Posts by quiettrucker12

We’re still waiting. Gold needs to clear $1,700 before we can officially call this an uptrend. On the flip side, if it slips below $1,660—last week's floor—we've got a problem.

Ashley Thompson10 said:I honestly think anyone trying technical analysis on precious metals is just fighting a losing battle against massive market manipulation. Some interesting news to chew on: yesterday, an entity like the Silver Institute scooped up over 500 tons of physical silver. Meanwhile, in Japan, the Prime Minister is moving to strip the central bank of its independence, while Russia is essentially printing Yen to fund their growth and national debt—exactly what our friend Nostradamus has been warning us about for ages. The Federal Reserve is ramping up primary issuance, too. Over here in the States, we’re seeing economic data being massaged to fit a "wishful thinking" narrative of positivity. In Spain, they're dipping into pension funds to cover state debt. And the Chinese? They’ve always printed whatever they needed, and they’ll double down now to maintain control during this period of cooling demand.

Once the Federal Reserve starts devaluing the Dollar, the Japanese Yen and the Chinese currency will inevitably be crushed under the weight of it all. Eventually, the Spanish will bleed their pension funds dry and have no choice but to beg the Federal Reserve to print enough to cover their deficits. When that happens, the Dollar will follow the path of the other major currencies. Even the Swiss Franc, which is tied to the Dollar, will go down with the ship.

If this isn't a fantastic medium-term setup for precious metals, then I don't know anything about football.

Right now, that’s true. But if gold manages to break free, the rally is going to be way more aggressive than if things had just played out normally. If the market were acting sane, prices wouldn't have dipped below the November 5th level ($1,673). Now, the narrative is shifting: 1. once—or if—(we see a breakout above the downtrend line from late Nov to early Jan, a release from the 75-week moving average, and most importantly, a move past that weekly high of $1,696 from the end of October), gold will launch harder than it would have if it had just climbed steadily after November 5th. 2. Any spring correction should be much shallower since everything is being front-loaded right now.

The fact that yesterday's solid jobs report didn't push the price below the 10-day moving average is a huge win for gold. As soon as traders saw there wasn't an immediate crash, they jumped back in, and we got that upward nudge.

Gold hit $1,696 yesterday, checking off all the boxes needed to confirm our January 4th target of $1,626. In a standard scenario, we should see a push toward $1,730, followed by a minor few-dollar dip before the climb toward $1,800 continues. We'll see if the bears try one last desperate grab today. Oh, and gold finally broke above the 75 WMA.

The goal here was to paint the bigger picture (personally, I don't see gold dropping below $1,626 anytime soon). If this isn't your thing, feel free to scroll past.

It’s just to get a clearer picture of things. Right now, it’s hovering at $1,696, but we just saw a breakout from the channel today—a clean trendline breach.

There it is—it just broke through that downward trendline at roughly $1,676. Next stop is $1,696 if we want actual confirmation that we've hit bottom.

The next big hurdle is the 10 WMA ($1,691 for Gold 100 WMA Gold, $31.80 for silver).

Still no confirmation that January 4th was the bottom at $1526. To get actual proof, we need to see a break above the trendline sitting around $1678, or better yet, a move past the high from the Dec 31–Jan 4 week at $1696.

Until that trendline snaps, the local trend is officially down.

The Dollar is looking incredibly weak against almost everything, except Gene—and let’s be real, his slide can't last forever. Commercial players have been aggressively slashing their long positions on the Dollar and piling into shorts.

