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Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 12, 2022

Goldman Sachs predicts What will happen to Europe ’ sa Economy if Putin shuts OFF The gas taps

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/11/gold...s-off-gas.html
“If Russia were to completely cut off pipeline exports, we're looking at a situation where the Euro area GDP growth could drop by 2.2pp in 2022 compared to our original forecast. It would probably hit places like Germany pretty hard, maybe seeing a -3.4pp dip, and Italy might see a -2.6pp drop too.”

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 12, 2022

Russia Soars Past Iran & Syria To Become World's 'Most-Sanctioned' Country

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 10, 2022

According to Reuters, inflation in the US might jump to 20%, and there's a chance the economy could shrink by as much as 8% this year. This comes from an independent survey of analysts that the Federal Reserve requested on Thursday.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 10, 2022

Even US state TV is Pleading with Biden to stop The War
https://www.thedailybeast.com/even-r...er&via=desktop

State-run TV is actually calling on Biden to end the war. I guess things are slowly starting to wake up over there; maybe they're beginning to realize this isn't going to end well.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 8, 2022

Arthur Booth96 said:Where'd you get this?

https://ria.ru/20220308/putin-1777185533.html

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 8, 2022

Putin DECIDES TO BAN THE EXPORT OF PRODUCTS AND RAW MATERIALS OUTSIDE THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION UNTIL DECEMBER 31

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 8, 2022

silverotter72 said:Now Russia is just going to end up with a surplus. Maybe the EU should try asking for a discount. 😁
Google. Look, my friends, we're dealing with capitalism over here—it's all just supply and demand, I guess.

UK BAN ON RUSSIAN OIL IMPORTS WILL HAVE A MONTHS-LONG LEAD TIME TO ALLOW GLOBAL MARKET TO ADJUST - POLITICO

GERMANY HOPES TO HAVE LNG TERMINALS UP AND RUNNING IN TWO YEARS - HABECK

EUROPEAN COMMISSION PUBLISHES PLAN TO CUT EU'S RUSSIAN GAS USE BY NEARLY TWO THIRDS WITHIN A YEAR AND END IT 'WELL BEFORE 2030'

It's pretty much done. Or maybe it's just the beginning of the end. I guess even a discount wouldn't help at this point.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 8, 2022

analogbear5 said:Same old story about how America is going to profit from this. If you're buying into the narrative that the US is basically the devil, I guess it makes sense—but reality doesn't work like that.

Inflation in the States is already hitting record highs and causing massive headaches, and skyrocketing fossil fuel prices aren't helping. Add an energy crisis to the mix, and inflation just gets worse. Then there's the supply chain mess—titanium, palladium, cadmium, fertilizers, and those chip-making materials that have been a disaster for ages. It's a perfect storm.

If the American economy dips by even 0.5%, the fallout for its trading partners would be way more devastating than if any European nation dropped by 2%.

Exactly. It seems like the one thing the USA does better than anyone else is pivot quickly and find a workaround while the rest of the world—like the EU—is still playing catch-up. I guess they’ll probably emerge from this crisis with the least amount of damage, just like they usually do.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 8, 2022

Jeremy Turner9 said:It isn't quite accurate to say he wasn't involved; he was actively trading with the European Union and the West, taking out loans from both the European Union and the USA, and conducting business using euros and dollars... He even facilitated investments into Russia itself...

The reality is that those oligarchs were only restrained by the fact that they couldn't simply spirit all their wealth away to the West at once. From what I can gather, the West actually encouraged that flow of capital—they wanted that money brought over to buy up real estate, import luxury yachts, acquire soccer teams, and funnel funds through various investments and donations.

Eventually, people like Abrahamovich and his associates realized that this entire arrangement lacked any true sincerity, particularly once the seizures began to take place...

Prior to the conflict in Ukraine, Putin maintained a certain level of stability through trade; he simply wasn't financially beholden enough to the West to prevent him from pushing back when necessary.

Just because he traded with the West to get his hands on foreign currency doesn't make him a part of Western democracy—which, let's be honest, Russia isn't.
"There is no opposition in Russia because their leaders either end up in prison or become victims of assassinations. There's no public opinion because the media is either controlled by or threatened by the state. In Russia, people protesting against the war get arrested. There is no democratic oversight of Putin and his inner circle.
He doesn't care about the human cost of aggression, whether it's Ukrainian or Russian, much like he doesn't care about his own citizens who have been enduring his autocratic, and now imperial, rule for 22 years."
Basically, it's like dealing with Maddox, just with an atomic bomb.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 8, 2022

*U.S. TO BAN RUSSIAN OIL WITHOUT INVOLVING EUROPEAN UNION ALLIES
*BIDEN PREPARED TO BAN U.S. IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN OIL AS EARLY AS TODAY

Like I mentioned before, I don't think this is going to be some massive loss for the US. We can probably swap things out without hitting too many snags. As for the European Union, they'll likely just stick to their usual routine, which is pretty much what you'd expect for now, I guess.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 8, 2022

Jeremy Turner9 said:The reality is that even Putin was once considered a pro-Western option.😵

Yeah, right. 😵

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 8, 2022

Jeremy Turner9 said:To those who claim we bought Russian energy and raw materials out of some misplaced affection for Moscow: let’s be clear—it was purely about the bottom line...

