Silver is sitting at 33.17, and the Dollar just slipped to 1.312. Honestly, this whole thing smells like some massive "everything is fine" smoke screen being pumped out in the US to smooth things over for the elections—once the dust settles after the vote, though, it’s going to be a massive wake-up call. Come on guys, buy the dip, dip, dip. The economy is a total wreck, but sure, let's pretend Quantitative Easing is going to magically fix everything... yeah, right. I'm just waiting for these barbaric metals to drop a little more so I can snag some at a decent price.
analogharbor44 said:Look, I'm not a doomsayer. I just don't vibe with all this talk about everything collapsing. My bad if you took me the wrong way! I don't think things are going to go totally south like some people on here claim. Just saying.
I picked up 2 kg of silver last year and honestly, I'm not thrilled with how things are moving. Plus, seeing that 15% gets scooped up every year by folks like me, on top of what goes into jewelry... I feel like I missed the boat. Just being real with you guys.😢
Look, your strategy is flawed if you go all-in at once and then start beating yourself up when the market takes a dive a year later. That’s just bad math. You’re better off buying in chunks—wait for a dip, grab some more, and then hold steady. Silver is positioned for a massive run. Will it be higher in a year? Two? Three? Who knows. But over a 5 or 10-year horizon? It’s looking pretty damn likely. Of course, nothing in this world is a sure bet, but personally, I’d much rather park some cash in silver than dump it into tech stocks that could crater to zero overnight.
The golden rule is simple: don't touch money you actually need for rent or groceries. Only play with the extra cash—the stuff you don't know what to do with and can afford to let sit untouched for years.
That 15% supply squeeze? That’s actually a win for those of us holding physical metal. When mining output eventually hits a wall, that accumulated surplus is what’s going to fuel industrial demand. It means we'll probably see a steady, controlled climb rather than one crazy vertical spike. Which, frankly, is better—it lets you take profits in nice, manageable bites instead of trying to time a single peak.
Anthony Evans78 said:If you have to announce your arrival just to check on your gold, something smells fishy. Look, if you’re sitting on pounds of gold, you should have plenty of places within reach to stash it away. 😉
I read this story once on a German forum about some guy who buried a stash of gold coins out in the Canadian wilderness. He sold some land, used the cash to buy Maple Leafs at an ounce per unit—or whatever—and just dumped it in the woods. Maybe it was his land, maybe it wasn't; doesn't really matter. The point is he didn't trust banks and figured burying it was the safer bet.
Next time he showed up to dig it up, it was gone. Whether someone was tailing him or some guy with a metal detector stumbled onto it, nobody knows—but yeah, it was a total clusterfuck.
On another note, same German forum: they had this great breakdown of safes. They say a real safe weighs a couple hundred pounds when you pack it with cash, bolted into concrete, and even a few strong guys couldn't budge it. But what's the actual point? What are they afraid of? Two or three masked dudes show up, grab you by the throat, and say: "Open it or we start cutting—starting with your kid, then your wife"—real deep shit. What happens then?
You’ve got idiots going to prison because they decided to gun down a clerk at a gas station just to grab $5,000. If a guy like that realizes you've got way more than that waiting at home, what do you think he's willing to do?
That's why the smart move is to mix it up. Spread it out across two locations—keep one spot totally low-key with just some silver or a few hundred bucks tucked away in plain sight as bait, while the real heavy stuff is hidden properly in a solid safe. And don't go putting more than $20k in any one physical safe; put the rest in a bank vault or an allocated account. I'd much rather have them try to crack a Via Mat vault than mine—at least then my metals are insured against theft.
Ah, here we go again. Just another blatant advertisement dropped right in our laps. Though, I guess some people on this forum might actually find it interesting—now you guys can all jump on him. Honestly, I can't even be bothered to look into the company; maybe they’re legit, maybe they aren't. But the whole concept of storing tiny amounts of precious metals just feels fundamentally flawed to me. If someone is out here trying to buy gold at, what, $25 a month? That’s barely half a gram. You’ll end up paying more in storage fees than the actual gold is worth. What a joke.
