Posts by rustyseal5

quiettrucker12 said:Stop trying to link gold and inflation so tightly. It’s obvious that gold jumping from $250 to $1,577 during this Goldman Sachs market—that's a 6.3x increase—has nothing to do with inflation. Why is it so hard to grasp that a bull market is just a bull market? Maybe this one is slightly larger than what we've seen before, but you can probably chalk that up to how much politicians love delaying any kind of actual pain. We can call the periods where gold spikes "inflationary," sure, but it doesn't really have anything to do with actual inflation or hyperinflation. Bull markets end in a parabola, so I doubt this one will be the exception. A bull will always find some excuse to rally.

Charles, what’s your take on this recent currency turbulence (at least, that's how it looks to me)? I feel like currencies—not economic fundamentals or even debt—are what everything is revolving around right now. The answer to how the next 5 or 6 years play out lies in the currency game.

The Goldman Sachs bull isn't some paper game like everything else because it's tied directly to the physical market. Central banks are buying gold, and that physical demand acts like a constant pilot light under gold prices, especially since the general public hasn't really jumped into the fray yet. I highly doubt central banks are buying out of fear of inflation; it feels more like they're grabbing starting positions. But starting positions for what?

I agree with that, but let's finally face facts: gold's value isn't what it used to be. It's lost its status as a classic inflation hedge. If you look at production costs, we're talking around $700. Once you factor in actual inflation, gold should be sitting somewhere between $1,200 and $1,300 just to maintain the same purchasing power it had a century ago.

Why is it so hard for people to grasp that a bull market is just a bull market? Sure, maybe this one is running a bit larger than usual, but you can pretty much blame that on the incredible tendency of politicians to delay any kind of pain. We might call those sudden gold spikes "inflationary," but they don't actually have much to do with real inflation or hyperinflation. Bull markets end in a parabolic move, so I doubt this one will be the exception. A bull market will always find some excuse to climb.

Signed! 👍

Central banks are buying up gold, and that physical buying is basically a constant fire under the price since the general public hasn't really entered the game yet. Honestly, I doubt central banks are buying because they're scared of inflation; they're doing it to grab early positions. But early positions for what?

In my view, they’re buying because they see the US is struggling. They realize the US dollar, as the world's number one currency, just isn't what it was 10 or 20 years ago.

They're forced to build up foreign reserves, and to avoid being tied entirely to the dollar, they shift a portion into gold. Many have already dumped the Euro or cut their exposure to a minimum.

The Chinese leadership has even suggested that the issues surrounding the Euro show it was built on rotten foundations and is riddled with flaws. Before the crisis, they were buying Euros; now, they see that the monetary union is full of holes and are getting rid of them.

And besides the Euro, which was always inferior to the dollar, there isn't really a third major currency out there. That makes gold incredibly relevant and desirable right now.

Robert Vaughn10 Asks:
Why on earth wouldn't you want an insurance policy to protect your principal? I’ll say it again because apparently people aren't listening: you can lose everything on individual stocks. It happens. I've seen it. I'm looking back at how much was wiped out in certain plays versus how much gold and silver actually gained over that same three-to-five-year stretch. Protect your capital. It’s not rocket science.

Why don't you have it? It’s pretty simple: because it’s just not going to happen. Period. Building an entire investment strategy around "what ifs" like that is a total waste of time. You're basically chasing ghosts.

Real inflation is already sitting well north of 10%, and honestly, I expect that number to keep climbing. If you want the truth, stop looking at spreadsheets and go talk to actual people on the street about what they’re paying just to survive. And look, if you want to throw around insults to dodge the point, go ahead—but an epithet isn't an argument. It won't change the math.

Inflation of what, exactly? Are we talking about the US or somewhere else? Because if we're talking about America, there is absolutely no way. America isn't Argentina. You’ve been preaching about 10% inflation for five years straight now. According to your logic, prices are just going to climb higher and higher until we hit hyperinflation. You've been blowing that horn for half a decade, and yet, nothing has happened. Nothing is happening, and frankly, nothing ever will.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. It’s basic common sense, really. I’ve always lived by that rule—better to take what you can actually grab right now than to go chasing some flashy, theoretical windfall that might never even materialize. I remember once trying to play it smart with a small investment back in Chicago, thinking I could double my money overnight by chasing a trend, only to end up staring at an empty wallet while everyone else was laughing. Some people call it being cautious; I call it not being a fool. Why gamble on a "maybe" when you've already got a "definitely"?

It’s always like that, really—except this time, it just doesn't apply. Not even close.

Alright, let's get down to business. I’ve been shouting from the rooftops that dodging hyperinflation with the dollar is an uphill battle. Even today, I still think it’s possible—look, maybe we just get lucky and dodge the bullet, fine. But let's look at the cold, hard facts. How much has the dollar actually lost over the last five years? Let me tell you right now: its purchasing power has tanked. We're talking a minimum of 20%, if not way more. Meanwhile, look at gold and silver. They’ve surged by 50%. My conclusions aren't just opinions; they are set in stone. If I had played it safe and stayed strictly in dollars—and let’s be honest, even if I had held Euros—I would have lost dozens of percentage points in real terms compared to the cost of food, energy, gold, and silver. The math simply doesn't add up. It's broken.

