Posts by quiettrucker12

Looks like the Dollar is losing its steam. I’m getting back into coal stocks—they're sitting at some pretty deep discounts right now. Honestly, I think that dip to 1635 was just the first floor I was looking for, especially since I was bracing for 1600.

neondriver5 said:If you're looking to speculate, now might be the window. If everything plays out according to the current trend, I wouldn't be surprised to see gold climb back toward the $1,750–$1,800 per ounce range within the next two to three weeks.
If I had the capital on hand, I’d be buying right this second, but all I can do is offer my take.

My take? It hits 1600 first, maybe climbs to 1650 by the end of the month, and then we get a total meltdown through April and early May. If that scenario holds, the big question is whether the floor settles above or below 1520.

Anthony Evans78 said:Yeah, unemployment would be north of 22% if they measured it the way they did twenty years ago instead of using the current BLS methods. Did you know their model ignores "discouraged workers"—the people who just gave up looking for work and get wiped from the stats entirely? Check out shadowstats.com if you want a real look at how disastrous the US economy actually is.
The NYSE is losing its mind because the Federal Reserve keeps printing dollars relentlessly, pumping all that newly minted cash into stocks and inflating a massive bubble. No real capital is fleeing into precious metals yet. Real money hasn't even entered the fray, but once it does, we’re going to see prices skyrocket and a massive shortage of physical metals.
For the billionth time, gold can only go up in an environment like this—zero interest rates, a shrinking economy, absurd amounts of dollar and fiat printing, rising unemployment, a dead housing market, bank insolvencies, and a world drowning in debt, from the average citizen to local governments and sovereign nations. But since we aren't living in a free market, but rather one of constant intervention, we get nonsense like Alice in Wonderland, where the Federal Reserve announces a $500 billion injection and gold somehow drops by $70.
It’s hilarious that you’re labeling me as having a certain "mindset" just because I believe gold can only move higher. You clearly don't see the largest bubble in history—US government bonds—on the verge of bursting. When that bubble pops, the value of all those papers will plummet to zero. Unlike physical gold. Even if gold's price dips temporarily, its purchasing power will still dwarf everything else.

That’s not true—it can't "only" go up because it's been sliding for a while now. We likely won't see a major capital influx into precious metals until we hit the third phase of a bull market; I've said that countless times. The point is, we're living in March 2012, not March 2013. Globally, sure, we're in a bull market, but we're currently in a correction or just crawling out of one. Either way, if we're exiting a correction, expect a long period of sitting flat, catching our breath, or consolidating.

Anthony Evans78 said:What kind of capital flight from precious metals are you even talking about? You honestly think someone dumped their gold and silver and caused this crash? What universe are you living in? 🙂
It’s mind-boggling to me that precious metal prices are tanking while Bernanke claims interest rates will stay at zero through the end of 2014. Everything else he said is just pure nonsense.
The stock market rally, the frantic chasing... it's just sheep running from one side of the field to the other. This stopped making sense a long time ago. Stocks are only climbing because of the endless free money being pumped out by the Federal Reserve.
How can you call this a real market when Apple makes up 75% of the NASDAQ and is larger than the entire retail sector combined? They talk about a recovery, but nobody's actually seeing it—food stamp usage is at an all-time high, unemployment is sitting north of 22%, and the housing market is completely dead.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44025672609

The S&P 500 has surged 30% since October 2011, while gold hasn't moved an inch. The stock market has gone absolutely nuts, while miners—which are stocks themselves and usually follow the trend—have cratered back to August 2010 levels. Translation: money is fleeing the precious metals sector and flooding into equities. If this vertical rally in stocks keeps up over the next few weeks, the market is going to pop, and at that point, both miners and gold will take an even harder hit. Gold is reacting even more negatively to the Dollar than I anticipated, so we can't rule out a further correction—we'd need to see it slip below 1520. I'm not betting on that scenario right now, but it's definitely on the table.

Anthony Evans78 said:What kind of capital flight from precious metals are you even talking about? You honestly think someone dumped their gold and silver and caused this crash? What universe are you living in? 🙂
It’s mind-boggling to me that precious metal prices are tanking while Bernanke claims interest rates will stay at zero through the end of 2014. Everything else he said is just pure nonsense.
The stock market rally, the frantic chasing... it's just sheep running from one side of the field to the other. This stopped making sense a long time ago. Stocks are only climbing because of the endless free money being pumped out by the Federal Reserve.
How can you call this a real market when Apple makes up 75% of the NASDAQ and is larger than the entire retail sector combined? They talk about a recovery, but nobody's actually seeing it—food stamp usage is at an all-time high, unemployment is sitting north of 22%, and the housing market is completely dead.

That's because you're convinced gold can only go up. Gold was clearly in a correction that might not even be finished yet, but you're still stuck in the mindset of that massive two-and-a-half-year bull run.

