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Posts by hiddeneagle98

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Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
rustywalker82 said:There's also the fact that Putin might end up making the same amount of money, or maybe even less, if the West hadn't slapped those oil sanctions on him in the first place, because market prices would have been way lower. That move by OPEC is basically a direct reaction to the sanctions on Russian oil. Honestly, without those sanctions, OPEC probably wouldn't have been able to get everyone to agree on cutting production.

The only energy-related sanctions that actually do anything for the Ukrainian people are extreme taxes on fossil fuel consumption. You've gotta stop lying to yourself thinking this current approach is doing much good. It's just not.

Hmm, I wonder if it’s possible that this production cut is actually a Russian reduction in disguise—basically them being unable to offload their supply—which is then being framed or fed to us as an OPEC+ decision just to manipulate the market prices.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Chris Williams said:The text clearly distinguishes between gas and oil.

Try again.

The point is: all that oil from the 27 European Union nations has already found its buyers. Meanwhile, China has increased its imports via the existing Sila Sibir 1 pipeline and is investing alongside Russia in the new Sila Sibir 2.

I suppose you truly believe all that massive oil and gas is just going to sit there rotting in Russia's backyard.

That is pure, unadulterated disinformation. They’ve bumped their gas exports to China by 28%, and the revenue has tripled—likely because prices have spiked.

There isn't anything groundbreaking happening with Russian gas sales; they just boosted the output from those Siberian fields that were already totally cut off from the EU anyway, and that's basically it.
The main Russian fields that feed Europe aren't connected to China, so you can't just flip a switch and reroute the flow.
Sure, you could try shipping it, but you don't have nearly enough capacity to handle all that excess volume—there aren't enough tankers or offshore platforms in existence to unload it all to buyers. That's why they end up flaring it. Honestly, nothing much changes unless Putin decides to let the gas flow back to Europe.

Oil finds buyers a bit more easily, I suppose... but even if the EU blocks certain pipelines, it's a sunk cost at this point. It's much easier and more profitable to move it through the routes they still control.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Honestly, the leadership over in the European Union is completely out of touch.

They really should have sat down and agreed to stop driving up prices by bidding against one another; instead, they should be buying gas collectively. Think of the EU acting as a single, massive buyer competing against non-EU nations for supply. That’s how you actually see savings and ensure there’s enough gas left over for the less wealthy member states—which is what this whole thing is supposed to be about, anyway. But by constantly undercutting each other in these bidding wars, we’re all still getting the gas we need, it’s just costing us an absolute fortune in the process.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
wiredseal7 said:And why wouldn't Russia just leave two or three pipes running? Or at least keep Nord Stream 1 active so the gas could flow without all the red tape?

Would Russia really blow up a certified line like Nord Stream 1 for a tiny chance at reclaiming half that capacity—or maybe just 25% through Nord Stream 2—just to score a symbolic (and totally hollow) victory by forcing Germany's hand? Hint: the U.S. is going to make sure the Germans don't touch Nord Stream 2 anytime soon.

Why wouldn't they just drain those expensive 300 million cubic meters of gas from the Nord Stream 2 section before pulling a diversion?

Why not just drop a few bombs into the Baltic Sea while they're at it?

And, btw, do we actually know for sure there wasn't an attack on the fourth pipe? It’s built to handle 105 bars of pressure—that thing could have easily stayed intact.

The system is designed to handle 300 bars at the inlet, so you’d expect at least 100 bars at the outlet.

If they had drained the pipe beforehand, it would be obvious that they did it to themselves.

Besides, while that gas might seem pricey to us, for them, it's just excess; they're sitting on it because nobody wants to buy it or they simply refuse to sell. It's like seeing someone leave massive piles of cash sitting on the border with Finland just to make a point. What would normally flow through Nord Stream 1 under normal circumstances is basically... well, there's nowhere else for it to go except up in smoke. You don't just shut down gas fields lightly, especially when you're under sanctions and lack technical support or spare parts, particularly when all your equipment is Western-made.

The Americans already managed to stop the Germans from opening Nord Stream 2 without needing any physical sabotage. Nord Stream 1 isn't even operational anymore; the Russians clearly and openly played the Germans for fools with that Siemens turbine excuse and all those "technical failures." Why would the Americans bother sabotaging pipelines that aren't even running and have zero chance of being back in service anytime soon?

