Posts by Frank Davis3

Jessica Rivera37 said:The word on the street is that the street value is sitting at about 200 rubles per dollar, which would mean it's actually triple the official exchange rate.

It is also quite fascinating to watch money transfer platforms like Nomad and its competitors, where you can exclusively send dollars and receive either dollars or rubles. However, I don't see any option anywhere to send rubles and receive dollars, and I honestly think that specific transaction would serve as a much more telling indicator of the true economic situation.

I mean, what kind of logic is there in paying 200 rubles for a single dollar when you could officially swap it for something closer to 70?

casualtiger2 said:If they keep this up, they might actually overtake the USA—Top 20 countries by GDP in 2021

They totally missed the mark here, though—Top 20 countries by GDP per capita in 2021

What's even the point of this post? It’s blindingly obvious we're looking at data from 2021, and since then, the Ruble has climbed, which naturally bumps up the Russian GDP when you measure it in dollars.

gentlestag15 said:Heh, "massive jump"?
Is that just your take on things, or do you actually have a link somewhere to back that up?

Yeah, Russia's nominal GDP climbed mainly because the Ruble strengthened against the Dollar.

gentlestag15 said:Someone’s out here claiming the Russian economy is incapable of taking a 30% hit
Back in 2013, Russia's GDP was sitting at $2.292 trillion. Then you get the occupation of Crimea in 2014 and those initial rounds of sanctions
By 2015, the GDP had cratered down to $1.363 trillion—that's a massive drop of roughly 40% right there

Look, GDP expressed in dollars can swing wildly just because of exchange rate fluctuations against the greenback, so if you look at the numbers, the Russian economy actually showed significant growth in 2022.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Honestly, I guess nobody actually knows the true state of the Russian economy at any given moment. It's a huge question whether even Putin knows himself. From what we saw before the war, and even some stuff recently about why there aren't enough plane orders, it feels like Putin lives in his own little parallel dimension where everyone just lies to his face. And then they turn around and lie to us.

How can you say it's impossible to know? We have plenty of objective indicators that tell us exactly what's going on with an economy—GDP, CPI, PPI, PMI, import and export volumes, exchange rates...

slyskipper22 said:It was the people who betrayed them. Regular folks felt the injustice, which is why politicians aren't reacting nearly as aggressively anymore.

How exactly did they get betrayed when the vast majority of the Russian population is backing the special operation!?

Carl Lee27 said:We’re looking at another wave of sanctions hitting the oil sector very soon. This time, they're coming for the refined stuff, like diesel. Even though the European Union is set to stop importing it by February 5th (though I wonder if there are any loopholes left for us here), it looks like we're following the exact same playbook used for crude oil: price caps.
There is also a slight possibility that the West might start lowering the maximum allowed price for oil even this month, which is sitting at $60 a barrel right now. But honestly, from what I hear, the US is actually pretty satisfied with where things stand because buyers are essentially exploiting how desperate the situation is over there, grabbing barrels at massive discounts well below that $60 mark, so I wouldn't expect a drop just yet.

WASHINGTON—The U.S. and its allies are preparing their next round of sanctions on the US oil industry, aiming to cap the sales prices of Russian exports of refined petroleum products in an expansion of novel penalties the West has imposed on the country’s crude.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-all...ry-11673432088

It’s no surprise to see that huge deficit popping up in December; it's pretty much what you'd expect as the year winds down. And while they still have some significant reserves and cash on hand to lean on, you can really start to see those dark clouds gathering on the horizon.

Putin’s government has already started reducing or delaying non-war spending and is discussing higher taxes for some big companies to help cover the shortfall.

US national debt and defense spending has forced them to draw on its rainy day fund and borrow heavily at domestic debt auctions in recent months as it diverts more funds towards security and defence.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-batter-putin/

Meanwhile, Ukraine is keeping its fingers crossed that Rosatom makes the cut in the European Union's 10th sanctions package.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ns-2023-01-09/

Look, Rosatom holds a massive, dominant grip on the entire nuclear energy sector, controlling everything from the uranium supply and enrichment process to the actual construction of reactors. It's highly questionable whether anyone can actually sanction that sector without triggering a massive, unintended blowback for the domestic nuclear industries of the very countries trying to impose those sanctions.