Anthony Evans78 said:What kind of capital flight from precious metals are you even talking about? You honestly think someone dumped their gold and silver and caused this crash? What universe are you living in? 🙂
It’s mind-boggling to me that precious metal prices are tanking while Bernanke claims interest rates will stay at zero through the end of 2014. Everything else he said is just pure nonsense.
The stock market rally, the frantic chasing... it's just sheep running from one side of the field to the other. This stopped making sense a long time ago. Stocks are only climbing because of the endless free money being pumped out by the Federal Reserve.
How can you call this a real market when Apple makes up 75% of the NASDAQ and is larger than the entire retail sector combined? They talk about a recovery, but nobody's actually seeing it—food stamp usage is at an all-time high, unemployment is sitting north of 22%, and the housing market is completely dead.

NYSE

Mining stocks were this low back in August 2010, and here we are again right in the middle of this massive stock market rally. Capital is fleeing private equity for equities, but apparently, it’s skipping over the miners entirely.

analogharbor44 said:I’ve got a feeling we aren't seeing those massive metal gains this year. These big-bank types always find a way to mask what's actually happening. The market looks green, but honestly, it'll stay that way right up until the presidential elections.
They're the ones pulling all the strings. Personally, I don't see them ever truly separating physical assets from paper ones because I doubt we're headed for hyperinflation or some massive panic-buying spree in metals. Still, you've gotta stay sharp. It’s pretty wild watching the Federal Reserve run these stress tests on the major US banks. Where are they even getting the data for those tests, and why bother if the economy is supposedly bouncing back?

That’s just how bull markets work. After a massive 2.5-year run, you get a correction. Honestly, the correction is probably done—assuming we don't dip below 1520. I'm not even going to touch the "what happens next" conversation until we stay firmly above 1520. Once that's settled, expect a breather. We'll see consolidation before the next leg up, and that sideways movement could easily drag on for six months, a year, or longer.

So, gold hit 1650. It’s reacting to the rising USD even harder than I anticipated. If we don't see it sooner, I'm expecting a bounce right around the 300 DMA (roughly 1600). That little window where the USD dips and gold bounces could be the perfect setup for a quick play on mining stocks—they’re tanking right now and looking like they're hovering near their December lows. The real fun starts after that bounce, though, maybe toward the end of the month. If the stock market suddenly craters then, we might just see this correction continue. Right now, gold is stuck in a corner because everyone dumped their cash into the stock market. Everything is sprinting toward a parabolic move—look at Apple and the rest of the market—and like every parabola, it’s eventually going to pop.

😁 Here’s the thing: we aren't actually talking about gold right now. Gold is just sitting on the sidelines, watching the chaos unfold in the bigger markets. It just finished its correction and is trying to find its footing again, which—let's be honest—is going to take some time.

The USD, specifically the Ben Bernanke, has broken through that "magic" level around 80.15 or 80.12 and is just hovering there. But the stock market shows zero interest in correcting itself. If the S&P 500 keeps charging ahead like this:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p95828018616

Ben Bernanke:

http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/chart...ndex24hour.php

then we might see some downward pressure on the USD.

Personally, I think gold at 1675 (it even touched 1660 today) is a fair price for anyone buying physical bullion. Even if the dollar takes a hit—which would likely require a stock market correction, a scenario I find highly questionable—gold dropping significantly below 1600 seems unlikely. That said, anything under 1600 would be an absolute steal. So, current prices are fine. Looking at the big picture, prices should probably be slightly lower in a month or so, but if you're buying physical for the long haul, that doesn't really matter.

The real issue is that nobody knows what the stock market is going to do next. If we see a major correction and Ben Bernanke lets the USD run all the way up to the high 87s or 88s (triggering Quantitative Easing), then gold might face some short-term pain.

One more thing: despite the stock market hitting insane highs, mining stocks—who are shareholders too—are dirt cheap. The HUI is sitting below 500 (at 497.5), which is incredibly low. Most miners usually follow the broader market unless they manage to decouple and track gold, but right now, they are scraping the bottom and hunting for new lows.

This gold price (hitting near 1660 today) paired with these massive stock prices is a shock to many. Compared to the stock market, gold is a total disappointment right now.

The stock market just pushed the DXY back under our target level. Now the Dollar might actually be in trouble.

Finally, DXY broke past 80.15... if it hits 81.5, the path is wide open. Now we wait to see how much this rattles gold versus silver. It’ll probably take them about a week to adjust, assuming this isn't the actual bottom.