So why were the Americans warning about sabotage and patrolling that area so intensely? It feels like a bit much—almost like they were overdoing the whole "alibi" thing. Wouldn't it be smarter to carry out stealthy sabotage quietly while keeping a visible fleet far away from the site? Maybe wait until Russian ships are nearby...
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
wiredseal7 said:The odds just went up—maybe to about 1%.

At least until someone can explain how one single pipeline—where ExxonMobil could only ship half capacity under those regulations—is somehow better than having two running at full tilt.

You think there's any chance it was actually the Americans who blew them up?

If the whole point was to push the Germans into some desperate corner where they’d end up swallowing their own spit just to get a whiff of gas (while simultaneously driving a wedge against the US), then this setup is absolutely perfect.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
brightheron64 said:I'm sitting here reading the Associated Press right now and, I have to admit, I'm feeling pretty lost, especially regarding who is reporting what to whom... Did they just shove some sealant foam in there or something?

The agency said on Twitter on Saturday that it had been informed by the company operating the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that pressure appears to have stabilized in the pipeline, which runs from Russia to Germany.

“This indicates that the leaking of gas in this pipeline has ceased,” the Danish Energy agency said.

Undersea blasts that damaged the Nord Stream i and 2 pipelines this week have led to huge methane leaks. Nordic investigators said the blasts have involved several hundred pounds of explosives.


https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...acfeabfe384609

Man, that guy is just a total clown trying to fix a blowout with a piece of gum.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
quietcobra21 said:Look, the guy just knows way more than any of us here. Him talking faster than he can think is a separate issue entirely.
And then there’s the statement from the President. Even if a Pole isn't authorized to speak for the US government, Joe Biden certainly is.

The pipeline was under 100 bars of pressure—you can clearly see the sea churning and gas bubbling up to the surface. That means it was full. I highly doubt the Russians were just giving it away for free, so I'm guessing they were selling it.

Obviously. If the Norwegian pipeline stays intact, then we'll know exactly what happened. Right?

People throw all sorts of things around, but it's all just speculation at this point. When I see someone cherry-picking evidence to fit their own narrative—and then adding the claim that some former Polish minister, someone like a high-level advisor in D.C., is getting intel on matters that are inherently top secret—well, then it becomes obvious that the guy is just a mouthpiece looking for a paycheck.

Since the pipeline was under 100 bars of pressure (you can clearly see the sea bubbling and gas escaping to the surface), it means it was full, and I highly doubt the Russians were just giving it away for free; I’d assume they were trying to sell it.

Believe whatever you want, but verifiable facts don't care about your theories. NS2 was full of gas, but it was blocked on the German side; it never actually got the green light to operate.

As for NS1, the Russians shut it down claiming their turbines weren't working properly.

Of course. And if the Norwegian pipeline stays intact, then everything will be perfectly clear, right?

No. If that happens, things are still just as murky as before.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
quietcobra21 said:From what I gather, Russia uses the NS1 and NS2 pipelines to sell gas to the European Union, and they use that cash to fund the war in Ukraine. No pipeline means no gas sales, which means no money for the war. Why would Russia cut off the very branch they’re sitting on?
If someone were actually going to blow up a pipeline, wouldn't it make more sense to hit the one running from Norway toward Poland? That way, they force the European Union to play ball on everything—from energy prices to how much weaponry gets sent to Ukraine. The fewer alternatives you have, the more you're forced to compromise. Simple math.
For years, the Americans have been telling the European Union—specifically the Germans—that they're too dependent on Russian gas and need to scale back. Now, it looks like the "nice" approach failed, so they're doing it the hard way. You even have that Polish politician publicly thanking the Americans for liberating them from Russian gas. I'm assuming the guy is sane and better informed than everyone on this forum combined. Etc, etc. But sure, let's all just pretend Martians did it instead.

We can only assume he's making the same educated guesses we all are. If the Americans did pull something like this, there's no way they'd orchestrate it so that some former Polish minister could just broadcast that kind of info to the whole world.

Besides, Russ isn't even selling gas through NS1 anymore, and they never really used NS2 for that either. So, they aren't exactly sitting on that branch, nor do they have any hope of ever sitting on it again. The European side has already written off any investment in NS2 as a total loss.