For Gold to actually rally, the Dollar needs to clear resistance near the 79 and 200 WMA:

200 weekly Dollar average

Gold back above the 100 WMA:

Gold 100 WMA Gold

Gold hit the 500 DMA on January 4th:

Gold 500 daily average

Gold is riding above the 500 DMA and currently sitting above the 200 DMA:

Gold 500-day and 200-day averages

Silver is trading above the 150 WMA:

Silver 150 weekly average

There seems to be a correlation here between Gold and corporate bonds:

gold:corporate bonds 200 WMA

silver:corporate bonds 300 WMA

Looking at the gold-to-corporate bond ratio paints a different picture regarding this correction; it suggests the bottom might have actually occurred back in July. That said, both the gold-dollar and gold-DJCB ratios clearly show the downward correction broke in August, signaling an uptrend from that point forward.

-------------
Bottom line: Gold shouldn't drop below $1626. The headache is that even though everything points to $1626 being the floor, nobody is buying. Right now, there's just a vacuum—no buyers, no sellers. We'll see if the needle moves next week. For now, this fits the expectation of a bottom around January 2nd (or early Jan 2013) in the $1610-$1625 range, but anything goes until we see a breakout above that trendline and $1696.

Robert Vaughn10 said:A very good day. If this trend holds, things are looking encouraging.
Following a brutal correction that felt like a freefall into an abyss, we’ve seen a reversal. Granted, it hasn't reclaimed all lost ground, but it was a solid $20 move from today's lows. The faster and more frequent these bounces become following heavy sell-offs, the higher the probability of another major rally. I want to see more days where we gain at least $20, and even more days where corrections are wiped out almost immediately. That would signal the bulls are finally seizing control. But let's be clear: these moves need to happen more often, and they need to stay at that $20 threshold.
One more thing... if gold and silver weren't significant, they wouldn't be under such intense pressure right now as they attempt to defend the dollar following the latest news on quantitative easing. This morning, it felt as though the market had completely lost its compass, driven purely by panic. And when people start acting out of fear, they tend to make poor decisions and miscalculate the path ahead.

Sure, that’s one way to look at it. But honestly? It's probably not the only explanation out there.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Gold and silver are finishing strong. Gold is sitting just a few bucks under this morning's mark, while silver actually managed to flip into the green. That correction? It’s nearly erased. If we hold these levels through the close, it's a pretty encouraging sign. Moving forward, I want to see some actual volatility. Even if prices dip during sharp corrections, movement is better than stagnation.

If we want to prove that today’s $1,626 was actually the bottom, we need to see prices break above $1,695.50 next week without dipping back below that $1,626 support level. We’ll probably have our answer by Monday. If gold manages to clear $1,695.50 or even hits $1,700, expect a massive rally to follow immediately.

The good news? We closed $30 above today's low and finished north of the 100 WMA. Even better, the miners stayed significantly above their December 20th levels for some reason (HUI 418 : 426).

Edit:

Let’s be brutally honest here—anything under $1,800 is irrelevant, and honestly, anything north of $1,526 doesn't move the needle either. It would be great if we could just keep everything above 100 WMA and call this the floor, but if you want gold, you need to be looking at $1,800+.

lonehawk5 said:At this rate, I’ll probably end up being labeled the stubborn idiot here...😁
People have been attacking me and throwing insults over my trades, but meanwhile, I’m quietly building a fortress for the bulls.☕
We’ll just have to see if this actually pays off for me in the end...
I haven't dumped a massive chunk of my portfolio in yet, but I still have some breathing room until I hit that $530 mark.
The plan is to put about 20% of the account on the side for the bulls. In the meantime, I'll try to squeeze out some profit from daily swings... if I can get lucky.😉

With leverage or straight up?

The 100 WMA just got breached, so we’re officially flying blind now. Personally, I see two ways this plays out: either we bottom out sometime next week somewhere north of 1600, or we just keep sliding until the end of the month.

dustyheron5 said:🤣

He’s likely pissed off at Marijan Filipović—he won't pay out a fair, unlocked rate.😍 The value of BlackRock shares...

Besides that, I hold stock cartridges on the global market—way more than Nenek does... though he’s really just playing the local small-fry game. 😉

That doesn't change the fact that you're holding silver and you're in the wrong. Risky play, risky guy... you've got some "non-transparent interests" going on.

