of that "rah rah" cheering energy at all...
And then you see people just watching them go, almost like they're picking up groceries. It's honestly pretty grim.

The last time anyone went out waving flowers was during WWI. I don't think it's happened since.

gentlerider7 said:You're totally panicking here.

And besides, just because the Americans were right about this doesn't mean you can blindly trust every single thing they analyze. If they say Putin is probably shitting himself, then yeah, he probably is, but that's about it.

They might as well tell us how the whole thing ends, too. My only optimistic prediction is that Putin’s inner circle meets the same fate as the Romanovs.
Looking at the current state of Russia, I wouldn't hold my breath.