Posts by ruggedpilot5

Look, if I were you, I’d steer clear of that money. It feels like a total trap to me. Everyone sees exactly what you're seeing—including the guys at the betting shops—so why on earth would they set the odds like this? I'm not saying your logic is flawed—it makes sense, really—but from everything I've learned the hard way, these kinds of spots are best avoided. Betting sites don't just pull these kinds of stunts for the hell of it. Without some kind of insider info we don't have, a fair price for Kazan would probably be closer to 2.20, maybe even a bit lower than that, right?

Gonna try something a little different this time:

Colombia 2nd Division
Depor vs Valledupar @ 2.00 (1-0)
Real Santander vs Barranquilla @ 2.00 (0-0)
U. Magdalena vs América de Cali @ 2.00 (2-1)
All three matches to go Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half
@ 8.09

Here’s the logic... This is basically a goal-scoring window for the Colombian second division. It doesn't happen every single time, obviously, but when the stars align—like when the moon phases and certain biological cycles sync up perfectly—and you get three teams currently in a scoring drought all scheduled for that traditionally high-scoring Sunday night slot at 10 PM...

That’s when you start looking for those "out of the box" plays. Like, for example, expecting two goals in the first half for all three of these games.

I actually thought about parlaying this whole thing together for an Over 1.5 first-half total—that would’ve been a massive odd of around 30 (!!) —but Bet365 isn't offering that specific combo right now, and honestly, this little play here has some pretty decent value too...

So I'm playing the Over 0.5 goals in the 1st half for each , and the odds should be around 2.90 (maybe even higher) once Bet365 puts these matches into their live betting menu... once they do, you'll be able to grab the Over 0.5 for each individual game.

11/21 ; 2.41

Cruz Azul vs UNAM +0, 2.30 (Score 2:1) (sbobet, pinny)
over 1 first half, 1.98 (1-1) (sbobet)
I'm playing for a UNAM win with a draw insurance—basically a double chance. Honestly, looking at this, it feels almost stupid—the bottom-dwellers facing the top guys, and the bottom team is actually the favorite?
But hey, things work differently in Mexico; actually, in all of North America, the home field advantage is massive. It probably comes down to how these teams approach away games and their general philosophy toward the sport, but that's a whole other rabbit hole...

Anyway, here’s the deal: Cruz is sitting dead last with only 7 points from 8 rounds and a mountain of losses (they've dropped 4 of their last 5), while UNAM is cruising along, winning easily and scoring goals like they haven't seen in years...

What else should you know? The last time UNAM actually beat Azul was back in 2012. But obviously, UNAM hasn't been this dominant in recent memory, and Azul hasn't been this out of it...

Cruz is the bigger name, though I suspect there might be some internal drama going on in the locker room. I'm trying to dig up some extra dirt, but it's tough—the bookies aren't idiots, so they aren't going to offer these kinds of odds given the standings. Everyone can see something's off here...

That said, let's just look at the most basic, most crucial facts about UNAM:
=> they aren't playing in the Copa Libertadores,
=> they were basically knocked out of the cup a week before the end of the group stage
=> they already have 2 away wins out of 4, which is a solid average for Mexico

Look, Cruz won't lose forever, and UNAM won't win every single game either. This isn't a true reflection of Azul's actual quality or reputation... but we all know what it looks like when a big or mid-sized club is just waiting for things to click... happens every season, really...

edit:

Lineups are out:



Looks pretty aggressive offensively, so I'm adding an over on the first half

11/19 ; 2,41

Peñarol vs Racing Club over 3, 2.025 (3-1) (bet365)
Peñarol—basically the biggest name out of Uruguay—has been absolutely tearing it up in this spring stretch of the League. Just look at the numbers: 4:1, 3:1, 2:2, 2:1, 3:0, 3:1... those are their last six results alone...

Racing Club is always an open, attacking side anyway, and honestly, their h2h history shows they’ve always had a knack for high-scoring affairs.

