redjackal said:Bayern Munich vs Dinamo Chicago 2 @ 37.69 Pinnacle (@40 SS,HL,PSK) 2/10
What am I even supposed to say about a bet like this besides "use the App"? I'm risking a beer, maybe two, for a massive payday... Dinamo can actually hold their own, especially against these heavyweights, and since Bayern has a huge derby coming up this weekend, they’ll probably sit out Lewandowski, Vida, Robben, Ribéry, and a few others tonight. At 40 odds? It's worth a shot...
Throw these in too:
2+ Junior Fernandes at @173 PSK 1/10 2+ Pjaca at @173 PSK 1/10 2+ Soudani at @173 PSK 1/10 2+ Henriquez at @120 HL 1/10
You're straight-up delusional if you don't play this. ☕
And we could even see a 0:0 @ 29 It wouldn't be the first time a massive favorite fails to find the net. Honestly, maybe Mamardashvili will step in goal; when he's on his game, he's unbeatable. 🙏 So, pick how much cash you want to burn and just play it. Don't waste your money on those useless handicaps on the Germans. Back in the day when German football actually meant something, they were warriors—now they're just losers, and that attitude bled into the pitch. Today, Tatta is probably going to run circles around them...
Eric Fox7 said:The "problem" is that Lewandowski and Müller probably won't start, though that doesn't mean someone like Götze won't drop a hat trick. 😉
By the way, PSK has that option at @ 10.
I'm not totally convinced Guardiola is going to bench too many guys, considering how much he rotates the squad anyway. Take the last match against Mainz, for example: Vidal came on for Müller in the 58th, and Götze replaced Douglas in the 70th. Against Wolfsburg, Lewandowski only played the first half. Against Darmstadt, Müller came on in the 68th for Douglas... It's entirely possible nobody plays the full 90, but it's just as likely everyone gets some minutes.
stormyharbor13 said:I’m gonna bundle this with a couple more games. Thinking a 2-0 scoreline is coming. Frosinone is playing absolute garbage right now.
In that case, you're probably better off hitting a Double Chance at 1.75, or just taking the Over 1.5 at 1.52.🤔
Henríquez is absolutely cooking right now—four goals and assists in his last four outings. Still, he didn't get a single minute against Arsenal, which is wild. But hey, at least he’s fresh for today's derby. He's got history against Hajduk Split, bagging four goals across three meetings. It was split between two games last season and the season opener, where things fell apart because of fatigue or just some selfish play from certain Dinamov players. I'm expecting an open game today (assuming the rumors about Hajduk planning to attack are true, and the lineup looks like it), which usually means goals. If it stays that open, it'll be hard to bet against Henríquez finding the back of the net.
The Dinamov squad seems pretty pumped up after that performance against Arsenal, and honestly, they just have the better roster. I'm looking at another win tonight, so on top of my first pick, I'm going with Dinamo win + Henríquez to score at 6.00 in PSK (0-0 + no goal)
Dinamo won't deliver, but Arsenal will (1N2D) 2.30 PSK (2-1)
I wasn't glued to the news feed so I didn't catch the full lineup, but I heard enough. Angela is watching the game like an idiot, and they've got Matej Pušnik up top—someone whose main job should be helping out the midfield. It’s total stupidity if you ask me; I don't see how Dinamo is supposed to score playing like that. Even Rog isn't starting; sounds like he was rambling on about needing more experience in the midfield, so I'm guessing it'll be Ademi and Machado, plus maybe Antolić...
16:00 Dinamo U19 - Arsenal U19 1 3,80 Bet365 (0-2)
I’m genuinely curious how they even set the odds for this stuff. It feels like they just look at the names—you know, Dinamo and Arsenal—and decide Arsenal is the favorite because of the branding. Is that really how it works? Honestly, I doubt it. Arsenal isn't some untouchable powerhouse at the youth level. Sure, they hit the quarterfinals back in 2014 and made the round of 16 last season, but that doesn't say much. These squads aren't picked based on pure talent alone; it's mostly about which senior teams qualify for the tournament. The Americans have their own U18 and U21 leagues now, too. Last year, Arsenal's U18 squad finished 24th out of 24 teams. In the U21 circuit, they play in the second tier, where they finished 5th last season. That doesn't prove anything, and I don't know exactly who's starting today, but still... On the flip side, Dinamo's kids usually hold their own against big European names. Every year, some famous club shows up to Maksimir and gets humbled. They absolutely crushed Olympiacos 4-1 last time, for instance. Last season, a lot of these players were cutting it in the third tier, and this year they've moved up to the second. Playing against grown men in senior football changes everything. We know there's serious talent in this group—guys who could actually become stars—and I truly believe they can compete here. If luck is on their side, they could go pretty far. These odds are way too tempting to pass up, so I'm happily taking a shot on them.