Why are you even asking me to dig for things when you immediately follow up by claiming I said something I never actually said? It’s ridiculous. Hyperinflation was a massive possibility five years ago—just like it is now. But look at what actually happened. Instead of sliding into a depression, the US started seeing steady growth, and the federal deficit actually began to shrink as revenues climbed. Everything turned out to be the exact opposite of the doom and gloom you were preaching.
That precious gold you’ve been obsessing over for the last year and a half? It’s either flatlining or actually losing ground. That’s just the reality of it. According to your little group, it should have already blown past $3,000 by now. Just admit it to yourself: your collective predictions have been nothing but total misses.

I’m telling you, I am absolutely right about this. Just look at the data coming in for gold, silver, food, energy—it all points to the same thing. The numbers don't lie.

How can you possibly claim to be right? Where exactly is this inflation everyone’s screaming about? Where is this supposed hyperinflation? And where on earth is gold trading at an extra $3,000 or $5,000? Everything you predicted has failed to materialize. Seriously, look at the charts—gold has been flatlining for the last year and a half, if not actually dipping slightly. Your "inevitable" catastrophe just isn't happening.

Look, I’m telling you again: facts matter to me when we’re talking about the long haul—say, a 3 to 5-year window. That’s what the numbers show. If you want to talk short-term? I don't know what's going to happen. I don't play the short game; I just buy things to protect myself.

You're using the exact same "facts" people used to spin that fairy tale about how gold could only go up, telling everyone to buy whenever they wanted because it was a guaranteed climb. How many people are sitting on losses right now because they bought a piece of gold eighteen months ago? Those are the "facts" you're peddling. Why didn't you write back then saying people should hold off because prices would stay flat or even drop over the next year and a half?

It’s easy for me to find my own old posts where I warned about heavy corrections. It would be nice if you actually pointed out where I ever claimed gold "could only go up."

You only changed your tune once you saw the dismal performance from gold over the last year and a half. Before that, you acted like gold—just like a lot of real estate—was nothing but an upward trajectory.

I wrote that within a year or two, the dollar had to weaken, and it did...

What, should I dig up the posts where you predicted a total dollar collapse? And if I find them, am I supposed to kick you off this forum forever since it's painfully obvious you were 100% wrong in your projections? 😁

First off, I don't trust the government data claiming inflation is only 2%. It’s way higher than that...

It’s incredibly easy to claim you don't trust the numbers when those numbers aren't working in your favor. What you can actually observe is the inflation in commodity markets. Looking there, you don't see any hyperinflationary explosion; in fact, look at oil prices—they're hovering near 2010 levels. That tells me we haven't actually seen inflation in energy over the last two years. As for that "hidden" inflation the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports... you have no way of knowing if it's true or fake. You can only guess. And building an investment strategy on guesses is a one-way ticket to ruin.

During that stretch, gold and silver climbed 50%, and food and energy followed suit. It’s not hyperinflation, but it isn't low either. So, my conclusions are, to put it mildly, valid. Theoretically, dollar hyperinflation could happen tonight, but for gold and silver, in plain English, it simply isn't happening.

Global energy prices haven't surged. If you look back at the summer of 2008, oil dropped from $150 to below $100. Where exactly do you see inflation there? Or are you just cherry-picking whatever timeframes make your argument work?
Regarding gold prices, that recent rally resulted in the price sitting flat or dropping for the last eighteen months.

Preach.

Look, at least we can find some common ground here. 😁

That’s on them, not the people on this forum who were calling it out. Nobody was handing out financial advice here based on such a tiny window of time.

Maybe not, but from the way you guys were typing, it sounded like you were convinced gold could only go up and never down. People said the exact same thing about real estate, and well, look how that turned out.

analogharbor44 said:See that? Not a single person commented on the post. Neither the gold bulls nor the bears have said a word. It really shows you how much expertise we have on this forum! But hey, I’ve got a question. The gold Bull market kicked off around 2000, right? And gold went up about 3 or 4 times before the 2008 crash. Back then, Treasury yields were double what they are today, inflation was way lower than it is now, GDP growth was higher, deficits were smaller, total national debt was lower, and the whole financial system was way more stable than it is today. Honestly, I'm pretty confused here. Based on what you wrote, gold should definitely be heading up! 😕

It's all manipulation! 🙂

The real issue is that gold already made its big move between 2000 and 2010. It did its job back then, and now it's just sitting here, stuck at the same level for the last year and a half.

🤷

Robert Vaughn10 said:I missed this earlier, so here is my response. Am I speaking anything other than English?🤷 😉
So, your critique targets both the advisors and the people who bought eighteen months ago and are now losing money. Let me ask you again... How can you possibly know what tomorrow holds? How can you be certain we won't see hyperinflation or a massive bank run? You're operating on assumptions. There are no certainties. If hyperinflation hits, what exactly are you going to trade your goods for?
And who is going to buy your art, especially if the buyer is sitting in a restaurant with zero actual purchasing power derived from the people?
Do you honestly think the average American, who has no idea how the system is rigged, is going to buy overpriced art or hyperinflated paper currency? No. It's far more likely they'll grab gold or silver. Those are much more practical mediums of exchange.
It might be an unlikely scenario for now, but let's hope it stays that way.
The elite can buy whatever they want. The rest of us still have to eat.

