Posts by rowdypilot53

Russ sees Ukraine as its own sphere of influence, essentially its backyard, and they have no desire to see a hostile government taking root there. We saw the domino effect triggered by Maidan, though the friction has been constant since the collapse of the USSR...

Ukraine won't win this war with the current level of aid. I can only hope the actual support exceeds what is being publicized. A dozen Boeing vehicles and perhaps 200 howitzers simply won't shift the needle. The reality is that Russia maintains the initiative, artillery superiority, and air dominance with fewer than 200,000 troops on the ground, and they seem in no hurry at all. If things remain as they are, I doubt they will stop at the Donbas; I am convinced their targets include Odessa and much of the East, provided they have the capacity...

The Russians are certainly taking losses, but in a country of that size, finding replacements for the dead and wounded is manageable. Compared to the scale of their nation, these numbers are relatively small.

As for whether the West will send more weapons—I certainly hope so. It is surprising that more hasn't arrived by now. I had higher expectations for those smaller drones; they seem like the perfect tool for picking apart the Russian artillery that drives their offensive power. If you can knock out ten howitzers and Boeing units every single day, even their resources will feel the strain, especially when they can't strike without fearing a drone payload. Either the Ukrainians lack sufficient drones, they aren't effective enough, or Russian electronic warfare is proving quite capable...

One also wonders about the fall and winter. Logically, Russia's leverage should increase due to energy supplies. However, based on how much Putin mentioned sanctions in his speech yesterday, it is clear they are still stinging...

Russia must be stopped in Ukraine. Not because I believe they have the strength to push further, but because we cannot allow the precedent of non-aggression being ignored for territorial conquest. Regime changes might be survivable, and separatism might be managed, but this is pure aggression aimed at annexation and the erasure of a sovereign nation...

Richard Wilson4 said:I say that about basically every topic.

Zelensky speaks Russian, the Azov battalion speaks Russian, and most of the guys fighting on the ground in Ukraine are Russian speakers.

So yeah, these people aren't looking to join up with Russia.

And who would actually choose Russia over the West? Perhaps just some old men nostalgic for the USSR...

But is it Volodymyr Zelenskyy or Volodymir?

Sam Alvarez4 said:The nukes are only mentioned because some paranoid KGB relic thinks everyone is terrified of his arsenal... while conveniently forgetting everyone else has them too.

Of course I identify and empathize with Ukrainians. Absolutely. I’m certainly not going to pretend to be some online warrior who feels the exact same way about people in Afghanistan or Iraq versus Ukrainians. I don't, and I won't fake it.

The only time I react the same way is when it comes to children. Because they aren't Iraqi, or Afghan, or Ukrainian... they're just children.

Why don't you feel the same for Iraqis or Afghans as you do for Ukrainians? They are all just regular people suffering through war.

Olivia Stewart2 said:It appears that Putin's strategy is to utilize war to force Ukraine into some sort of new agreement, perhaps something akin to Minsk III, which would be significantly more favorable to Russia—essentially a "Finlandization" of Ukraine. However, for that to work, he needs a living Zelenskyy; an agreement can only be signed with a democratically elected representative of the Ukrainian people, not with some installed puppet. His plan likely involves encircling Kyiv and other major cities to then organize negotiations. At that point, everyone starts playing their strongest cards. Entering these cities will, by all accounts, trigger intense guerrilla warfare and result in heavy casualties on both sides, though one has to ask who actually benefits from that. Politically, it hurts Putin, as the Russian people may eventually turn against him once they see the mounting number of Russian soldiers returning home in body bags from an unjust war. Zelenskyy emerges as a Ukrainian hero and secures his place in history, yet simultaneously, it remains a Pyrrhic victory, leaving behind nothing but leveled cities and a massive toll of civilian lives.....

The Ukrainians might not be able to win outright, but their negotiating position strengthens with every day they resist. That said, if they truly had the will to fight to the bitter end like in WWII, Russia wouldn't stand a chance with the forces they've mobilized. When we faced our own conflicts back in the day, we weren't facing this level of scale; you can't just conquer a nation with such limited numbers if the entire population is truly committed to fighting. Personally, I think the power balance in our domestic struggles in the early 90s was even worse—our forces were basically hunting clubs with Kalashnikovs and sneakers, while the military opposing us was packed with heavy tech. Ukraine, however, is armed to the teeth, even if it's mostly light and anti-tank weaponry, though they have heavy gear too. Air superiority isn't everything in urban combat. I'm ruling out nukes; the Russians aren't going to drop an atomic bomb on Kyiv.

