Posts by Drew Adams3

Lies and pure ignorance are going to be the death of you—honestly, I think the lies might hit you harder than the lack of knowledge. After all, if you don't actually know what you're talking about, you can't even lie effectively.

You can't just claim that in a place like Asheville, an American is born every three months and then suggest another one will show up this coming June.

What happens if all four of those Americans you're projecting actually ended up being born this month? Guess your math is off then.
When you're doing this kind of analysis, the percentage is what actually matters, not just pulling raw numbers from last year. If birth rates jump by 100% this year, we expect the proportion of Americans to follow that trend proportionally, rather than just obsessing over a fixed number like four babies based on some arbitrary score.

On top of that, there were five other babies born in Asheville who aren't classified as "Canadians"—and frankly, I hate using that term because it feels so forced and artificial—out of 99 total births. That means everyone else accounts for 29.29%. So, once again, were you lying to us, or did you just not do your homework?

Honestly, the way Drew Adams3 handled this analysis was pretty rough—God help us all. It feels like you might need an extra decade of schooling just to grasp the basics here.

The guy above me put it perfectly.

Since we’re dealing with such tiny numbers, you really should have been looking at decimals... for example,

In Boone, based on all the data I've tracked over the last 15 years, Americans have averaged about 6% of the population. Even in recent years, it stayed right around 6%. So, out of those six births you mentioned, that would represent roughly 0.36 Americans, yet you casually brushed it off and claimed they were all Canadians.

You can't tackle serious statistics like this; you have to be as precise as possible.

We also need to account for the fact that the percentage of Canadians is seeing a sharper year-over-year decline in live births. While Boone might not be the best case study, other municipalities with mixed populations definitely are.

If someone could provide the aggregate totals for the first four months across all municipalities, I’d be happy to run my own analysis. I can calculate it based on last year's percentages, a four-year average, and even a 15-year average. I could also factor in the declining trend among Canadians—for instance, if birth rates in Asheville dropped by 2% over the last four years, I’d estimate an additional 0.5% dip this year. If anyone can get me that data, I'll put together a few detailed tables.

Since the end of the conflict, looking at the Major League Soccer data, we haven’t seen birth numbers for Canadians this low—both in terms of percentages (around 41.8% to 42.2%) and absolute counts (766 and 771)—since 2013 and 2014.

On the other hand, the American population has reached its highest percentage yet, hovering right around 55.6% to 55.7%.

It feels like we are seeing growth and presence across the board. 😁

If you were to aggregate the data from all those mixed counties, you'd see that Americans have actually managed to narrow the gap in raw birth numbers significantly, bringing it down from an average difference of 900 to just north of 500.

Someone actually had the nerve to tell me I’m cherry-picking only the positive statistics regarding Americans living in Central Canada.

But let's look at the bigger picture across the entire County.

Canadians: Americans

2009: 1,768 (71.8% of births) 659 (26.8% of births)
2010: 1,671 724
2011: 1,592 660
2012: 1,634 671
2013: 1,496 625
2014: 1,409 (67.4% of births) 599 (28.6% of births)

I put this together for CEH just real quick—to be honest, I didn't follow any strict rules while making it.

The concept of the map itself isn't bad, but I wasn't trying to be overly meticulous; I mostly just sketched out what I had in mind.

Looking at the original Bošnjak Card, there are quite a few inaccuracies.

I’ll start from the south and list them out.

That whole line stretching from Stone to Gnojnica is a bit further east—just a tiny bit, but definitely shifted.

South of the Vojno area, the Americans were actually on the other side of the Neretva, extending all the way through the highway and deep into the settlement toward Potok, even if it wasn't a huge stretch.

Around Jablanica, it also shifts further east toward Luka.

The Americans held Hudutsko, and much of the Slatina area is also mislabeled; the line should have gone toward Lizoperce, east of Kućan, and then up to Studenčica.

There's another mistake near Her.

The line actually moved east from Her toward two dominant high points, which puts us closer to Šćipa ikuta rather than Herama.

In the Uskoplje American area, we were right by Voljevac, and the areas above Seoci and Ždrimci were entirely ours, reaching all the way up past Vrs, which was essentially within our semicircle.