Yeah, and what part of that isn't crystal clear? 😕

Just because a few individuals screwed up doesn't mean we need to find more idiots to blow their cash the exact same way. Where is your basic logic in all of this?

I'm asking you again... How can you know what tomorrow brings? How can you be sure hyperinflation won't hit and trigger a massive bank run? That's just an assumption on your part that it won't happen, but nobody knows for certain.

I said it in 2008 and I’m saying it today: it isn't happening. Only a complete moron would try to draw parallels between the US and countries that actually lived through hyperinflationary nightmares.

You people have been obsessing over some imaginary hyperinflation for five years straight. Don't come at me again with that tired, broken argument.

You're assuming too much. If hyperinflation actually hits, what are you even going to use to trade for decent goods?

No, time has already proven that you and everyone else like you are just guessing—whereas I actually know. You'll still be making those same assumptions five years from now, while I'll still know that hyperinflation isn't coming.

From that perspective, even though I haven't even posted in this specific thread until today, I have way more credibility on this forum than you do. I could dig up your old posts right now and we'd have to take everything you say today with a massive grain of salt, wouldn't we?

And who are you going to sell art to, especially if that person is sitting in some restaurant without any real power, since that power is drawn from the people?

If things ever actually get that bad, paying a bill at a restaurant is going to be the least of your worries.

Will the average person—who doesn't know which way the wind is blowing—actually buy art they can't afford or use hyperinflated paper money?

You don't have the credibility to say something like that, or for anyone to take you seriously. Period. Time has already shown you were wrong.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Why wouldn't I root for myself here, given that the price is practically near its peak if you look at the long term? If someone decides to sell now, they’ll lose very little in the absolute worst-case scenario. A tiny amount, really, compared to what you can lose with stocks. Feel free to crucify me for making that comparison.
Back in 2009 and 2010, my advice on these boards wasn't just to buy when gold hit $1,000; I also suggested holding some paper assets to hedge against potential deflation, treating gold as a long-term play for whenever the next crisis hits. Personally, I did sell some gold, even though I had paper savings and another family member had liquid cash available. I simply realized through experience that my investment serves primarily as an immediate safeguard, while holding paper makes sense as a secondary support for my long-term strategy. That said, if my paycheck gets eaten up by further price hikes, I will personally start buying more, especially considering a potential major correction. This is just my personal assessment; nobody needs to follow it blindly. In the worst-case scenario, we saw a 15% dip, but we've always emphasized that this is a protection play over a 10-year horizon or longer. Anyone playing the short game should have opted for paper gold. The premium on coins was only about 10%. That was their mistake; the advice here has always been about the long haul and gradual accumulation. If I made a slight miscalculation in my own situation, that's my business, and I haven't brought it up here until now.
I'm not just interested in hedging for tomorrow or the day after...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvoAvPjADsE

Because investing isn't about blind faith; it's about hard data. If you want to rely on faith, go sit in a church or a mosque.

Look, if anyone decides to sell right now, they’ll lose a little at worst. And I mean *little*, especially when you compare it to how much people bleed out when playing with stocks. You can try to crucify me for making that distinction, be my guest.

Why would anyone dump gold right now? Especially if they picked it up just eighteen months ago? Only a fool does that unless they absolutely have to. And if they *have* to, then they made a bad call from the jump. People used to say the same thing about gold as they did about real estate—that prices could only ever go up and never down. Time has a funny way of proving those experts wrong.

To be fair, back in 2009 and 2010, I was personally advising on these boards that you shouldn't just buy when it hit $1,000, but that you should also hold a portion in paper gold because of possible deflation. Gold is a long-term play, and a crisis is always on the horizon eventually.

You also used to write about how the collapse of the dollar and the entire system was just a matter of days. Well, time has shown you weren't exactly right about that.

Mind you, I did sell some gold myself, even though I had cash savings and another family member was liquid. I just realized through practical experience that my investment works best as an immediate hedge, while holding the paper side makes sense as support for my long-term strategy.

I think we can all agree that as a long-term investment, gold isn't a bad move.

So, in the absolute worst-case scenario, people lost 15%. But we've always emphasized that this protection is meant for a timeframe of ten years or more. Anyone looking for a quick flip should have stuck to paper gold.

And that’s exactly the problem. People bought in hoping to walk away with a 10% or 30% profit in six months. In the end, they ended up in the red.
I don't see the issue with me saying that gold is a terrible short-term investment, especially if you look at the last year and a half.

dustyheron5 said:That is absolutely incorrect... inflation exists, and it is significantly higher than the 1.5–2.0% reported by government statisticians.

The key point to emphasize is this: while we see a drastic rise in the cost of food, energy, utilities, and government services...
on the other hand, we are seeing a decline in property values and all the assets held by average citizens (whose standard of living has plummeted). This, combined with the private sector's deleveraging process, actually dampens inflationary pressure—otherwise, inflation would be much more severe.

What we are experiencing right now is a combination of deflation (in what citizens own) and inflation (in what citizens need)... a situation known as stagflation.

As for money printing, the claim that it isn't happening is also false. You can see clearly right here how $80 billion was created out of thin air in a single day:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...goes-sequester

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...ease%20feb.jpg

What you're saying is flat-out wrong.

