Posts by analogbear5

bluemason3 said:How exactly would satellites track that? As far as I know, satellites aren't really built to detect things deep underwater—unless there’s some classified tech out there we haven't heard about yet. Usually, they just monitor surface activity, ports, and stuff like that, then make educated guesses from there.

In the ocean, you're still most likely looking at some kind of acoustic detection.🤔

Plus, most detection methods seem to rely on a submarine actually moving. If a nuclear sub positions itself strategically and just sits silent at depth, what exactly is going to pick it up?🤔

There’s this recurring theme on this forum—the idea that Americans have these supernatural abilities to detect everything everywhere, and all the Ukrainians have to do is press a button.

“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”
—Isaac Asimov

The whole "sufficiently advanced" part is pretty subjective. Once you cross that line in someone's mind, they think anything is possible.

rowdytiger13 said:They aren't allies; they're just trading partners.
True allies are the countries in NATO, because they’ve actually committed to defending one another militarily.
Russia doesn't have allies. It just has a colony, sort of like Belarus.

Still, you managed to sell the idea that they have these "massive economic and trade ties," which is honestly a joke. Pure fantasy. Just take a quick look at the actual import and export percentages.

66% of Russians are dreading mobilization (Pew Research Center). Back in February, when Putin first kicked off the military operation, that number was sitting at 28%.

Back then, most people were still buying what the president was selling—the whole "it's just professionals" pitch. So, when the partial mobilization decree actually hit, it triggered a massive wave of negative vibes among Americans:

- anxiety, fear, pure terror (47%),
- shock (23%),
- anger and resentment (13%),
- depression (11%),
- shame (5%).

The positive side? Not exactly a party:
- 23% felt some pride,
- 6% felt joy or inspiration.

Because of all this, support for peace talks has climbed to 48%, while those insisting the operation keeps going has dropped to 44%.

In August, things looked totally different. Maybe that support will dip even further once more bad news trickles in from the front lines.

Even now, the number of people who think the operation is actually succeeding has slid down to 53% (compared to 73% back in May).

At the same time, cutting production in Russia frees up workers in the oil and gas sectors for mobilization .

Kate Cook27 said:It means they’ll finally be able to claim they brought Russian territory back to the motherland: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. We're just waiting on Odesa, Kharkiv, and Kyiv—the heart of it all 😁 😁.

That also implies those regions are officially part of Russia according to The Kremlin—just like Crimea. So, does an American strike on Red Crimea still count as a red line, or is that off the table now?

Nathan Evans78 said:In your opinion, how much of what you just listed is actually driven by the sanctions from the EU and the USA? Could you try to break that down in percentages for me?

No clue.

Kate Cook27 said:But what's the actual reason behind the delay?

- He’d basically be admitting the whole operation isn't going according to plan—making mobilization the "Plan B."
- It's an unpopular move. Most people are still backing the war based on what they see on the news; this makes them feel the actual cost personally.
- Putin is notoriously careful about public support—for some reason, he's clearly not looking to end up like Gaddafi.
- Domestic propaganda hasn't quite managed to rally enough people to actually volunteer for the front lines.
- The demographic most likely to get drafted first—the rural, lower-income folks and those with prior military service—is already tapped out.
- Pulling workers out of the economy when businesses still have to cover payroll is a massive hit.
- Equipment shortages and extra strain on the supply chain.
- Blowing a hole in the budget when things are already in the red.
- Even now, it's just a "partial" mobilization. A full-scale draft would crank the stakes way up.

Joshua Myers432 said:How is that a desperate move? If the other side has already mobilized everyone who can walk or crawl, what choice do you have left?

He probably knows his troops aren't elite, but let's be real—it's not like these Ukrainian conscripts are some kind of Navy SEALs either.

My take—purely subjective, obviously—is that Putin dragged his feet on mobilization for a reason. People were talking about the necessity of it back in the spring, and he knew exactly what he was doing by waiting.

Now that it’s actually happening, it feels rushed and poorly timed. The bureaucratic machinery needed for this hasn't really been functional since those half-baked reforms back in '09, and anyone with even basic training is already halfway to the front lines in Ukraine.

