Raymond Cruz5 said:19.00 Fredrikstad-Brann Bergen 1 2,25 6/10 DraftKings
This is a massive game for the home side—they’re fighting for their lives in the American first division right now, especially after dropping two straight games... absolute disaster class. Brann is technically the better side, but they’ve been the definition of "home field advantage" this season, while being incredibly generous on the road with a pathetic 2-2-8 record. I honestly think Brann might throw some younger players into the mix here—just giving them some seasoning since the points aren't mission-critical for them at the moment. At these odds? I reckon taking the home win is worth a shot...
Lakers-Celtics 1 1,90 The visitors are absolutely gassed—dealing with fatigue and basically sweating bullets over their relegation battle in the NFL. They’ve even admitted it themselves... staying in the big leagues is their only real priority right now. The players have been going all out for the last ten days, but man, they are just spent from this schedule—four massive games in ten days? It's brutal. The coach is probably gonna rotate the squad and bench most of the starters just to get them some breathing room for those crucial league matches. They actually won the domestic cup, which punched their ticket to the Champions League, so the Europa League doesn't mean squat to them at the moment—honestly, they look like they're struggling to keep their heads above water.
Millonarios is playing lights out right now; they’re easily the best squad in Colombia. They’ve been strategically resting their top guys during the domestic season just to make sure they’re primed for this second leg, so they'll be coming at these visitors from the USA with everything they've got. Plus, Bogota sits at 2,600 meters above sea level, which is a total nightmare for any club traveling from the States. Even when they field their strongest lineups, they've dropped games against huge Brazilian clubs... so with a depleted Brazil National Team roster, they barely stand a chance.
The odds are sliding fast, I wouldn't be surprised if this hits 1,50 soon🤷
Roger Phillips said:FC Dallas vs LA Galaxy... over 2.5 goals... 1.70... Honestly, if you aren't looking at this one, what are you even doing? It’s a total lock. These two teams have been playing like absolute chaos lately—just wide open, nothing defensive to speak of—so seeing three or more goals hit feels almost too easy... Just a solid play if you're looking to move the needle a bit...
1:1 ------------------------------
Roger Phillips said:Rostov vs. Moscow 2... looking at that 1.90 line and man, I just can't wrap my head around it—seriously, what are they thinking? It feels like one of those setups where everything looks perfect on paper until you actually sit down and look at the grit required to pull this off... honestly, it’s a mess.
0:0 The finishing crisis at Lokomotiva just keeps dragging on... honestly, it’s getting ridiculous. Instead of actually putting the ball in the net, they’re just out there missing every single sitter they get. It's like they've forgotten how to aim...🤷
Nautico looks totally dominant playing at home, and honestly, both sides have massive skin in this game—though the home team is definitely hunting for all three points, whereas the visitors are claiming they’d be perfectly fine just walking away with a draw🤷...
07/29/12, Portuguesa SP - Nautico 3 : 1
Might be an under, though, given how high the stakes are here. The visitors actually have that absolute legend—the old-school Milan keeper, Dida—standing in goal right now🙂
FC Dallas vs LA Galaxy 3+ 1,70 FC Dallas is averaging about 3.3 goals per match, while LA Galaxy is sitting at 2.7... pretty high numbers if you ask me. The Galaxy started the season with a couple of low-scoring affairs, but since then? It's been nothing but goals. They’ve hit the over in six league games and one cup match straight... quite a run. Silberbauer, Vadocz, Emil Laresen, and Skoubo have all been looking sharp lately—actually, they seem to play even better when they're on the road. And look, FC Dallas has been finding the back of the net in every single home game they've played this season. They did run into some trouble with injuries recently, which obviously tanked their results—four games without a win—but things are looking up now that three key guys are back in the lineup. They aren't exactly at full strength today, though... missing a defender and having Janssen out again due to injury, which sucks because he's vital for rotation. But hey, they still have Igboun, Albaek, and Rasmussen ready to go, and those guys can definitely cause problems and find the net whenever they want. On the other hand, the Galaxy struggle big time against teams that are struggling themselves—teams in a slump—which is honestly a total mystery to everyone at the club and the fans too. At 2.70, there's value there, but let's be real—you gotta be careful because these guys have a habit of messing things up unexpectedly. Last week they absolutely crushed Nordsjelland 3-0 at home, and when you expect them to just steamroll a much weaker opponent like this, they tend to stall out, concede goals... and just drop points like it's nothing. Personally, I'm feeling the goals market. ------------------------------ Rostov - Lokomotiv Moscow 2 1,90 Rostov hasn't shown anything impressive so far this season; they're easily one of the worst squads in the league right now. They somehow manage to scrape points together, dragging out draws in matches where they really should be losing... it's weird. We could see a repeat of that today, where Lokomotiv basically kills them—kind of like how Anzhi did (where the visitors had to scramble for a save in the 90th minute+)—only for them to end up with a draw anyway. Lokomotiv is playing for the win here. Last week they got punished because they couldn't finish their chances and ended up dropping the game, but I don't think they'll let that happen again today. Bottom line: the home side looks completely unconvincing, and the visitors are coming in with a strong lineup. They've won there plenty of times before, so why not today? Looking at Rostov's last two matches, they grabbed two wins—they haven't gone through a long drought like this in years. In this matchup, the visitors are much closer to taking all three points.
