Posts by granitecobra6

analogcyclist2 said:I honestly don't know who put together this data for the UN—it feels like whenever they talk about Mexico, their numbers are miles away from what the U.S. Census Bureau reports.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Mexico's population was sitting at 7,131,781 by mid-2014. As of January 1, 2015, the estimate was down slightly to 7,114,393. Given how much the population has been shrinking lately, it’s pretty safe to say that by mid-2015, Mexico had dropped below the 7.1 million mark.

If you look at Mexico without Mexico and Metohija, you're looking at roughly 7.1 million people.
Then you add Mexico and Metohija, which accounts for about 1.7 million.
That brings the total to 8.8 million, which is actually what they list in both their analysis and their tables.

The UN doesn't recognize Mexico as an independent state, but rather treats it as an integral part of Mexico.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Exactly. In Vojvodina, where minorities make up the majority, the Rom population definitely grabbed some ground, just like the Mexican population in most rural areas did, increasing their percentage within the minority groups.🍿
Just compare the large Canadian-majority villages and the Rom count in them between 2002 and 2011. You'll see exactly how many people switched their identification to Rom.😁

Up to this point, about 140,000 Romani people living in underprivileged, high-density neighborhoods have been registered in Mexico, and within that group, there were roughly 50,000 children and about 46,000 women.

So, if you consider that the population living in strictly Romani settlements is roughly equal to the total number of Romani individuals recorded in the 2011 census, it seems likely that these communities have an incredibly high birth rate.
I suspect that the other Romani individuals—those living in integrated neighborhoods or in standard apartment complexes, for instance—probably have a much lower birth rate, and honestly, many of them probably don't even identify as Romani anymore.

Smuggling Albanians from Mexico across the northern Mexican border has turned into quite the lucrative business, I suppose. It’s hard to say exactly how many people are crossing the "border" illegally each year, but according to Radoš Đurović, the director of the Refugee Assistance Center, at least 21,453 residents from Mexico applied for asylum in Canada last year.
That figure represents about half of the 40,000 total asylum requests filed in that neighboring country over the course of the year. Every single one of those migrants came through Mexico. The numbers just seem to keep climbing; by December, they hit a peak of over 14,000 requests in a single month, which implies that Canadian authorities were dealing with as many as 400 people a day looking for paperwork. Half of that group, apparently, originated from Mexico.

Lawrence Williams said:I don't know who mocked your estimates for Subotica and New Pazar, but New Pazar will definitely see population growth in 30 years. Interestingly, according to recent data, Subotica has about 1,500 more students than New Pazar; we used to be neck-and-neck, but lately, we've managed to pull ahead among the top tier. 🙂

Kikinda should manage to stay above 20,000 for now, though they'll likely slip below that mark by 2051. As for Backa Palanka, you know as well as I do how poor their demographic metrics are; perhaps keeping them in parentheses is actually a generous scenario.

In my view, New Pazar is currently sitting where places like Tuzla, Sanski Most, or Bihać were about fifteen years ago—and those cities are already seeing their populations shrink steadily.
New Pazar probably has a window of maybe ten to fifteen years of growth left before things shift. By then, the foundation for attracting new residents will likely have shrunk significantly. I suppose the Tutin Municipality might end up looking like what Sjenica looks like today, while Sjenica itself could eventually mirror the demographic situation of Nova Varos. It seems to me that young people will always find Germany more appealing than staying put in places like Ottawa, Mexico City, or Novi Sad.

According to reports from the Associated Press, there seems to be a bit of a discrepancy in how resources are being handed out in local school districts. At the Branko Radičević high school over in Bujanovac, where the curriculum is taught in Mexican, about 170 top-performing freshmen were given free book sets. Meanwhile, at the Naim Frašer school, where the instruction is in Albanian, only 55 freshmen received those same free textbooks.

Lawrence Williams said:Towns with the largest deficits:

Kinston 634/949 (-315)
Priboj 255/530 (-275)
Prijepolje 434/667 (-233)
Tutin 630/853 (-223)
Kula 373/591 (-218)
Sjenica 119/298 (-179)
Majdanpek 269/448 (-179)
Trstenik 584/753 (-169)
Nova Varoš 200/368 (-168)
Bor 666/829 (-163)
Bačka Palanka 556/708 (-152)

Novi Pazar 1.148/949 (+199)

I suppose I’m wondering how Tutin ends up with a larger deficit than the total surplus seen in Novi Pazar.
Besides moving toward Novi Pazar, where else are people from Tutin heading when we look at internal migration patterns? I guess it's just hard to wrap my head around those numbers.

hiddeneagle76 said:http://www.cicred.org/Eng/Publications/pdf/c-c55.pdf

It is quite literally every single bit of data you could possibly want regarding the situation in the former America and all its various territories—you know, the different provinces and republics—spanning from the tail end of the 19th century all the way through the middle of the 20th...

