Posts by Gerald Carter53

I don't have much time; I'm still hunting for some value 😉

I’ve been reviewing my picks for the yellow card markets, and the one that stands out most to me is Lazio vs. Genoa to go over 4.5 yellows at @1.7 via DraftKings, a 7/10 confidence level (4) The referee seems decent enough, the teams are prone to cards, and their head-to-head history supports it. If I were the one setting the lines, I probably would have pushed it to 5.5, but honestly, I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on that higher threshold, so I expect this 4.5 line to be cleared easily.
As for the other matchups, I'm eyeing Hoffenheim vs. Wolfsburg to see over 3.5 cards, and Atletico vs. Villarreal to see over 5.5... considering my usual criteria, of course... referees, historical matchups, match importance, team styles, rivalries, and so on and so forth.

Good luck to everyone today! 🙂

-7

Mark Murphy79 said:And we're dealing with a referee who averages fewer than four yellow cards per match.
35 in 8

sent via LG G5

http://int.soccerway.com/referees/da...59448/matches/

Back in 2014, he officiated the Super Cup and handed out ten yellows, including a red following two cautions.

When these teams start playing with those reckless, bone-crunching tackles, even a lenient official will be forced to reach for his cards.

An expert? Hahaha, please, man, how on earth am I supposed to be able to call that accurately... There are certainly variables at play that might allow you to forecast an outcome, but even then, people lose bets just as easily on these matchups as they do on any other pairing, haha...
6.5 is a decent line. If he had said 5.5, I would have leaned toward the over. I’m not even sure if red cards are factored into that total!?! Personally, I tend to steer clear of this particular matchup. There’s also a 7.5 option available, which makes playing the under impossible for me.

Match 18:00 Dortmund vs Bayern
Over 3.5 yellow cards @1.45 on DraftKings, 7/10 win rate (5)

It’s a massive derby, and frankly, both sides are desperate for the points. Historically, these head-to-head matchups tend to get heated, frequently resulting in a high card count, especially since there are plenty of players on the pitch right now who seem prone to losing their cool...
The referee assigned looks like a perfect fit for this kind of intensity... http://int.soccerway.com/referees/tobias-stieler/45640/

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they even push past the 4.5 mark...

+3.15

I am not entirely convinced that betting on a clean sheet is worth it at those odds. One stray shot, a lucky penalty, or just some random fluke and your parlay goes up in smoke. In my estimation, the payout is far too low given the inherent risk involved. Best of luck, though. 🙂
That under might be a viable play; I might take 🙂

What are we all expecting from our squad tonight?
http://m.goal.com/s/hr/news/7081/hrv...facebook.com%2F
It really hinges on which lineup the Americans decide to field. I’ve been weighing the option of a draw or a single goal win... though, if I'm being honest, my gut usually leans toward a straight victory for us.

Edit: It looks like both Vida and Badelj have been dropped from the roster.

Frankly, this group hasn't even played together during training sessions at some local park playground.😉

The lineups have been released for the U19 match between America and Mexico. It looks like we're missing our entire starting midfield from those first two matches—that’s five players gone—plus our backup keeper is stepping into the net. As for the defense and the striker, they’re running with the same squad as before.
Mexico seems to be making only two changes to their lineup.

There is a rather thorough breakdown of the Icelandic side right here.
For a squad with such limited depth, losing two key players is a massive blow; they simply don't possess the roster flexibility that we enjoy back home. 🙂 If we were facing them, Finnbogason would likely have found it quite easy to find the back of the net, haha...

Precisely my thoughts... it really comes down to Cacic and his tactical approach.

Missing those two top scorers is a massive handicap for the Icelanders. I honestly don't see how they can bridge that gap on their own. Of course, that isn't to say they won't find the back of the net—they certainly have the capability. However, I fully expect them to sit back and play a more defensive, compact game, especially given those absences, looking to exploit opportunities through counter-attacks and transitional play. They could also prove dangerous during set pieces. There might even be some vulnerability on their flank where Pivaric is positioned, assuming he starts. It will be quite interesting to see if Cacic has actually prepared any tactical response to this situation...