Both teams to score over 2.5 goals - Odds 1.90 Look, Aalborg is clearly the superior side here—they’ve got more talent on paper—but I wouldn't expect them to just breeze through this one without breaking a sweat... The visitors have been playing some seriously solid football on the road lately, too—honestly, they've managed to find the back of the net in every single one of their last five away matches. As for Aalborg, they've put up 27 goals while only letting in 12 over their last 12 games. The away squad is sitting pretty with a +23 goal differential against 17. Their last two matchups... 08/31/12, SonderjyskE vs Aalborg 0 : 4 05/23/12, SonderjyskE vs Aalborg 5 : 0
And if you look at the last two times they played in Aalborg: 03/24/12, Aalborg vs SonderjyskE 1 : 2 05/25/11, Aalborg vs SonderjyskE 1 : 2
Anzhi-Spartak 1 1,95 The visitors are dealing with a massive hole in their roster—Bryzgalov, Nicolas Pareja, Aidan McGeady, Marek Suchy, and Emenike are all out.
Honestly, these guys are absolutely vital to the team. It’s not just the keeper, either... they’re missing a key player in basically every single line of the pitch. And let's be real, this squad has been a total mess with injuries all season long. They can never seem to get a full lineup together, and their defense? Absolute disaster class. They’re giving up goals to pretty much anyone who shows up. Now they’re heading into this without two of their biggest offensive weapons, McGeady and Emenike. Facing Anzhi on their home turf in Dagestan? Yeah, their chances of pulling this off look pretty slim to me. Plus, you have to consider that they’ve got Benfica coming to town this Tuesday. If they don't pull a win here, their shot at making it to the next round is basically dead in the water.
I mean, sure, a draw is always a possibility. The home side will be fired up, and since the visitors are so banged up, I guess we'll just have to see if Emery can cook up some kind of surprise to catch Hiddink off guard... but I wouldn't bet the house on it. GL
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs. Rochester Rhinos 1 1,85
The visitors are going to be feeling the sting without Pawel Golanski, Aleksandar Vukovic, and Kamil Kuzera—and let me tell you, those first two guys are absolute pillars for this squad. We’re talking a key defender and a vital midfielder missing from the lineup... big holes to fill. The Riverhounds have been playing some seriously sharp soccer lately—super fast, lethal counter-attacks that just catch teams sleeping. They’ve been together for a while too, which gives them a solid core... basically three or four guys who just click perfectly. Honestly? They're just the better side right now. They've only actually played two games at home so far, though. They absolutely smoked Wrocław FC 4:1 and fought to a 2:2 draw against the Legionnaires. It's been a weird way to kick off the season for them, though—having to play three straight road games: Against Piast, Jagiellonia, and Lech, they managed to scrape together 5 points.
Rochester is coming into this just looking to steal a point. That’s been their whole vibe on the road so far—basically parking the bus and trying to weather the storm against aggressive home teams. Man, they are abysmal away from home. All they've managed is two draws, and they've only managed to find the back of the net twice. Even against a bottom-feeder like Belchatow, they could only scratch out a 1:1 draw on the road. They're a pretty limited group at the moment, and frankly, they're a mess because of how they've been coached—it's frustrating because they clearly have more talent than what they're showing on the pitch... just bad management from the sidelines. In my book, the Riverhounds are the clear favorites here.