I honestly feel like the next year or so might just be a massive, featureless void. We’re looking at a boring period of consolidation and a breather before the real story picks up again—at least when it comes to metals, especially gold. Things are going to look much better in the US; the Dollar will likely strengthen, while the rest of the world just gets used to dealing with whatever mess is happening over in Europe...

ironstag8 said:Here is something for those of you playing around with fiat and debating whether gold is a bubble or a balloon.
http://www.oenb.at/en/ueber_die_oenb...tion_coins.jsp

The inflation of the money supply was an inevitable consequence of the wars, one which aggravated the social tensions and economic problems in the country. The citizens lost 90 % of their wealth on account of the hyperinflation caused by the excessive printing of money, the redistribution of incomes, the outflow of assets abroad, and the monetary reconstruction which followed.

If this isn't the absolute prime time to focus on preserving actual wealth, then I honestly don't know when in human history such a moment existed. When we look at the potential collapse of yet another fiat currency—like the US dollar—on the horizon (whether that's in 1, 2, 5, or 10 years, the timeline is secondary), playing games with that paper is essentially playing with fire. You’re going to get burned, plain and simple. In this light, trying to weigh gold or silver against a mere scrap of paper doesn't make much sense—it's actually quite a gamble to sit at that particular casino table, especially when every single table seems rigged with magnets and other little tricks pulled by the house management. 😉
The only legitimate way to preserve wealth is through physical gold and silver; everything else is just shouting into the wind.

So miners don't provide value? They’re the ones actually "producing" the gold. Besides, the reality is that paper assets and physical holdings haven't really decoupled yet—and they might never.

The New York Stock Exchange is still keeping gold afloat. We’re heading into a wild stretch where prices are going to swing wildly, though I expect a slight downward drift overall. If the DXY follows its projected path and we avoid some sudden, massive stock market crash, the bottom for this volatile period should hit sometime late April or early May. That doesn't mean things won't stay messy afterward—it just means once we clear that window, we probably won't see prices drop below $1,520 again before this bull market ends. I'm betting the floor stays north of $1,520; realistically, we're looking at something closer to $1,600. There’s a slim chance it dips below $1,520, but honestly, that feels unlikely and just 😁 complicates the math.

By the way, the DXY hasn't broken below 80.15 yet, so we're still just sitting tight and waiting.

Roughly 85%, maybe 75% if you want a conservative estimate on the odds... assuming the Dollar behaves how we expect. Keep an eye on whether the DXY can break past the 80.10 or 80.15 mark—right now, it looks unstoppable. Watch this space:

http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/chart...rindex5day.php

Look, if the DXY breaks that threshold, that's your signal to stay out of the market.

..... "All information will be provided on a need-to-know basis," as Frank would say in *The Woman in Red*.

If you don't trust the Dollar, just ask the miners. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c= They're dropping like flies right now.

We’re technically in a bull market, so sudden spikes are always on the table, though the chances feel slim at the moment. We might hit bottom in a month or six weeks, but don't be surprised if we see some sucker rallies in the meantime.

I wouldn't rush it if I were you. There’s zero urgency right now. In fact, we probably need to wait until the DXY clears 80.15. The stock market correction and the Dollar rally are just getting warmed up—gold has barely started its slide. Honestly, I thought silver would put up a better fight than this...

Pretty much, though in this case I’m not talking about a recovery—I'm looking at the bull market extending for another six months to a year before things turn.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-...2-03-01-159310

If the Dollar breaks through, we’ve got our proof that a massive USD bottom is being engineered. If that happens, selling off miners won't make much sense—you might actually need to hold them through a long "valley," basically riding out the entire upcoming correction in both the stock market and gold. A simultaneous hit to precious metals and equities would be brutal for miners. Personally, I’ve bet everything on that specific scenario playing out, even if the confirmation comes via a DXY spike above that level.

This forum is currently in its third phase, though it doesn't really change anything 😍. I'm just going to sit tight and wait for the Dollar to hit 80.1 😁

Hold your horses for a second and let’s see if the Dollar can break past that February peak (around 80.15). It really ought to. If it clears that hurdle, we'll have our confirmation that 78 was a massive bottom for the Dollar. That would set us up for another sweet buying opportunity toward the end of April.

Here’s the Dollar Index (DXY):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p57749449548

Of course, nothing is ever that simple. We need to keep an eye on the upcoming correction in the stock market:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62908959218

If we hit a full-blown crash, things get messy fast and everything accelerates. But, if it’s just a nice, slow slide—one that makes shorting impossible—then everything should play out exactly like my plan above.

It’ll be interesting to see how silver (and it will) handles this scenario. Personally, I don't think it'll dip below 30 again, even though these 34 levels look pretty good. Honestly, if you're a long-term buy-and-hold type, I don't get why anyone bothers with gold when silver exists. I’ll probably finally start building out my "core" physical silver position sometime this spring and scale it up over time. Once the third phase of this bull market kicks in, trading gets wild. You'll see these sudden, crazy swings—mostly to the upside, obviously.