Access to cheaper fuel and raw materials, along with the ability to trade and invest within Russia, provided the bedrock for our competitiveness, fueled the growth of small and medium-sized businesses, bolstered consumer purchasing power, and ultimately sustained a higher standard of living for everyone...

While we certainly lean toward the culture and values of the USA and the UK, the specific economic models they are pushing onto us come with a much steeper price tag—a cost we simply cannot afford, and perhaps, have no desire to shoulder...

Returning to an economic landscape reminiscent of the 1980s? Absolutely not. That path leads straight to aggressive militarization and massive spending on defense and weaponry. Furthermore, the "green agenda" seems to be a lost cause if you look at the reality; we're looking at increased air pollution and the destruction of our forests... No thank you; we need to move toward progress, not retreat into the past...

And honestly, I guess we’ll probably go back to doing the same thing one day if, or when, some pro-Western faction finally takes over in Russia.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 8, 2022

silverotter72 said:Honestly, the USA could just replace that same supply themselves. Americans have plenty of oil at home; they could certainly ramp up production if they wanted to. I suppose it really just comes down to whatever ends up being more cost-effective at the pump.

They can, sure, though maybe not quite as fast as just pulling it in from Canada.

Also, Argentina has massive shale gas and oil reserves. With enough Western investment over the next few years, that could become a huge player.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) actually ranks Permian Basin's non-conventional gas resources as the second largest globally, right behind Eagle Ford.

Looking at the most recent EIA data—dating back to September 2015—Argentina’s total reserves hit about 308 billion cubic feet, which is roughly 38% of the total. That puts them second in the world, trailing only China at 1.12 trillion cubic feet.

When you look at individual country stats, Argentina's technically recoverable shale gas and oil reserves sit at 802 billion cubic feet and 27 billion barrels.

The U.S. Department of Energy calculated that Combined, the shale gas and oil resources from the US and Argentina make up 32% of the world's crude and 10% of its natural gas.

So, when it comes to oil and gas, there are absolutely alternatives to Russia. It might be a more expensive route if you're looking at it through the lens of the European Union, but the options are definitely there.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 8, 2022

US Says Its Oil Could Replace Imports of Russian Crude; All it would take is approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline

Maybe Canada could step up and cover the Russian oil imports the US currently relies on. I guess we're really only talking about about 3% of the total volume here.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 8, 2022

steelraven74 said:Western politicians just haven't learned—and really should have by now—that sanctions don't actually trigger regime changes or shifts in policy. They certainly aren't going to end this war. Just look at the history with Cuba, Venezuela, or Iran.

They don't necessarily have to work that way, though I guess they will significantly weaken Russia. That's the first blow. The second one comes when we finally break our dependence on their oil, gas, and other raw materials. We might see that happen in two or three years, maybe even sooner. That would be the final nail in the coffin. Plus, the West is going to end up with a massive military advantage, since it seems the Russians are losing the arms race. At that point, all they'll have left is the threat of nuclear weapons. I suppose Vladimir Putin has done a great job setting things up this way.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 7, 2022

The European Union is looking to slash its reliance on Russian gas by nearly 80% throughout 2022

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 7, 2022

Carl Lee27 said:I guess we'll just have to wait and see how long this can actually last. I mean, sure, traders and refineries are dodging Russian oil for now, but there are some very real, very concrete sanctions sitting right there on the table.

The US Secretary of State's announcement regarding sanctions on Russian energy

The President has reportedly pulled his National Security Council together to talk this through.

Antony Blinken mentioned that the US and its partners are having these "very active discussions" about potentially banning all Russian oil and natural gas imports as part of a major new wave of retaliatory sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine.

Up until this point, the US and Western allies' decision to maintain energy imports from Russia was really about protecting their own backyards—trying to prevent a total economic meltdown at home since inflation is already hitting everyone so hard at the gas pump and in grocery stores.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...il-imports-ban

In the long run, they’ll definitely look for other ways to get what they need. But in the short term? If they pull the trigger on this, we could be looking at a massive recession.
I guess if they go through with it without finding an alternative to Russia first, Western leaders might end up looking even more foolish than Putin. I mean, with his blatant aggression toward Ukraine, he's already lost way more than he's gained at this point.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 7, 2022

Bank of America analysts noted that if Russia's oil is cut off, the market could face a 5 million barrel shortfall which could push oil prices to $200 per barrel.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 7, 2022

Every $ 10 rise in oil prices boosts Russia's current account surplus by 1.5 percentage points. I mean, so The huge rise in oil prices due to Russia's War, even allowing for self-sanctioning and discounts in Urals crude, basically acts as this massive windfall of hard currency for Putin.

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Jun 6, 2017

hollowmoose21 said:Gotta bump this thread up for a sec...
Picked up some more MUX yesterday. 🍿

Lately, I’ve been seeing an average of 2.75, similar to how GPL hit 1.22.

It looks like miners are falling behind gold and silver, and that gap just keeps getting wider. It seems especially true for the junior miners, maybe partly because of what’s happening with GDXJ:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...-catching-time