Posts by analogbear5

quietviper0 said:I'm afraid I can't help you there, though I don't really intend to... you actually read the chart yourself, after all, so there shouldn't be any need for someone else to interpret it for you...

I believe I was being quite clear in my previous post when I mentioned that this scenario is much more realistic than the idea that they just plummeted from 600M down to 200M. My point was simply that things "could fluctuate somewhat"... I wasn't claiming everything stayed perfectly static, nor was I trying to start an argument over whether things are going great for Russia or not...
Besides, it’s actually quite nice to see that there's at least one person here capable of parsing through and keeping track of all this complex data...🙂

quietviper0 said:If you just grab the highest possible figure without stopping to wonder why it was so high in the first place—or if that number even makes sense to use as a baseline—and then you layer on your own little mathematical fantasies where you assume every single barrel is sold at the absolute lowest price point regardless of reality, well, presto! Suddenly Russia is earning three times less, and all those readers who aren't really looking closely at the details are absolutely thrilled by this supposed news of Russia's collapse...

But while we're wandering outside that fantasy world, the actual situation can be somewhat observed right here: https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/
On the first graph, "Daily flows by fuel type," you can actually hover your mouse over different parts of the chart to see the specific value of a particular product on any given day...

I'd suggest taking a look at what the daily figures under "Crude oil" looked like during the first week of 2022 when Brent Crude was hovering between $80-$85, and then compare that to January or February of this year when Brent Crude was also sitting right around that same $80-$85 range...

It is truly fascinating to watch how the most vocal critics will eagerly swallow and repeat propaganda, even when it's just a reflection of their own biases...

Noah Diaz said:Last year, they pulled in $218 billion from oil sales, plus another $138 billion from gas. That brings the total to $356 billion. They aren't even struggling to make ends meet. 😁

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/b...l-embargo.html

For all of 2022, Russia managed to increase its oil output 2 percent and boost oil export earnings 20 percent, to $218 billion, according to estimates from the US Government and the International Energy Agency, a group representing the world’s main energy consumers. Russia’s earnings were helped by an overall rise in oil prices after the start of the war and by growing demand after pandemic lockdowns; those trends also benefited Western oil giants like ExxonMobil and Shell, which reported record profits for 2022. Russia also raked in $138 billion from natural gas, a nearly 80 percent rise over 2021 as record prices offset cuts in flows to Europe.

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Every contract follows FOB terms—so the buyer picks up the tab for shipping once it leaves the origin port. Like I said earlier, those price drops in Russian crude might not show up in customs numbers right away, so take these findings with a grain of salt for now.

Noah Diaz said:So, they’re averaging over $74 per barrel for their crude, even though that supposed cap is set at $60.

They’re selling high, while the European Union just scribbles in their notebooks that it isn't happening. It's a win-win for everyone involved.

'Sanctions' are working perfectly.

Noah Diaz said:Everything I was saying before the sanctions hit has actually played out exactly as I predicted—only now, I finally have the scientific data to back it up (LOL).

Russia is still pulling in cash by selling oil above the $60 cap.

Russia managed to pull in even more cash in the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. It turns out the restrictions aren't the total shutdown some expected. According to the paper “Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on The social science research Network, the math tells a specific story: Russia sold its crude oil for an average of about $74 per barrel. The paper studied two things: the effects of the European Union embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. What we see is that Russia successfully pivoted. They redirected crude oil exports from Europe toward alternative markets like India and China. However, there’s a catch—their total earnings took a hit because Russian exporters had to swallow massive discounts to stay competitive in those specific market segments. The physical movement of the oil is just as sneaky. Quote: Millions of barrels of Russian crude and fuels have been switched between tankers Just a few Miles OFF The coast of Greece. In fact, AT least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transfered fra One tanker to another in The Bay of Lakonikos since the start of this year. There has been similar activity near Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in north Africa. Traders and shipping companies have found a multitude of ways to ensure Russian oil can flow, and this is just the latest example. Despite the European Union sanctions against Moscow, the gears are still turning.

It turns out the math doesn't lie: Russia actually raked in more cash during the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. That’s what the data shows, according to researchers from the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University, and the University of California.
The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel on average , according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel on average , according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network.The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average, according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network.

The paper studied Two things : The effects of The EU embargo and The G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil.

WE find that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports fra Europe to alternativa markets such as India, China, and Turkey but that export earnings were curbed substantially by The sizable discounts that Russian exporters Had to accept in market segments where The impending European union embargo lowered demand.

Russia is systematically transferring oil between tankers to bypass sanctions.