Look, what we really need to point out is that while we’re seeing this massive spike in food prices, energy costs, utilities, and government services...

You can't just talk about rising food and energy costs while ignoring the fact that some prices are actually dropping. For the last year and a half, we've seen a seesaw effect—prices going up, then down. Look at oil today; it's sitting right where it was back in 2010. So, what kind of inflation are we even talking about here? Or is your definition of inflation strictly limited to when things get more expensive, while you conveniently ignore it when they drop?
Basically, your "famous" inflation theory boils down to the fact that oil is back to 2010 levels. That means three years of absolutely nothing happening.
And I'm not using America as an example here, just like you gold bugs refuse to use anything else.

...but on the flip side, there's a decline in property values and all the assets held by average Americans (whose standard of living has plummeted). Combined with private sector deleveraging, this actually dampens inflationary pressures... otherwise, it would be significantly higher...

That wouldn't even be a factor if all that money printing hadn't failed to trickle down into actual income. Let's be real: real wages have been sliding for the last three or four years.

So, what we're facing right now is a mix of deflation (in terms of what citizens own) and inflation (in terms of what citizens need)... which, in a single word, is stagflation.

Inflation of what? The cost of most things is hovering right around pre-crisis levels. In some sectors, it's actually lower.

As for the money printing, it's not like it isn't happening; you can clearly see here how $80 billion was conjured out of thin air in a single day.

And? What? Did that money magically land in people's wallets? They could print another $10 trillion tomorrow and nothing fundamental would change. All that cash ends up flowing straight into capital markets and, of course, into gold. Eventually, prices settle based on fundamentals, which is why we're stuck in a spot where oil is priced like it's 2010 again.

Look, what I’m saying is that images function just like gold does. You have this endless flood of websites and mainstream media outlets constantly buzzing about it every single day. If we had seen the same kind of frenzy surrounding digital imagery that we've witnessed with gold over the last eight years, then images would be just as much of a high-demand commodity right now.

goldencrane15 said:Good grief, you all are making such a massive fuss over this minor correction.

Take a look at the ten-year charts instead of obsessing over the last six months, or even just the past year.

I’ve been buying since 2007, and my stance remains aggressively bullish. I'm right along with Jim Rogers and Marc Faber on this one.

The fundamental drivers for gold haven't budged; nothing has actually been resolved yet.

The underlying trend is clear: in the coming era, the world will have to shift from a dollar-dominated system to one where power is split among several currencies—some of which aren't even on anyone's radar right now. That transition simply cannot happen without gold.

☕

Look, there is absolutely no way China, India, Brazil, or Russia are ever going to back their money with gold. You only need to look at how much cash they’re printing to see the truth. Compared to them, the United States looks like a little kid playing in a sandbox.

The United States walked away from the gold standard for a reason, and frankly, there’s zero chance that China, India, or Brazil are going to tether their currencies to gold anytime soon.

You’re never going to see that movie play out.

Maybe if you asked the Germans, but nobody's really asking them anymore, especially since their global influence is shrinking by the day.

As for the dollar's dominance? It’s staying put for now. Sure, it'll lose its grip, but the dollar isn't going to stop being the heavyweight champion of the world overnight. This is a long, slow grind.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Fine. And? In my household, we’ve barricaded ourselves on just about every level... from production all the way down to consumption.
So, prices are crashing? Great. That creates the assumption of growth built on actual foundations. Agony? Personally, I expect at least another 20 years of this...
I'm talking about my own family; everyone else can fend for themselves, and the people at the top can handle the state.😉
Since nobody wants to listen anyway.
Besides, we'll probably join the European Union, so maybe we can remain a dysfunctional mess for a little longer. Something like Romania or Bulgaria. If they can manage it...
Actually, half—if not more—of the countries in the European Union are practically dysfunctional. That much seems obvious.🤣

Glad you're feeling good about it. 😉

Besides, we’ll probably just integrate further into the system, so maybe we can play the "banana republic" card for a little longer. Something like Romania or Bulgaria. If they can pull it off...
Let's face it, half—if not more—of the countries in the EU are basically banana republics. That much is obvious.🤣

I'm with you on that. But don't look at Romania or Bulgaria as the benchmark; they haven't even been in the club for ten years. Look at Greece, Portugal, or Spain—they've been members for decades.

The EU members are neck-deep in a massive pile of crap. It's clear we're watching an era of global dominance reach its final, desperate gasp.

Now, all they have left to do is try to manufacture some kind of "United States of Europe" fantasy, and the endless cycle of fake happiness will continue.

Raymond Vaughn8 said:So, if you gold bugs claim to have no idea what tomorrow holds, why aren't you picking up something like this instead?
http://johnnyforever.files.wordpress...-u-sumi-59.jpg. Or frankly, any piece of fine art from a recognized master. That’s
actual protection against inflation, currency fluctuations, or shifts in the monetary system—not just some shiny, colored pebble.

Because people haven't been "brainwashed" into believing in gold the way they have. 🤷

Robert Vaughn10 said:You're looking at a best-case scenario. If this holds, the paper economy stabilizes and we finally exit the crisis. But you're asking about gold... A crisis will likely return eventually—maybe not in ten years, perhaps in fifty. That’s when gold, which acts as a long-term store of value, finally pays off.😉
I still prefer having that insurance policy on hand, whether I need it this afternoon or when I'm ninety.

