Posts by Bryan Booth82

analogbear5 said:Break down what an exchange rate like that actually means and how it hits the economy.

You're probably just gonna ignore me anyway—so here goes.

A strong Dollar hurts exports but makes importing a breeze. Basically, you get more foreign goods for less cash.

On the flip side, a weak Dollar tanks imports but gives exporters a boost. You get less foreign currency for every buck you spend. Any exporter not dealing in oil or gas? They're basically toast.

Why would anyone sacrifice tax revenue from exports like this? Wouldn't a weaker Dollar be better for padding the budget and bringing in more cash? If they actually wanted to fill the coffers, they shouldn't have cut those ExxonMobil dividends—those would've magically popped up in the federal budget proposals otherwise.

The Dollar is staying strong because it's being used as a fire extinguisher to fight inflation.

The real question is: how much longer can this "firefighting" method actually hold up? Because despite these measures, inflation remains absolutely massive.
Time is working against this attempt at "extinguishing" the fire; the longer the war drags on and the more these sanctions take hold, the harder it becomes to keep inflation under control.
I certainly wouldn't bet on their success.

Best,

urbanotter said:I have to wonder where you're getting your information from—where on earth did you find an American ATM that carries rubles and actually accepts them?

With a nose for finding things like that, you could probably make a fortune hunting for truffles out in the countryside.

But setting aside the jokes, if we look at how sanctions are actually impacting the ruble, here is what the situation looks like:

The Russian ruble has been at its strongest point in two years. How is that possible?

Inflation in Russia, June 2022: 17.5%🤔
... yet the ruble has never been stronger.
How on earth does that work? Is someone out there actually suggesting that people have lost their minds? Because if so, the answer is a resounding
no.
Lp

urbanotter said:It seems like because they finally "get" that tactic, NATO members are ramping up their defense spending; NATO is planning to have 300,000 troops on standby, while the US is actively deploying new personnel to Europe..
That’s just how it goes when sanctions fail to hit the mark; instead of getting the intended result, they end up swinging back like a boomerang, often hurting the ones who imposed them even more than the targets themselves.😉

Oh, please. That’s exactly how Putin's propaganda machine wants you to think. They love to twist the truth until they end up contradicting themselves, but that’s the standard playbook when the propaganda is aimed at
the gullible.

In your little summary here, you conveniently left out everything that didn't fit your narrative, just so you could tailor the story to whatever you want to believe.
Ebiga, it doesn't work like that.

NATO isn't beefing up its military or increasing investment because sanctions aren't working. What NATO is doing has absolutely nothing to do with sanctions.

NATO is acting because there is a threat, and there needs to be a response to that threat. This isn't some unprecedented move.

Even the most naive people don't buy those flowery speeches about being a "guarantor of peace and security" anymore, which is actually a good thing.
The fact remains: Putin only respects raw power, and NATO is that power.
It couldn't be any simpler; anything else is just hot air and speculation.

This whole narrative—that sanctions are failing, so therefore the West is mobilizing its military—is a story useful to Russia and Putin, not to the West. So, we all know exactly where this line of reasoning is coming from, don't we?

I’d be worried if the West were the one claiming sanctions weren't working and using that as an excuse to put NATO forces on high alert... but they’ll never say that, because hiding a lie that blatant would be impossible. We aren't in Russia.
Lp

dustyowl29 said:So, what kind of step are we actually talking about here? What else can they possibly pile onto Russia?
There are still plenty of types of sanctions that haven't even been touched yet...

The kind of "step" that bullies understand best.
Best,

urbanotter said:To my mind, these measures are just another step in a well-worn playbook we've seen played out many times before.

A lot of people who have watched these situations unfold believe that the current sanctions aren't yielding the desired results, and it's becoming increasingly obvious that we are just watching the next phase of this predictable pattern being prepared.

Let’s be real: sanctions work. No serious person could argue that being hit by them is some kind of win for the target.
The real debate, if you want to get into the weeds, is how much collateral damage they inflict on the ones imposing them.
As a general rule, you have a coalition of groups or nations aiming these measures at a single individual or entity, and usually, the ones with the most leverage are the ones pulling the strings.
Consequently, if these sanctions end up hurting the countries that implemented them, that burden gets spread out among the many. But the target? They can hardly "spread out" the damage they're taking. They bear the brunt of it alone.

Honestly, I’m convinced that sanctions are merely the opening move... in fact, I’d go as far as to say the second step should have already been taken by now.
Best,

urbanotter said:I’m well aware that there are quite a few folks who still believe the Earth is a flat disc.

