Posts by George Robinson43

Carl Lee27 said:That 2.2% drop for last year? Honestly, that’s just an estimate. It feels like they’re dragging their feet on releasing the actual data because, if you look at all the indicators, things started taking a massive dive back in December. I was expecting the numbers to drop just yesterday! But look, it's pretty obvious what's happening: the private sector is shrinking fast, while government spending is spiking—which is basically why the overall GDP contraction looks so minimal. If anyone actually thinks this can keep going indefinitely, well, good luck to them, I guess.

I can already see new taxes on the horizon. Once the war in Ukraine escalates any further, those reserves are going to dry up incredibly fast.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...-report-a80172

One must consider this:
report-a80172 Quote : Russia Survived The head of Russia’s Central Bank said in December that US GDP would contract Just 3 % in 2022 , while President Joe Biden predicted a drop of 2.5%.

The Russian economy and its data are simply whatever Putin says they should be.
If Putin declares a -2.2% contraction, then -2.2% it shall be!

Noah Diaz said:I only asked that as a joke (smirk), because I already know exactly what’s happening, where, and how.

It looks like Russia is cutting off sales to the European Union, so they'll be shipping Ural over to Asia at whatever local prices they can grab there.

To whom exactly? Think of it this way: there is such a thing as the Nelson Index. Refineries that specialize in light crude distillation without the capacity to process heavy residues are going to see that index tank once Ural becomes the standard.
Furthermore, shipping from the Baltic Sea or the Black Sea all the way to China isn't exactly a cheap endeavor! It's hard to see how they can possibly substitute Arabian crude—which sells for roughly the same price but involves much shorter routes and avoids those pesky transit fees through Bab el Mandeb.

Noah Diaz said:What exactly are Sokol and ESPO? As for Urals, that's moved via tankers 😁

Think of ESPO and Sokol as light crude blends from Eastern Siberia that flow toward Asian markets via the ESPO pipeline straight to the port of Kozmina.
In contrast, Urals is a heavier grade, much like Brent, typically destined for Western markets where specialized refineries are equipped to handle it.
For Urals to reach the ESPO market, it must be shipped from ports connected to the Urals blend pipelines—specifically Novorossiysk and the Baltic Sea—and even then, it's strictly limited to refineries capable of processing heavy residues, otherwise, the economics simply don't add up.

Noah Diaz said:What are we looking at on the Asian markets right now? Maybe $50? 😁

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/
ESPO: $68.56
Sokol: $72.94

The core issue lies right here:
2019/20:

Urals blend
6.2 million barrels per day from Western Siberia
2.5 million from the Ural/Volga fields
The remainder - 900,000 barrels near Arkhangelsk, the Caspian Sea, and the Arctic

ESPO & sokol blends
1.3 million barrels per day from Eastern Siberia and the Far East

Urals - 9.6 million barrels per day
ESPO & sokol - 1.3 million barrels per day

More than half of the people living in BRICS nations endure poverty and squalor, yet they are poised to oversee global resources and trade routes. 🙏 🙏

Let’s not overlook the sheer power of the Elbrus; it’s a processor sitting thirty years ahead of the curve. 🤣
Back in 2014, those social media bots were already hailing it as a total game-changer.

Now that they're getting production plants up and running in Russia, it's going to absolutely dominate the market.

dustyowl29 said:It doesn't matter where they are—the boss is in the States.
So, just to set the record straight—Samsung actually produces its gear in Vietnam, not Korea.
Most of the tech we use every day—you know, all that high-end electronics—is actually manufactured halfway across the world in places like China, Singapore, Malaysia, or India.
Cheap raw materials and dirt-cheap labor—we’re talking about three times less expensive than what we're used to here.
So, it looks like Apple is finally planning to pull the plug on their current setup—they’re looking at moving both Foxconn and their entire production line out West. Honestly, it was probably only a matter of time before they started making this kind of move.
Even if Vietnam counts as a Western ally—which is a stretch, let's be honest—China certainly isn't.

Keep in mind, Foxconn isn't actually an Apple company.
They are a Taiwanese firm that handles assembly, and yes, they are planning to shift much of their manufacturing from China to places like Mexico, Vietnam, or Brazil. However, the primary driver isn't just US-China tensions; it's simply that Chinese labor is becoming too expensive!
That kind of massive shift doesn't happen overnight, though.

An economic wizard and expert on the subject of "How to keep a state trapped in a long-term recession while everything around you is booming" claims that sanctions actually work and aren't foolish at all.
So, where does that leave us?