We'll see what happens next, and that should make it pretty obvious who was playing what game. Honestly, I'm worried the Norwegian pipeline might be the next target.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Carl Lee27 said:It looks like the Russians, after already messing with the flow of NS1 and NS2, are now planning to pull the plug on deliveries through Ukraine altogether too.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...35774432444418

It’s funny how things line up, isn't it? Just when you blink, this brand-new "American think tank" drops a poll claiming that 57% of Americans are totally against sending more weapons to Ukraine if energy prices keep climbing. It’s being blasted across every major news outlet, which is hilarious because I can’t find a single shred of evidence that this survey was even conducted properly, let alone that it's legitimate. Then, out of nowhere, we get these explosions on gas pipelines that are already useless, driving up gas prices despite the fact that they aren't even functional anymore. And now, we have this latest news cycle designed to spike fuel costs even further. It’s all too convenient. To me, this looks like Putin’s final, desperate "all-in" move—a sort of quasi-total mobilization where he’s willing to sacrifice the entire gas business just to pull off a massive psychological operation. It feels like a calculated attempt to weaken Western resolve and force us toward the negotiating table, which usually means he gets to walk away with whatever he stole in the first place.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Karen Doyle72 said:I don't know about your neck of the woods, but where I live, winter lasts way longer than just two months.

You’re completely ignoring the rest of my last sentence.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
I’ve got this nagging feeling that those pipelines—which are basically useless right now anyway and headed for sanctions regardless—are being "sacrificed" just to muddy the waters. It feels like a calculated move to create enough chaos and ambiguity to cover up the actual destruction of the Norwegian pipelines.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
telomere said:Whoever managed to puncture that pipeline, I honestly can't wait to watch the collapse of German industry this winter. Maybe some things will finally click for the Germans when they find themselves shivering in the dark and dealing with food shortages. 😁

The Germans are still busy keeping Oktoberfest running smoothly
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Noah Sanchez2 said:It would have been much better for Europe and the rest of the West if things had been handled differently from the start. Instead, the obsession with profit margins pushed manufacturing all the way to the Far East. If we hadn't done that, wouldn't the goods be higher quality? Wouldn't more money stay in Europe, creating more jobs and perhaps even encouraging people to have more children?

Look, you can't magically conjure up more employees than there are working-age people in the population. It’s basic math. Europe doesn't have a "lack of jobs" problem—honestly, it hasn't for a long time—and the reason people aren't having many kids isn't because they're sitting around waiting for an opening at a factory; it's a much deeper demographic shift. In fact, Europe is facing a chronic shortage of workers, not a shortage of positions. And besides, if Europe actually tried to manufacture half of what it currently imports from China, who on earth would be left to staff those factories? The reality is that Europe needs to—and should be—focusing on high-value goods, maximizing the productivity of the small workforce it actually has left. Even then, most of that high-end stuff has already been outsourced too, which basically just hands free rein to the radical right.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
placidsurfer13 said:Well, okay, but that's just a natural boundary where the USA and the USSR used to live side-by-side...

The situation over in Europe is a whole different ballgame... I mean, it’s kind of like when the USSR tried to set up nuclear missiles over in Cuba, way too close to the US... obviously, the US wasn't going to just sit there and let that happen, you know? They couldn't allow it...

And it's pretty much the same deal now—Russia isn't going to want NATO sitting right on their doorstep... especially since, if you ask me, Putin is basically trying to rebuild a new USSR from scratch...

But, man, looking at how things are playing out, it seems like he really messed up, because now NATO is moving in right next to the borders of Finland and Sweden too...

but NATO is already positioned right on those borders without having installed any missiles, so the comparison doesn't hold water. Calling these two situations similar is nothing more than cheap propaganda.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Quote:>
placidsurfer13 says:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine isn't actually that irrational...

It makes sense if you look at it through the lens of Russia acting as a regional power—one with a serious itch to become a global military heavyweight—trying to carve out its own little "buffer zone" against NATO. From their perspective, that buffer zone just happens to be basically the territory of Ukraine...