B365 is sitting at 1.61 for over 3 goals, which I guess is decent value, but I’m leaning toward this 2.025 option instead.

10/17 ; 2,45

Kapfenberg vs. Wacker - Over 3.5 goals, 2.75 (1-4) (b365)
The Austrians seem to be in a real scoring mood lately—took long enough for them to finally wake up, but today three out of four matches hit that 4+ goal mark. Besides, Kapfenberg and Wacker have been absolute goal machines this season anyway...
Pretty sweet setup if you're looking to chase some goals.

9/16 ; 2,58

Marquense vs Xelaju Over 2.5 @ 2.00 (psk) (1-0)

Honestly, I didn't get around to posting this earlier—anyway, the home side is on this insane winning streak with the overs, plus they’re easily one of the most high-scoring squads in the league. To me, this looks like solid value (even if you factor in all the recent injuries)

Philadelphia vs Chicago Over 3 @ 2.56 (3-3) (pinny)
Just a few days ago, these two played a cup match, also in Philly, and it ended a measly 1-0. I took a look at the stats from that game, and it looked something like this:

http://i58.tinypic.com/oa17uu

I mean, raw shot stats are just numbers on a page, but when you actually dig into the chart showing where those shots were coming from and what kind of attempts they were, you can see there should have been way more goals than just that single one.

Now, just three days later, we've got the same teams on the same pitch. In the players' subconscious, those patterns stick—and experience tells me that in situations like this, chances tend to open up easier. We just need them to create as many opportunities as they did three days ago, because there's no way they're going to keep missing like that.

So, yeah... expecting things to open up a bit today...

6/10 ; 2.59

A little something to wrap up the day:

Unión de Santa Fe - Racing Club
over 2.5 @ 2.56 (1-2) at Dimes, 2.45 at Pinnacle (2.40 gross / 2.15 net in the screenshot, so you guys can figure out that math difference itself)
Santa Fe is a pretty weird outfit for Argentina—they usually lean toward this wide-open style of play. They’re at their best in the first half; once they get going, it’s incredibly hard to park the bus against them when they're trying to seize control early. That means they tend to leak goals too, but on the flip side, Racing seems to love playing in that kind of chaos this season. Honestly, I think this line is way too generous for what I’m expecting from this match.

By the way, the online odds are cratering—on Pinnacle, it’s dropped from an opening 2.79 down to 2.46 right now!!

Kickoff is at 11:10 PM

Mogi Mirim - Luverdense 3+, 2.24 Pinny (1-1)
I’m not exactly feeling Mogi Mirim's opponent here. They're one of the most aggressive teams in the Brazilian second division—basically the ultimate underdogs—but even so, I think the price here is totally unrealistic. You aren't looking at some cautious, boring slog between two mediocre sides with zero ambition!

Besides, Mogi has been sitting at 13-7 on this specific margin this season and has been hitting plenty of overs lately. I know chasing overs in this league is a nightmare, but even then, the over shouldn't be such a massive underdog if anything.

Dorados de Sinaloa - Monterrey 3+, 2.09 (1-4)(pinny, 5dimes)
Everything Monterrey has played this summer has gone over 2.5, sometimes even blowing past the 3+ mark entirely. The Dorados guys are the newcomers in the league, and you'd expect them to show a slightly different approach at home, so this could technically be Monterrey's first "under" game of this phase of the season... but is that actually more likely than the alternative? Not in my book. I'm taking this price because it just doesn't reflect what I expect to see on the pitch.

Plus, this matchup just feels right, and in goal totals betting, that gut feeling about the matchup is everything. Dorados used to be one of the most clinical sides in the second division for years.

5/8 ; 2.60

Yeah, before they finally get their hands on PayPal too... you really think they won't try to pull some move to put that under their thumb eventually?

