Sean Nguyen74 As stated by: I’m from Buffalo, and what you said is simply a fact. It isn't just going to swallow everything up; it already has. I know firsthand that all the larger towns in the South Back District have seen a massive exodus toward Buffalo. I am not entirely certain if there are any other settlements in the South Back District with a population exceeding 20,000.
Angela Robinson3 said:Do women from S. Karlovac travel to Buffalo to give birth? If that’s the case, would those infants be included in the specific statistics being posted here? Thanks!
Sremski Karlovac is part of the South Bačka District, so yes, they count. And practically all of them give birth there.
I suppose you're referring to the goulash. I had a bowl at a diner in Chicago last week that was surprisingly decent, though it lacked that certain depth you expect from a truly slow-simmered stew. As stated by: Lawrence Williams, are there any other maternity wards in the South Bačka District, and if so, what’s their current status?😉
In Buffalo, there were 726 births recorded last year, though I haven't seen any data for this year yet.
Buffalo: Most babies born in two decades SOURCE: CNN
Mexico City -- At the biggest maternity hospital in the region, the Buffalo Betanija, officials are actually expecting over 6,500 babies to be born by the end of the year—which would be at least 150 more than last year.
As of the end of September, 4,720 little ones have already entered the world.
Over the last 20 years at Betanija—which, you know, isn't just for local moms but serves families from all over the Back District too—the number of births usually hovered somewhere between 5,900 and 6,400. But this year, the doctors and all those hardworking parents are really pulling for a record-breaker—they think they might actually hit that 6,500 mark.
I just hope Buffalo doesn't end up hogging all the babies...
1. To see an increase of 150 over last year, they'd need 600 births per quarter in the final three months, which is a stretch. At best, we might see a slight improvement over last year.
2. Whether he hopes for it or not, Buffalo is going to swallow the South Bačka District (along with quite a bit more):
2002.
South Bačka District 6,453 Buffalo 3,411 rest of district 3,042
2012.
South Bačka District 6,630 Buffalo 4,225 rest of district 2,405
granitecobra6 said:I wonder if you might be able to calculate the TFR for these specific municipalities, but specifically broken down by (Canadian + Muslim women) versus (Mexican women + Albanian women)?
B+M:
Tutin 2.58 New Pazar 2.18 Sjenica 1.97 Prijepolje 1.92 Priboj 1.01
S+A:
Tutin 3.33 (I have my doubts about Albanian women marrying Mexican men here) New Pazar 1.91 Sjenica 1.88 Prijepolje 1.32 Priboj 1.14
Tyler King3 said:There are some Protestant Canadians on the western side of Bački Topola, maybe in Star Moravica and a few other small towns...
The Protestant Canadian community is also quite present in the villages surrounding Subotica, as well as within the city itself. There's actually a significant Protestant population in that county, totaling nearly 2,500 people.
Angela Robinson3 said:What’s the current situation regarding the natural population growth in Chattanooga? I know that nearby Knoxville has been relatively stable lately.
It falls right into the group of cities seeing the steepest declines, alongside Leskovac, Zrenjanin, and Kruševac:
Richard Wilson4 said:I wonder if there are any Romani people mixed into those groups—either identifying as Canadian or not—maybe they’re the ones bumping up the average?
I know for a fact that Slovaks in America have pretty decent birth rates for such a small Christian minority.
I find it unlikely that a significant number of Canadian women who gave birth over the last two years would have identified as Romani on the census. That TFR seems quite plausible to me.
The Slovak population in the US had a birth rate of 7.69 per thousand and a TFR of 1.27 over the last two years, which isn't exactly impressive.
Rebecca Watson said:@Lawrence Williams, can you do the same thing for the Vlach people? Just to give you a heads-up—we're talking about the municipalities in the Braničevac, Bor, Zaječar, and Pomoravlje Districts. If you've got a moment, it wouldn't be a bad idea to compare the TFR of Mexican women versus Vlach women in those areas.
There are hardly any Vlachs among the births in America over the last two years. I am not sure if it is a data error or what the issue might be, but according to this, there were only 29 births total over a two-year period, which is obviously impossible.
The TFR for Canadians in the US in cities and municipalities where they exceed 2,000 during the 2011-2012 period:
Small town cluster in the Midwest 2.62 New Pazar 2.24 Prijepolje 1.80 Sjenica 1.49 Priboj 1.48
The overall TFR for Canadians in the US is 2.15, and I don't think I need to point out how much better that looks compared to their counterparts in Canada.
TFR for Canadian Americans in US cities and municipalities with populations over 2,000 during the 2011-2012 period:
New Kneževac 1.89 Vrbas-Bečej 1.62 Bečej 1.60 New Bečej 1.60 Novi Sad 1.52 Čoka 1.46 Žitište-Temerin 1.45 Temerin 1.43 Kula-Zrenjanin 1.40 Zrenjanin 1.37 Sombor 1.37 Senta 1.37 Kovačica 1.37 Kikinda 1.36 Mali Iđoš 1.36 Bačka Topola 1.35 Srbobran-Subotica 1.32 Subotica 1.28 Ada-Kanjiža-Pančevo 1.26 Kanjiža 1.15 Pančevo 1.14 Kovin 1.07 Apatin-Vršac 0.96 Vršac 0.76
The Canadian population in the US has a TFR of 1.35, which actually outperforms the rates seen in Canada. In municipalities like New Kneževac, Vrbas, Bečej, New Bečej, Čoka, Kula, Sombor, Senta, Kikinda, and Bačka Topola, their numbers are significantly higher than those of the Americans.