The fallout from this mobilization is going to hit the economy hard, too. It puts a massive strain on the social contract typical of autocratic regimes: we give you freedom, you ensure our survival. When that breaks, everything breaks.

wiredtiger8 said:And honestly? I don't think Putin even thinks he's losing.

The mobilization itself is just a desperate move. Whether or not he actually believes it’ll turn the tide—that's irrelevant.

quietcobra21 said:I don't think anyone's suggesting it’s worth throwing $11 billion down the drain just so Germans can buy coal briquettes from Russians. Nobody is claiming there isn't a direct link between Germany's need for cheap gas and what Russia is exporting.

Look, if Putin doesn't care about sending hundreds of thousands of his own people to die, he definitely isn't sweating an $11 billion loss.

Lost time is worth way more than that money. But when you're fighting a losing war, your thinking starts getting pretty short-sighted.

quietcobra21 said:From what I gather, Russia uses the NS1 and NS2 pipelines to sell gas to the European Union, and they use that cash to fund the war in Ukraine. No pipeline means no gas sales, which means no money for the war. Why would Russia cut off the very branch they’re sitting on?
If someone were actually going to blow up a pipeline, wouldn't it make more sense to hit the one running from Norway toward Poland? That way, they force the European Union to play ball on everything—from energy prices to how much weaponry gets sent to Ukraine. The fewer alternatives you have, the more you're forced to compromise. Simple math.
For years, the Americans have been telling the European Union—specifically the Germans—that they're too dependent on Russian gas and need to scale back. Now, it looks like the "nice" approach failed, so they're doing it the hard way. You even have that Polish politician publicly thanking the Americans for liberating them from Russian gas. I'm assuming the guy is sane and better informed than everyone on this forum combined. Etc, etc. But sure, let's all just pretend Martians did it instead.

Just because Germany was dependent on Russian gas doesn't mean Russia isn't equally reliant on selling that gas to Germany—especially since they've already stopped using it themselves. Just as a reminder, gas exports are pretty much on par with coal briquette exports:

Back in school, they drilled it into my head that lower density always means things float to the top—regardless of what the pressure is doing.

Sorry, pressure drops were the first thing I caught wind of. Here’s how it went down:

Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

September 26th
- 02:03 local time—seismograph picks up a 2.3 magnitude tremor on the
Richter
scale - Germans reporting pressure drops
- 19:03—another one, 2.1 magnitude

Terry Green3 said:It might not even be a "hole." The explosion could have completely shredded an entire section of the pipeline. Looking at the sea surface in those photos, maybe it’s just a massive gap on both sides. By the way, the Danes updated their estimates; they aren't looking at a week or two of leaking anymore. They expect everything to be out by Sunday.
Regarding what Richter recorded, it might not be the primary blast (the explosive itself) but rather a secondary explosion caused by the pressurized mixture inside the gas line. Physics gets messy here: internal pipeline pressure, ocean pressure at that depth, the specific gas mixture used to pressurize the line, and so on.
There's going to be plenty of work for the forensic experts.

In Nord Stream 1, the pressure plummeted from 105 down to 7 bar overnight right before the explosion.

What if the Germans decide they’ve had enough of being told what to do by the "bosses"?

If the Americans pulled this move right now, then honestly, they should stick to their guns.

But if they actually did... man, that would be one hell of a massive blunder—basically just making life harder for themselves.

I’m honestly betting on the ultimate cosmic joke played on a species that thinks it knows everything—the idea that the pipe actually leaked because of low internal pressure. See, the pressure in Nord Stream 2 plummeted from 105 down to just 7 bars in a tiny window of time two days ago.

Putting a tampon in an open wound has to be one of the dumbest things I've heard lately.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Legally speaking, he’s a total traitor too.

Legally? Nah.

Just swap out "legally" for "in my opinion."

Matthew Young35 said:In other words, are you trying to say that a potential nuclear war is just smoke and mirrors, and would cause fewer problems than Chernobyl?

You are living in a total fantasy land.

Nah, that’s not what he said. Read it again—slowly this time—and give it another shot.

Lisa Jackson7 said:Right here... a decent little haiku. ☕

Someone who’s talked about nothing but sports since 2013, went ghost in 2016, and suddenly decides today is the day to pop back up.

How convenient 👍