I think it’s pretty obvious to everyone that the West is poking the bear by having NATO practically ring almost all of Russia's borders or at least getting uncomfortably close... and supposedly...
it's blindingly obvious that Putin is just annoyed by his neighbors joining NATO because then he loses his ability to strike at will. It's clear as day that Russia isn't actually threatened by NATO and doesn't need some imaginary buffer zone; what's really being threatened here are Putin's imperialist ambitions.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
placidtiger142 said:man I don't even know what you're getting at but whatever. what is wrong with your head, thinking someone needs to experience being sent out without helmets, gear, or medicine?

it's not like six-year-olds are carrying this around not knowing until they hear it.

there's no waiting around for "impressions." I don't get them.

it's not like they're sending off a first group that actually had some training or something.

this is like sending firefighters (who are actually just civilians) to fight the biggest forest fire in the country wearing flip-flops, with a wet towel over their shoulder and a glass of water.

I don't get how grown adults aren't pushing back against being sent on a 90% guaranteed death sentence.

with the way they're equipped, there won't be anyone left alive to come back from the front and tell us anything.

those who don't die instantly will die from hypothermia, pneumonia, various infections, gangrene, or even a minor wound that most people would survive 95% of the time, because they'll probably be drinking god-knows-what kind of water..

honestly, I hope for their sake they revolt before that first group even hits the front lines.

sending a military like this is a guaranteed loss for everyone involved. 90% are gonna die or get killed...

no gear, no experience, no fitness, no training on UA stuff, and no actual weapons since we've seen the rifles they're using.

every second gun is gonna jam by the second magazine, and they don't even know how to take them apart and clean them.

and even if they did, what are they gonna use to clean and lube them? I doubt they even got lubricants or proper brushes when they didn't even get helmets, for crying out loud...

disgusting..

all they did was fail to send three guys to one rifle so that if one falls, someone can inherit the weapon.

they're just gonna catch tetanus when they scrape their fingers loading rounds and rust gets in the wounds.

horrible. I honestly feel for these people.

if they were properly equipped, I might even understand. damn. but sending raw meat into an army that's already a mess, despite being backed by the US, EU, and UK, is absolutely criminal.

this is probably the worst invasion and mobilization in the history of warfare.

I'm starting to fear that the whole point is to have massive casualties there just to justify further escalation.
Just like the narrative about fallen Russians or evil Nazis, when in reality, it's a psychopathic genocide of a minority carried out to serve various strategic and political goals.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
wiredseal7 said:Viktor Orbán is calling for a referendum on those EU sanctions against Russia:
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/statu...EdDlLFiWzl7f2g

Man, he’s giving Brussels a piece of his mind—especially since they’re threatening to pull his funding.
Expect a lot of noise and finger-pointing coming our way soon....

Meanwhile, Nord Stream 2 basically lost all its pressure overnight—dropping from 106 down to just 7 bars. Looks like it happened near Bornholm:
https://www.theguardian.com/business...usly-overnight

Not sure if it's one pipe or both yet. If it's both, we're looking at straight-up sabotage.

Honestly, the EU should hit back by organizing their own referendum on the exact same issue. If this guy isn't willing to respect the democratic will of the people in the union, then he should just pack up and leave.
And while we're at it, let's plug all those Machiavellian loopholes that these far-right, bottom-of-the-barrel parties are using to tear through the rest of Europe.

In general, we need to give that whole crowd a massive middle finger and push them back to the fringes where they belong—before the internet gave them a megaphone to manipulate a bunch of brainwashed followers just to serve their own corrupt political agendas. Unfortunately, the biggest danger we face today is precisely that these types of people are the ones showing up at the polls in the highest numbers.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Gary Johnson6 said:So why don't they just close it? It's not like Americans like Viktor Orbán anyway.

Because if they did, they’d basically be acting just like Russia.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Matthew Young35 said:I'm looking back at my posts from February and cringing a bit... "Putin won't invade Ukraine, haha..." How easily the West gets played by a four-dimensional chess player while they panic over absolutely nothing.


I swear on my life, I'm not going to attack Ukraine! And if I do attack it...