Welcome back, buddy... I guess that native American really ticked Bakić off with all that silver.

Gold is sitting right at the crossroads; whether it's heading up or down is the big question now.

There's an 80% chance the bottom hit right at the 100-week moving average ($1636) back on December 20th.

The 100 WMA

The major floor before this was in May; forget about November 5th. I honestly thought we’d see a little more downside in the next ten days—maybe dipping to $1610 or $1625—but it looks like that ship has sailed.

It’s a weird setup. On December 20th, the sellers just vanished, but the buyers didn't exactly rush in to take the reins either.

If gold breaks past $1705, that’s our first real confirmation. For the cautious types out there, watch for
a breakout above $1725.

graniteviper37 said:Let's be real—that’s not even the middle class. In the US, there's been this running idea for ages that once an individual starts pulling in over $250,000 a year, you've crossed into the wealthy territory. Even Barack Obama’s unofficial benchmark was around $200k for a single person—which is $250k for a couple—and honestly, according to some polls, most Americans think the line is drawn at $150,000. If those folks are the "wealthy," then where the hell is the actual middle class?...

If you ask some theorists, this whole "impossible deal" drama was basically scripted and agreed upon behind closed doors not too long ago.
The whole point is to look clean in front of the voters while setting the stage to push through a massive, totally new budget control act that fundamentally reshapes everything on multiple levels.

And yeah, technically they didn't fall off the cliff—because that "fiscal cliff" is really just the economic fallout from being unable to agree on a decision in the first place.

Could be. But there’s a reason for it: certain individuals and special interest groups are lining their pockets. It’s one thing to guess that everything is irrelevant, but it's another thing entirely to have the exact roadmap and intel. In the trading world, the gap between the big whales and the retail guys isn't really about skill or smarts—it's all about who gets the information first.

Robert Vaughn10 said:What bigger forces? What specifically are you getting at?
Speak up, but watch yourself—being out in Utah, you might get monitored by some "supercomputer." Careful what you say...😂
And one more thing: apparently, all tax legislation has to originate in the House of Representatives, not the Senate. If that info is right, then the Senate basically violated the Constitution. It's hard to believe they weren't aware of that.
Who knows how this mess ends. The longer this standoff between the two chambers drags on, the higher the chance of a downgrade, which could have implications far beyond the USA. This could stretch all the way into March, especially since Obamacare is up for renewal at year-end. Funding that is going to be a massive headache. Throw in the fact that the Japanese seem hell-bent on weakening the yen, and Merkel claiming the crisis is nowhere near over...
As for the USA, regardless of the outcome, it looks like middle-class tax hikes are becoming a reality. I doubt the Republicans will fight that specific part; they've been backed into a corner. However, if the bickering continues over other points—like that extra $200 billion I can see on the horizon—then yes, the deficit will likely hit $800 billion at the very least. Probably much more. Gold should move up, and silver logically follows...

Look at that recent sudden drop in the aftermarket on low volume right when things should have been heading up. They managed to pull off a correction that was supposed to happen back in the spring and somehow shifted it three months earlier. Just like every other failed attempt to prop up prices, this will probably just result in an even bigger move in the opposite direction. Unless there’s some third factor pulling strings behind the scenes, but I doubt it.

The big issue isn't the manipulation itself—it's the timing.