Winter simply cannot stop ExxonMobil! They are set to pump 100 billion cubic meters toward the East in 2023—purely through the air! 😉

electricsurfer47 said:Just a little thought on processors—stuff even the Russians can't actually manufacture, despite how much they claim they designed them themselves.

I vividly remember when those RT/Sputnik bots were flooding online forums, claiming how much the Mount Elbrus chips would dominate the market. 🙏 🙏
As it turns out, they can't even manage to build them.

It wasn't just about avoiding diversification; the real goal was pushing Nord Stream 2 so that all that Russian gas would flow straight into Europe through Germany, ensuring Germany alone reaps every cent from transit fees.
A tiny bit of supply from Russia could have easily moved through the Turkish pipeline, and that would have been plenty.
The Germans were essentially trying to hold the entire EU hostage while playing ball with the Russians. That was their master plan.

What absolute amateurs.
They charge foreigners a premium, then the second the cash dries up, they come crawling back to them for help. 🤮

Morgan Wright5 said:I suspect those figures you provided for Saudi Arabia are a bit on the low side.

🙂
Actually, they might be slightly lower since I wasn't looking directly at the chart data! lol



The last time SA hit 12 million was back in 2020.

Timothy Nelson5 said:Then you’ve got all these recessionary hints, China dealing with COVID...
The Saudi leadership has been playing a sneaky game with the West, cutting production right when the crisis hit hardest... even that senile Biden went there in person to practically beg them to ramp up, but they just brushed him off.
Back then, Trump—being the statesman he is—just posted on Twitter that Saudi Arabia needs to boost oil production because of those hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and they did it without even blinking.
Now, I guess American fracking might see a resurgence, and honestly, the green energy crowd could probably stop dodging accountability for their part in this mess and start focusing on policies that actually matter...

All in all, natural gas might just tank before summer hits.
And oil will likely follow suit.

As for Russian prices, the West can always make sure they stay well below market rates. Even if Putin tried his absolute hardest, he couldn't change that. 😁

Let’s be honest here. This is the actual oil production in Saudi Arabia for 2022:
January: 10.16 million barrels
February: 10.2 million
March: 10.3 million
April: 10.42 million
May: 10.55 million
June: 10.62 million
July: 10.82 million
August: 11.3 million
September: 11.1 million
October: 10.8 million

The talk of production cuts only started because everyone was forecasting a recession, seeing orders drop from China, and wanting to prevent a price collapse.
November: 10.45 million

Biden requested 12 million per day, but he was told it wasn't necessary—meaning prices are headed down, and the Arabs were right all along.
I am almost certain prices would be under $60 if Americans weren't busy refilling the strategic reserves.

Sean Reed3 said:Are you talking about the infected bats from the Ukrainian biolabs?

Exactly! They flew right over the Rocky Mountains, soared across Alaska, and headed straight through the Gobi Desert toward Chinese markets, landing right among the raccoons and snakes.
As soon as they arrived, the Chinese people went absolutely wild searching for them and started gorging themselves.
And now, look at the mess they're in.
It’s quite simple: those Ukrainian people completely ruined the gas and oil exports to China with their little bat problem.

It looks like the Chinese government has started cutting back on those energy imports again, so we can kiss those "massive" hydrocarbon orders goodbye.

It seems they’ve finally hit the "sell to anyone, regardless of the currency" stage of the game, hasn't it?
Russia has never looked more dominant while the West struggles through freezing temperatures and food shortages. ☕

George Robinson43 said:Brent has dipped to $81, but we really need to see how the market reacts on May 12th.
I wouldn't rule out a minor shock followed by a rally.

I got burned. It just keeps dropping and dropping and dropping.
WTI is at $71, Brent is at $76... and that powerful Ural is hovering around $50.

I have to hand it to the turkeys; they were spot on when they told Americans there was no need to ramp up production. They knew demand would fall right along with prices, and once things bottomed out, the US would simply boost demand by refilling its strategic reserves.🙏
It’s clear the professionals know exactly what they’re doing.

Brent has dipped to $81, but we really need to see how the market reacts on May 12th.
I wouldn't rule out a minor shock followed by a rally.

analogbear5 said:Back to the main point—what’s your take on where the Russian military-industrial complex is headed, and what does the future look like for their arms exports?

Who in their right mind would purchase equipment that either explodes mid-flight or falls straight out of the sky?
In fact, I suspect Western manufacturers will simply ramp up production of older models that were already slated for retirement, provided they can secure enough orders.