velvetcanyon20 said:It’s deeply irrational. Honestly, it’s gotten to the point where if you look at any serious geopolitical writer from the last two decades, they’ve all basically argued that the only way to truly weaken Russia is by forcing them into this exact conflict with Ukraine.
The moment those paratroopers started dropping, I remember thinking... that was the day Russia lost.
There’s just no realistic way to hold 40 million people against their will without a massive logistical backbone.
For Russia, territory has always functioned as their defensive depth—a sort of buffer zone.
But looking at the numbers? Nothing is going their way. They don't have the population base, and their economy isn't up to the task.
We really ought to be looking at deeper analyses—the kind that project out twenty years or more.
It’s obvious the Americans are putting immense pressure on them. Perhaps there was a deep-seated belief in Moscow that this was a "now or never" window—a chance to make a move that would secure their standing for the next fifty years or so.
Sadly for them, the Americans are reading the room too. It’s clear to everyone that Putin is essentially a disciple of Dugin and his theories. Today's Russian rhetoric sounds exactly like Dugin back in 1997...
And back then, he was adamant that without "resolving" Ukraine, there's no point in even discussing continental politics. And well... here we are.
I mean, look, I don't know if everyone agrees with me here—and maybe I'm totally off base—but the whole idea that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was just some completely irrational, senseless outburst? I don't think it's quite that simple...
I mean, I guess you could say he’s being rational if you look at it from a certain angle—like, Russia sees itself as this major regional power, maybe even something that’s leaning toward becoming a global military heavyweight—so they want to carve out this sort of "buffer zone" between themselves and NATO... and that buffer zone would basically end up being, more or less, the territory of Ukraine.
I mean, I guess it’s pretty obvious to everyone at this point that the West is basically poking the bear—like, they're actively provoking Russia by having NATO practically surround almost all of their borders, or at least getting incredibly close to them... and then, supposedly, they have no intention of sitting down at the table for any kind of negotiations with Russia regarding all of this. It just seems like a recipe for disaster, honestly.
So, here’s the thing—there's another layer to this whole mess. Russia's execution of this military action—or let's call it what it actually is, an invasion of Ukraine—has been incredibly clunky. From a purely tactical standpoint, Russia has basically turned out to be a paper tiger—at least when you're looking at their conventional hardware. It’s like, they just aren't capable of seizing large swaths of Ukraine and actually maintaining control over them... which really makes you wonder. I mean, was Putin and his entire inner circle fully aware of these massive shortcomings before they ever decided to launch this aggression against Ukraine? I guess we might never know for sure, but it's a huge question mark.
All things considered, I honestly feel like this whole Russian aggression thing is going to end up being absolutely devastating for Russia—both on the battlefield and when it comes to their economy... I mean, looking at the big picture, it probably would have been way better for them if they had just played ball and tried some actual diplomacy with the West instead of all this.