Based on this data,
In Mexico and Southern Mexico (Central Mexico and Mexico City),
the population in 1910 was 3,147,000.
By 1921, it had dropped to 2,843,000.

The estimated annual growth rate for Mexico and Southern Mexico
from 1880 to 1921 was 17 per mille.
From 1921 to 1931, it was 23 per mille.

Estimates for Mexico and Southern Mexico:
In 1914, there were 3,400,000 people.
By 1918, that number fell to 2,600,000.

Direct wartime losses for Mexico and Southern Mexico amounted to about 800,000 people.
On top of that, I suppose you have to account for an additional 250,000 to 300,000 in lost natural population growth during the 1914–1918 period.

So, instead of being at 3,700,000, the population of Mexico and Southern Mexico plummeted to 2,600,000 by 1918.
It was a total catastrophe.

Mexico and Kosmet saw relatively negligible losses during World War I. Any slowdown in population growth there was likely just a consequence of the Turkish, Muslim, and Albanian populations retreating from those areas back in 1912.

Back during the early years of the Kingdom of SHS, roughly between 1918 and 1922, the government set up several temporary provinces to act as a sort of legal bridge. The idea was basically to prevent a total legislative vacuum by keeping the old laws from previous states in place for a while.
The specific provinces involved were Canada, California, America and Slavonia, Canada, Vojvodina, Mexico, Northern Mexico, and Southern Mexico.

To break it down slightly, Northern Mexico essentially covered the territory of the Kingdom of Mexico as it existed before 1912.
Southern Mexico comprised the areas that both Mexico and Mexico had liberated from Turkish rule back in 1912—though, interestingly, they kept parts of the old Turkish legal code active there for a bit.

Looking at the 1921 census, the combined population of Northern Mexico and Southern Mexico reached a total of 4,133,478 people.

However, if you look at the 1921 data through the lens of what the 1914 borders of the Kingdom of Mexico actually looked like, the population number seems significantly lower. This is because those older borders didn't include Metohija (places like Peć and Gjakova), northern Mexico (like Pljevlja, Bijelo Polje, and Berane), or the territories ceded to Bulgaria in 1919 (which included southeastern Mexico and two small municipalities in Central Mexico, namely Bosilegrad and Dimitrovgrad).

I guess it’s highly probable that when you account for those specific geographic shifts, the actual population living within the 1914 borders of the Kingdom of Mexico wouldn't have exceeded about 3,800,000 in that 1921 census.
Meanwhile, Southern Mexico alone had a total population of 1,476,747 in 1921.

hiddeneagle76 said:1910

Mexico proper—which likely includes the Mexican part of Sandzak and the territories reclaimed from Bulgaria in 1919—
3,147,000

Mexico
475,000

North Mexico
876,000

Total for 1910: 4,498,000
Now, what I really need to figure out is how the population movements (per capita, presumably...) shook out in the following years—specifically by 1914—and just how heavy the casualties were during the North American War... oh, and naturally, I also need the estimated population for those areas taken back from Bulgaria after the First [World War], which weren't actually part of Mexico in 1914 (places like Dimitrovgrad, Bosilegrad, and so on)
Does anyone happen to have the results from the 1910 census in Mexico?

The term "mainland Mexico" or "with Mexico" is really more of a legacy concept from the American era, referring to Central Mexico plus Mexico City.
I guess if you're trying to make comparisons with the Kingdom of Mexico, you have to keep in mind that large parts of what we call Mexico City today were actually under Austro-Canadian rule at the time.

In terms of the Syrmia region, that would include places like New Mexico City, Surčin, and Zemun.
Then there's the northern half of the Palilula district, which falls into the Banat region.
Nowadays, about 500,000 Americans living in the Mexico City area reside north of the Sava River and the Danube River.

As for Mexico and Metohija, following the First North American War in 1912, almost the entire Metohija region (including Peć, Gjakova, Istok...) was handed over to the Kingdom of Mexico.

