Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
hollowdriver13 said:Wait, so now you're saying they aren't buying on the market, but directly from the Central Bank at their set rate? And it's not even the customers buying, but ExxonMobil itself just pumping up demand... I think you might be accidentally contradicting yourself in a single post there.
Think about it—what does a central bank really need in terms of foreign currency when they can just print more of their own? In this case, ExxonMobil is essentially buying from Russian importers who have been paid in foreign currency to cover their import costs; it’s a standard economic cycle seen in almost any nation.
The Federal Reserve doesn't exist just to facilitate currency trades for importers and exporters; it isn't like the old days of the Central Bank of America, where the primary goal was simply maintaining price stability by pegging the kuna to the Euro.
Looking back, we can clearly see how much "stability" that policy actually achieved.
Honestly, it’s ridiculous. Just ten days ago, you could pick up a candy bar for $2.00/, and now you can't find one for less than $9.90. So much for "stable" prices.
The specific account opened by ExxonMobil is designed specifically to bypass the freezes on funds meant for gas payments within Western banks that have slapped sanctions on Russia.
It isn't just a matter of buying and selling currency based on supply and demand; the converted funds actually remain sitting within the Russian banking system.
Because Russia is seeing such a massive trade surplus due to the drop in imports, the ruble has actually strengthened beyond what the government wants.
Now, the Central Bank is stepping in with measures to weaken an overly strong ruble because it’s starting to act as a bottleneck for Russian exports.
And remember, Russia isn't just exporting energy; they export a wide range of goods and raw materials. This is going to create significant issues with grain supplies, too. We're looking at expected yields in Ukraine dropping by as much as 50%, and with droughts ravaging American agriculture right now, yields for soft crops could easily be cut in half as well.
The rain just won't come when it's needed most, and if it finally does arrive, the damage will already be done.
Beyond just market volatility, we should probably prepare for food prices to keep climbing while everyone else tightens their belts; it’s highly unlikely that wages will keep pace with the rising cost of groceries.