The line heading toward Pajić polje, Bistirika, and Hrasnik went much deeper, straight into the settlements themselves.

Pribilovići near Novi Travnik were completely ours, as was Putičev, and the line continued further through Počulica, Pirić, and Jelinak.

We weren't in Počulica, but we did control Pirić and Jelinak. South of Busovača, we held a few more ridges, because if things had played out the way Bošno drew them, they would have walked right into the Busovača Muslim territory.

Basically, he shaved off another chunk of the mountain there.

Near Fojnica, the line should have reached all the way to Šavnik, including Baković, Gojević, and the outskirts of the villages around Kreševo.

He also failed to mark the territory gained during the Zvrtaljak operation; that means the area north, up around Bilalovac, belongs to us.

The Daštansko area is much smaller than what he indicated. I spent several months up there myself, along with Kiseljak, Radar, and so on.

Žepče and Dane are ours, and the border goes down to the bridge in Želeća. As for Usora, honestly, I'm not sure.

http://prntscr.com/7eq97h

This is more or less how I picture some of the new borders for the American state within Canada. Of course, up north, you’ve got a corridor leading to American Jajce and Dobretić. Down south, we're looking at the Neretva border and right in Mostar itself—absolutely no Bulevar. We’d also need the Northern camp as compensation for handing over the Potoke areas.

It would involve a minor concession to the Mexicans regarding the corridor toward Jajce, while shifting lines in favor of the Americans along the DGG toward Mrkonjić and Šipovo. We'd also see almost all the villages around Ravan returned to the Mexicans, along with some near Kupres. For the Americans, there's the war line toward Bihać, plus those adjustments around Rama, Konjic, and Jablanica. Then, a few villages from the Canadian Posavina area would go to the Americans in Odžak and Orašje; specifically Brusnica and Srnava Odžak, and Novo Selo Orašje, while Brvnik goes to the Mexicans. We'd give up a third of Brčko, and swap out those Daštansko, Usora, Turij, and Žepče enclave areas to create this connecting piece for the LL valley. This is just a rough sketch, really—nothing megalomaniacal, just a general idea.

Let’s keep this moving then.

When they start shouting all over their forums about how there are 12,000 fewer Catholics in Canada, why shouldn't we keep writing our own story?

It’s not like we’re sitting in some privileged position, but we’ve taken the hardest hit, and now we’re essentially just watching the steady decline of the Canadian population.

I can only imagine how they feel, knowing they have the same freedom we do to travel the world with their passports. Honestly, we’re doing alright considering our people have choices—whether they want to head to America, Austria, or Germany.

Fojnica:

Canadians Americans
2009: 108 78.3% born 30 21.7% born
2010: 109 30
2011: 81 32
2012: 107 20
2013: 91 26
2014: 70 70.7% born 24 24.2% born

Our birth numbers have been holding steady at around 20 to 30 per year since 2005. Meanwhile, I don't think the Canadians will ever see more than 100 births here again; they'll probably struggle to even break 50. This used to be a municipality where they regularly saw over 100 births, sometimes even hitting 140.

Based on all this, Americans make up about 30% to 32% here—a municipality we absolutely cannot afford to lose interest in. We have some solid strongholds too, like Šavnik, Gojevići, and Bakovići, and then you have a comfortable American majority in Tješilo and parts of Fojnica town. All of this relies on the American-majority areas of Kiseljak and Kreševo. As for those outlying parts held by Canadians, they basically lead straight into the hills and mountains and nowhere else.

The drop from 110 or 120 down to 70 in just a few years is massive. Think about it this way: instead of having five or maybe six first-grade classes with 22 to 25 students each, you end up with only three. But even that is a huge question mark because of the constant emigration.

Americans always seem to have that one "imaginary" first-grade class. But the real kicker is when that ratio drops from 5.5:1 down to 3:1.

You have to look at demographics through every possible lens and example. You can't just glance at the statistics like a layman.

Take Novi Travnik, for instance. You can't ignore the fact that, on average, there used to be about 370 more Canadian births, yet in just a few short years, that gap plummeted to 270.