I'm going to drop the nuke, I swear to God! _________

Fill in the blank.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Kimberly Perez82 said:Now that both India and China have essentially turned their backs, it’s become painfully obvious that Russia is standing all alone in this mess. But honestly, I feel like so many people just don't truly grasp what they are dealing with because they view everything through this Western lens of "civilized values." It's a mistake. During World War II, they sent tens of millions of their own soldiers to their deaths—far more than any Western nation ever did—and nobody really made a fuss about it. And Joseph Stalin? He slaughtered tens of millions of his own people, yet again, there was no outcry; in fact, some people over there still celebrate him today.

In Russia, the value of a single human life is clearly negligible, let alone the lives of people from the West. If there is any country on this planet where a total psychopath might actually press the red button, it is Russia, period. That is why I keep saying we have to be incredibly cautious rather than aggressive. We need to de-escalate things. Lately, it seems like the leadership is nothing but Vladimir Putin, and frankly, there are people even worse than him. Personally, I would never pin my hopes on the Russian people; they have never once stood up to their government. They are just... compliant. Always have been. They sit by and watch oligarchs get filthy rich off their shared national resources without uttering a single word of protest. The opposition there is basically a statistical error at this point. For the vast majority, those imperialist dreams of a massive, dominant Russia are exactly what they want. The only reason they are complaining now is because of the mobilization and the fear for their own skin, not because Russia is invading Ukraine. The Russian people aren't going to bring this to a favorable conclusion. Only America can handle this. One can only hope there are enough capable, patient individuals left in the US who can rise to the occasion, because Vladimir Putin has clearly decided to go all or nothing. If we fail, we're all going down with them.

Those tireless "neutral" fence-sitters keep trying to dictate the narrative with that condescendingly certain tone, always in a way that somehow helps Russia. And they do it so "rationally"—it’s aggressively rational, if you know what I mean. It’s almost laughable.

You can't even tell the difference between forum members who are actually sharing info or opinions and these types who act like they’re lecturing us uneducated masses on the "real background" of things. They talk with such unearned confidence, acting like they were sitting in on secret meetings with the CIA and the FBI, providing expert psychological profiles of Putin, all wrapped up in this thin veneer of "concern." It’s not how normal people participate in a forum; you can see it from a mile away. Honestly, it feels like Russia could be wiped off the map if they drop just one tactical strike; it seems like everyone is just waiting for the moment Russia is vulnerable enough to kick them when they're down. It's ugly stuff, but honestly, much like what happened in places like America last century, they earned it. And they'll get it, don't worry. They can threaten all they want, but the contempt for them is massive. They’ll suffer far more than they deserve because everyone is fed up.

Of course, every single post from these fence-sitters follows the same pattern: one line of "rational" fear-mongering about Putin, followed by another line insisting this isn't our war. Every single issue—and every fear regarding Putin—can supposedly vanish if we just agree to a compromise, if we just let Ukraine go, etc. It’s just an endless loop of the same rhetoric.

The peak of it for me is when someone tries to demand a solution from you: "How do we stop Putin from getting what he wants without risking a nuclear catastrophe?" And suddenly, it's framed as if we're the ones trapped with no exit, rather than Putin. 🤦 He has better cards to play. He’s got more finger on the red button than any of us. Or maybe he won't do anything at all if a nuke gets tossed. He probably judges based on his own logic.

Anyway, the funny thing about these fence-sitting posts is that every single one essentially uses Russian anxieties as the fuel and foundation for generating propaganda.

Look at how Putin operates: when he’s backed into a corner with zero options left, his only move is to try and convince everyone else that they're just as trapped as he is.

It’s the same tired script we hear about how "the West is losing its competitive edge" because we aren't buying Russian gas anymore. They act like everything is falling apart, implying that if companies like Boeing or Ford can't rely on cheap energy, it's game over. In reality, it's the other side of the coin—Russia loses half their national budget if they can't dump their energy products onto the global market, which means they are actually the ones staring down the barrel of total collapse.

Honestly, this is a massive opportunity to finally cut the cord on Russian influence here in the States. We shouldn't be doing business with them; it's practically a gift to them. The people who were busy setting up those shady energy deals on our soil should be the ones facing intense federal investigations and being dragged through the mud, not honest, hardworking Americans being squeezed while local assets funnel hundreds of millions of dollars across the border.

So, what do you think about my little theory regarding the way the narrative is being manipulated in this thread?