We aren't the USA. The US economy has been growing for three years straight. This country has always been a total circus, and frankly, nothing has changed.

We aren't getting out of this crisis anytime soon.

lonehawk5 said:The TL;DR version for all you fundamentalists out there...
According to the CBO's baseline projections for the ten-year outlook, that budget deficit is supposed to plummet from the current 7% of GDP down to just 2.5% in only three years. We’re talking about the $1.15 trillion deficit from 2012 shrinking all the way down to a measly $433 billion by 2015. They're predicting nominal economic growth of 3.1%, 3.5%, and then hitting 5.9%. Apparently, tax revenue is going to skyrocket while spending stays under control. Plus, they claim interest on ten-year Treasuries won't top 3.5% by 2015. And since the Federal Reserve promised to keep things steady, interest on 90-day Treasuries shouldn't climb above 20 bps. Inflation will remain high and the interest component of the consolidated budget will go from $223 billion to a mere $273 billion.

If this actually happens, where the hell is gold gonna be?☕

Even the hawks back then knew two years out that a total collapse wasn't happening. Honestly, anyone who didn't spend all day reading nothing but gold-bug forums could have seen that coming.

It's pretty obvious that the US will gradually shed its debt burden through a mix of steady growth and slightly elevated inflation—though I don't see it breaking 5%. This is the same playbook that will play out in Europe once the Eurozone falls apart, in Japan, and frankly, it's already happening in the rest of the world.

All of this points to one thing: gold is still a long-term winner.

Robert Vaughn10 said:And how do you know a crisis won't hit tomorrow? If it does, those without it will be left stranded. You don't actually know, yet you insist people shouldn't buy. That's probability, not certainty. Personally, I try to keep my gambling exposure to a minimum. In fact, for the short term, I'm almost rooting for a price drop—just so I can prepare better and lock everything in to secure myself for the very long haul. But even if it climbs, I won't be caught off guard. For prices to spike like that, things would have to go completely haywire, and I might take a hit on the paper side. Nothing is ever certain, including my own take, so... I suppose one should just appreciate the beauty of the game. If I were bored, I wouldn't be saying any of this.

Am I accidentally typing in Turkish or something? 😕

Do you even grasp what I was trying to say? Because if you actually understood my point, then your response to me makes absolutely zero sense.

If you want to strip away the anxiety and stop playing games with your future, here’s the move: buy a piece of gold today using whatever cash you know you’re going to need six to twelve months down the line. Then, take that same amount and park it in a high-yield savings account. I’ve been watching the markets closely for the last eighteen months, and frankly, my gut was right on this one. It works.

If you want to strip away the gambling aspect entirely, you aren't looking at year-to-year flips. You’re talking about buying gold for the long haul. We're talking decades, not twelve-month cycles. I remember my old man used to say that if you're trying to time the market on precious metals, you've already lost the game. Real stability comes from holding steady while everyone else panics over the daily news cycle. Don't get cute with it. Buy it, tuck it away, and stop checking the price every morning.

I honestly don't get why you people keep baiting them. You’re essentially luring people into a trap because a massive crowd of uninformed readers fell for the hype. Now, they're stuck. They went in looking for a quick win, but because they didn't know what they were doing, their "short-term play" suddenly turned into a long-term holding they can't even exit. It's a mess.

Honestly, in the short term, I’m actually rooting for a price drop. I want to see it dip just enough so I can dig my heels in, stack my position, and basically cement myself in for the long haul. I want that rock-solid foundation. But hey, if the market decides to moon instead? I won't be caught sleeping. If things really take off, I might end up taking a hit on paper—my unrealized gains would look great, but my actual liquidity might feel the squeeze. Nothing is ever a sure bet, not even my own rambling theories, so why stress? At the end of the day, you just have to appreciate the sheer spectacle of the game. If this wasn't thrilling, I wouldn't bother talking about it at all.

Look, you’re trying to have your cake and eat it too. You want the best of both worlds, but that's just not how the math works. You can't apply that logic to everyone. Some people aren't even looking at long-term savings or retirement funds; they’re just playing around with whatever extra cash they have sitting in their checking account right now. It's all about immediate liquidity for them.

Robert Vaughn10 said:You’re throwing around plenty of insults, yet you lack any actual facts to back them up. We’ve always maintained that gold is fundamentally a long-term play, even if nobody can pinpoint exactly when a crisis will hit or when prices will spike. I've said it myself. Honestly, I'm starting to bore myself with my own repetition. My point is this: should we sell gold right now or not? Give me a straight answer to a direct question. You claim it's smart for the long haul, but insist there won't be any more short-term surges. Fine. Give me a specific timeframe so we can actually judge your logic.

Look, my take is simple: if you already hold gold, don't touch it. If you're looking at a medium to long-term play, go ahead and buy. But if you're eyeing a 6 to 12-month window? Stay away.

I honestly don't get why people struggle to grasp my point. I am telling people: do not buy gold if you need that cash back in six months or a year. It's a gamble. Nobody—and I mean nobody—can tell you what the price will be in 6 months versus 12 months. Anyone claiming they know whether it's going up or down is simply LYING to your face.