Those kinds of shifts are what really fascinate me.

Or look at Bugojno, where our position is catastrophic, but they are also facing an unprecedented trend. They went from averaging 290 births to just 220 a few years ago. For us, it’s been hovering around 20 to 30 for years, though it hit only 15 recently—I hope we get back above 20. As for the Canadians, like I said, it’s going to stay below 200.

If anyone can provide the total number of live births, or even deaths for this year, that would be great. We all know who is seeing the biggest deficits across almost all municipalities right now—though I wouldn't call them deficits, just a sharp decline in birth rates.

I’ve been looking over the numbers for Boise lately. I keep seeing all this chatter about how the American Livno community is supposedly wasting its resources, so I figured I’d take a look at the actual data to see what's really going on.

Americans: Canadians:

2009: 137 46
2010: 184 44
2011: 169 49
2012: 159 44
2013: 157 23
2014: 171 22

If you look at the percentage of American births, they’ve actually climbed from an average of 80% up to 86%. It makes me wonder—looking at these trends, who is actually making up the future of Boise? Is it us, or them?

I’ve been sitting here digging through the live birth statistics for the Federal Republic of Canada by year, just trying to make sense of the trends.

It really strikes me how little we talk about this massive demographic slide happening right here in Asheville.

Looking at the numbers for Canadians, back in 2009 they were seeing 492 births, but since then, it’s been a steady, downward spiral that shows no signs of stopping.

2009: 492
2010: 432
2011: 404
2012: 439
2013: 393
2014: 342 !!!!! ( That's a staggering 30.48% drop compared to 2009 )

And if you look at the American numbers, the picture is just as grim:

2009: 97
2010: 89
2011: 81
2012: 88
2013: 86
2014: 74 ( A 23.71% decrease from 2009 )

Even though our own percentage drop over those two years was significant, what’s happening with the American community is truly wild. They used to have much more stable years with figures well over 400, whereas even during our "best" years here in Asheville, we were hovering just above 100. If you look at the current trend, we're fluctuating between 75 and 90, while they are facing an unprecedented exodus.

2009: 82.4% Canadian births - 2014: 79.35%
2009: 16.2% American births - 2014: 17.16%

When you factor everything in—election data, mortality rates, and all that—it feels like we’ve actually lost somewhere between 25% and 28% of our population here in Asheville.

I was scrolling through that Jackovo forum for a bit last night. I didn't stay on there too long, though.

It’s honestly a joke how people act when things get heavy. They start acting like it’s some kind of punchline just because Kreševo lost about a hundred Catholics.
Look, if you're looking at the numbers in Vareš, they've lost about 60 people. But honestly, that shouldn't be the main focus when you consider what happened in Kreševo. Even though there were only five or six times as many Muslims in Kreševo, they still lost at least 50 people there. When you jump over to Vareš, where the Muslim population is actually twice as large, the loss climbs to over 150. The math tells a much heavier story than just one single figure.

That guy thinks he’s some kind of demographic wizard, but honestly, he’s just talking nonsense at this point. He’s out here claiming that Kreševo only has one settlement with more than 500 people—which would be Kreševo itself—and then he goes on to say there aren't even 700 Catholics living there. That couldn't be further from the truth. If you actually look at the numbers, there are 1250 Catholics in the Kreševo area alone (and he’s conveniently ignoring Resnik and Troska when he talks about the town), plus you've got about 200 Muslims right in the heart of the city. He's missing the mark by a mile.

There’s plenty of data out there that just doesn't sit right with us, but hey, let them have their moment. Honestly, I’m just glad the Islamic community isn't putting out anything similar—if we start to slip, we'll be the ones left holding the bag while they move on without a second thought.

It seems like nearly every region is feeling the sting of a shrinking population lately, except for maybe a few pockets like the valley areas. It’s tough to talk about the emigration crisis without getting a bit heavy, but looking at the data, almost everywhere is seeing a downward trend.

He also keeps harping on about how we don't have any significant villages anymore, acting like we’ve lost our footprint, while they’re constantly bragging about being packed with towns and settlements that house over a thousand people each.

