4 posts shown.
Maria Barnes said:I don't see this as some temporary blip. The issue I’m seeing everywhere—including in myself—is this lingering, misplaced optimism. We’re all just reacting to clear red flags with pure inertia. It feels like we spent way too long riding a bull market, and now the tide has turned.
Personally, I need to stop focusing on how to make a profit and start figuring out how to stop the bleeding over the next six months. I expect the S&P 500 to swing hysterically between desperate hopes for a rally and sheer panic over a total meltdown. Today was a perfect example. Forget earnings reports; the market is being driven by raw uncertainty and emotion right now.
It’ll be interesting to look back in six months and check the charts. Where did we actually end up versus where we thought we were headed? Looking at this forum, I’ve seen far more unearned optimism than unearned pessimism. Truth is, the pessimists are statistically more accurate. 🙂
Until we see actual signs of a recovery, day trading might be a decent way to kill time. 🙂
👍 is bolded.
I really think there's value in lurking for those moments of pure panic—sniping entries at a discount—just building positions bit by bit to exit later this year or maybe even next.
Ronald Hayes said:My thread, my first response.
1. I’d probably pick up some AT&T at 275. Assuming the closing price holds on Thursday, anyway.
Honestly, I'd probably pick it up even at 276...😬
Actually, knowing me, I’d likely get a bit impatient and end up chasing it all the way to 280...🤷
I’ve already shared my thoughts here on the stock chat—honestly, I think we’re going to see the S&P 500 testing that 4,000 level a few more times this week. If we can hold steady there, things are looking up... but if panic takes over, I’m looking at support levels down at 3,800, maybe even 3,600. Though, if things get messy, I don't think we'll have enough time to regroup by 3,800 today, so we might just slide straight to 3,600.
Actually, I’m feeling pretty good about that 4,000 defense being solid, so I’m expecting some swings between 4,000 and 4,300 this week—probably hitting that 4,000 mark twice. Once we clear that hurdle, we can look forward to a nice little recovery toward 4,400 in the coming weeks—everything else really hinges on the situation in Mexico and those 2007 earnings reports. Either way, I think 4,400 is a totally realistic target for the index once this settles down... and that’s where the real climb starts again.
Weimar Germany actually managed to hit its targets through hyperinflation—it was done with purpose. They essentially succeeded in paying off those massive war reparations incredibly fast. Their whole goal was to drag the nation out of the debt trap left over from WWI as quickly and cheaply as possible. Basically, they leaned into hyperinflation intentionally to meet very specific objectives.
Of course, whenever you try to force a massive economic pivot like that, things get pretty painful (look at Thatcher's era, for example). That’s why most methods used by central banks and governments during a crisis tend to focus on stretching out the recovery instead of fixing it all at once... just to lower the intensity.
On the flip side, you could argue whether Hitler was a direct result of hyperinflation or if he was more a consequence of the impossible situation the country faced after the Great War—where hyperinflation was really the only way out. In fact, that entire mess is one of the foundational reasons why Marshall's plan was even created later on.
And what about an American version of that? It's precisely because of that kind of figure that we need to soften the blow of the current crisis as much as possible. There isn't some magic trick to stop the US from losing its spot as the world's sole superpower, which unfortunately drags down their economy, living standards, national pride, and everything else along with it. Thinking we can just avoid this is pure self-deception (just like thinking this is all solely due to the real estate credit bubble)... The dollar's inflation is actually a calculated byproduct of an America trying to stay competitive while desperately clinging to its current status. After trying everything else, there’s really no reason why Europe, China, or anyone else would step in to stop that slide. They might try to cushion it, sure, but stop it? Not a chance. It's their right to secure their own standing in global politics and economics.
To me, LaRouche's arguments almost sound like the blueprint for American fascism (mixed with a bit of that old-school "rob the rich" mentality). It starts with the idea that if the US loses its current status, the whole world goes down with it. So, according to that logic, the US would have to do whatever it takes to save its standing, regardless of how bad that might be for everyone else...