By 2013, they'll likely have "exhausted" the momentum needed to break the $2,000 mark, meaning gold should catch its stride and see much more significant growth in 2014.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Washington, D.C. has officially fallen off the fiscal cliff. Or at least, that's the official line. The Senate voted to maintain current tax rates for anyone earning under $400k. This means the middle class might actually dodge a tax hike—assuming the House of Representatives agrees during their meeting this afternoon. We'll see, though I doubt the Republican majority would dare vote against this; they aren't about to hand the middle class a tax increase. Spending cuts are also being pushed back, but only by two months, right when our ability to borrow more hits its limit. If things stay on this trajectory, especially regarding middle-class taxes, the deficit looks set to hit at least $800 billion by the end of March, depending on what happens in two months. The math is still being finalized, but in my view, this is long-term bullish for gold and silver. We have to wait and see what March brings, but I highly doubt they’ll risk not raising the debt ceiling; they’d go bankrupt instantly. This trend could suggest a medium-term shift in how things play out. Printing money out of thin air without any long-term sterilization will eventually lead to inflation. It might not happen overnight, but it's coming.
To be honest, I briefly thought they were going to tighten the belt. Now? That's off the table. They've decided to blow the bubble until it pops.
All things considered, gold should clear $2,000, and silver ought to hit at least $40 by 2013. Though, predicting silver is always a thankless task.

They decided to loosen the reins a long time ago. There's no turning back now. Ben basically kicked off round three of QE with no expiration date, giving himself the green light to pump in as much cash as he sees fit. In the context of a 12-year gold bull market, missing the fiscal cliff is practically a rounding error. Politicians don't think like we do—the Senate passed that deal 89 to 8, while QE3 went through 11 to 1.

Of course, everyone will claim gold surged because of the fiscal cliff once the new QE kicks in... I don't buy it. There are much bigger forces at play here.

Now we wait to see which day liquidity decides to flee into the stock market. We'll find out if that triggers a final bottom for precious metals or if the 100-week moving average holds steady.

Still waiting for gold to take that final dip toward the $1,610–$1,625 range. Probably happening next week, or maybe the one after (Jan 7–11).

By the end of 2013, I’m calling gold north of $2,000.

Robert Vaughn10 said:How does the fiscal cliff look to everyone right now? Under the most optimistic forecasts, we might cut the deficit in half—down to about $550 billion—which would shave roughly 3% off the GDP. The same analysts predicted a 4% growth rate for 2014, which seems unrealistic once you factor in actual inflation. In my view, you need to add at least 1-2% to those GDP numbers and another $100 billion to the deficit, bringing it to $650 billion. That’s still a massive deficit, and the economy will likely sink by a real rate of 3% to 5% of GDP. That is a serious recession. According to the Government, it might look like 0% if they use even more liberal inflation metrics. On the flip side, a smaller deficit should strengthen the dollar from a government spending standpoint. Then there is the question of how long they will persist with Qe given all the other pressures. With the fiscal cliff looming, unemployment will likely rise by at least 1%, and since inflation will be somewhat masked, the Fed will have a free hand to continue monetizing as much as they want because they won't hit their target benchmarks for unemployment or inflation...
The bottom line: taxes are going up for the middle class in various forms. The middle class is going to get squeezed hard. The entire economy will feel it too.
It’s a dangerous cocktail of deflationary and inflationary pressures. It makes things incredibly difficult for small investors; losing some ground feels almost inevitable. If the deficit drops significantly as forecasted, gold might correct below $1,500. Maybe Jim Rogers actually has a point there. Sure, that is still higher than my entry price, but when I account for inflation, I haven't really come out ahead...
Silver could potentially drop below $25 in that scenario. If the ratio falls below 60, or especially if it climbs above 65, I’m buying. Looking at a 7-10 year horizon, I don't see precious metal prices being significantly lower in terms of these volatile currencies. Eventually, they'll be begging for more stimulus and more money printing. I won't even get started on healthcare and pension costs. Those two alone drive the deficit, not to mention defense spending, which most Republicans refuse to touch.
We ought to be cutting and taxing aggressively to protect the dollar's long-term value. This is serious, but it isn't enough. It is impossible to meet all current obligations and debts using today's purchasing power of the dollar...
However, if they want to stretch things out and temporarily blunt the loss of purchasing power, they can. That might mean gold loses its momentum to break above $2,000 in the near term... When calculating gold's trajectory, you absolutely have to factor in Europe. Deflationary pressures and austerity have been brutal. Greece, Italy, and France are slashing spending, and Spain is doing something similar; they are all struggling with official unemployment rates north of 25%. Right now, it doesn't look like gold is headed much higher. The only exception is if the crisis deepens and tax revenues tank, making deficits larger and the need for printing even greater. I doubt they'll allow the contraction to exceed 5% in either the US or Europe; they'll aim for a mix...
It is also anyone's guess how the market will react to an announced US downgrade if no deal is reached. Gold might be viewed as a safe haven, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. It is more likely that stocks will take a hit since they are sitting at very high levels, especially in the US, while the dollar should strengthen regardless of what the agencies say. Logic dictates that, though predicting the short-term movement in this mix is tough. As I mentioned, logic doesn't always apply to this market.
Of course, all this speculation becomes moot if Washington actually reaches a deal. Otherwise, Obama will have a hard time explaining to his middle-class constituents why so many taxes are being hiked. But then again, who cares when he doesn't have to face reelection...😉