Personally, I'm fine with a $75 annual storage fee if I'm holding $20,000 to $30,000 worth of metal. And frankly, having it sitting in an insured vault beats keeping it under my mattress any day, provided it's properly allocated. Anyway, looks like silver is starting to dip quite a bit. I'm just sitting back, waiting to see how low this thing goes before I load up on more.
dustyheron5 said:In short—Blythe Masters is worried that the Commercials might actually be right. They’ve taken aggressive short positions on silver, and there's a real possibility they aren't wrong—unlike the usual puppets giving advice out there...😁
If you truly believe they have the upper hand, then you should be shorting silver rather than going long. It's your call—your money...
Personally, I'm holding all my positions except for my SLWea short at $37.60 (if I recall the entry correctly)—if it drops significantly below that, I might look to buy back in... I could also take some profits on my AGQ today, since I'm sitting on a nice gain there; if I do that, I won't really care which direction the price moves next 😁
From what I can gather, we're looking at a massive short against stocks in the DJIA and Nasdaq 100, not a short against silver itself. If those stocks tank, precious metals should theoretically head north. Therefore, if you short silver, you're basically just begging to lose money rather than making any.
Fair point—I guess I should double-check the math.
European Union trade deficit in 2011 was $4.1 billion, then jumped to $7.6 billion in 2012. epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/.../6-17062011.../6-17062011-AP-EN.PDF epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY.../6.../6-16032012-AP-EN.PDF
So, we're looking at a difference of roughly six times. Economy size back in 2011: European Union: $15.65 trillion United States: $15.29 trillion
Basically, the European Union and the United States have almost identical GDPs. But let’s be real—GDP includes all sorts of fluff like lawyers, therapists, and a bunch of other nonsense that doesn't actually help much with trade or exports and carries some pretty questionable value. When you look strictly at manufacturing and actual trade power, the European Union is definitely outperforming the US.
There’s a pretty interesting angle to this whole Dollar vs Euro debate: it really comes down to who's going to blink first. The US is running this massive trade deficit, whereas the EU is a bit of a mixed bag—you've got Northern Europe exporting everything while Mediterranean countries import most of their stuff. But overall, the EU manages to cover its own demand for goods and materials through domestic production, while the US is basically stuck depending on Chinese people and others to supply them with goods in exchange for those greenbacks.
All the major currencies right now—Dollar, Euro, Pound, Renminbi, you name it—are essentially being "printed." Or, more accurately, we're seeing massive amounts of money being digitally generated without any real backing (well, if you count newly issued government bonds as backing). It feels like we're drifting toward that Nostradamus idea of funding a state budget through primary issuance—except, obviously, there are banks in the middle taking their cut, often state-run ones at that. Unless some miracle happens and the economy just takes off, it's a safe bet that cranking out new money will lead to inflation. I'm not talking about that crazy, hyperinflationary mess you saw in America, but we're looking at maybe 5%, 10%, or even 15% annual inflation—though they'll probably try to hide the true scale using some shady statistical gymnastics early on.
For now, I’m sticking with the Euro since my expenses are in Euros, and honestly, I find it more stable than the Dollar. If the Arabs & CO start selling oil for something other than USD—and hey, the Iranians are already doing it—then the US printing press won't be able to tax the entire world anymore. That would trigger even bigger trade issues because, frankly, the US won't have much left to pay for imports. They'll be forced to bring manufacturing back to the States, which is going to be an expensive, long-term headache. As it stands, the Fed is basically the biggest buyer of T-bills. Once the Chinese stop buying them, pretty much everyone else might follow suit.