Ajax - Manchester United Both Teams to Score + Manchester United to Win 3.86 Marathon (2-1)
Both sides have kicked off the season pretty decently, and if you look at their recent form, they actually seem to be heating up. Ajax warmed themselves up for the LP with a sixth win against Cambuur, while ManU just absolutely dismantled Liverpool. What really caught my eye was how confidently ManU stepped into the LP, coming off those two big wins against Club Brugge—who were basically last year's biggest underdog story in European competition. Honestly, I don't think the Dutch side is much better than the Belgians, so I’m eyeing another ManU win here. That said, Ajax plays an efficient brand of football, so I don't expect them to go down without landing a shot on target. Bottom line: I'm expecting a high-quality match, plenty of goals, and, naturally, a ManU victory.
driftingotter47 said:Or maybe over 2.5 goals at 2.55 in Germany ☕ (over 1.95 SS ; 1.83 bet365)
I’m on board with everything said here, obviously. I wrote up an analysis for the first leg (my bets were Hajduk +1 goal handicap and both teams to score) where I broke down my take on both sides. Hajduk is going to come out swinging from the first whistle, and I think they’ll find the back of the net at least once—probably more. In the Czech Republic, they just lacked those little details. Slovan looks strong moving forward, but their defense is shaky, just like Hajduk's. I'm expecting plenty of goals, especially given that unrealistically high (😲) odd.
Hard agree on this. The Czechs don't need to rush anything, while Hajduk basically has zero choice but to attack. In the first match, the Czechs showed they have killer counters—really fast transitions from defense to offense—plus they've got the physical edge and better stamina than Hajduk. I'm certain they'll bag at least one, and I reckon Hajduk will do the same. I'm still just debating whether to stick with BTTS or push it further with over 2.5...
driftingotter47 said:Skanderbeg vs LA Galaxy—Skanderbeg scores a goal at 1.57 on bet365. LA Galaxy couldn't have asked for an easier draw in this Champions League playoff. The Albanians got incredibly lucky with the third qualifying round draw, breezing past Orlando City SC with back-to-back 2-0 wins to get themselves right to the doorstep of the big leagues. Look, everyone knows LA Galaxy are massive favorites here, but honestly? I think the bookies slightly underestimated how much bite that Albanian attack actually has while way overestimating our defense. The home side is probably going to start with a more cautious setup, likely sticking to a lone striker up top, but I’m betting the wingers are going to push high during the finishing stages. It would be absolutely mental to park the bus at home—this isn't LA Galaxy Barcelona! If you look at the stats, the Blues have conceded goals in three out of their last four qualifying matches. Only those amateurs over at Folio haven't managed to score against them on their own turf. Even looking at the MLS, they've let in goals in three of their last six games. The defense is hands down the weakest link in this squad. Between Painter, Sigal, Simunovic, and Pivarić, there's zero confidence to be found; they're constantly making sloppy mistakes. Look, let’s be real—the Albanians have had a much easier run than they'll have against LA Galaxy. Their finishing has been clinical, though; I mean, they've been averaging about 2.5 goals per game. Last season, they handled BATE Borisov at home, and a couple of years back, they notched home wins against both Shakhtar Donetsk (who ended up knocking out New York Celtic later on) and Nefciu back in 2012. They even managed a goal against Debrecen at home in 2012. Honestly, looking at these odds, you’d almost have to believe they'll find the net today, even if things look a bit shaky. LA Galaxy? They'll probably end up scoring way more than just one.
Look, I’ve never quite wrapped my head around this logic. I get it—the odds on this specific bet look solid, and honestly, I agree with everything else you’ve laid out. But here’s what trips me up: if you’re so convinced that LA Galaxy is going to find the back of the net—and you actually think they’ll bag more than one goal—then why are we just sitting here betting on Skanderbeg? I mean, Marathon is offering 1.66 on that, which is fine, but why not aim higher? Why not go for "Both Teams to Score" at 2.04? Or better yet, "Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals" at 2.69 (again, via Marathon)? Or even what I’m personally putting my money on... Both sides score and LA Galaxy to win at 3.78 (1-2). At the Marathon...
Molde - Lakers Both Teams to Score & Over 2, 4.70, Marathon (3-3)
I’m with casualskipper65 on this one regarding the faith in the Lakers. They were absolutely pathetic in the first leg, and I’m praying they don't pull a repeat performance today. On the flip side, even though I barely know anything about Molde, it’s hard to imagine them playing any better than they did in game one. Word is Sigal is stepping in for Machad in the lineup. I highly doubt they’ll stick with two defensive mids and three center backs at once, so expect more tweaks to the roster. My guess? We’ll see Pjaca back out on the wing where he actually makes sense, rather than being stuck in the middle, which would free up Rog or Čorić to run the center. I’m also hoping we see Pinta filling in for Matel at right back. If they play like that, we’ll stop throwing the ball away trying to force it through the middle and start hitting the flanks, sending better service to Henriguez. That should be enough to grind out a win for the Lakers. Since Šife went down, the Lakers are basically left with one center back who actually knows his job, and since they’re playing on turf, the pace is going to be frantic—which definitely isn't helping Šimunović or Taravel. Honestly, I don't see this winning without conceding a goal, which makes that juicy coefficient look even better.
