Posts by Casey James56

Does anyone actually have a link to this ridiculous rule about losing 10 points or more??? Based on that logic, if the Lakers lose by 4, 5, or 6 tonight, is the whole roster playing for Haribo gummy bears or something?

Eric Fox7 said:It’s because Verona basically has their ticket to the MLS playoffs locked up (since Sassuolo and Livorno are playing each other, neither can catch them).
The same logic applies to Empoli—if they lose and Livorno pulls off an upset at Sassuolo, there won't even be a playoff bracket to worry about because the gap between third and fourth would be a massive 10 points.

Personally, I’d probably just play the single unit if the bet hasn't been pulled from the local sportsbooks yet.

1 x 2
is sitting at the local sportsbook at 1,25 12

James Taylor3 said:I’ve got no clue who’s actually walking on thin ice here, but I caught a headline this morning suggesting a huge chunk of the Bayern roster might be sidelined for the championship game if they pick up a yellow card today.

Edit:

Alright, I went digging: Five different visiting players are staring down a potential suspension for the finals. If they grab another yellow, guys like Lahm, Martinez, Dante, Gustavo, and Gomez could end up watching the showdown against Dortmund from the stands at Wembley instead of being out on the pitch.

Cheers!
Betting on Schweinsteiger to grab a yellow at 4x odds. Since Martinez is basically one mistake away from being benched, the "Piggy" is probably going to have to step up and do the dirty work for us.
Dani Alves yellow card at 4x odds. Honestly, I think Alaba and Ribery will get under his skin enough to trigger a booking; he doesn't need much to lose his cool.😁

They've also got Jordi Alba on the board, though he’s sitting out today due to previous yellows. Probably just some shady money chasing a payout hoping someone gets subbed in for Alaba.

So, does anyone know if yellow cards carry over into the finals??? Because yesterday Ramos picked up a booking and the app was already flagging him as "misses next match." If they aren't wiping the slate clean for the championship game, does anyone actually have the scoop on who’s sitting on thin ice and might miss out if they grab another yellow?

James Taylor3, you’re seriously driving me crazy with these yellow card predictions. The odds are actually decent here—I’m riding with Modrić, Coentrao, Hummels, and Subotić. And yeah, I'm playing them all as singles!

Hummels 5.00
Subotić 4.50

With two defenders facing this much heat from the opening whistle, there’s a high probability at least one of them picks up a booking.

Modrić 5.00
Coentrao 4.50

If Modrić starts from minute one, he’ll likely be sitting deep as a defensive mid alongside Alonso, tasked with shutting down Dortmund's rhythm. As for Coentrao, he’s going to have his hands full dealing with Götze or Reus; if things go south for his side, don't be surprised if he ends up seeing yellow too. If even one of these four hits, we’re looking at a profit of +

DinamoZ-Istra 1961 Pula 2 13,x2 4,5,h01 x2 2,20

You rarely see value like this. I think everyone gets the gist when it comes to European Dinamo, and honestly, Istra—with that madman leading them from the sidelines (who, if you ask me, is easily the best manager in the American First Football League)—is capable of snatching a point against anyone if they get a little bit of luck and a score of 3. Since this pair is essentially a bonus bet, it smells like the usual trap set by bookies to lure people into "sure things." Even if Dinamo pulls off the win, I highly doubt it'll be with F2. Personally, I'm looking at h01 x2 2,20 as a 9/10.

Jacob Ruiz86 said:I’m with you on the first point, but I have to disagree with the bolded part. Seriously, don't ever go thinking the odds are unrealistic. It’s actually nearly impossible to spot an error in the lines; we don't even realize how much these sportsbooks actually know about every single matchup. A 1.70 line is perfectly legitimate—don't go assuming you've stumbled upon some mathematical glitch. And as for this "baiting" theory? It’s a myth. The only thing a sportsbook cares about is setting the exact right price to ensure their margin. There's no such thing as baiting, unless you count those "super tips" they float daily where they bump the odds up by a tiny 5% or 10% just to grab attention.

Alright, look, remember that Saturday game between Dinamo and Inter? Most books had a bonus tip at 1.25. That was pure bait. It was a total eye-catcher that tricked everyone into thinking it was a lock, and most people ended up hitting the F2 instead. As for mistakes in the odds, sure, they happen quite a bit, but why would the bookmaker bother reacting? They aren't going to move the line unless people start hammering the underdog. For instance, take that Monday friendly between Lech Poznan and Olympiakos. Lech plays in the Europa League on Thursday, and I happened to notice that the US betting markets were holding Olympiakos at 3.05. I thought about jumping on it, but then the line dropped to 2.5. The opening was closer to 3.9. I decided to pass, and of course, the bet hit.

Today's picks: Ludogorets X2, Vardar both teams to score, total over 3.5, combined odds 5.2

rapidhound19 said:We’ll see after the game if this was a total bait-and-switch or an actual gift. Right now, I’m treating it like a gift so I might actually pull the trigger, but if it turns out to be a trap, it won't be the first time a sportsbook has played me like a fiddle. 🙂

Look, this isn't some shady lure or a handout. It's just how the math works. You call it a "trap" if you're betting at 1.7 odds, but a real "gift" would be getting double your money back on a 2.45 line. I'm pretty sure they set the line at 2.5 for the Galaxy just so half the bettors wouldn't touch it. Seriously, people rely way too much on these ridiculous odds that don't mean anything in the real world. But hey, I hope I'm dead wrong and the Galaxy pulls off the win today! Personally? This smells like it's heading straight into overtime.