The pension fund situation is also worth watching. Traditionally, one of the largest institutional investors stays well away from PM. Lately, though, they've been taking heavy hits on government bonds—which are supposed to be the "safe" bet, assuming you follow the legal mandates on where that capital can go. If they even direct a tiny fraction of their capital toward PM, it could send the price skyrocketing. Right now, they're struggling to find decent places to park money; between playing poker with the Greeks and worrying about the Spanish, they're facing actual negative interest rates from the Germans. At this rate, they'll be handing out starvation pensions.
dustyheron5 said:You're absolutely right—if Germany (and the rest of the world) enters a recession, it’s better to hold onto your ammunition, namely the dollar; though, once again, Benjamin isn't a fan of that🤣 and has been quite vocal about pushing us away from the dollar and toward risk-on assets...😁
No smart man joins forces with whatever evil power😛 ends up winning.😂
Regarding QE3, this pullback was entirely expected. We'll see where things stand with metals around October 10th. It was similar last time during QE2—metals rallied leading up to the announcement, followed by a minor correction immediately after, before resuming a fierce rally... I see no reason why this time would be any different.😍
So, basically, we might have a solid window to load up on more metals in about two weeks. Personally, I wouldn't touch the dollar with a ten-foot pole since all my expenses are in Euros, and frankly, I’m not a fan of how Ben keeps printing and printing. You can't forget we have elections coming up, which means there'll be massive pressure to juice the economy so Osama can cruise to an easier victory. When it comes to politics, nobody asks about the cost—they just want a quick stimulus to win the election. That said, I'm not expecting some wild swing in the Euro/Dollar exchange rate. Everyone is printing money over here and over there; jumping from the Euro to the Dollar is just moving from one sinking ship to another.
The whole economic situation smells like a stagflation scenario to me. Jobs will dry up, the government will print more cash, which triggers inflation, people will start hoarding, which drags the economy down even further, leaving us stuck in a period of stagnation.
This whole business with Tungsten feels like it was orchestrated by the villains. Usually, the smaller the coin or the thinner the metal, the lower the chance that the Tungsten has been seeded in there. It's a mess because you can't easily detect it unless you actually damage the coin or the bar. Maybe soon we'll see physical bullion encased in plastic with holograms just to guarantee it hasn't been tampered with? Like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinebar Or they'll just stick to 0.1 ounce coins, hoping the profit margin is too slim for anyone to bother messing with them. Or better yet, silver: if a one-ounce coin is worth maybe 30 Euros, the potential profit from melting it down is so much lower than gold that you'd hope nobody even tries it.
Right now, I'm slowly building my silver position through bullionvault.com—just a few kilos every week or two. If a serious dip shows up, I'll buy more.
Someone actually went and filled those 10 oz PAMP gold bars with tungsten. Some trader down in New York City decided to drill into a few of them—only to find out the gold was basically just a thin veneer.
A comment from SilverDoctors: A few months back, Doc shared a post from some heavy hitters that laid out a solid overview of how certain assets behave during hyperinflation. Real estate can absolutely crater because once financing costs hit the stratosphere, the only way anyone can manage a purchase is if the sticker price is dirt cheap. One specific case I remember involved a house that originally pulled maybe $800,000 but eventually tanked down to $90,000—simply because that was the absolute max the property income could support given how insane the interest rates were. There’s one more thing to consider here. If you’re renting rather than drowning in debt, there’s a decent chance your rent won't climb nearly as fast as the inflation rate. Residential properties can only handle so many real-term increases before they basically become a money pit. If things play out in your favor, you could actually end up renting a luxury hotel suite for a bargain, complete with all the bells and whistles like daily maid service and full access to the amenities. If your silver and gold appreciate faster than the inflation rate—which is pretty much a given during those kinds of chaotic times—you could actually set yourself up in a high-end residence without breaking the bank while everything else goes to hell. It sounds totally backwards that a home or an investment property could take such a massive haircut, but you only have to look at US property prices back in the 1970s to see it happen—especially in hot spots like the South. We're talking about a period where nominal inflation was sitting at 10-15%. When standard mortgage rates climbed to 15%, almost nobody could stomach the monthly payments unless the property was priced way below the asking price. In my career this enormous increase in rates crushed the sales prices of commercial property by 50%. If the holding costs of real estate exceed its income in inflationary times, the price usually plunges by 50% or more. Unless there is a robust income coming from a specific piece of real estate, it is, in reality, a cost center, not an income producer. Unless a person can hold the property indefinitely because they have bottomless pockets, they'll usually dump it at a loss before it bankrupts them—and that happens even to owners who are incredibly wealthy and liquid. Bottom line: real estate can act as a massive anchor for someone trying to navigate their way out of a hyperinflationary mess. That’s why it’s better to travel light with physical assets in your pocket and get out of Dodge while the getting is good.