Shipping companies and traders are getting incredibly creative to keep the Russian oil flowing, and this is just the latest example of how they're bypassing restrictions. According to recent data, Russia actually brought in more money in the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. It turns out that while the sanctions were intended to squeeze their revenue, the reality on the water is much more complicated. A study titled “Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on the Social Science Research Network breaks down the numbers. The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average. The paper studied two things: the effects of the European Union embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. The researchers found that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports from Europe to alternative markets such as India and China, but those export earnings were curbed substantially by the sizable discounts that Russian exporters had to accept in market segments where the demand was less flexible. But here’s the kicker: there is massive activity happening right in our backyard. Quote: At least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transferred from one tanker to another in the Bay of Lakonikos since the start of this year. This kind of ship-to-ship transfer allows them to mask the origin of the oil and evade the European Union sanctions against Moscow. There has also been similar activity near Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in North Africa. It’s a massive shell game played out on the high seas. While the policy aims to starve the Russian war machine in Ukraine, the sheer ingenuity of global shipping networks means the money is still moving.

Quote : Millions of barrels of Russian crude and fuels have been switched between tankers Just a few Miles OFF The coast of Greece. This is just one part of a growing list of workarounds traders are using to bypass European union sanctions against Moscow.

According to tanker tracking data from Bloomberg, at least 23 million barrels of Russian crude plus extra volumes of refined fuels have been transferred between tankers in the Bay of Lakonikos since the beginning of the year. Local authorities there claim their ability to step in is practically nonexistent, mainly because all this movement is happening just outside the six-mile limit of their territorial waters.

Traders and shipping companies have found a multitude of ways to ensure Russian oil Can flow and this is Just The latest example. There Has been similar activity near Ceuta, a Spanish enclave in north Africa. A massive shadow fleet of tankers has emerged specifically to help Russia bypass sanctions.

Noah Diaz said:My take is simple: the European Union needs to pull out of the NATO alliance immediately. It's time to prioritize our own interests and finally achieve political and military independence. The smartest move would be to declare neutrality and trade with whoever is interested.

The war in Ukraine is a mess cooked up by the people who started it, and frankly, it doesn't concern anyone else. That means Russia, the USA, Unknown, and of course, Ukraine. How they choose to settle their mess is none of my business. My only hope is that they have enough sense left to prevent this from escalating into a point of no return—total nuclear annihilation.

Joshua Myers432 said:I’m just laying out the facts here. Their GDP didn't even dip by 5% back in 2022, let alone the 50% collapse everyone predicted. I don't even want to waste my breath digging through old posts written by absolute idiots or those CIA shills on this forum. And look, if we're pretending sanctions against Russia have some massive long-term impact, shouldn't we also admit that losing access to cheap energy is going to have its own long-term consequences?

Sure, why not? Let's just go into massive debt and bury ourselves in it. I'm sure the next generation will be more than happy to pick up the tab. 🎉

Joshua Myers432 said:A declining GDP growth rate is a downward spiral, and it ends in a recession. A growth rate of 0.3% is absolute garbage. Honestly, even rates around 3% are crap when you consider the debt levels and the interest rates attached to them. The US should be "growing" at 1.3% for 2023—so either that number is total trash, or you're just a mouthpiece for the Republican Party.

Joshua Myers432 said:So, we've seen a slide from February 2022 until now. The real question is whether Germany is going to slip into a full-blown recession or manage to hold steady. I am seeing a tiny glimmer of optimism lately, though.🙂

Nathan Thomas12 said:Money and economics are always the priority.
The Russian economy is basically being propped up by a massive state deficit—once that dries up, we’ll see just how much those sanctions actually bite.
Sure, the EU isn't at war, but do me a favor and give me some actual data—how much has the EU economy dropped? Give me something measurable, like GDP.

Noah Diaz said:Russia and Ukraine are currently at war, so it isn’t exactly shocking that their economies aren't their top priority right now.

The European Union isn't at war, so tell me: why on earth would anyone sabotage their own economy? I get the feeling there is a concerted effort to tear down the EU's financial stability and trigger a crisis reminiscent of what happened nearly a century ago.

goldenpuma84 said:The guy I was citing argued that China buying up Russian energy proves they're just exploiting the situation for profit rather than being "friendly." So, I asked how American leaders treat their European allies when they sell them energy at five times the price—what kind of relationship is that? And my answer was just that it's simply "market principles."

So why isn't it considered "the market" when China and India buy oil and gas, but instead it's called exploitation?...

goldenpuma84 said:Major price hikes are coming on March 1st, 2023.

Take a look at your utility bills from Duke Energy...

What happens when the Government's relief measures expire on March 31st, 2023?

Just because the European Union managed to scrape by through one mild winter doesn't mean they've fixed the systemic issue of energy demand versus supply.

Honestly, the European Union hasn't even begun to address the core problem...

I couldn't care less about the Russian deficit. I'm just worried about what life is going to look like for the average American soon...

Noah Diaz said:War isn't about cash flow; it’s about raw resources. That is the only logic that matters here. This conflict won't end until one side runs completely dry. Right now, Ukraine is looking much closer to that breaking point.

So, when America sells weapons to its NATO allies, what exactly are we calling that? Is it just an act of love? Or when those last few war profiteers turn around and hike up gas prices—or even blow up energy infrastructure—what’s the label then? Friendship, maybe? 😁

Smuggling is rampant when dealing with European Union or G7 nations, yet trade with countries like India or China is actually booming, reaching volumes even higher than last year.