As far as the long-term trend goes, I think we can all agree that gold is headed up. 🤷

quiettrucker12 said:It’s unlikely they bought because of this forum. I explicitly called out when the correction would start back in 2011. Every single "buy silver" recommendation happened when it was sitting at $28. If gold tanks below roughly $1,490, then maybe I'll rethink my stance. COT reports show commercial players have record-low short positions while speculators are hitting record highs. $bpgdm is flirting with record lows, $hui is hugging the 2000-2008-2013 trendline, and sentiment is at an all-time low—lower than even 2008. Meanwhile, a massive wave of retail investors is piling into stocks expecting eternal growth, which is usually a sign the top is near. It's fundamentally similar to what we saw with gold in 2011, except in my view, the stock market is in a secular bear while gold is in a secular bull. So, anyone who bought gold at, say, $1,850 will likely be back to break-even very soon. On another note, I totally agree that we won't see another 2008-style crash because they have QE to cushion the fall when things move. Ben has pulled off plenty with QE, but there's no way he can reverse a secular bear in the stock market, let alone stop a secular bull in gold.

What’s stalling the gold bull market right now are the whispers about potentially ending QE. Once everyone finally realizes that stopping the printing presses isn't actually an option, the gold bull will reignite. The only thing that might convince politicians to stop printing is a spike in inflation—like soaring oil prices—or reaching a point where stopping the printing hurts more than continuing it.

I’m not buying it. I’ll say it again: there is no inflation. Period. And because there's no inflation, there is absolutely no justification for gold prices to keep climbing.

Look at oil. It's sitting right where it was back in 2010. We're living in 2013 here. Historically, oil and food prices spike first and then crash, which is exactly what we've seen over the last four years.

That’s the only "inflation" the gold bugs are clinging to, but let me be blunt: it isn't real inflation.

As for the money printing? It’s not happening the way you think it is, so there is zero momentum for price growth today.

Furthermore, if you actually look at the price of gold compared to production costs and inflation, the current price is perfectly reasonable.

Anyone who thought gold would just keep ripping 20% higher every single year seriously screwed up. It won't happen. Gold had its glory days already. The real question isn't whether it will go up, but when we might see another run like the one we had from 2002 to 2011.

quiettrucker12 said:So, it’s all just smoke and mirrors after all?

I’ve noticed that this round of QE kicked off right when oil prices were hitting their absolute peak.

Here’s the deal: if QE kicks in and drives up oil prices—which, let's face it, has happened every single time we've seen QE so far—it’s going to put massive pressure on an already fragile economy. We'll likely see a slide into recession and a sharp drop in demand. Once that happens, QE loses its magic. So, what then? Are we actually looking at the start of the bull market everyone is currently hyping up, or is this just a final, desperate bear market rally?

Yeah, gold is definitely undervalued right now. As for the stock market? It’s basically being kept on life support by QE.

I don't get this.

Neither $145 nor that $34 from 2008 are useful data points for drawing smart conclusions. That growth was a specific outlier during the commodity bull run, just like the drop to roughly $34 afterward.

Yeah, right. If I actually had the power to manipulate gold... 😁

Back in October 2011, I already called it—said we’d see at least a year of consolidation for gold. I’m not big on manipulation theories, but in November 2013, there was a low-volume attack on gold during after-hours trading right when it should have been moving up. It dragged out the consolidation, sure, but there's no way it stops a bull market that's been running for 12 years.

gold bull

Honestly, this kind of frustrated, whiny tone on the forums is usually a reliable sign that gold is hitting bottom.

Look, I’m not trying to lecture you. I’m just giving you the straight truth on how things used to be versus how they are right now.

I’ve been crunching the numbers, and I've come to a pretty blunt conclusion: this round of QE kicked off right when oil prices were hitting their absolute peak. It's hard to ignore that correlation.

Honestly, I don't see why anyone is making such a big deal out of this. It’s trivial. If we were talking about a massive 10% or 20% swing, then maybe we’d have something to discuss, but we're talking about a difference of a few bucks here. A few dollars! Give me a break. Besides, looking at the oil markets, I just don't see any way prices are hitting $110 in the next year, let alone touching those legendary $150 peaks everyone keeps obsessing over. It’s just not happening. Oil fluctuates, sure—it’s always bouncing around—but if you look at the last five years, it’s mostly just been idling between $90 and $110. It stays in that lane. Period.

Look, here’s how I see it. If we get hit with another round of QE, oil prices are going to spike. It’s happened every single time we've seen this kind of stimulus before. Once those energy costs climb, they’re going to put massive pressure on an already fragile economy, eventually forcing us straight into a recession and tanking demand. At that point, QE stops being a magic wand and just stops working altogether. So, what happens then? Is this actually the start of the massive bull market everyone is currently shouting about, or are we all just witnessing one final, desperate bear market rally?

Look, when you step back and look at monetary policy through a macro lens, we’ve clearly hit a wall. We're reaching the absolute limits of what can actually be done. But? If you shift your perspective toward the stock market, those boundaries basically vanish. There is no ceiling. As long as the Federal Reserve decides they want to print money, they can. They’ll keep pumping liquidity into the system just to keep the stock market from ever seeing a real collapse. It's a rigged game, plain and simple.