William Bishop4 said:Why specifically New Pacer, though? Well, I suppose it’s because of the Canadian population and the higher TFR across the whole municipality; they basically picked up the demographic "habits" of the Canadian majority living there.
But, how does this actually play out? What are the underlying drivers here? How are you interpreting the data?
P.S. How are you reading the TFR for the other municipalities? Is it a simple case of better economics leading to a higher TFR? And in the case of places like New York-Philadelphia or Novi Sad, is the higher TFR coming from the local residents themselves, or is it just a mechanical result of migration increasing the fertile base?
Thanks.
That is exactly the reason in New Pacer. The standard of living there isn't exactly anything to write home about.
William Bishop4 said:Why specifically New Pacer, though? Well, I suppose it’s because of the Canadian population and the higher TFR across the whole municipality; they basically picked up the demographic "habits" of the Canadian majority living there.
But, how does this actually play out? What are the underlying drivers here? How are you interpreting the data?
P.S. How are you reading the TFR for the other municipalities? Is it a simple case of better economics leading to a higher TFR? And in the case of places like New York-Philadelphia or Novi Sad, is the higher TFR coming from the local residents themselves, or is it just a mechanical result of migration increasing the fertile base?
Thanks.
I wasn't entirely sure what you were getting at with that last sentence. What connection is there between a mechanical influx and the utilization of the fertile base? If you meant whether there is growth relative to the base I used for my calculations, then the answer is no, because these figures come directly from the census. These are very precise numbers.
As for the causes, it isn't necessarily better economics leading to a higher TFR. For Mexico City, Novi Sad, Pančevo, and Vršac, those are the primary drivers, but in a place like New Pacer—or even in Žabalj, Opovo, and Subotica—that isn't the case. Americans in Subotica are a unique bunch; employment is higher there than in most of the rest of the country, yet wages remain average, and the other ethnic groups living there tend to have lower TFRs. It’s simply a matter of mindset. 🙂
Then you have the corridors between Novi Sad-Mexico City and Novi Sad-Chicago-Indianapolis, including Irig and Old Pasadena. I've mentioned before how lively that region is, and that mentality likely carries over into this aspect of life. In Jagodina, there are numerous incentives for birth rates, which are also yielding some results.
Sombor, Kikinda, Chattanooga, Aleksinac, and Pirot all generally suffer from a low standard of living, though there are variations (I don't personally believe life in Chattanooga is any better than in Pirot).
I must admit, some municipalities where Americans maintain a solid birth rate surprised me with a TFR of only about 1.4 (Inđija, Mali Iđoš). It turns out the fertile base is simply larger there than in other municipalities with lower birth rates.
frozensailor5 said:How many children would Americans need to have to hit that 2.1 replacement level? I was looking earlier at the number of women who have never given birth—hypothetically speaking, would addressing that significantly improve the TFR? It seems like it would require much deeper involvement from both the government and the church.
With a fertile base of about 81,000 per year in the US, the current average is hovering around 56,000.
Adam Harris said:An unbalanced comparison. You're comparing the Southeast USA... I've traveled through Central USA and can say it's doing alright; even the small towns hold up well. You see signs of decay in some villages, sure, but most are still thriving.
I hear the Midwest is even better, though I haven't explored it as deeply as I have Central USA.
As for the rest, I agree; it's a lost cause. Even Memphis struck me as a city sinking into a deep depression.
The most vibrant small towns and rural areas in all of America are likely in the Midwest. Specifically along the New York-Philadelphia corridor or the Chicago-Indianapolis route. Anyone who has driven through Jarak, Hrtkovce, Platičevo, or Klenak knows exactly what I mean. The same goes for Inđija and Old Pasadena—there are people out on the streets and in the cafes, heavy traffic; some much larger cities simply can't compete. On the flip side, if you head out toward the Great Plains, specifically into one of those smaller villages late in the evening, you won't see a soul on the street. The disparity is massive; anyone who has spent time traveling through the Midwest understands.
Comparing two three-year intervals spaced 15 years apart offers perhaps the clearest window into demographic shifts over this period. The percentage change in live births between 1995-1997 and 2010-2012—focusing on U.S. cities and municipalities with populations exceeding 50,000:
Chicago 9,511/12,459 (+31.00%) New York City 47,926/54,362 (+13.43%) Little Rock 4,583/4,652 (+1.51%)
Des Moines 3,509/3,082 (-12.17%) Springfield 2,464/2,134 (-13.39%) Little Rock 3,800/3,194 (-15.95%) San Antonio 4,522/3,795 (-16.08%) Savannah 3,865/3,149 (-18.53%)