James Taylor3 said:Will there be a lot of yellows or maybe even reds when the Gauchos face off against the Brazilians? You might want to dig into that a bit.
It’s common knowledge that they despise one another and things usually turn into a bloodbath, much like most South American matchups. 🤣

I have been mulling this over all day.🙂
Sure, they don't like each other, but if you look at their recent history, they've mostly been playing friendlies. While cards are always a possibility, those aren't high-stakes competitive matches. However, the last time they met in a meaningful way was during these qualifiers when Argentina played at home. It was a sea of yellow and red cards. And keep in mind, Messi wasn't even on the pitch, and he's usually a walking magnet for fouls. Even though Brazil is currently sitting at the top, Argentina isn't trailing by much. This match is critical, not just because of the rivalry, but because of the standings.
The referee is quite an intense character: http://int.soccerway.com/referees/ju...scunan/114047/
Looking at his statistics when officiating national teams, it’s clear he hands out a significant number of cards. He officiated that Argentina vs. Uruguay match where Dyabali picked up a red. I did a little digging, and it seems the Argentinians aren't exactly thrilled to have him calling the game...
http://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/d...a-brasil.shtml

There should definitely be some cards flying...

USA vs Chile
To be brief... South American sides always seem to possess such volatile temperaments; you constantly see aggressive tackles, heated arguments with the officials, and even little skirmishes between players on the same team, if you can believe it...
Looking at the standings, this match carries immense weight for both national teams. In just six days, the USA faces Argentina, while Chile takes on Uruguay... both are incredibly daunting fixtures. Historically, matches between these two sides tend to be absolute chaos defined by cards...

Over 4.5 yellow cards @1.55 9/10
Over 5.5 yellow cards @2.00 6/10
Red card @2.95 3/10
All via DraftKings

-18

Gerald Carter53 said:Champions League 20:45
FC Barcelona vs Manchester City
Red Card @4.65 Favorite
3/10

I’ll be watching this match tonight to add a bit of excitement to the evening 🙂
A few statistical observations... These two sides faced off back in 2014 during the Round of 16. In the first leg, we saw a red card and a penalty. The return leg produced nothing but a red card. They met again in the Round of 16 last year, where the first leg yielded both a red and a penalty, while the second leg saw only a penalty. Naturally, a Round of 16 knockout stage is a different beast than this third round of the group stage, but I am operating on the premise that both squads possess players prone to booking, especially given that the motivation and sheer desire to prove oneself in matches of this magnitude are significantly heightened. Tonight's official is Mazic, whom I personally consider an overrated referee, certainly no better than the ones we deal with here in the States. This season in European club competitions, he officiated the Super Cup between Real Madrid and Sevilla FC. That match saw a red card in extra time and a penalty. Later, during the Champions League qualifiers, he handled Rostov vs Ajax, which also resulted in a red and a penalty. His most recent Champions League group stage assignment was Benfica vs Besiktas, which remained relatively quiet without penalties or reds. Regardless, Mazic is a reliable choice when betting on yellow cards.
My second wager is that there will be a penalty @3.55 Favorite 3/10. I must commend the favorite for offering the best odds among our local sportsbooks for these specific markets, though it is a shame they don't allow for parlay combinations. I think I might attempt both bets together @11.52 , a 1/10 stake, just for fun. On a single ticket, I’m sure I can find an over 3.5 or 4.5 yellows at Wwin. Usually, Wwin counts a red card as two yellows, and two yellows resulting in a red counts as three yellows—unless they have altered the rules since the last time I placed a bet on cards.

+25.51

City vs Barca, UCL 20:45
It is difficult to expect everything to go according to plan again... Therefore, my previous reasoning still stands—I won't repeat myself, except regarding the officiating. This time, we have Kassai http://int.soccerway.com/referees/viktor-kassai/44678/
. This season, he has officiated two European matches, issuing a red card in both.
The favorite offers slightly lower odds this time.
Red Card @4.50 3/10
Penalty @3.20 3/10

And once again, putting it all on one combined play @11.52 1/10 just for fun
One should certainly look at the yellows again as well...