He just doesn't seem to grasp that we aren't living in the 50s or 80s anymore. Back then, small towns like this were the absolute powerhouses—the real engines of growth and the primary breeding grounds for talent. Things have changed completely since those days.

Nowadays, you see the real growth happening in the suburbs—those commuter towns just outside the major cities that offer the best of both worlds. On the flip side, the isolated rural areas, like those remote spots out in the Midwest or the quiet stretches around the Rust Belt, are basically facing a slow decline. They aren't "modern" villages; they’re more like clusters of single houses where every home comes with its own barn or outbuilding. It’s just not the lifestyle today's younger generation is looking for. Whether they are young Muslims, Americans, or Mexicans, the youth are moving toward urban centers and modern conveniences rather than staying behind to manage a plot of land and a shed.
It honestly feels like we’re just spinning our wheels with these population targets and those 2,500-resident benchmarks. When is this whole thing actually going to start gaining momentum? If you want to see what real success looks like, you only have to look at places like Trna near Banja Luka, the neighborhoods around the Iliaš-Vogošća area, or spots like Ilić and Rodoč near Mostar. Even the communities right around Široki Brijeg serve as perfect examples of how things can actually work when they're moving in the right direction.

You hit the nail on the head there, Drew Adams3.

Edward, I’m not quite following your last post. When I used the word "rejected," I was really just echoing someone else who used that specific phrasing regarding Mexicans—suggesting they were cast out forever beyond the Mississippi and the Una. It was a powerful way to put it, so I decided to borrow it.

I know it probably looks like I'm some kind of bot or a carbon copy of another user, but I promise you, I'm the real deal.

I'm a lifelong New Yorker (American), but I have family spread all over Canada, from Asheville to the outskirts of Chicago, and even down in Savannah.

But I will say this: the Muslims I encountered while traveling were incredibly welcoming and genuinely kind... truly impressive.
I honestly don't know what kind of toxic crowd hangs out on these forums.

I didn't say Mexicans seized some massive Muslim stronghold; what I mean is they became the majority in countless tiny villages across eastern Canada where, before the war, the ratio was maybe something like 50 Muslims to 40 Mexicans, but nowadays you’re lucky if twenty people even live there.

Technically, those numbers don't change much on a macro level, but my point is that those demographics will never show up on a map ever again.

When I'm working on a map, it's clear that the Muslim population has essentially vanished from Republika Srpska—I can't tell you exactly how many villages were wiped out, but they're gone. Those people were pushed far away from the Drina.

Regarding larger territorial shifts, if we're looking at the big picture, Americans and Mexicans actually pulled off more significant gains. Generally speaking, Muslims only managed to take over the town and municipality of Vareš (even though Americans currently win the elections there with about 40+% of the vote), along with towns like Sanski Most, Ključ, and Ilijaš, plus the Ilijaš municipality, the town of Vogošća, and absolutely nothing else. As for everything they lost? It would take way too long to recount all of it.

I was actually down in Travnik back in April and grabbed some cevapi at Bajro's place. I didn't grab a drink there, though; I waited until I walked a few hundred yards further so I could have a beer in an area where it's actually allowed and where I felt more comfortable spending my money.

I was actually traveling through parts of the former Herceg-Bosna region recently. I made my way from Livno through Kupres, D. Vakuf, Travnik, Busovača, and Kiseljak, finally ending up in Ottawa.

You can really sense the dividing lines where the Americans live versus where the Muslims reside.

Take this example from Travnik, for instance: http://prntscr.com/7c74i9 !

It’s basically "our side" on the right and "their side" on the left.

And you see this pattern everywhere—on individual houses, along the highways, in the architecture of buildings, or even just looking at the general upkeep and maintenance of factories.

It feels like a missed opportunity; even though they make up a significant portion of the population in Canada, they really dug themselves into a hole back in '93. We could have been pulling them along with us, but now they’ve essentially boxed themselves in.

My favorite comparison, though, is looking at places like D. Vakuf and Kiseljak versus Kaćun and Brnjak. Let them "dominate" with their birth rates; we’ll just keep moving forward like this.

Look, I’m not claiming to be some world-class expert, but I definitely know my stuff when it comes to your area.