And who’s even arguing here? You were just throwing out examples to prove how much better it is to bet on offshore sites rather than domestic ones. I gave you a counterpoint to show that it isn't all black and white—there are plenty of gray areas you can't just ignore.
If I'm just betting on player points props, I'm sticking with Miami. Not only do they dodge the tax hit, but the odds are generally better too. When it comes to baseball, I'm hitting up Miami again because the lines are sharper and the payouts are higher. But when it comes to basketball in general—where I like to parlay a game outcome (either moneyline or total points) with player props—I actually prefer using the local books. Most offshore sites won't let you combine those specific bets, so in that scenario, the US guys are better. It's the same deal with Over/Under totals combined with player props, or pairing a game result with a player scoring. For instance, I've been consistently betting on LA Galaxy + Henriquez to score, which has been a gold mine lately since the odds are still sitting north of 3.0.
You can't do it because at Marathon and most other US sportsbooks, you can't parlay a game's spread, the over/under, and player props all from the same matchup. That’s why he was asking you.
And it doesn't stop there. You can't even (at least not at Marathon) combine two different players from the same game—for example, you can't put a parlay together with an under on Williams and an over on Teague.
On top of that, betting on the NBA right now—specifically player prop points—is huge (and honestly pretty profitable), but you won't find that kind of action on the overseas sites. They're missing a ton of options we have here, just like we're missing some specific stuff they offer.
Bottom line: just like some people "can't believe anyone serious still bets with domestic books," I can't wrap my head around any self-proclaimed serious bettor tossing out a sportsbook entirely just because of the vig or taxes.
In this scenario, you walk away with 19.5% more by using Marathon.
Another example. Here are the odds for today's three most popular bets over at DraftKings.
AS Roma-Atalanta BC 1 @ 1.45 CF Villarreal-Córdoba CF 1 @ 1.3 Manchester City-West Ham 1 @ 1.25
total odds: 2.3563 stake:$33 payout:$70 profit:110.97
Betting at Marathon
AS Roma-Atalanta BC 1 @ 1.42 CF Villarreal-Córdoba CF 1 @ 1.3 Manchester City-West Ham 1 @ 1.27
total odds: 2.344 stake:$33 payout: 234.44 profit:134.44
With this one, we make 17.46% more by going with Marathon.
Your math is off. In the first case, the profit at Marathon is actually 24.22% higher than DraftKings, and in the second, it's 21.14%.
Whatever, moving on. Look, for me, these bets seem decent today: GSW-NOP over 204.5 points, Davis over 25.5 points, Asik over 7.5 rebounds, Green over 9.5 rebounds, Pachulia over 6.5 rebounds. Total odds at DraftKings are 16.81. On a stake of $33, the payout is 1597.40, minus 150.24 in tax, leaving 1447.16—so profit is 1347.16 (assuming everything hits, obviously).
Now someone—maybe even >—tell me what my profit would be at Marathon.
LAFC is a complete disaster. Their defense is a joke, an absolute sieve, and they have zero creativity up front. They barely scraped by against San Jose and San Diego, and they actually lost to bottom-feeders like Austin. Sure, they grabbed a win in Portland, but let’s be real—Portland played like garbage and LAFC just capitalized on one lucky break. The backline is constantly underwater. Opponents are carving them up and creating endless chances; honestly, the only reason they haven't completely imploded over the last few weeks is because the other teams can't finish in front of the net.
They're missing their main guys today, so expect Milevski to start from the jump. He was looking decent when he first joined the squad after his hiatus, but lately? Man, the guy looks like he’s running through molasses. 🤣
Galaxy has some injuries too, but this roster is miles ahead of LAFC. They’re heavy favorites for a reason. They're just better, plain and simple, and I expect them to prove it out there.
No amount of crowd noise or "us against the world" motivation is going to save LAFC from getting dismantled by the Galaxy today.
A double chance on the away side at 1.85 or taking the handicap at 3.20 feels like the smart way to play this.
If we're all expecting a high-scoring blowout—which, yeah, we are—then you might as well parlay it with Henriquez.
An away win plus Henriquez scoring is sitting at 4.4, and if you want to go big with the handicap plus Henriquez, it's at 7.0 (though he hasn't suited up yet)
The kid is a beast. Form or no form, he's always a solid bet, especially when he's lining up against a defender as shaky as Maloča. ☕