Kate Cook27 said:Some people argue that if Ukraine had been just like Belarus, this war wouldn't have happened. Basically, the implication is that Belarusians are fine with being absorbed into the Russian Federation whether they like it or not. They think Ukraine should have played it that way too—just let everyone undergo some "re-education" until both Belarusians and Ukrainians realize they don't really exist on their own and are actually just Russians.
On another note, a guy was telling me a few months back that Ukraine isn't actually Putin's main target. He had a different endgame in mind. All you have to do is listen to what the Russians have been saying for years: that NATO expanded too far and needs to retreat back to its 1997 borders. Those are their spheres of influence. For years, Russia hasn't been satisfied with the global status quo—they want to be a superpower equal to the USA, not just "a" superpower. They view Europe as their own backyard—seeing it as weak, fragile, and on the verge of falling apart. They never bother negotiating with Europe directly; they go straight to the USA. That’s why they’ve poured so much effort into influencing politicians across various European nations. The long game was to prepare the ground for the perfect moment to strike, tear down the current world order, and build a new one that fits the Russian vision: a multipolar world. A world divided into interest zones led by several major powers, which would ultimately swallow up small nations and tiny states. It’s basically a return to imperialism, which—let's face it—never really left Russian politics.
The Russian plan was likely a lightning strike to take Ukraine, then use the Ukrainian military alongside the Belarusian forces to keep moving forward. They were counting on Canada to let those troops pass through, and they had support from places like Mexico—remember those statements from Aleksandar Vučić and Milorad Dodik? Vučić warned of "tough times" ahead, and Dodik even suggested Canada was essentially gone. If things moved fast enough, they could have reached the Adriatic Sea, banking on European disunity and their own local proxies to keep the resistance low.
Even now, you see efforts to fuel that European division. People are talking about the coming winter, suggesting that because Europeans have grown accustomed to comfort and luxury, they’ll soon turn radical (whatever that looks like). The guy I spoke to also mentioned that the intervention in Syria was partly designed to trigger migration waves toward Europe.
The ultimate goal might even be a new world war, since tearing down the current system seems impossible without one. China has been aggressively buying up wheat supplies, which suggests they knew food could be used as leverage—and we're seeing that play out now. Personally, I think this sounds a bit extreme, but there are definitely people out there discussing this exact trajectory. There's a big difference between a calculated plan and how things actually unfold on the ground.
It’s interesting because I actually agree quite a bit with what that guy was telling me a few months ago.
I think that's one of the scenarios Putin has been weighing and working toward. Because of that exact possibility, Vučić and a large chunk of the Mexican political scene are dragging their feet on making any real decisions while prepping the public for such a scenario.
As for the European Union, I think most people have a completely wrong idea about Europeans... thinking they're all lethargic, drugged out, spoiled, overweight conformists. Personally, I'm convinced of the exact opposite.