------------------- Setting aside the nonsense about living in hotels, this stuff is actually pretty interesting: 1. Back in the 70s, inflation was hitting 10-15%? I didn't realize that, but it sounds like a darker version of the current QE / ESF maneuvering we're seeing now. 2. When inflation is high and the economy is trashed, people can't afford homes—some might even be forced to sell because their taxes have become unbearable. Consequently, the prices for houses, apartments, and land can swing wildly in both directions. 3. Real estate is recorded on paper, which means you can't just walk away from the property taxes. When shit hits the fan, who knows if some new Linic will swoop in and introduce punitive real estate tax rates targeting "the wealthy" during those lean times. Coins and bars aren't recorded in any government ledger.
Andrew Barrett4 said:So, what’s everyone’s take on using debt as an inflation hedge?
Fighting fire with gasoline, I suppose... 🙂
That was my initial thought process—grab a condo, put down 50% cash, finance the other half, and keep a solid liquidity cushion. I'm looking at a fixed interest rate around 2-2.5% for a 10-year term. If inflation actually kicks in, my win is simply seeing the real value of that debt evaporate.
The catch, obviously, is that I’d be carrying debt. Besides, I'm not even convinced we’ll see massive inflation—if things went that far off the rails, this whole economy would basically cease to function. We might see 5%, maybe 7% or 10% if things get messy, but anything higher is hard to wrap my head around. The big banks have way too much sway over policy to let hyperinflation destroy everything.
And besides, prices in Germany have already hit historic highs. It doesn't feel like a smart play to buy into something that's clearly overpriced. Real estate is already so bloated that buying right now feels like a losing game.
Anyway, I don't buy into those doomsday scenarios about running out of groceries or electricity. If society actually collapses to that level, you aren't going to need a vegetable garden or a generator—you're going to need an AK-47 or an MP5.
Andrew Barrett4 said:So, what’s everyone’s take on using debt as an inflation hedge?
Fighting fire with gasoline, I suppose... 🙂
That was actually my first thought—buy a house, put down 50% of my own cash, take out a loan for the other half, and keep a solid reserve on hand. Imagine locking in a fixed rate around 2-2.5% for 10 years. If inflation actually hits, I win because the real value of that debt just evaporates.
The part I'm not crazy about is being in debt, plain and simple. Besides, I’m honestly not convinced we’re heading for massive hyperinflation—if things went that south, this whole economy wouldn't even be able to function. We might see 5%, maybe 7%, maybe 10%... but it’s hard to imagine anything significantly higher than that. The big banks have way too much sway over policy to let inflation spiral completely out of control.
And look, prices in Germany have already been pushed to historic highs. Buying something that’s already massively overpriced doesn't feel like a winning play to me.
Also, I don't buy into those doomsday scenarios about running out of groceries or electricity. If everything really does go to hell like that, you aren't going to need a backyard garden and a flashlight—you're going to need an AK74 or an MP5.