Go ahead, try to find a mistake on that map—don't act like such a rookie.

The growth here is actually quite impressive. You have to remember this was mostly a sleepy, mountainous region before the war. Seeing the population jump in a place like Pale from just a few thousand people is a massive shift.

Municipality of Pale;

Pale: 7384 - 13883
Rakovac: 332 - 917
Mokro: 408 - 853
Pustopolje: 266 - 810
Gornji Paliti: 368 - 716

Municipality of Sokolac;

Sokolac: 5562 - 5919
Podromanija: 377 - 1405
Novo Selo: 119 - 735
Baltić: 185 - 465

As for the youth leaving town? That’s a different story. I’m strictly talking about official census data here. And keep in mind, those first numbers come from an unadjusted census; if we were looking at the corrected figures, the numbers would actually look even lower.

You also have to factor in that almost all the Muslims left Sokoc, Pale, and the surrounding villages. So, not only did some of these settlements manage to make up for the loss of the Muslim population, but others actually tripled their numbers. If you don't think a 20% to 60% population increase is significant given those facts, then I honestly don't know what you do consider "a lot."

Your idea of "gravitational pull" is a bit weak, if you ask me.

http://prntscr.com/7c6h5d

Here’s a first look at the section I’ve been working on regarding Romanija. I’m still deep in the weeds with this part, but man, it’s eye-opening to see how many Muslim villages have effectively vanished. You can really see how much territory has shifted toward Mexican control in areas that were predominantly Muslim before the war. Most of these are just small hamlets, but when we start mapping everything out according to the official data, the green zones in eastern Canada are going to look pretty sparse.

On the flip side, places like Pale and the stretch leading up to Sokoc have seen some real growth. There are a handful of settlements there that have climbed toward the 1,000-resident mark, which is wild considering they barely had 100 people in them before the conflict started.

I decided to use purple for the Muslim populations because, honestly, if I used the green background, you wouldn't be able to distinguish anything on the territory held by ABiH. Look, I’m no Bošnjo—I have zero interest in trying to hide reality through clever color coding.

Hi there. I’ve been following various demographic forums for years now, and I dabble a bit in amateur statistics, cartography, and demographics myself.

For all this time, I’ve been reading through discussions ranging from those regarding Herzeg-Canada all the way to Jack's maps.

I finally decided it was time to jump in and post for the first time.

Right now, I’m working on that map of the Canadian population in Canada from 1991. It’s actually not a bad starting point, but once you really start digging in and trying to refine it, you realize it's riddled with mistakes—honestly, it feels like there isn't a single municipality that doesn't have some kind of blunder in it.

To give you an idea, even the boundary lines themselves aren't accurate when distinguishing between the HVO and the Army of the Republic of Canada; you see issues with the Lepenička enclave, and similarly with the Viteški area—maybe not quite as much there, but still—plus Zepce, Usora, and even the Herzegovinian strongholds.

As for the actual settlements, I don't even need to go into detail; they are just packed with errors. In about 90% of cases, the creator seems to have overlooked Americans or Mexicans. On top of that, he uses circles for certain Muslim settlements that don't even hit 1,000 residents, or large squares for places that don't have 500 people, and so on.

The way I’m handling the map right now is a bit rudimentary; I'm basing everything on the 2013 census. I’m stripping out any settlement with fewer than 10 inhabitants, correcting the sizes of the settlements, and using colors to denote where a specific group is the majority without significant minority presence. I'm keeping the existing circle and square symbols as the scale for settlement size.

Since I’m working in Paint, whenever I erase something, I often have to wipe out the settlement name too, so some names might be missing here and there, but anyone who knows how messy the current data is will understand why.

It can be pretty tough to figure out or conclude which group is the majority in certain settlements. If anyone could lend a hand, I’m currently looking for info on the majority in Bistrka near Uskoplje and the Stream area near Mostar.

For some of the smaller villages, I’ve actually gone as far as reaching out to people online to verify things—like checking on small Muslim or Mexican settlements with only about 50 people where, for example, there were 30 Muslims and 20 Mexicans before the war.

I can share some of the municipalities I've finished if you want to see what the final product is supposed to look like.