🙂👍

Robert Vaughn10 said:We’re looking at a $600 billion fiscal cliff. Even the Democratic leader in the Senate is sounding the alarm on this one.
Solutions might be hammered out over the next few months, though it remains to be seen if Republicans will agree to any middle-class tax cuts once those increases kick in on January 1st...
This fiscal cliff involves a laundry list of tax hikes, including property taxes. It's the same old symptom everywhere: raising taxes on everyone—even those with minimal assets—just to pad the treasury. I doubt it'll be enough; the long-term unfounded liabilities are simply too massive. However, if we do fall off this cliff, there is a slight chance that inflation might actually stay somewhat subdued for the next three years.
Predicting anything beyond that is difficult. But, if they were to scrap Obamacare, trim pensions slightly, or force foreign investors to take a haircut on bond payouts, the game could potentially continue for quite a while...
That move could send gold into a correction, making it less popular. We might see more paper losses in the near term. If that scenario plays out, I'll be waiting for a dip in gold—and especially silver, which could drop quite deeply. During a recession, the gold-to-silver ratio tends to rise, meaning silver ends up being the undervalued play...
That said, the ratio would need to hit at least 65 before I consider entering the market. This tightening is serious, but likely insufficient given the scale of unfounded liabilities and the reality that the credit pipes will eventually have to be opened again. A good comparison for these austerity measures is Europe. In Greece, they saw wage cuts of up to 30%; in Italy, Mario Monti introduced a tax on primary residences that the current left-leaning leadership is now trying to roll back. The French are doing similar cuts, and their proposal for a 75% tax on the wealthy is particularly wild. It's common knowledge that cumulative taxes can swallow over half of one's wealth, but seeing a single tax rate hit 75% is something I haven't encountered yet.
Summing it all up, there is a clear global trend toward taxing citizens more heavily and stripping away rights, all in an attempt to stave off high inflation for a little while longer. Angela Merkel made it clear: "Europeans should expect a lot of hard work and sweat." This is the current trend, which makes a significant surge in gold in the immediate future seem less likely. Still, I remain moderately optimistic on a 5-10 year horizon because precious metals represent real money, not just a hollow promise of purchasing power that can't be kept. Not to mention, monetary inflation is still far too high. Personally, I've grown tired of seeing silver up about 50% and gold up 25%; it's hard to call them bad investments, but perhaps they aren't quite as stellar as I originally thought.

😲

darksurfer37 said:I think you already mentioned those November/December numbers—at least from what I managed to gather while reading through everything. By the time March rolls around, the target for May or June will probably still be sitting right in that 1870-1880 range, I guess.

Breaking out of this consolidation takes time. You can't just call the exact moment it happens. 1800 has become a major psychological level; we might see it stall at 1800 again in February or March. Back at the start of the year when we were at 1520, I mentioned we’d need at least a year and a half of consolidation following a correction like that.