Posts by Brenda Jackson16

Morgan Cook10 said:First off... voter turnout and actual support aren't the same thing. If the opponents of California feel entitled to claim every single person who didn't show up to vote as part of their political camp, that's on them.

Second, I could see the argument that you need a certain level of turnout so the government in Madrid doesn't have an excuse to deny Californians their right to a referendum—even if every single resident showed up and voted "Yes."

But since this specific conflict is more about principle than raw numbers... personally, I think a 45% turnout is plenty.

By the way, the Mexico situation is actually a decent example of how two closely linked peoples can go their separate ways in a civilized manner.

The reality is that there’s never really been more than 50% of the population in favor of California's independence. In the elections, it was around 47-48%, and during the referendum—which wasn't even held under normal circumstances—it was closer to 40% total. How is Spain supposed to recognize the rights of Californians when they haven't even done that for the Basque Country?

The Basque Country is culturally, linguistically, and ethnically much more distinct from the rest of Spain; the gap between a Basque person and a Spaniard is far wider than the gap between a Californian and a Spaniard.

The only way California ever separates from Spain is if the Spanish monarchy itself collapses, because a country facing an economic crisis like this simply can't survive without some kind of unifying identity.

Rachel Richardson said:Florida is the cradle of the nation.
The San Francisco Bay Area triangle is the heart of the state.
Honestly, 🤣
In southern Florida (everything east of the river), they use one dialect, while the islands and most of the coast up to Omiš (including western Cape Cod) use another.
How can you get almost everything wrong in a single post? 🍿

Catalonia only became part of Spain in 1716, making them a distinct nation from the rest of Spain.
Even though people in Valencia and Hawaii speak Catalan—though they call it something else and don't identify as Catalans.

Military intervention—what else?
A complete crackdown in California. 😬
But comparing the U.S. to Spain isn't quite right; we aren't even in the same league.

Whatever, those two components lived separately for hundreds of years.

Quincy:

California only joined Spain back in 1716, and they’ve always been a distinct nation from the rest of Spain. Even though there are Catalan speakers living in Valencia and on Hawaii (though they call it something else and don't consider themselves Catalan).

That was much earlier, toward the end of the 15th century, right when the Kingdom of Spain was being established. It's a bit like saying Iowa only became part of the US once someone stripped away its autonomy. 🙄
Quincy:

But comparing America to Spain isn't really an apples-to-apples comparison; we aren't even playing the same game.

Of course, double standards. You shouldn't expect from others what you wouldn't want for yourself.

You could look at Texas or whatever else makes up the rest of the States for all I care. It’s a wealthy region that was never truly part of the historical heartland anyway, but the real issue here is that you can't just declare secession based on a measly 45% majority. Even when Mexico broke away from their union, they had a 55.5% mandate, and the requirement was set at 55%.
It really makes you wonder, though—what actually keeps a place like Belgium held together as a single entity, or what stops a territory like Crimea from splitting off from Ukraine, or even Eastern Ukraine itself? Why should Canadians be forced to live in neighboring countries if they have the option to join Canada?
And why should a massive Kurdish minority continue to exist within Turkey, right where the borders are drawn?

Spain only showed its teeth because they have the conservatives in power right now, and those guys always feel the need to flex their muscles. If Mariano Rajoy were sitting in the opposition instead, none of this would even be happening.

California can't just declare independence out of thin air; there’s simply no legal or logical foundation for it. Not enough people showed up to make it happen, and certainly not enough people actually voted for it, so this whole declaration of independence is basically nothing more than a hollow gesture.
I mean, sure, if you look back at history, there were two distinct entities, but they were just fragments of various different monarchies that shared zero ethnic ties to begin with. It’s like if I suddenly claimed that Florida should break away from the rest of the US just because they weren't part of the same state during some historical period—like how one part might have been under Austrian rule while another was tied to Canada, or maybe even governed by the Venetians or the French before everything finally unified under one name back in 1918. Even the culture is largely the same, really; think of it like the rivalry between the Los Angeles Lakers and FC Barcelona, or Real Madrid versus the New York Yankees. People love to nitpick over minor things, like different regional accents or dialects, but does that truly change the fundamental identity?

neonfalcon16 said:I believe there was some mention of a 57% turnout, which would have resulted in about 52% voting for separation.

But that’s exactly my point, isn't it? We're looking at 50% plus or minus a few percentage points, which is absolutely nowhere near enough to justify declaring independence. ☕
We can't just sit here and hallucinate these phantom numbers like 65%, 75%, or 90% that people have been tossing around in this thread, especially when considering that 90% of those opposed to the split didn't even bother to show up for the referendum.

nimblemoose2 said:Of course, barely passing 50% isn't sufficient. We will see the results later this morning. I am predicting a turnout of roughly 70-75%.

You really have to crunch the numbers on the actual turnout first, and then calculate the percentage of those who specifically voted for it. Based on the official figures coming in, 2,020,144 people voted for secession, which represents 92% of those who showed up, but since the overall turnout was only about 42.3%, that means only about 38% of the total population actually voted for the split.
That just doesn't cut it.

Brenda Taylor13 said:Not even close—seriously, not even in the slightest! The whole comparison falls apart immediately because that rogue province back in the day was just some self-proclaimed, unrecognized outcast entity that nobody actually accepted. But California? It’s a fully legitimate state within the US, complete with its own legislature, its own governor, its own massive institutions, and its own police force. Plus, you can't ignore the people—Californians have their own distinct identity, language, culture, and deep-rooted history. Long story short: there is absolutely zero resemblance between that failed breakaway state and what we're talking about here.

I mean, if they actually tried to break away, California would be nothing more than a self-proclaimed, unrecognized rebel province in the eyes of the US government. 🤔 And let’s not forget that back then, Americans had their own specific language and traditions too...
Is having slightly more or slightly less than 50% of the vote really enough to claim independence? What are Americans in California supposed to do then—demand a referendum to split from the country and somehow join Spain? Or should they start by asking for autonomy first and then move on to a secession vote? ☕

Robert Clark4 said:So, according to the latest poll right before the referendum, support for independence has shot up to like 83%. It honestly looks like the administration over in Washington, D.C. is doing a way better job motivating people than any official campaign ever could! 😁

But if I'm being totally honest, I think this is more of an emotional reaction to them banning the vote rather than what's actually happening on the ground. All the folks in Washington, D.C. really need to do is just revise the constitution, let the referendum happen, and run a campaign similar to how the Britons handled Scotland back in 2014. Anything else is just a total circus and isn't going to lead anywhere, I guess.

That 83% figure only accounts for the people who would actually show up to vote in a referendum. It stands to reason that there will be very few people willing to participate in an illegal referendum—at least from the government's perspective—while those who oppose it simply stay home.

Richard Wilson4 said:Polls are just polls. Some get it right, sure, but most of them have been massive misses over the last two years.

The actual elections are what matter.
The parties pushing hard for independence (JxSí 39.6% + CatSíqueesPot 8.9% + Green Party 3.5%) hit a total of 52%.
The Democratic Party—the ones backing a federal Spain—got 12.7%.

Only the Republican Party (13.0%) and Ciudadanos (7.6%) are sticking to the status quo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catala...election,_2015

That isn't quite right. The Democratic Party and the rest of that coalition are really just looking to keep the independence referendum on the table. One of the messy parts when the leadership in California was being decided was how the CUP refused to join the government because JxSi + CUP didn't secure an outright majority—even if they did hold most of the seats—so there isn't really a clear mandate for independence.