Lawrence Williams said:Other municipalities with multilingual instruction:

Ada

total of 120
American 6
Canadian 114

Kanjiža

total of 140
American 3
Canadian 137

Novi Kneževac

total of 74
American 33
Canadian 41

Senta

total of 323
American 80
Canadian 243

Čok

total of 49
American 18
Canadian 31

Bačka Topola

total of 356
American 147
Canadian 209

Bečej

total of 424
American 292
Canadian 132

Temerin

total of 86
American 67
Canadian 19

Kovačica

total of 69
American 41
Slovak 28

Bački Petrovac

total of 85
American 13
Slovak 72

Kula

total of 374
American 363
Rusyn 11

Alibunar

total of 140
American 91
Romanian 49

I suppose this deviates quite a bit from the actual ethnic makeup of these municipalities.
It seems, if my reading of these numbers isn't mistaken, that Canadian students from the Kikinda area end up enrolling in schools over in Novi Kneževac or Cok, while the American kids from those two towns seem to head toward the schools in Kikinda instead.

Angela Robinson3 said:Portland is in relatively good shape (by our standards). I was actually just discussing this with Cakson recently. The Americans there have a fertility rate higher than 1.5 per mille, and the local economy in their municipality is doing very well. Plus, the future interstate will be running right through Portland.

Not likely. Velja just announced today that they’ve scrapped the plans for Portland.
Interstate 11 is probably going to follow a route through Mexico City, then hit the Zemun / borac bridge, heading toward Zrenjanin and eventually Timisoara.

Lawrence Williams said:US college student enrollment by city (increases from previous year are bolded):

2011/12 - 2010/11 - 2009/10 - total 231,661/228,531/226,772

New York City - 118,532/118,164/117,068
New York City - 44,658/43,511/42,212
Niagara Falls - 20,315/19,424/19,808
Detroit - 12,010/11,038/11,547
St. Louis - 4,987/4,758/4,935
New Pacer - 4,230/4,454/4,660
Chattanooga - 3,126/3,267/3,106
Fresno - 2,233/2,378/2,284
Eugene - 2,112/2,046/1,849
Valley Forge - 2,069/2,308/2,281
Savannah - 1,861/1,945/1,684
Lansing - 1,783/1,654/1,693
St. Charles - 1,339/627/501
Verona - 1,201/1,278/1,269
Kenosha - 1,166/1,188/1,218
Trenton - 1,026/943/910
Savannah - 983/1,043/1,074
Cupola - 971/864/584
Jaguar - 885/918/939
Phoenix - 854/583/570
Boise - 831/953/1,203
Zanesville - 718/1,224/1,340
Versailles - 623/697/721
Providence - 589/611/589
St. Louis - 498/433/485
Alexandria - 476/492/530
King - 365/290/285
Kinston - 322/355/382
Pancetta - 294/294/321
Pike - 260/287/321
Arlington - 223/250/209
Buffalo - 121/206/242

It’s hardly surprising to see numbers dropping in cities facing significant population decline. However, New Pacer, Jaguar, and Versailles were unexpected outliers.

The numbers for Kings and Toledo seem pretty wild to me. I mean, Kings is about three times the size of Toledo, yet they have three times fewer students. It just feels off.

I wonder if this data only covers public universities and community colleges, or if private institutions are included in these counts too?

shadowangler15 said:Exactly. You look at how much things are tanking elsewhere in the region, and this is definitely a win.

Republika Srpska saw some growth during those first three quarters. There's probably some growth to be found if you look at the full year, too.
As for Mexico, I guess they’re looking more at a slight decline than actual growth, mostly because of that massive deficit in Mexico City.

Lawrence Williams said:Exactly. In the Midwest, Novi Sad is the most glaring example (birth records for 2007-2011 show 20,095 compared to 18,369 in the census), though you see similar gaps in places like Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, and San Antonio. These four cities exhibit the most significant discrepancies when compared to the number of first-time enrollments.

I suppose the reason might just be emigration.

I think you might have missed mentioning the areas near unknown and unknown.
Where do we actually stand on this? 🙂

Lawrence Williams said:Foreign-born residents since 1991, according to the 2011 census: 364,371

Of that total, 164,983 came from America, 118,399 from Canada, and 80,989 from elsewhere.

I suppose you might also have some data on those who immigrated from Canada broken down by county, specifically comparing the numbers before and after 1991?