-7

Cologne vs Hamburg 5:30 PM
Over 3.5 Yellow Cards @1.70 SS (4)
6/10
To put it briefly... we have a solid line here. Had it been set at 4.5, I would have hesitated significantly on whether to pull the trigger. The referee is a bit of a wild card; he’s the type who occasionally decides to hand out cards with reckless abandon. My primary motivation for this play is Hamburg—they tend to rack up yellow cards in almost every single match due to their aggressive, physical style of play. I recall a recent cup match where they cruised to a 4-0 victory yet still walked away with five yellows. Cologne is generally more composed, though they aren't immune to picking up a card now and then. Historically, matchups between these two sides have been quite heavy on disciplinary action. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Hamburg alone pushes us over this threshold. They are fighting for survival in the standings, and that level of desperation breeds immense tension and pressure. In my estimation, this looks like a very promising setup.

+3.3

Chievo vs Bologna
Over 4.5 yellows @1.70 SS (4)
5/10

I find this line to be somewhat arbitrary. A threshold of 5.5 would feel much more grounded in reality, similar to how certain other bookmakers set their limits. It is highly probable that SS will eventually adjust this figure. Both sides are prone to cards, particularly Chievo, whom I expect will easily push us past this limit, especially given it is the final round. Furthermore, the referee is quite prolific when it comes to issuing cards.
http://int.soccerway.com/referees/fa...94692/matches/
He typically officiates in the second division, though he occasionally gets called up to the first division, as seen today.
Last year, back in December, we saw a match involving Chievo against Atalanta where things boiled over—6 yellows and 2 reds were handed out.

-5

Cork City vs. Wexford Youths

From the home side's official site:
http://www.corkcityfc.ie/home/2016/1...youths-game-2/

To put it briefly, this is a rescheduled fixture. Normally, there would be one round left in the season, but here we are. The home team is effectively stuck in second place—they can't move up, and they certainly won't drop down. As for the visitors, their situation is desperate; they absolutely must win tonight and then win their next match while praying for a loss from Finn in the final round just to stay in the league. If they don't manage that, they'll be heading straight into the relegation playoffs. They played a scoreless 0-0 draw against Finn at home over the weekend, which really tightened the noose around their necks regarding direct survival. The hosts are currently focusing their energy on the cup final on November 6th, but they’ve signaled some roster shifts, including bringing up three players from the U19 squad tonight, alongside a few other absences. Motivation for the home side might stem from it being their last game in front of their own supporters, or perhaps fringe players seeing this as a chance to prove themselves. However, the visitors undoubtedly carry the heavier burden of motivation. They’ve already proven they can handle this opponent; they held them to a 0-0 draw earlier in the season, and they edged out a 1-0 win at home during the latter half. According to the link provided, the home side expects the visitors to abandon their usual defensive, counter-attacking style and instead play an open, attacking game from the whistle.
Looking at our local bookmakers, SS offers the best odds for the away side to score @ 2. A slightly more conservative approach might be betting that the visitors won't lose by more than two goals @ 1.40 at PSK. If we truly expect an open game, then goals should definitely be on the table.
There might be some value to be extracted from this matchup 🙂

Finland 1. Liga
14:00h
HJK - SJK
over 3+ YES @2 wwin
5/10

The final round of the season brings several matches where the stakes couldn't be higher. One such encounter is this clash between the 2nd and 3rd placed teams in the league, a match where a victory could potentially secure the championship title—provided the leaders, Mariehamn, suffer a slip-up. Since it kicks off at 2:00 PM, I won't dwell too extensively on the details. You can look up their head-to-head history yourselves; they frequently engage in high-scoring affairs. Their recent league outings have followed a similar pattern, particularly for SJK. Both sides possess quite an offensive edge. In my estimation, this match might mirror the intensity we see in the games between the Sweden U21 and American youth national teams. We should expect open, attacking play here. I have settled on over 3+ goals, though I am still weighing other options like over 1.5 in the second half or even over 4+. I will give those more thought. However, teams with this level of firepower and this much to play for generally produce efficient, high-scoring performances. Naturally, they will be keeping a close eye on the Mariehamn scoreline, and I am hopeful that game remains interesting enough to ensure both sides maintain their motivation to win. There are several other intriguing matchups on the board, so do take a look; perhaps something catches your eye. 🙂