Yeah, gold is totally undervalued right now. Honestly, the stock market is only staying on life support because of constant QE. It’s artificial.

How is this even possible? Gold is up 60%—and don't even get me started on inflation, because that definitely isn't the reason here—yet the stock market is sitting at a measly 14% gain. We’re talking about corporate earnings hitting historic highs right now. It makes zero sense.

I don't get this.

I’m talking about corporate profits hitting levels we have never seen before. Seriously, they're at historic highs. They’ve never been this bloated.

Look, you can throw around numbers like $145 or that $34 mark from back in 2008 all day long, but honestly? It’s useless. You aren't going to draw any intelligent conclusions from them. That specific growth spurt was its own freak occurrence within the commodity bull market—a total outlier. And that crash down to $34 right after? Just as much of a one-off. Comparing it to anything else today is just bad math.

😕

Quote:
Back then, you guys called $150 oil "inflation." Now, suddenly, $90 oil is also "inflation" caused by reckless money printing. You just move the goalposts whenever it suits your narrative.

Yeah, right. Like I’m actually in a position to manipulate the price of gold.

I was talking about the context of your posts. 😁

Way back in October 2011, I mentioned we were looking at at least a year of consolidation for gold. Look, I'm not big on manipulation theories, but in November 2013, there was this low-volume after-hours attack on gold right when it should have been breaking out. It dragged out the consolidation, sure, but there's no way that stopped a bull market that's been running for 12 years straight.

That has absolutely nothing to do with the fundamentals that have driven gold prices since the beginning of time. Based on actual fundamentals, gold has a specific value. It doesn't go higher than $1,800.

Right now? Given the massive debt levels, it’s definitely headed up in the long run—but let's be honest, we'll all be dead by then anyway.

What most gold bugs dream about is some grand conspiracy where they manipulate gold to prevent the total collapse of our monetary system. It’s pure idiocy. I honestly don't understand how someone with even average cognitive abilities can swallow such nonsense and base an entire investment strategy on it.

Usually, this kind of frustrated tone on the forums is a reliable indicator that gold has hit bottom or is very close to it.

The only people who are frustrated are the ones who bought in eighteen months ago and are currently sitting on losses. They bought in because they listened to the amateurs posting on this thread. One amateur reads another amateur, buys in, and suddenly their "short-term trade" becomes a "long-term investment" out of pure necessity. 😁

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Bottom line: gold is a lousy short-term play but a solid long-term one. And FYI, everyone in this thread holding physical gold or silver is playing the long game.
From where I'm sitting, you haven't actually said anything intelligent other than venting your negativity about gold's short-term fluctuations.
So, what's your actual expertise here? I'd love to hear it.

Well, the last eighteen months have proven I'm right. Just like the last twenty years have. 🤷

Don't you realize everyone here holding physical gold or silver is a long-term investor?

If that’s actually true, then why on earth is everyone here checking prices every single day and obsessing over every little bump in the gold market? If you were truly playing the long game, you wouldn't give a damn about the daily fluctuations. You'd just let the market do its thing instead of acting like a bunch of frantic cultists constantly staring at charts.

🙂

From what I can see, you haven't said anything smart besides being negative about gold in the short run.

Just like most of the other people on this thread. 😁

And what exactly is your level of expertise? Please answer.

🙂

dustyheron5 said:You don't have to speak as a speculator; you can speak as an investor... what do you consider to be the best asset to hold right now?.......
I assume you actually have an opinion.

I’m not buying for a 6 to 12-month window. Because of that, I couldn't care less about anything else related to short-term fluctuations.

I wouldn't even dare touch gold today if there was a chance I'd be forced to dump it in six months or a year. That's just bad math.

If I don't need the cash anytime soon, then yeah, gold would definitely be at the top of my list.

From a long-term perspective, gold is looking like a steal right now. 😛

dustyheron5 said:Listen, rustyseal5... just ignore quiettrucker12. Tell us—what would be a smart move for an investment right now? Something with a horizon of maybe six months to a year.
I know this isn't strictly what this thread is about—but hey, it’s always good to hear a different perspective.

Alright, the floor is yours.

That’s business for speculators like Charles. I’m no speculator, so I won't pretend to be an expert on that.

Long-term? Gold is easily one of the smarter plays.

And honestly, I don't see the point in certain people here constantly pushing gold or making regular folks feel like it's some big deal. To most sensible people, gold is just a little something to hold onto for a bit of long-term growth.

The fact that a few guys here obsess over it says more about their cognitive abilities than anything else.

For five years straight, we've had these clowns predicting things and acting like they're geniuses every single day.

If you had asked them eighteen months ago whether it would be worth more today, we all know exactly what they would have said.

That tells you everything you need to know about their "expertise." Like someone else pointed out, they don't actually possess knowledge—they just have faith. When you lack actual data, all you've got left is blind belief. 😁

quiettrucker12 said:Is it actually better, or just "better" for the sake of endless rounds of QE (1+2+3...)? Basically, is it significantly worse?

Take a look at the debt levels in 2008 versus 2012:

US debt

oil:QE

With every round of QE, our starting price gets higher—this time it’s $85. If it slips back toward $150, there's no way they avoid a recession.

I don't get it.

Just look: in five years, gold is up 60% while the stock market is only up 14%.

From March 2013 to March 2018—time will tell.