I completely agree that attacking other countries is an evil act, and honestly, you shouldn't need a hundred years to realize that.
If you just look back at the last century—though looking back several hundred years would be better—you can see how clearly this pattern repeats itself.

When you study the history of the last hundred years, or even the last few centuries, you begin to recognize a very specific, recurring pattern where sanctions are merely one part of the playbook.

It starts with defiance, moves into persuasion and economic sanctions, involves building up massive military forces, and culminates in the actual deployment of that army.
The terrifying part is that we are facing a much tougher nut to crack this time around. If we move toward that final step in the established pattern, we could find ourselves staring down the barrel of World War III, at which point it won't matter anymore whether the sanctions or the ultimate military strike actually achieved their intended goals or not.

True, but let's be realistic: there isn't really a choice in the matter. You can't just say, "Hey, let's skip the sanctions this time." They are as inevitable as the sunrise following the night.

People will debate how effective sanctions actually are and whether they go far enough for as long as they live. But make no mistake: they are hitting the target. Right now, the only question is how precise that hit actually is.
Best regards,

urbanotter said:The real challenge here is just identifying who the true egoists and the villains actually are in this whole scenario.

Once that's settled, everything else should fall perfectly into place.

Some people argue that we need to wait a hundred years to see the actual impact of sanctions, while others might take a century just to figure out who the bad guys are because they've been blinded by some shiny trinkets. They convince themselves they are being "pragmatic" and more sophisticated than those who refuse to trade away their principles for mere glitter.

So, whether it takes a seventh, eighth, or ninth round of sanctions, once we look back a hundred years from now to see how effective they were, we'll finally know who was actually trading wisely.

But, if I'm being honest, I have a gut feeling we won't have to wait a hundred years; we'll probably see the real impact of these sanctions within a few months.

There are plenty of them out there—people who would argue about whether the Earth is a flat disc. Now, having a weird theory isn't inherently a crime... until you start inventing lies and denying blatant facts to back it up.

Evil is invading other nations, bombing cities, leveling towns, and, of course, murdering innocent people.
If someone needs a hundred years to wrap their head around that reality, then they have much bigger problems than politics.

Best regards,

urbanotter said:I don't think opportunism counts as some kind of "noble human quality" either.

But if we're being honest, it's easily the most common trait out there, and arguably the most effective way to actually make it through life—unlike that "noble" quality known as idealism,
which usually just lands people straight at the gates of St. Peter.☕

Oh, you are absolutely spot on there. Personally, I stick to pragmatism. Honestly, if you want to avoid getting caught in the crossfire, it’s actually quite productive to throw your support behind those who are actively fighting against evil, wouldn't you agree?
We shouldn't confuse that with opportunism, because true opportunists are the ones who bend themselves to fit the evil.
Furthermore, idealism doesn't have to mean being so blinded by visions that we simply refuse to accept when evil wins.
And so on, and so forth...
Best,

Joshua Myers432 said:

Bryan Booth82 As I was saying:
No, that wasn't how it went last time.
The last time we went all in—back during the American Civil War—we kicked the invaders right out of our country.
I remember seeing people making these exact same arguments back then. It’s the same small group of people we see today—those who are convinced they're on the right side of history by backing Russia.😁

lp

Just more supporters of those Brussels puppets—the absolute Netflix generation. 🙂

Consider this a little boot camp for you lot, since it’s painfully obvious none of you have ever stepped foot in the US Army. If you actually plan on heading East, you might want to learn something before you end up a casualty on day one. All your endless keyboard warrior posturing and complaining about your thermostat being set two degrees too low in the winter isn't going to do a damn thing for Ukraine.

That is a remarkably narrow-minded perspective, implying that condemning Russian aggression somehow automatically necessitates putting on a uniform.
Fascinating.🤔

By that logic, wouldn't the "negatives" also include everyone who sided with the Americans during our own Civil War?🤔
If that isn't the case, I fail to see why Ukrainians feeling sympathy for the American Civil War would be seen as a negative, while we view our own Civil War as positive.🤔

The logic is simple: either both conflicts are inherently negative, or they are both inherently positive.

Honestly, trying to dismiss someone's perception using a tired, hackneyed cliché about the "Netflix generation" is just incredibly cheap, don't you think?
Furthermore, I am genuinely curious: what exactly makes you think you can judge whether someone has had military training just based on how they write online?
They used to say the exact same thing about the mustachioed officers back in the US Army.😁

Best regards,

swiftjackal11 said:We help by not being like you. You care more about how much cash stays in your pocket than the suffering of Ukrainians, all because they refuse to give up who they are.