Benjamin White said:So I actually reached out to Bet365, and here's the gist—they basically don't give a damn about our local regulations. They'll still let you place bets and do your thing, but they make it super clear that if you end up getting slapped with a fine because of some "local" legal technicality, that's entirely on you. They aren't taking the heat for your own backyard issues. You're welcome at their place, sure, but you're flying solo when it comes to the law...

Exactly. It’s all fine until the government starts breathing down their necks and demanding access to the user registry or specific player data to see who's been playing...

slybison8 said:I’m not so sure that’s the best way to play this. Sending queries like that might just scare them off—basically fast-tracking them to block all customers from America, which is pretty much what that response from Pinnacle implies.

The alternative I’d suggest? Reach out to a specific representative in the European Parliament from either Gibraltar or Malta. Now, Gibraltar only has one rep (from the South West England district) and they’re with UKIP, so I could probably reach out to them myself—honestly, I might just do it. 🙂

Malta has a few reps—usually, it’s a smart move to hit up representatives from the same political party currently holding power in Malta. You should be asking for their take on how the American IRS is handling online betting through bookmakers registered in their jurisdictions, especially since everything is being done in full compliance with EU law. It’s directly in their interest to look into this because we're talking about the interests of companies registered right in their own backyard. You can even forward the correspondence to local media in those countries just to give the representative some extra incentive to actually deal with the inquiry.

I’m really curious to see if you actually get a reply, but man, props to you for the idea and the mindset. 🙂

As for contacting the bookmakers themselves... look, sooner or later they’re going to block us and stop taking bets if that’s where they stand. One email isn't going to change the whole game, unless maybe it speeds up the inevitable.

On the bright side, at least we’ll know what’s coming and can start planning our strategy accordingly.

But let's be real, it’s hard to imagine Pinnacle responding with something like:

"Yeah, we're aware of the legal framework in America, but we've decided to ignore the American legal order anyway, so we're gonna keep taking players from the US." 🤣
So, sending an email like that basically has one consequence and one possible outcome... though, I was thinking of approaching it a bit differently—much more discreetly, you know?

jadesailor said:What if you just pull cash from an ATM using a Skrill card while you're out in, say, Texas? Does that work too? Let’s not talk nonsense here.

Hey, don't be so harsh—I was just trying to point out that we shouldn't get too hung up on all these different "workarounds." When the government sets its mind on something, they make it happen. Especially this neoliberal, fascist-lite entity we're living under, which is probably going to get even more authoritarian than it already is in about a year.😢

For now, do what you can while you can. Nobody’s guaranteeing any of this will still be an option down the road...

slybison8 said:My friend, you have completely missed the entire point.

The US is basically the villain in this scenario—because of how things are set up here, domestic betting sites can't actually compete with the international giants. If the US wants to fix this, it needs to cut down on the red tape and taxes, realize it's part of a much larger global market, and then it won't have such a hard time with all that capital bleeding out to foreign bookies.

Why doesn't the US just write a legal framework that would allow UPS to go toe-to-toe with bwin in foreign markets? That way, instead of losing money, the tax revenue from those profits would stay right here in our own treasury.

UPS is ready for it—they've had their websites updated with English versions for ages. It's the government that's standing in their way, preventing them from making money abroad. These ridiculous, overreaching laws end up squeezing both the local bookies and the players.

The state needs to grasp one simple thing: people bet for themselves. Players want to win money they can actually spend. They aren't betting for the government, and they couldn't care less whether the state grabs a cut or not. They will always find a way to bypass these absurd, Gestapo-style regulations.

🙂

And why would the US ever write a framework that allows a private company—one that isn't cozying up to political power brokers—to succeed? Anything other than a quick trip to bankruptcy?
They could enable something like that for the Lottery, sure, but that would mean opening the door to competition. And why would they want competition for a state-run monopoly that exists specifically so they can funnel cash through shady channels and then "bail it out" later?

It sounds like they're sawing off the very branch they're sitting on—or more accurately, cutting off the hand that reaches into everyone else's pockets!