Look, if you compare where we were in the fall of 2008 to where we are now, a year later, things are incomparably better today. Besides, the debt growth isn't even that extreme. The financial crisis the US went through was nothing compared to what other countries had to stomach. Americans got off relatively easy.

With every round of QE, our starting price gets higher—this time it's $85. If it escapes to $150 again, they won't stand a chance at avoiding a recession.

Right now, oil is sitting at $90, which is basically where it was back in late 2010. If you want to play games with numbers and manipulate data, sure, this chart might work for you. But look at the actual oil market: prices have been swinging up and down for five years straight.

And it’ll stay that way. It’s obvious that despite all the massive money printing, the global economy can't sustain oil above $100 without demand cratering, which brings the price right back down.

So, over 5 years, gold is up 60% and the stock market is up 14%.

Between March 2013 and March 2018, we'll see who's right.

So, we've reached the conclusion that the stock market grew by a whopping 14% while we were all still breathing. Wow. No bubble there, right? Meanwhile, gold is up 60%, so according to your logic, gold is undervalued and the stock market is overpriced.

How is that even possible when earnings per share are higher today than they were four years ago?

How does that work if prices haven't surged that much? Look, if you really want to manipulate the narrative, go check what things like wheat or gold were worth in the summer of 2008 versus today.

Plus, you completely ignored the most important part of my quote.

For five years, we've been hearing from the same group of people about how everything not tied to gold is headed for a total collapse.

Are you intentionally manipulating the truth the same way you manipulate the gold data?

When eight months pass and absolutely nothing happens, will you finally admit you don't know anything and stop posting these endless "forecasts" of yours? 😁

I can't believe I'm even seeing this here. It’s honestly exhausting. Every single time someone tries to bring up these points, we end up right back in the same loop. I remember sitting in a diner outside of Chicago last winter, watching some guy argue about the exact same nonsense with a waitress who clearly didn't care, and it hit me then—this is just how people operate. They want the argument more than they want the truth. It’s repetitive. It’s tedious. And frankly, it’s a waste of everyone's time. We need to move past this if we ever want to actually get somewhere. kaže:
Five years? Seriously?

Yeah, five years straight!

For five years straight, we’ve been hearing the same tired script from the same group of people: that everything not tied to gold is headed for a total meltdown. It’s always the same story. They predict the collapse, they point at the markets, they wait for the sky to fall, and yet, here we are. Still waiting.Gold is surging. It’s happening.

Five years down, and we’re stuck listening to the same nonsense for another five. Honestly, I'm exhausted.

Look, I’ve been bullish on the stock market for a while now, but let's be clear: it isn't because of the fundamentals. The market is stuck in a massive secular bear trend. My conviction comes down to one thing: my absolute faith in Ben’s willingness to just start printing money whenever he feels like it.

A good chunk of this comes down to the money printing, sure, but you also can't ignore how much better things look compared to that absolute disaster back in the fall of 2008. It's a different game entirely.

You really think the stock market wouldn't have imploded long ago if they weren't printing money like there's no tomorrow? Honestly, look at the numbers. It’s all a house of cards held together by the Fed's endless supply of freshly inked paper. Without that constant injection of liquidity, the whole thing would be hitting the floor right about now. I mean, just look at what happened during the last few scares—without those massive stimulus rounds, we'd be staring at a total meltdown. It's a rigged game, plain and simple.

I don't think so. It would definitely take a massive hit—no doubt about that—but it wouldn't trigger a total collapse.

We’ve become completely addicted to printing money. It’s a cycle that never ends. Can we actually just keep hitting that "print" button forever without oil prices absolutely skyrocketing? I mean, think about it. Every time the Fed starts pumping more liquidity into the system, everything gets squeezed. You can't just manufacture value out of thin air indefinitely without eventually hitting a wall where energy costs catch up to you. It feels like we're running a race on a treadmill that's accelerating, and we're all just praying the belt doesn't snap.

Look, we’ve been watching oil prices dance around for four years now. It goes up, it crashes, it climbs back up again—it’s a constant cycle. But let’s be real: we're mostly just hovering between $90 and $110 a barrel. That is nowhere near the $150 madness we saw back in the summer of 2008. We aren't even in the same ballpark.

Patrick Moore3 said:I’m telling you, gold is hitting $7,500 easy. I know you believe that, and honestly, everyone else on this board does too. But here's the kicker—nobody actually knows when. Is it happening at the 1g level? The 5g? Maybe the 100g bars? We all know the price is headed north, but without a timeline, what good is our credibility?

I’ve been watching these analysts for a while now, and I can't shake the feeling that Sinclair just has the most incredible track record. Sure, he misses the mark on the exact timing all the time... but his excuse is always the same: those crooked bankers are manipulating the markets, but they won't be able to hold it much longer. He’s been preaching about a gold bull market since the 70s. Look, if you've been playing the markets for 40 years and you're constantly calling the same direction, eventually, you're gotta be right, right?

That pretty much sums up this whole debate. Sure, it’ll go up eventually, but only God knows when it’ll actually hit those levels. And who knows? Maybe it won't even happen. Half the people pushing this "market manipulation" narrative are nothing but skeptics who don't see gold as a true store of value, but just some tool for "manipulation, robbery, and greed."😁