Anthony Evans78 said:Lucky for those of us holding gold or silver, though I don't envy everyone else. Given how things are looking right now, the PM has plenty of reasons to let rates climb. It’s a grim outlook; most people are going to end up broke after this mess plays out, and I'm certainly not celebrating that—unless, of course, everything truly hits the fan if the Middle East ignites and drags the rest of the world down with it. The middle class? Honestly, I think it’s basically a myth at this point.
Setting aside the middle class and the Middle East for a second—do you actually think the PM will climb high enough to make up for your lost job?
I personally doubt we'll see those extreme, doomsday scenarios. Even if we ended up in a conflict with, say, Iran, that still isn't some massive existential threat to America, and I find it hard to imagine a sane scenario where a war spreads to the entire globe.
Since we're talking inflation, it seems to me that China has consistently kept their inflation higher than bank interest rates just to force people to dump their cash into companies. It feels like we might see a similar move on the "West" side—pushing through some single-digit inflation as the price for recovery. It’s a clever way to drain money from the hands of the middle class and funnel it straight into the pockets of politicians and those "can't-miss" stocks, like Facebook...
If that actually happens, then the winners will be the people jumping into PM today (or even earlier). By the time it becomes obvious that inflation is being forced upward, 90% of the population with a little bit of savings will be scrambling to get in, which will send the price of PM soaring way past the inflation rate. That’s your window to sell.
Honestly, it’s hard for me to wrap my head around the idea of actually selling silver at the spot price to anyone—unless you're dealing with another individual who’s just looking to park some cash in physical metal. Any decent buyback dealer is going to lowball you; otherwise, they aren't even making a profit on the transaction. Even right now, if I wanted to pick up a one-kilogram bar, I couldn't just grab it for $900—it’s going to cost me closer to $1,100 minimum. You’ve got the minting costs on top of the metal, then the government sticks its hand in with taxes—even with things like reduced sales tax in places like Texas—and finally, the dealer needs to take a cut to keep the lights on.
The best spread I’ve come across is through online dealers like Goldmoney or BullionGold. They charge a little something for storage and a small commission, but that puts you incredibly close to the actual spot price. Plus, those fees stay pretty negligible over the long haul. Best part? It’s highly liquid. If I want to buy more, sell off, toss more cash into the account, or pull my money out, the whole process is fast and painless.
I know, I know—somebody’s going to jump down my throat and claim that anything other than physical gold or silver is a total scam. But look, the scenario I actually see coming isn't some nuclear apocalypse—where everyone's bank records would be wiped out anyway—it’s massive inflation. It seems inevitable once all the big players—the Federal Reserve, the Fed, and the People's Bank of China—decide to flip the switch on the money printers again.
Here’s the verdict: that legal challenge against the Federal Reserve's policies just flopped—the Supreme Court isn't buying it. Meanwhile, Mario Draghi is basically shouting, "Print more, print more!" In the short term, you'll probably see stocks and the US Dollar jump, while gold and silver might take a little dip. But looking at the long game? We're talking massive growth driven by the President.
So, are we seriously pivoting to a debate about the PZK instead of actually talking about the topic at hand? Look, I’m all for renaming the thread, but let’s be real—this is a politically charged issue. A lot of people are genuinely fed up with how some of the Rom community is behaving. Now, don't get me wrong, I’m not trying to slap a label on everyone, which is exactly why the thread isn't titled "Rom Criminality." I was just trying to use one specific incident to spark a conversation about something that actually matters in the political landscape right now.
That’s why I honestly think my appeal against the moderator is totally justified.
Jose White23 just nuked my thread in the Politics section. We were literally just talking about current events and the ideas behind them—nothing more. It’s such an interesting topic, too, so I honestly don't get why it had to be shut down. What’s even the point of having an admin if their main job is just locking threads whenever they feel like it?
I'm officially calling for Jose White23 to have his admin privileges revoked.
We’re looking at a definitive uptrend here. Looking at physical coins from last week, the New York Philharmonic has climbed by about a US Dollar per ounce.