Posts by casualrider

Angelina Jolie said:Hey everyone, does anyone know how things stand with withdrawing winnings from offshore sportsbooks directly into a US bank account? Since the tax laws changed back in 2014, the IRS and the rest of the tax authorities see every single cent we pull in. There’s a real risk they could come down hard on those kinds of transactions. What do you guys think?

Online sportsbook -> PayPal -> Wire transfer

🙂

Catolica (Over 2.5 goals) vs. Espanola @ 1.70 (DraftKings) (1-0)

Even though these teams haven't been lighting up the scoreboard much lately, we're looking at a fresh season here. When these two meet, they usually turn it into a shootout—we've seen them clear the 2.5 line easily, sometimes even clearing it by three or more. Looking back at their last ten head-to-head matchups, eight of them went over 2.5 goals. We’re only in week two, and in the opening round, Catolica pulled off a 2-1 win while the visitors settled for a 1-1 draw.

Zenit(2,5)-Turkey Over @1.65 (1-3)

First off, even though only one out of the four memorial matches involving these squads has hit the over so far, I’m taking this because it’s essentially a winner-takes-all scenario for progression. Zenit is playing at home, so they’ll definitely have the crowd behind them. In the opening round, they absolutely dismantled Latvia 4-0—and interestingly, Latvia later pulled an upset by beating Turkey 1-0 late in the game. In the second round, Zenit played to a 0-0 draw against Ukraine. Meanwhile, Turkey has been struggling to find the back of the net; they only managed one goal against Ukraine, and as I mentioned, they dropped one to Latvia. Looking at the standings, Zenit sits in first with 4 points, while Turkey is in second with 3 (though Ukraine and Latvia still have games left). The top team moves straight through, while whoever finishes second ends up fighting just to scrape into those 5th through 8th spots. The oddsmakers have Turkey as slight favorites, which isn't crazy given that if they take an early lead, Zenit will be forced to chase the game. Either way, if we see just one goal in the first half, I'm feeling very good about the over hitting.

Seattle Sounders vs. Portland Timbers 1@1.35 (1-0)

Just a little something to bump up the odds on my parlay. Honestly, looking at how these teams have been playing lately, I don't see any surprises coming here. Seattle is riding high with three wins in a row, while the visitors haven't managed anything more than a single draw in their last five outings.
When you break down the home versus away splits, the picture becomes crystal clear.

12.15.13 MLS Seattle Bologna 3 : 0
12.12.13 CONCACAF Seattle Dnipro 2 : 1
12.02.13 MLS Seattle Verona 4 : 3
11.10.13 MLS Seattle Sampdoria 2 : 1

12.15.13 MLS Lazio Portland 2 : 0
12.01.13 MLS Chievo Portland 3 : 0
11.09.13 MLS Inter Portland 2 : 0
10.27.13 MLS Bologna Portland 1 : 0
10.06.13 MLS Napoli Portland 4 : 0

And finally, the head-to-head matchups:
02.21.10 MLS Seattle Portland 2 : 1
09.26.09 MLS Portland Seattle 0 : 1
02.27.08 MLS Seattle Portland 1 : 0
09.29.07 MLS Portland Seattle 0 : 3
01.28.07 MLS Seattle Portland 2 : 1

Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins 1@1.55 (DraftKings) (0-0)

I honestly expected the odds for the home team to be a bit shorter, but this is actually looking like even better value.
The Mariners are sitting right in the thick of it, tied up in points with both the 3rd and 5th place teams. Over the first 12 games, they've picked up five wins, and four of those came right here at home. They aren't exactly scoring a ton, but their defense is solid—they've only let in three goals across seven home matches.
As for the visitors, calling them a disaster is being generous, which is why I'm surprised the odds aren't lower. They’ve managed a measly four points out of a possible 36, and they haven't managed a single win yet. They're giving up nearly two goals per game on average. After two draws in their last five outings, they're now staring at a three-game losing streak. I really don't see them walking away with anything from this one.

Manchester United (-2+) - Tottenham Hotspur X2 @ 1.20 (1-2)
I’ve really been liking this over 1.5 goals option lately. It’s become a bit of a staple on my betting slips.
Manchester United is on a roll right now. They’ve pulled off four wins in a row, and if you factor in the Champions League and the Carabao Cup, that streak jumps to six. They have momentum, so I’m expecting them to find the back of the net at least once today. The visitors aren't lagging behind either. They’ve won four straight away games, including one in the Europa League, where they hammered home nine goals—that's nearly two per match. When you look at their last five head-to-head matchups, three went over 2.5 goals and two went over 1.5. To me, this looks like a solid play.

09.29.12 PRE Manchester United Tottenham Hotspur 2 : 3
08.22.11 PRE Manchester United Tottenham Hotspur 3 : 0
10.30.10 PRE Manchester United Tottenham Hotspur 2 : 0
04.24.10 PRE Manchester United Tottenham Hotspur 3 : 1
12.01.09 CAP Manchester United Tottenham Hotspur 2 : 0

Southampton FC (-2+) - Chelsea FC X2 @ 1.25 (0-3)
Another game like this, though looking at their recent history, this one might actually be even more predictable.

12.01.13 PRE Chelsea FC Southampton FC 3 : 1
03.30.13 PRE Southampton FC Chelsea FC 2 : 1
01.16.13 PRE Chelsea FC Southampton FC 2 : 2
01.05.13 FAC Southampton FC Chelsea FC 1 : 5
04.02.05 PRE Southampton FC Chelsea FC 1 : 3

So, all five of those ended with goals, and four of them actually cleared the 3.5 mark...
In their last five home games, Southampton FC has a goal difference of 11:8. They’re scoring regularly, but they’re also giving up goals just as often. It’s a very similar story with Chelsea FC; when they play away, they almost always manage to score. Their only outlier was that recent trip to Arsenal FC which ended in a 0-0 stalemate.

Peterborough United (2.5) - Brentford FC (1-3)
Both teams are sitting pretty at 5th and 1st respectively, and while they are incredibly efficient offensively, they both seem to leave the door wide open defensively.
Just looking at the last five matches, Peterborough United has a goal difference of 10:9, while the visitors sit at 12:6.
Their head-to-head history tells the same story. Out of their last five meetings, four finished with scores like 1-2 or 2-1, and one was a 3-2 thriller.
The "over" bets are looking like a good value play here, especially at 1.80. I definitely have to give this a shot.

11.26.13 LEA Brentford FC Peterborough United 3 : 2
10.08.13 JOH Peterborough United Brentford FC 2 : 1
01.11.11 LEA Peterborough United Brentford FC 2 : 1
10.23.10 LEA Brentford FC Peterborough United 2 : 1
03.11.08 LEA Brentford FC Peterborough United 1 : 2