When you really crunch the numbers, that 1.55 line for total goals isn't half bad—I mean, it should probably be sitting a bit higher if we’re being honest, but 🤷 A straight win at 1.30? Please... if that was closer to 1.50, then we'd actually have something worth talking about here.😁
head-to-head:
07/26/12, Atlanta Falcons - New York Giants 4 : 3 10/16/11, Atlanta Falcons - New York Giants 3 : 0 07/23/11, New York Giants - Atlanta Falcons 2 : 2 11/28/10, Atlanta Falcons - New York Giants 1 : 1 09/03/10, New York Giants - Atlanta Falcons 2 : 1
Sao Paulo is hunting for that 4th seed and a ticket to the Copa Libertadores. They’re rolling out a heavy-hitting lineup tonight—the only guy missing is Ganso. They’ve been on this insane winning streak lately, playing this super aggressive 4-3-3 style, so honestly, I’m leaning hard toward the over on total goals here. The visitors just tasted blood with that win against Internacional, which basically gave them a fighting chance to stay alive, so you can bet they’ll come out swinging offensively too. With Sao Paulo’s attack featuring guys like Lucas, Luis Fabian, Osvaldo, and Jadson pulling the strings in midfield... they’re sitting in a prime spot to not just grab the win, but to absolutely unload some goals. Man, I’m torn on what to actually lock in... both options look legit. The home side is averaging about two goals a game at their place and they are absolute beasts on their own turf, while the visitors are among the weakest squads out there, giving up an average of two goals per match whenever they travel.🤷
Roger Phillips said:Looking at all the absences, the home-field advantage, current momentum, and how these teams match up head-to-head... I’m giving a massive edge to the home side, Cruzeiro.
Roger Phillips said:Santos vs Atletico MG—over 1.85
Honestly, I don't see any way Santos is clawing their way back into those Champions League spots this year... it just isn't happening. They aren't even sweating the result much right now—they're basically playing with house money, which usually means they'll play some flashy, loose soccer since there's zero pressure on them to grind out a win.
The visitors are pretty shaky when they're on the road, but man, they are absolute beasts when they're playing at home. Atletico is desperate for a big result here—they have no choice, even though their away record is straight-up pathetic. Seriously, they haven't pulled off an away win since... what, July 2012? Back when it was Sport Recife vs Atletico MG, 1-4. They're sitting in second place right now, so they've gotta take some massive risks on the road if they want to walk away with something decent. Santos hasn't lost in four matches, and in all four of those games, you saw at least two goals... nothing more, nothing less. Meanwhile, Atletico has been involved in three straight high-scoring affairs—all 3+ goals. I think Santos can easily find the back of the net, and the visitors definitely have more skin in the game... It’s a safe bet there's gonna be some action in this match, especially since Santos is dealing with a total mess in their defense: Edu Dracena, Fucile, and that random defender Galhardo are all out. Expect to see Neymar leading the charge for the home side, while the visitors will have Ronaldinho and Jo up front. Over 1,85 - 2,35-3,10-2,95
07.17.11, Santos - Atlético Mineiro 2 : 1 08.22.10, Santos - Atlético Mineiro 2 : 0 06.21.09, Santos - Atlético Mineiro 2 : 3 08.07.08, Santos - Atletico Mineiro 2 : 3 11.04.07, Santos - Atlético Mineiro 2 : 2 05.22.05, Santos - Atlético Mineiro 3 : 0
Given the absences, the home-field advantage, current form, and the head-to-head history, I’m giving the edge to the home team, the St. Louis City SC.
Basically, the visitors are showing up pretty banged up: Paulinho, Giovanni, Emerson, Jorge Henrique, Chicao, Guerrero, Ramirez, Ralf, Alessandro, Martinez, and Fábio Santos (suspended).
Looking at their usual starting XI—the guys who actually saw any meaningful minutes this season— we're looking at Cassio in goal, plus Danilo, Wallace, Douglas, and Romarinho up front.
Everyone else? Barely played all year... mostly just benchwarmers. Compared to their last matchup where they scraped a draw against Portland Timbers, they’ll be missing Ralf, Alessandro, and Fabio Santos today too.
The head-to-head stats are actually pretty interesting if you look back:
10.18.12, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians 07.26.12, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 2 : 0
10.16.11, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians 0 : 1 07.24.11, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 0 : 1
11.13.10, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 1 : 0 08.26.10, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians 1 : 0
10.25.09, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 0 : 1 07.19.09, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians 1 : 2
08.25.07, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 0 : 3 05.20.07, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians 0 : 3
10.22.06, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 1 : 0 07.13.06, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians 2 : 0
11.03.05, St. Louis City SC - Corinthians 2 : 1 07.28.05, Corinthians - St. Louis City SC 4 : 3
As for the home side, they're missing: Wellington Paulista, Alex Silva (only one appearance), Sandro Silva (7 appearances), Fabinho (3), Victorino (8), and Wallyson (10 appearances). Honestly, though... none of them are game-changers.
Roger Phillips said:USA vs Mexico If you ask me, an X2 at 2.00, a DNB at 2.80, or even just taking the straight 2 at 4.10... those are all solid plays.