But the real question is how much the rest of the world actually wants to fight. The people there are likely quite disillusioned; the corruption is staggering, and since 2014, life has only gotten harder. Beyond national pride, I don't see a clear vision for a better life that makes the struggle worth it. For many, things remain the same—the poor stay poor and die, while the oligarchs are already safe with their wealth. If they manage to defend themselves, they really ought to strip those oligarchs of their power immediately.

One more thing: their politicians are a disaster—not just the current ones, but all of them. Just a series of corrupt puppets, whether for Russia or the West, who led the country into this mess. Politics is the art of the possible. Looking back, you realize just how cunning and capable leaders like Marshall were when navigating international relations...

Tyler Jones6 said:Ukraine didn't provoke anyone; according to Putin, the mere existence of Ukraine is cause enough for war. When a dictator from a larger nation views a smaller neighbor that way, I suppose neutrality doesn't help at all.

Ukraine was militarily neutral until the annexation of Crimea.

Ukraine isn't the issue; Russia is the issue.

The folks in Moldova (Transnistria), Georgia (Abkhazia and Ossetia), and Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh) seem to realize that.

Russia feels so threatened that it attacks tiny nations with populations smaller than Moscow's. ☕

Ukraine is fighting for its future now—this struggle will decide whether they become a "Belarus" or a "Poland."☕

How naive. Ukraine isn't the problem, but the USA is. Does anyone honestly believe Ukraine wouldn't have joined NATO after the 2014 coup?

Respect to the Ukrainians for refusing to bow down to brute force...

However, the roots of this conflict aren't quite so simple. As someone pointed out, this is essentially a confrontation between Russia and the USA, where the US fights via proxies. Looking back, it all traces back to Bush's push for Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO in 2008; we are seeing the fallout now, with both Georgia and Ukraine being torn apart. My view is that the US has been pursuing a rather insidious policy toward Russia for a long time, ranging from supporting Chechens in the Caucasus wars—long before terrorism became a primary US concern—to various other matters involving Syria, Libya, and Nord Stream. To be fair, Russia isn't unique here; all major powers play the same game. The US is certainly profiting from this, as Russia will inevitably become an enemy to Ukraine, leaving Russian borders more vulnerable. Who knows what the long-term outlook holds, but the world will undoubtedly become a more unstable and dangerous place. A Russia that is economically devastated might actually pose an even greater threat to global stability...

In my opinion, only genuine cooperation and mutual respect between superpowers can lead to a stable world, though that seems unlikely even in the 21st century. Unfortunately, it's ordinary people, currently Ukrainians, who pay the price.

Sam Alvarez4 said:Some might see it as mere symbolism, but it really isn't. You only light up the Eiffel Tower when there's actual state backing behind it...

France is reaching its breaking point here, and honestly, nobody wants to see that happen—especially since France has those nukes too!

Regarding the whole SWIFT situation, I actually posted about it yesterday...
The French Minister of Economy, Le Maire, has already weighed in on it.

Why does everyone keep bringing up nukes? No one is actually going to drop them over Ukraine—not the Russians, not anyone else. Honestly, how is this any different from what happened in Iraq or Libya? Maybe it's just because the Ukrainians look like us, or because they're part of the West and a democracy, so we feel more empathy and are even willing to take in refugees. International law is mostly a myth; superpowers simply do whatever suits their interests unless another superpower stops them. It’s strange that people are acting so surprised now...

If the Ukrainians intend to put up a fight, there aren't enough Russians here to conquer the country. We aren't seeing advanced hardware, just Soviet-era tech from the seventies; air superiority is the only thing missing, but that doesn't change much in urban combat.

It’s only day three, and you don't seize that much territory in such a short window. My sense is that the Russians will reach Kyiv within the next few days... whether they actually take the city and head straight to negotiations or descend into brutal street fighting remains to be seen.

Tyler Jones6 said:Poland has essentially gone all-in on Ukraine—it seems they’re one of the few nations that truly understands that what happens there is actually a defense of multiple countries against a future invasion by a manic Putin. Their truck convoys are already rolling with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry.

Kudos to Poland; frankly, some other countries should be embarrassed by their hesitation and perhaps try taking a page out of Poland's book.

What were they waiting for during those previous eight years?

velvetmason14 said:Two days ago, Srna said this: Darijo Srna: Ukraine is like a second home to me, there's no way I'm leaving.

Fast forward to today, and here is the update: Srna and Vukojević have left Kyiv.

I'll let you guys draw your own conclusions.

It seems to me that what Srna actually said in the article doesn't match that headline...

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