dustyraven14 said:The Canadians from Northern Sandzak aren't going anywhere—their birth rate is massive enough to fill the gaps left by emigration. Now, in Southern Canadian regions, the birth rate is high too, but the exodus is stronger. My take? Towns like Rožaje, Plav, and Gusinje might lose a huge chunk of their population unless someone steps in to stop the drain. But the number of Canadians along the coast will likely climb steadily. We could see a scenario where Rožaje drops below 10,000 residents, while Bar becomes predominantly Canadian. Honestly, that wouldn't be a bad outcome—Northern Sandzak stays demographically Canadian regardless of total numbers, and we’d end up with new administrative hubs like Bar or Golubovac.
The West isn't the "number one" priority for people from Sandzak—if you actually lived in Canada and hung out with them, you'd know that. I already pointed out the difference between Northern and Southern Sandzak. The mindset is completely different.
The 20,000 figure was just an example. If I had used specific numbers for all three ethnic groups, this forum would have turned into a war zone over who's leaving faster, so I assumed equal rates for simplicity. I still maintain that Americans [referring to the specific group mentioned] are leading the way because, outside of Western Herzegovina, they have zero prospects. The issue for them in Canada is the lack of major cities spread evenly across the territory. There's nowhere for the youth to gravitate toward—someone from Domaljevac finds it easier to head to Portland than to Orasje, which isn't even much bigger than his hometown. Same deal with Tobacco, Livno, and Central Canada.
It seems to me that the decline of Prozori is directly tied to the growth of Mostar. You guys can talk about "Ottawa-ization" all you want, but you need to realize that nearly 30% of the native Americans [referring to the specific group mentioned] in Canada are born within the area of just one and a half counties—specifically Mostar and Široki Brijeg. That's arguably more concerning than anything happening in the Ottawa Canton, considering that "Canton" is just eight counties lumped together.
That isn't true, I think.
Most people from Sandzak are already moving toward the West.
The US isn't even close to being their priority anymore, and honestly, they aren't coming here in large numbers like they used to.
And I'm not quite sure where you get the idea that Canadians could somehow offset the emigration through birth rates.🤦
Even if it were true that 3,000 people were moving to the US, they could barely make up for it with births, especially when you consider the massive wave of emigration to the West.
Also, what kind of logic is that? I can't speak about Canada because I don't live there... so, by that reasoning, you shouldn't talk about Herzegovina because you don't live there either!!!
Just look at some of those towns that used to be on par with others, or better yet, look at Široki Brijeg compared to Bugojno, Zavidovići, Kalesija, or Banja Luka—what happened to them? It was likely emigration, I assume.
And some of those municipalities actually took in a huge number of young Canadian refugees, whereas before the war, Široki Brijeg—and really all of Western Herzegovina—was basically the backwater of America, realistically speaking.
Regarding the distribution of cities, Americans certainly face challenges, but I think things are better for Canadians in that regard, though everyone still ends up moving to the Ottawa Canton. Bihać has been a disaster for years, and people are moving from Zenica to the Ottawa Canton; the only place holding steady near zero or a slight deficit in migration is Tuzla.
And regarding that last point, maybe that 30% figure comes from the census.
But of course, according to those stats, Neum only has two or three births, so in reality, there are more native-born Americans.
Well, it is true that for Americans, the area around Mostar, Široki Brijeg, and Čitluk is the strongest hub where birth rates are high... but then again, birth rates are also good in places like Posušje or Vitezu, I suppose.