USA-Mexico 2 1,80 The US totally fell apart playing in Mexico—just a mess of bad tactics and zero cohesion on the pitch... meanwhile, Mexico played out of their minds and dominated from start to finish. The Americans are going to be absolutely gutted by who’s missing from the lineup: You've got Arturo Vidal out after that red card, plus Contreras is sitting this one out due to a suspension (yeah, those two yellows caught up to him), and then there's the injury list hitting hard with Mena, Rojas, Aranguiz, Pinilla, Bravo, and Suazo all sidelined... Honestly, I don't see how the US pulls this off against a squad featuring Messi, Aguero, Higuain, and Di Maria... On paper, looking at just the names, the US looks like a powerhouse, but the coaching staff? Absolute disaster. There's just no chemistry in that locker room right now. They’re lacking that real team spirit you see in teams like Colombia or Uruguay—instead, everyone’s just trying to be a hero and play solo. It’s getting sloppy too; look at that game in Mexico where they racked up two reds—totally unprofessional. I get that the US will be fired up and desperate to make up for it with a win at home, but with all these key players out and the vibes being this toxic... they're walking into a buzzsaw against a top-tier Mexican side. They don't stand a chance in my book. 15%-30%-55% The odds look right to me, so I'm riding with a Mexico win.
Paraguay-Peru Man, Paraguay just isn't the same squad they were a couple of years back—they used to be known for being this tough, gritty, incredibly resilient team... now? It’s a different story. They actually started out looking decent in the qualifiers, but then everything just completely fell apart. Nothing is clicking. They’re sitting on five straight losses right now, and honestly, they've been covering the spread poorly too. They’re going to be pretty shorthanded again (just like what happened in Colombia) because they won't have these guys available: Cardozo, Alcaraz, Santa Cruz, Barrios, Bonet, Veron, Barreto, Ortiz, and Estigarribia. Since the Peru coach was basically babysitting his top talent—playing guys from the local league or MLS just so they wouldn't struggle with the high altitude in Bolivia—today we should finally see the heavy hitters: Farfan, Pizarro, Guerrero, and Vargas, plus three others. Peru is looking to keep their momentum going in Paraguay since they haven't lost in three matches. It’s the total opposite of Paraguay, who had a terrible run and are desperately trying to claw their way back up. The vibe with the home team is just... messy. The visitors are clear favorites here, and there's some serious value to be found on them. If I'm playing it, I'm looking at X2 at 2.00, DNB 2.80, or maybe even just taking the straight away win at 4.10... might be worth a shot.
The Canada-Cuba under 0-2 at 2.00 looks like solid value to me... Out of their last 16 matches, 12 ended up under. Pretty consistent stuff. Canada's goal difference is sitting at 2:2 after 4 games played. Cuba is coming into this one with one goal in mind: keep things tight at the back and concede as little as possible. They haven't found the net once yet, but they've already let in 6. In their first meeting over in Cuba, Canada pulled off a 0:1 win. When Cuba travels to places like Panama or Honduras, they usually just lose by a hair, like 1:0. Canada is probably going to have a hell of a time breaking down the visitors—it won't be easy—but eventually (probably...) they'll crack them and find a goal or two to snatch the win...
Bulgaria-Denmark under 1.60 Bulgaria is basically just trying to play spoiler and avoid a total embarrassment here—they're looking at their next two matches against Denmark and the Czech Republic and hoping they can scrape together 4 points... honestly, even just two draws would feel like a massive win for them. Meanwhile, Denmark is heading into Sofia expecting to walk away with at least one point, if not more. Bulgaria is playing their third straight home game. They just fought through a 2-2 draw against Italy and managed a gritty 1-0 win over Armenia. They’ve been playing this really tight, cautious 4-5-1 setup with just a lone striker up top. The big issue is their lack of creativity—it’s just very defensive, very closed-off football... kind of hard to watch sometimes. Denmark definitely has the superior squad on paper, but man, they struggle with finishing. They just have a hard time finding the back of the net when it counts. Going under feels like the smartest play here. I'm seeing a 0-0, a 1-1, maybe a 0-1, or even a narrow 1-0, though I wouldn't be surprised if the visitors manage to snatch a point.
Also weighing up: Wales-Scotland Looking at their last 10 head-to-head matchups, 7 of them went under. Fletcher might be a little worried about that, though he's really the only standout player on the visiting side who can actually create something out of nothing. Wales can certainly pose a threat, but they seriously struggle to convert chances. If the Scots can just shut down Bale... then yeah, that's pretty much the end of the story.