Abigail, let me tell you something: selfishness, in any conceivable sense of the word, is never a virtue...

lp

Joshua Myers432 said:3, 2, 1 ... let's go, sandwich eaters.

You want to help Ukraine? Then how about a full mobilization of everyone under 40 across all NATO countries and sending them straight to the Eastern Front. It's not our first rodeo—the last time we stepped up, we ended up at Stalingrad!

Actually, that wasn't the last time.
The last time we truly mobilized was during the American Civil War, and we successfully drove the aggressors right out of our territory.
I distinctly remember back then there were people making similar arguments... just like there are today, a tiny minority who somehow believe the Russian side is actually in the right.😁

Best,

Donna Wells2 said:Honestly, I break out in hives whenever people start rambling about the "warm Slavic soul" or some nonsense about pan-Slavism.
Russia has a very "warm and fuzzy" way of treating everyone, especially other Slavic nations.
Everyone remembers them fondly—which is exactly why they were all so incredibly quick to run for the exits the second they got a fighting chance.

But the absolute peak of absurdity? It’s when the very same people you mentioned actually go so far as to label Putin a leftist.🤣🤣

lp

Donna Harris11 said:?

right now they actually have a budget surplus.

Emphasis on "right now."🤔
The real problem is that this whole "best performing currency" thing is a complete joke—you can't take it to the bank! I couldn't even buy basic necessities with it if I were stuck in Russia... let alone anything else. What good is a "top performer" on paper when real-world purchasing power is a disaster?

Best,

Gerald Torres84 said:That is the reality. The West essentially sanctioned itself, while things in Russia just seem to be steadily improving. They occasionally throw around threats of war against everyone who applied those sanctions, almost as if it were nothing more than a joke.
Oh, Milojko.

It doesn’t even stop there! The Russians start making gains after being absolutely hammered by the other side... and then they claim they never even intended to move in the first place! They lose the pride of their fleet—which just sinks on its own—they retreat from the islands, and suddenly they’re all showing "goodwill"? Give me a break!

lp

Isn't it just pathetic? The Ruble is never gaining any ground, and frankly, nobody even wants it...

lp

casualcrane20 said:On the other hand, let's hope we get back control over those oil fields we lost thanks to Hillary Clinton's brilliant maneuvers. That would be a real "thank you, Syria."

Us?
You mean in that "perfect little world" where everything "ours" actually belongs to us, and what's yours is mine, and what's mine is yours? The problem is, that’s nothing but a complete utopia.
Green Party

Larry Walker24 said:The first country to step up after Russia has officially recognized those two separatist republics in Ukraine—the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic.

Syria made the call to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk breakaway states, according to their own foreign ministry.

"The Syrian Arab Republic has decided to recognize the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic," they stated.

Back in mid-June, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad already announced he was kicking off the whole process.

God forbid, seriously—can you even imagine a world where Syria is the first one to recognize you?🤦
Honestly, I think being endorsed by Syria is somehow even worse than being steamrolled by Russia.
Best regards,

darkdriver said:I believe you
LP

👍
Since you clearly think I’m just incapable of grasping the topic, perhaps someone else—someone who actually managed to follow my logic—could explain what I was trying to say? I’ll leave that to the experts. With all due respect.
LP

darkdriver said:Just look at how those comrades are pushing for sanctions
Timberlake is basically just a total pushover for all your emotional outbursts
Seriously, you guys have everything—from tiny little bursts of drama to full-on religious litanies
LP
P.S.
I get it, though... you guys can't agree on what was actually said because if you did, half of your arguments would just fall apart

Honestly, even after reading through this again, I still haven't been able to wrap my head around what you were actually trying to say.

LP

darkdriver said:Didn't you guys all claim China would need another 30 or 40 years—if they ever actually make it—to catch up to the West? I mean, wasn't the consensus mostly that they’re just basically glorified photocopiers of Western tech, churning out cheap, low-quality junk?
First off, regarding the idea that your average Russian—who, let's be honest, most of you think is just out there grazing in fields, digging holes in the ground to go to the bathroom, melting glacier ice because there's no running water, and spreading lard on bread because they've never even heard of Nutella—is going to suffer because of these sanctions... yeah, right.
You guys are honestly such a textbook example of hypocrisy.

I honestly don't know if it's even possible to pack this much pathetic whining into such a short comment.🤔👍
LP