+5

LP 20:45
FC Barcelona - Manchester City
Red Card DA @4,65 Favorit
3/10

I’ll be watching this match tonight; hopefully, it provides some semblance of excitement. 🙂
A few statistical observations... These two sides last met back in 2014 during the Round of 16. In the first leg, we saw a red card and a penalty. The return leg? Just a red card. They crossed paths again in the Round of 16 last year, where the first leg produced both a red and a penalty, while the second leg saw only a penalty. Of course, a Round of 16 knockout stage isn't quite the same as this third round of the group stage, but I am operating on the premise that both squads possess players who are prime candidates for cards, especially given that the motivation and hunger to prove oneself in matches of this caliber are invariably higher. Tonight’s referee is Mazic; in my estimation, he is an overrated official, not significantly better than the referees we see here in the States. This season in European club competitions, he officiated the Super Cup between Real Madrid and Sevilla FC. That match saw a red card in extra time and a penalty. He also handled the Rostov vs Ajax qualifying match, which featured both a red card and a penalty. His most recent Champions League group stage fixture was Benfica vs Besiktas, which was relatively quiet—no penalties or red cards. Regardless, Mazic is a reliable choice when betting on yellow cards.
My second wager is that there will be a penalty @3,55 Favorit 3/10. I must give credit to the favorite for offering the best odds among our domestic sportsbooks for these specific markets, though it is a shame they don't allow for parlays. I might attempt to combine both bets together @11,52, though I'd rate that at a 1/10 probability—just pure speculation. On one of my slips, I'll certainly find a play for over 3.5 or 4.5 yellows at Wwin. As I recall, Wwin counts a red card as two yellows, and two yellows plus a red counts as three yellows. Unless, of course, their rules regarding card counting have changed since the last time I placed a bet on them.

+25,51

What can we actually say about this matchup between the U21 squads? Neither Sweden nor our boys seem to be finding any rhythm lately. You’d expect an open game from both sides, which usually means goals, but there's a real chance they'll play it safe early on—nobody wants to be the one to concede first when a 1-0 lead is all you need. Both teams are dealing with significant absences, too. It really comes down to which side feels the loss more heavily. That said, Sweden has been a pleasant surprise in these qualifiers; they're still undefeated.
Ever since Perica joined the national squad, he's been absolutely tearing it up... honestly, he's scored in all four of his last appearances. I'm genuinely holding out hope that he can be the catalyst to carry us through to the Euros. Though, looking at the standings, securing second place isn't even our biggest concern. Spain should have no trouble dispatching Estonia, despite their own few missing players. Spain might just take the liberty to run up the score there.

October 10, 2016
8:45 PM
World Cup qualification
Canada-Cyprus
over 3.5 yellows @1.75 SS (4)
5/10

It has been quite some time since I last placed a wager on cards.🙂
I am anticipating a high-intensity, aggressive match tonight, and frankly, the odds offered on Canada seem laughably generous. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they fail to secure a victory. After their blowout against Estonia in the opening round, Canada was quickly brought back down to earth by Belgium, conceding four goals. In that match against Estonia, they only saw a single yellow card out of three total; however, against Belgium, they picked up three yellows out of four. Meanwhile, Cyprus has stumbled out of the gate with two losses. I had hoped for at least a goal from them, but they seemingly only managed to collect yellow cards.🙂 During their home match against Belgium, they racked up 4 yellows out of 5, and in their matchup against Greece, it was 4 out of 4.
In the previous qualifying matches involving these two nations, both games exceeded this specific threshold for yellow cards.
The referee assigned for tonight is Estrada. He is an excellent choice for those looking to bet on cards, as he has a reputation for being quite strict, frequently penalizing players who dare to protest or argue his decisions.
http://int.soccerway.com/referees/ja...rnandez/60734/
Given my expectation of a physical, heated encounter, there ought to be plenty of cards issued. Player fatigue will likely play its part in escalating the tension as well.
I also anticipate goals on both sides, so there is absolutely no way I am playing it safe with a single outcome given how poor the odds are for a straight win.

+2.95

Everything seems to be leaning in our favor against Mexico. Perhaps we might see a repeat of 🙂
In my estimation, had we possessed both Modrić and Raketić on the pitch, we would have maintained significantly higher possession, effectively forcing Mexico into a much more compact, defensive shape. In this match, our inability to control the ball allowed them too much room to breathe and stretch the field, making it far too easy for them to penetrate our lines. It is possible we will see a similar pattern today. I doubt even Bill Gates could compensate for those missing pieces in the lineup. Honestly, I am feeling quite tempted by those three-to-one odds for a heavier wager. The results we've witnessed over the last few days have been nothing short of sobering...