Honestly, I think it's smarter for all of us to focus on selling our skills to foreigners who can still access online betting without all this headache.

Btw, has anyone thought about asking one of the big-name online bookmakers what they think about all this?

Anthony Garcia12 said:I just pull my cash from ATMs using my PayPal card and call it a day—totally chill. Nobody can touch me unless some random US sportsbook decides to hand over a full list of their users to the feds, which, let's be real, isn't happening.

Look, anything is possible if the government actually decides to get aggressive about it—that's why you gotta stop talking about these methods out in the open...

ironpanther said:that’s why I’m saying—the law needs more fine-tuning—it’s not even an issue, just like how it wasn't an issue for them to slap a tax on every single cent of profit

I honestly think we still have plenty of options here in the US, and I wouldn't call the selection bad. Just look at our neighbors in Canada—they’ve got laws set up where only one single entity, a state-run lottery, is allowed to run betting in the whole country. What would those guys even have to say about it?

Saying the selection isn't bad is something only someone who doesn't know the first thing about gambling could say—or someone intentionally lying to us about what domestic books actually offer.

The selection is so much worse than what foreign sites offer that it puts American citizens in a seriously unfair position compared to people living in countries where these online companies are totally legal.

Actually, nobody has ever even bothered to write about this publicly in any of our media outlets—how betting through local American books almost GUARANTEES long-term financial ruin.

As for regulations—how on earth is the government supposed to track the origin of money coming through PayPal without sending a formal request to PayPal to see the user's private info (which, in my opinion, PayPal would unfortunately comply with)??

Besides, the letter of the law says it's forbidden to deposit from within the USA:

1. the government can't prove I deposited anything if I just hold an account with an online book or if I simply sent a payment to that book...

2. they can't prove I was actually making those deposits from US soil

Both of those points could be proven if they had access to the private data held by the online company. But why would that company hand that over to the American IRS? Look, I'm no expert in international law, maybe there really is some statute that covers this...

If not—the US can ask, say, FanDuel to stop taking players from the States, but at the end of the day, it's their call whether they actually stop doing it or not.

My point is, as things stand right now, the government can't prove basically anything based on how this law is written, and it's nothing but a total cash grab.

The other problem, though, is that we all know how our legal system works, and I wouldn't be surprised if rulings are handed down based more on "the spirit of the law" than the actual text.

Tyler Taylor82 said:That doesn't fly. Every country can set its own rules for online betting. We should be focusing on other stuff—like payments coming out of the US, for example.

Hmm, I don't know about that. It’s not quite that simple.

As for those payments from the US... look, I use a VPN, so technically, as far as the internet is concerned, I'm placing my bets from whatever location the software assigns me an IP for.

Besides, how would the government even track an IP address like that? For that to work, they’d basically need direct access to my sportsbook account, and does that even happen? Is FanDuel actually obligated to hand over their users' private data to the IRS?

I'm not buying it. I don't see any international law that would force them to do that—especially since they're registered over in Puerto Rico.

Man, whatever... we’re heading straight to the European Commission, and honestly? It’s about damn time we put an end to this fascism.

Time to set up camp, or so my buddy tells me 🙂
but he’s being dead serious about it this time...

anyway, is there any way to use PayPal instead of just doing a boring old bank transfer?

Is there any way to actually load cash onto my PayPal account using an ATM with the card?

What is there even to talk about? Nobody actually knows what these specific "measures" are supposed to be—I mean, how could they? And honestly, who knows if this threat is even legit to begin with...

In a few weeks—or maybe months, depending on how things shake out—we’ll see if anyone in our little circle of contacts actually gets caught and slapped with a penalty, and what kind of nonsense they were pulling to get flagged in the first place.

Look, if someone is playing by the rules, the only way you’d even catch them is if the government demanded every single online sportsbook in the States hand over a list of all their users based here. I don't even know if those companies are legally obligated to cough up that kind of data...