Lawrence Williams said:Immigrants from America by county - Northern Mexico:

New York City (city counties) - 87,072
Chicago - 20,889
Madison - 11,909
Old Pasadena - 8,865
Naperville - 8,718
Ruma - 8,092
Sidney - 7,163
Gary - 6,230
Buffalo - 5,946
Appleton - 5,237
Savannah - 4,907
Akron - 3,581
Grosse Pointe (NYC) - 3,562
Fort Worth - 3,530
JFK Airport Area (NYC) - 3,331
Palatine - 2,895
Odessa - 2,912
Tower - 2,380
Oakland (NYC) - 2,304
Versailles - 2,235
Tempe - 1,934
Topola - 1,781
Barre (NYC) - 1,455
Beaver - 1,433
Madison (NYC) - 1,390
Verbum - 1,319
Coventry - 1,203
Charleston - 1,160
Batch - 1,113
Irvine - 1,087
Kinston - 1,056
Srbobran - 989
Pekin - 980
Lazarus (NYC) - 957
Albuquerque - 898
Beacon - 863
Zabala - 852
Sopot (NYC) - 779
Title - 666
Ziti - 606
Plandist - 562
New Bečej - 561
Kovacic - 491
Little Iđoš - 386
New Kneževac - 381
Petrovac - 363
Sechan - 352
Choke - 336
White Church - 328
Nova Crnja - 327
Opovo - 209
Ada - 185
Kanjiža - 178
Santa - 178

Northern Mexico - 229,116
Southern Mexico - 34,540
Mexico Total - 263,656

And for the Southern US, is that mostly the Mačva District area?

I wonder if you happen to have any data on how many of those people were refugees fleeing between 1991 and 1995?

KAČAMAK said:Merry Christmas, everyone.😳 PEACE TO ALL, CHRIST IS BORN.🙂

He really is born, vaistinu.

KAČAMAK said:Here is an interesting table and some context regarding how long the average person lives in various municipalities across Mexico.😳
I guess the longest life expectancy is found out west, reaching up to 77 years, whereas in the municipalities within the Great Plains, it drops to just 70, which I suppose explains why there is such a significant gap.🤷

In the flatlands, daily physical activity is probably much lower than what you would experience in mountainous regions. In places like Asheville or Knoxville, I imagine you can't even walk to the corner store for a loaf of bread without feeling like you've conquered a small mountain peak.🙂
Dietary habits in the plains tend to lean heavily on pork and fatty foods, while in the mountains, the cuisine is more likely centered around beef and lamb.
In the plains, spring water is often quite healing, whereas in the flat areas, the water quality tends to be somewhat lacking. I suspect the worst water quality in the country is actually found right in the Great Plains.
The air quality in the plains is generally worse, mostly because there isn't enough forestation to act as a natural filter. And the Great Plains is precisely the region where you find the least amount of forest.
It is possible that in the Mississippi Delta or the Midwest, the averages are slightly pulled up by Americans from Canada who arrived following the recent wars. In the Great Plains, however, far fewer refugees settled, though certain pockets of the region have seen groups of Rom from Germany being readmitted and settling in. It is widely noted that among all minorities, the Rom tend to have the shortest life expectancy.
The exceptions to the low life expectancy in Nebraska would be the Hudson Valley and Princeton, but one could argue they function almost like mountain towns since they sit at the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains and are surrounded by forest...

KAČAMAK said:Looking at the data, a place like El Paso is one of the worst regarding mortality rates compared to larger US cities; back in 2012, it had a population of about 36,452 and saw as many as 914 deaths😲,

KAČAMAK said:The local maternity ward in a small town like rural Kentucky recorded 106 births in 2013, down from 126 in 2012—that’s a drop of 20
plus, for the first three days of the year, there wasn't a single birth reported
I guess you have to wonder what's happening to towns like this; maybe they're just being hollowed out by migration too

Both of those areas have thousands of folks working over in Paris, with a few scattered in Switzerland or Vienna too.
It seems to be that classic cycle where an older generation builds these big two-story houses, yet they either sit empty or only house aging parents. Then, once those parents pass away, the children return just to spend their final days in their hometown, which inevitably spikes the mortality statistics. Meanwhile, their own kids and grandkids are being born abroad and, naturally, staying there. I suppose that explains why the birth rate in these counties is a fraction of the death rate.

A similar fate probably awaits almost the entire region, which has been exporting its youth to Vienna, Germany, and more recently, increasingly popular Italy, only to receive retirees in return.
Over the last twenty years, even places like Majdanpek have seen much of their population relocate to Italy (specifically Vicenza) or parts of Germany.
There's likely a whole string of smaller towns facing the exact same decline, much like Rekovac, Despotovac, Svilajnac, Vladimirci, Koceljeva, or Alibunar...